Assuming the timeline stays about the same as what it was (draws remain identical despite different seeings, injuries happen at the same time, bad form/off days still happen as they did, etc)...
(Listing all R4+ times)
Australia
07: Loses a close one to Rafa, who promptly goes out to Gonzalez. I wouldn't necessarily make Murray the favorite over Roddick, Haas, and Gonzalez. Let alone in a row. Low chance.
09: Verdasco loss.
10: Question is if Hewitt, Davydenko, or Tsonga could stop Murray. I'd say he probably takes it, but it's not a guarantee by any means. Let's be generous and say he takes it.
11-13: Takes it.
14: Tsonga/Dimitrov/Stan in a row? Murray isn't unstoppable. I say at the very least to be realistic, we don't give him this one.
15: Honest 50/50 with Stan.
16: I don't see Murray losing to Nishikori/Berdych, so let's be generous (I'll be saying this a lot, don't worry, I'm keeping track).
17: Nope.
France
09,10,12,17: Nope.
11: Needs to get past Soderling, then Monfils/Gasquet/Delpo/Fognini/Wawrinka? I could see it, but I don't think it's guaranteed. However, he did push Rafa and Novak to 3rd sets in 2 Masters that year and I have no reason why the others would succeed over him necessarily. +1 slam, but I'm being generous again.
14: I don't think he gets past Ferrer. Ferrer took a set off Nadal while Murray got taken to 5 by Monfils. This year on clay left a lot to be desired. Ferrer takes 2014.
15: Stan probably still gets the win. Would be tough to play against that guy on that day.
16: I think Murray gets this one. Wouldn't be a straight set affair against Thiem, but he'd win in 4.
Great Britain (oh boy)
06, 09, 14, 17: Non-Big 4 losses, nothing really to note. He'd lose anyway.
08: I can't see Murray falling before the final, where he'd face Safin/Ancic/Hewitt. Could be tough, but I can see him doing it. Let's be generous. +1.
10: It's 50/50 against Berdych, if he gets past Soderling, but let's assume 50/50.
11: Delpo/Fish and then Tsonga. Tough one, but generosity again. +1.
12: He wins.
15: Murray would be the favorite, but there's still 2 matches (semi and final), and he didn't show much more fight vs Fed than Gasquet vs Novak or Simon against Federer. 50/50 at best.
USA
06, 09, 13, 15, 16: Various non-Big 4 losses.
08: Do Fish and Roddick stop him? Probably not. Be generous here. +1.
11: Cilic/Tipsarevic/Tsonga in the final and Roddick in the semi? At this point, that's probably a win too. I suppose we'll be generous again. +1
14: Well, Nishikori beat a Novak (in 4) that beat him (in 4). I'm going to just say probably not. Especially since Cilic beat that same guy (in straights).
In total: +3.5 (or 5.5) AOs, +1 (or 2) RGs, +2 (or 4) Wimbledons, +0 (or 2) USOs. That's +6.5 at least by my calculations (I think about 9 or 10 slams is reasonable), and up to 13.5 at absolute maximum. That isn't even to mention the possibility of shock losses (which do happen) so 9-10 is probably much more reasonable than anything above 10.
My similar list (3+):
Murray 13
Agassi 10
Roddick 7
Wawrinka 6
Delpo 5
Thiem 5
Hewitt 4
Medvedev 4
Soderling 3
Ferrer 3
Cilic 3
(There are a few 2 timers, but it's tough to know exactly where to stop or what to count, so I left them off. Tsitsipas and Zverev were almost in though, might get in by the time Nadal and Djokovic are done. Sad to have to leave Berdych/Tsonga off too - they could've been on, but also could have not. It's tough to say, you could make a case for either. But I think 2+ for sure.)
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