In retrospect the result should come as no surprise

[weakera]

By every metric and statistic, Medvedev was in far superior form to Djokovic in this tourney. It wasn't even close really.

People (including myself to a degree) mostly brushed off Djokovic's dropped sets throughout the tournament and assumed he would flip the switch when he neared the finish line. But in retrospect the result should have been obvious and easy to predict. People get blinded by the big-3 aura.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

By every metric and statistic, Medvedev was in far superior form to Djokovic in this tourney. It wasn't even close really.

People (including myself to a degree) mostly brushed off Djokovic's dropped sets throughout the tournament and assumed he would flip the switch when he neared the finish line. But in retrospect the result should have been obvious and easy to predict. People get blinded by the big-3 aura.

I totally agree with this. I’m not that shocked to be honest. Meddy was better all tournament in most stats and how he navigated through his draw. He’s a great hard court player and has more majors in him I feel.

 

[ForehandCross]

Actually in retrospect, what happened today was supposed to happen and was about to happen in AO.

Med folded mentally so it turned into a reverse beat down.

 

[James P]

Actually in retrospect, what happened today was supposed to happen and was about to happen in AO.

Med folded mentally so it turned into a reverse beat down.

I even concede this point.

 

[Spencer Gore]

At some point the slow starts in matches catch up with you.

 

[Bartelby]

Slows starts equal long matches against the toughest opponents. Novak's tournament ended with Zev. The rest was an unhappy epilogue for his fans. More glory to Russia, apparently.

 

[weakera]

At some point the slow starts in matches catch up with you.

It wasn't only slow starts though. Rune and Zverev got him after the first set. He just wasn't in great form at all. Numbers revealed this, same with Nadal's clay season.

 

[Rudiiii]

Then again, that umpire call on Djokovic's break points during second set was ********. So many missed easy storkes at the emd of second and begginining of third set were the keys of Djokovic's loss. He has beaten himself here, but guess it got to him for all those clutch points during the season. Med played great, won't deny that, very good match from his side as Djokovic literally had no easy points during whole match

 

[PilotPete]

And let's face it, the last set only got to 6-4 because of the crowd.

 

[GabeT]

Wasn’t Med also playing better in the run up to the AO final?

 

[ND-13]

What happened today should have happened 5 years back. It is just that we have generations of useless talent, compared to big 3.

 

[AO13]

Yes, Medvedev played better tournie and was better player in the final. He DID have hell of a weaker draw, but you still have to win those matches.

And yet, Novak had his chances, but he blew every one of them away. The pressure finally caught up to him. If he broke Medvedev's serve on the start of second set, this match would have still be active and who knows what the result would be. Probably Novak in 5.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

By every metric and statistic, Medvedev was in far superior form to Djokovic in this tourney. It wasn't even close really.

People (including myself to a degree) mostly brushed off Djokovic's dropped sets throughout the tournament and assumed he would flip the switch when he neared the finish line. But in retrospect the result should have been obvious and easy to predict. People get blinded by the big-3 aura.

Yes, this is what I have been saying for the past two days. Stats matter. That was then, this is now was my response to those who felt the past was going to predict the outcome. Medvedev was playing better than Djokovic in this particular tournament.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

Djokovic had spent 5 hours more than Medvedev on his way to the final. Medvedev had only dropped one set, and Djokovic had dropped six. Stats matter.

 

[ibbi]

By every metric and statistic, Medvedev was in far superior form to Djokovic in this tourney. It wasn't even close really.

People (including myself to a degree) mostly brushed off Djokovic's dropped sets throughout the tournament and assumed he would flip the switch when he neared the finish line. But in retrospect the result should have been obvious and easy to predict. People get blinded by the big-3 aura.

We brushed it off because the same was true in Australia. He had one minor hiccup but otherwise cruised to the final unbeaten. Novak struggled basically the whole way. Look what happened.

 

[weakera]

We brushed it off because the same was true in Australia. He had one minor hiccup but otherwise cruised to the final unbeaten. Novak struggled basically the whole way. Look what happened.

What happened is Medvedev imploded mentally. Not so today, and he was rock solid in New York all the way.

 

[slipgrip93]

I saw some of Medevedev's earlier round matches of the tournament, and his game and strokes looked sharp and consistent and I thought he could have a chance against Djoke this time, if he didn't have letdown periods and unenforced errors that often happened with mugs affected by the "aura" and worn down after multiple sets.

 

[Bartelby]

Djokovic exploded physically today, and you can't win a slam with an exhausted body.

What happened is Medvedev imploded mentally. Not so today, and he was rock solid in New York all the way.

 

[weakera]

Djokovic exploded physically today, and you can't win a slam with an exhausted body.

I'll let you know when Djokovic breaks down from exhaustion. Haven't seen it in like 12 years and certainly didn't see it today.

 

[Hamnavoe]

Going into the final Med was sitting at 64.6% games won on North American hard courts in 2021. Those are slam winning numbers.

The AO final was an anomaly in a rivalry where the matches are generally pretty close. This time it was Djokovic who was below par with Medvedev in fine form and the win was straightforward.

 

[ibbi]

What happened is Medvedev imploded mentally. Not so today, and he was rock solid in New York all the way.

Hmm, I think they’re similar matches in a lot of ways. I think today’s mental implosion was way bigger than any Medvedev had, but you have to give credit to the winner in each case. They would not be denied in spite of everything everyone thought.

He said during the Australia run that he wasn’t going to give it to them but make them work their ass off for it, and today we saw that happen.

 

[Bartelby]

You must have had a splinter in your eye today because it was plain for all to see. Too much time spent getting past tough opponents equals failure in a slam.

I'll let you know when Djokovic breaks down from exhaustion. Haven't seen it in like 12 years and certainly didn't see it today.

 

[Bartelby]

What mental implosion happened today exactly?

Hmm, I think they’re similar matches in a lot of ways. I think today’s mental implosion was way bigger than any Medvedev had, but you have to give credit to the winner in each case. They would not be denied in spite of everything everyone thought.

He said during the Australia run that he wasn’t going to give it to them but make them work their ass off for it, and today we saw that happen.

 

[Subway Tennis]

By every metric and statistic, Medvedev was in far superior form to Djokovic in this tourney. It wasn't even close really.

People (including myself to a degree) mostly brushed off Djokovic's dropped sets throughout the tournament and assumed he would flip the switch when he neared the finish line. But in retrospect the result should have been obvious and easy to predict. People get blinded by the big-3 aura.

I will add myself to this list. I thought Medvedev would have no chance, unless Djokovic fell victim to nerves and completely imploded.

As it turned out it wasnt Djokovic at his best but Medvedev's level completely shocked me. He was incredible.

The Big 3 aura was part of why i thought Djok would win, but the other factors were Djokovic specific: normally Novak's level goes even higher in big moments, and the other big factor for me was the perception that Djokovic was a nightmare matchup for Med, particulalry in Bo5.

Lesson learned! One of the All-time greatest major final performances from Med in this final for sure.

 

[NoleFam]

ESPN said Djokovic ran 12 more miles this tournament than Medvedev. That adds up and Med had a cupcake draw, but sometimes you need a little luck to win Slams. In fact, both the women's and men's tournaments ended with the players with the tougher draw losing. Plus Djokovic was nervous going for history. It was Medvedev's tournament and it just worked out for him at the end.

 

[ibbi]

What mental implosion happened today exactly?

The mental implosion where the guy was tight as a drum and could barely make simple shots he should put away in his sleep. Maybe mental implosion is not the right word. Choked might be more appropriate.

 

[Bartelby]

These are indeed the facts. Djokovic lost the event at the draw. But that's the reality of a slam.

ESPN said Djokovic ran 12 more miles this tournament than Medvedev. Med had a cupcake draw and sometimes you need a little luck to win Slams. IN fact, both the women's and men's tournaments ended with the players with the tougher draw losing. Plus Djokovic was nervous going for history. It was Medvedev's tournament and it just worked out for him at the end.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I felt that a combination of poor choices - playing at the Olympics, skipping both Toronto and Cincinnati - would impact Djokovic in this tournament and lead to likely losing the tournament. Stats matter and Medvedev had the advantage in almost every single category. Djokovic fans were counting on Medvedev to implode but I felt that Medvedev was ready to win!

 

[Bartelby]

The only word for this analysis is "delusional".

The mental implosion where the guy was tight as a drum and could barely make simple shots he should put away in his sleep. Maybe mental implosion is not the right word. Choked might be more appropriate.

 

[NoleFam]

These are indeed the facts. Djokovic lost the event at the draw. But that's the reality of a slam.

He still had a chance though but he absolutely had to win that 2nd set. He just couldn't push through on those chances.

 

[Jason Swerve]

What mental implosion happened today exactly?

Djokovic competed with the expectation that he had to win this thing for the history books, and he was also the favorite. The mental odds were against him. Medvedev was able to swing freer. He wasn't just the underdog: he'd lost every slam against Djokovic before. Hingis played the same way as Djokovic, against Graf in '99, only the crowd booed her instead.

 

[Bartelby]

On the other hand, if Novak was the one with the cupcake draw he probably would have won despite the poor choice to attend the Olympics.

I felt that a combination of poor choices - playing at the Olympics, skipping both Toronto and Cincinnati - would impact Djokovic in this tournament and lead to likely losing the tournament. Stats matter and Medvedev had the advantage in almost every single category. Djokovic fans were counting on Medvedev to implode but I felt that Medvedev was ready to win!

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

On the other hand, if Novak was the one with the cupcake draw he would have won despite the poor choice to attend the Olympics.

We will never know if he "would have won". The draw is what it is. Alcaraz took out Tsitsipas so Medvedev was well rested for the final. My point was that those choices did matter - he hadn't had any match play since the Olympics and was rusty going in to the tournament.

 

[Bartelby]

We've had thread after thread about Novak's mental strength, and not just by his fans, and yet you think he never had it in the final for some obscure reason called "history"? Isn't he playing to make history!

Djokovic competed with the expectation that he had to win this thing for the history books, and he was also the favorite. The mental odds were against him. Medvedev was able to swing freer. He wasn't just the underdog: he'd lost every slam against Djokovic before. Hingis played the same way as Djokovic, against Graf in '99, only the crowd booed her instead.

 

[Bartelby]

I'm not arguing against the proposition that the draw is what it is. I'm arguing against the mental implosion stupidity. My thesis is that his body checked out.

We will never know if he "would have won". The draw is what it is. Alcaraz took out Tsitsipas so Medvedev was well rested for the final. My point was that those choices did matter - he hadn't had any match play since the Olympics and was rusty going in to the tournament.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

When Djokovic wants something too much - the Olympics, the CYGS, just to name two examples - he tends to lose in the final. I posted yesterday that this was his achilles heel and I think it contributed to his loss.

 

[Blahovic]

Nothing is ever surprising in retrospect.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I'm not arguing against threproposition that the draw is what it is. I'm arguing against the mental implosions stupidity.

I wasn't the one who said the mental implosion thing. I did think he would probably throw a temper tantrum at some point in the match, which he did.

 

[scotus]

Novak put too much pressure on himself. Perhaps if he had treated the match like any other slam match, he would have played better. Trying to play it like the last match of his career only made him tight and produce a ton of unforced errors. His reaction time was slow and he never got his first serve going.

 

[JustBob]

I'm not surprised because Djokovic caved under pressure at the Olympics. Combine that with him not being s fresh as Medvedev, there you have it. I'd predicted before the tournament he would not win.

 

[Bartelby]

The majority of players get angry during a match. What's new?

I wasn't the one who said the mental implosion thing. I did think he would probably throw a temper tantrum at some point in the match, which he did.

 

[Bartelby]

If you predicted it before the draw then a cigar. If after then no cigar!

I'm not surprised because Djokovic caved under pressure at the Olympics. Combine that with him not being s fresh as Medvedev, there you have it. I'd predicted before the tournament he would not win.

 

[BoxbeamsFTW]

What happened today should have happened 5 years back. It is just that we have generations of useless talent, compared to big 3.

Not that Djokovic was complaining the past few years. The Next Gen has talent but the Big Three were on another level.

 

[Bubcay]

It wasn't only slow starts though. Rune and Zverev got him after the first set. He just wasn't in great form at all. Numbers revealed this, same with Nadal's clay season.

Yep, Djokovic was far from his best form. I am not sure he can even regain it anymore. It was noticeable for me in all of his tournaments this year. I still thought he was going to win the match today though.

 

[Jason Swerve]

We've had thread after thread about Novak's mental strength, and not just by his fans, and yet you think he never had it in the final for some obscure reason called "history"? Isn't he playing to make history!

I can't tell whether you're satirizing people, but the gravity of this match for him was greater than the gravity of Medvedev's wanting to win his first final and stop Djokovic. I compared this to Hingis and Majoli. Everyone, including Djokovic expected him to win this with ease. The same with Hingis and Majoli. Djokovic wanted to keep his Grand Slam dream intact. Hingis wanted to keep her huge winning streak and "youngest" records intact. That's a lot of pressure to carry into a slam final- it doesn't matter who you are. Like scotus just said, the best thing would've been to treat this as a stepping stone to some arbitrary slam total: we could say, #21 on the road to 26 slams or some other far-off number.

But when the opponent knows you have all this pressure and knows they're your pigeon on the big stage, they can bring their best and not worry about whether it fails. They can also enjoy dethroning you in your big moment, knowing that'll get into your head all the more. The concept's pretty simple: Djokovic didn't tank any first sets on purpose like Martinka: he's no teenager. He's getting older, and people are (very slowly) starting to solve his puzzle. He played below his median level for the entire tournament, and knowing you can't jump into 3rd gear like you used to makes it that much harder to mentally keep it together. Especially when your opponent comes out the gate at 4th gear, when you were expecting the same old 2nd gear from him.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

When the draw came out it was basically never in doubt. Med had a creampuff draw and it became more creampuff with TsiTsi going out early again. , Nole got straddled with the tougher opponents. Hes lucky to have even made the finals in the form he was in.

 

[Bartelby]

He beat Zev two days ago and now he is in an irrecoverable dive? How does that happen, exactly?

Yep, Djokovic was far from his best form. I am not sure he can even regain it anymore. It was noticeable for me in all of his tournaments this year. I still thought he was going to win the match today though.

 

[JustBob]

If you predicted it before the draw then a cigar. If after then no cigar!

I believe it was after the draw, but I still deserve full credit.

I wrote this on another forum on 08-22-21, 06:35 PM

I pick the field, I don't believe Djokovic will win the USO. Not enough match play, pressure of winning calendar slam.

 

[Bubcay]

He beat Zev two days ago and now he is in an irrecoverable dive? How does that happen, exactly?

He played a good match against Zverev, no doubt. But I do not think he is in his best form. He is playing smarter, shorter points and has improved serve. I was referring to his peak years when he was simply the best player on the tour. Period. The thing with Djokovic is that even when he is not at his peak, he can still beat anybody. Today, he just choked and the pressure got to him. Not something I thought I will ever say. He is still a GOAT for me and today's match will not change that.

 

[duaneeo]

By every metric and statistic, Medvedev was in far superior form to Djokovic in this tourney.

As was Zverev entering entering the semifinal, no?

These metrics and statistics have typically meant little. Even when the younger player had entered a slam QF/SF/F with the superior form, he was typically shown the door by Djokovic and Nadal.