Interesting Djokovic Stats

Devin

Professional
Pulled these directly from ATP stats webpage. Whether they are accurate, I don't know:

2011 hold%: 86% overall (85% hard, 88% clay, 91% grass)
2011 return%: 39% overall (41% hard, 37% clay, 31% grass)

2015 hold%: 89% overall (88% hard, 91% clay, 95% grass)
2015 return%: 34% overall (37% hard, 33% clay, 24% grass)

Just goes to show how much of a beast Djokovic was on return in 2011. Of course, these stats can be skewed (he had no formidable Rafa to face on clay in 2015, for instance). His serving stats in 2011 may also be affected by the poor showing in the indoor season (although he was great for the first six months of the season). Would kinda be curious to see what his stats were for those first six months.

The 95% on grass is pretty insane, although Djokovic wasn't known for playing grass warmups IIRC where he might bleed service games by not being fully focused.

Now let's look at 2021 and 2023 Djokovic, supposedly near peak versions of Djokovic.

2021 hold%: 87% overall (88% hard, 83% clay, 94% grass)
2021 return%: 35% overall (32% hard, 40% clay, 29% grass)

2023 hold%: 88% overall (90% hard, 81% clay, 94% grass)
2023 return%: 29% overall (29% hard, 34% clay, 19% grass)

ROFLMAO even Roger who pattycakes the second serve return into the service box (also maybe like 2-5000 against the likes of Nole and RAFA) has had better return stats on grass and even hard. And he had better challenges than Nole in this career inflation era.

All our cruise control boy Novak has to help him is the inflated return stats on clay, where he had WEAK competition (minus a geriatric RAFA) and had to bail himself out against TsistiMUG. At least Federer actually had go to through Delpo to win his lone title.

This is not a peak Djokovic guys.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Pulled these directly from ATP stats webpage. Whether they are accurate, I don't know:

2011 hold%: 86% overall (85% hard, 88% clay, 91% grass)
2011 return%: 39% overall (41% hard, 37% clay, 31% grass)

2015 hold%: 89% overall (88% hard, 91% clay, 95% grass)
2015 return%: 34% overall (37% hard, 33% clay, 24% grass)

Just goes to show how much of a beast Djokovic was on return in 2011. Of course, these stats can be skewed (he had no formidable Rafa to face on clay in 2015, for instance). His serving stats in 2011 may also be affected by the poor showing in the indoor season (although he was great for the first six months of the season). Would kinda be curious to see what his stats were for those first six months.

The 95% on grass is pretty insane, although Djokovic wasn't known for playing grass warmups IIRC where he might bleed service games by not being fully focused.

Now let's look at 2021 and 2023 Djokovic, supposedly near peak versions of Djokovic.

2021 hold%: 87% overall (88% hard, 83% clay, 94% grass)
2021 return%: 35% overall (32% hard, 40% clay, 29% grass)

2023 hold%: 88% overall (90% hard, 81% clay, 94% grass)
2023 return%: 29% overall (29% hard, 34% clay, 19% grass)

ROFLMAO even Roger who pattycakes the second serve return into the service box (also maybe like 2-5000 against the likes of Nole and RAFA) has had better return stats on grass and even hard. And he had better challenges than Nole in this career inflation era.

All our cruise control boy Novak has to help him is the inflated return stats on clay, where he had WEAK competition (minus a geriatric RAFA) and had to bail himself out against TsistiMUG. At least Federer actually had go to through Delpo to win his lone title.

This is not a peak Djokovic guys.
Hey stop disrespecting the goat. Unlike old goat Roger who is decisively surpassed by Nole,

Our guy doesn't play grass warmups. Roger had puffcake draws in those halles and Stuttgart so much so that he has only 2 top 10 wins in more than 100 grass wins outside Wimby.

One guy like Hurkacz can completely switch the return stats which is what happened for Nole. He still beat Hubie on 4.

Don't try to make fun of the goat
 

Devin

Professional
Hey stop disrespecting the goat. Unlike old goat Roger who is decisively surpassed by Nole,

Our guy doesn't play grass warmups. Roger had puffcake draws in those halles and Stuttgart so much so that he has only 2 top 10 wins in more than 100 grass wins outside Wimby.

One guy like Hurkacz can completely switch the return stats which is what happened for Nole. He still beat Hubie on 4.

Don't try to make fun of the goat
I know Djokovic doesn't really play warmups.

The 95% hold rate in 2015 was great considering that. It was higher than Federer's in 2006, although Federer kind of made a mess in Halle. I think he was like 97% in Wimbledon in 2006 though.

So yeah, I did consider that.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Hey fedfan seeing your posting history you are the best candidate for ignore list. Bye.

Stop living in your Federer days and come out of nostalgia. Fed is gone never going to come back
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
There's something there I see in these stats. He's holding at 90% on hardcourt, the dominant surface. In fact, he held at 91% in 2022 and 90% last year. This is the only time in his career he was holding above 90% on hardcourt. Kind of confirms what people say about the improved serve. The return has weakened, of course, but the serve is compensating for it.

The stats are misleading though. His return points won for 2018-2023 on hardcourt are all pretty much the same (~40%) but he's breaking less, meaning he's worse on bps now than before. He returned the worse he has in any Wimbledon run to the final in 2023 but was 2 games away from the title. Hurkacz hurt his stats even more with that level of serving but Djokovic really almost served and hit his way to the title without returning well. The only thing was, he didn't have the serve in the final.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
There's something there I see in these stats. He's holding at 90% on hardcourt, the dominant surface. In fact, he held at 91% in 2022 and 90% last year. This is the only time in his career he was holding above 90% on hardcourt. Kind of confirms what people say about the improved serve. The return has weakened, of course, but the serve is compensating for it.

The stats are misleading though. His return points won for 2018-2023 on hardcourt are all pretty much the same (~40%) but he's breaking less, meaning he's worse on bps now than before. He returned the worse he has in any Wimbledon run to the final in 2023 but was 2 games away from the title. Hurkacz hurt him with that level of serving but Djokovic really almost served and hit his way to the title without returning well. The only thing was, he didn't have the serve in the final.
Yes but Carlito's return was just good enough to compensate for his own service game which is comparably weak.

It was not just Hubie but also Sinner who made his stats look worse. Both saved a ton of BP. But sinner is now regularly doing so vs all and Hubie is ace leader in 2023 and is already making his presence know In 2024. Both were not pushovers on serve.
 

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
39 return% for 2011 is a crazy stat. Clearly still very good in 2015 but it appears from the stats that he peaked very early on that shot and it's been a slow, gradual decline since then which would seem to line up with what I've seen. At least it's declined since 2016, but I don't think this is disputed very much, even by those who tend to believe Djokovic hasn't declined as an overall player.

I guess the courts were stupidly slow around that 2011-2012 period (esp. HC Slams) which could drive up the return numbers a bit (see clay) but it's still like four percentage points higher than 2021/23 which is very tough to be explained away with context.

What does tend to be disputed more is Djokovic's serving. I've always thought his supposed improvements in 2020/2021 or so have been quite exaggerated. To me, he peaked with that shot in 2015 and while he's certainly produced some serving masterclasses since then (YEC final not that long ago) he's a lot more up-and-down and is far more likely to throw in a stinker, sometimes with serious repercussions (as in the recent Wimbledon 2023 final). As OP has already noted, 2011 might be a little underrated by the stats since they take in some data from after Djokovic got injured at/around the US Open and certainly have no bearing on his serving performance before then.

An interesting trend reversal is Djokovic returning better on HC than clay in 2011 and 2015 but returning better on clay than HC in 2021 and 2023. I haven't looked at other years for reference and the sample size for HC is way bigger than for clay (meaning clay return stats may be marginally more volatile), but it's probably an indicator of just how good Novak was returning on HC back in the day and the degree to which he's declined since then.

Opponents faced could change some things about these stats, but I'm not sure if the serves and returns Djokovic faced in these seasons were meaningfully different in quality.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Yes but Carlito's return was just good enough to compensate for his own service game which is comparably weak.

It was not just Hubie but also Sinner who made his stats look worse. Both saved a ton of BP. But sinner is now regularly doing so vs all and Hubie is ace leader in 2023 and is already making his presence know In 2024. Both were not pushovers on serve.
Hurkacz served out of a tree in that match too. It's the best anyone has served against Djokovic in a BO5 match since probably Anderson in 2015, at least one where they lost. Djokovic just was not on the return at Wimbledon last year. The timing was off from the 1st match but he still almost pulled it off. He just couldn't do it without his serve and Alcaraz was too good last year to let him get away with it. He still really had it on his racket but nerves got the best of him in that tiebreak on those set points. I agree about Sinner as well. The score doesn't do justice to how close the match kind of was.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
39 return% for 2011 is a crazy stat. Clearly still very good in 2015 but it appears from the stats that he peaked very early on that shot and it's been a slow, gradual decline since then which would seem to line up with what I've seen. At least it's declined since 2016, but I don't think this is disputed very much, even by those who tend to believe Djokovic hasn't declined as an overall player.

I guess the courts were stupidly slow around that 2011-2012 period (esp. HC Slams) which could drive up the return numbers a bit (see clay) but it's still like four percentage points higher than 2021/23 which is very tough to be explained away with context.

What does tend to be disputed more is Djokovic's serving. I've always thought his supposed improvements in 2020/2021 or so have been quite exaggerated. To me, he peaked with that shot in 2015 and while he's certainly produced some serving masterclasses since then (YEC final not that long ago) he's a lot more up-and-down and is far more likely to throw in a stinker, sometimes with serious repercussions (as in the recent Wimbledon 2023 final). As OP has already noted, 2011 might be a little underrated by the stats since they take in some data from after Djokovic got injured at/around the US Open and certainly have no bearing on his serving performance before then.

An interesting trend reversal is Djokovic returning better on HC than clay in 2011 and 2015 but returning better on clay than HC in 2021 and 2023. I haven't looked at other years for reference and the sample size for HC is way bigger than for clay (meaning clay return stats may be marginally more volatile), but it's probably an indicator of just how good Novak was returning on HC back in the day and the degree to which he's declined since then.

Opponents faced could change some things about these stats, but I'm not sure if the serves and returns Djokovic faced in these seasons were meaningfully different in quality.
Depends on what you mean by peaked on serve.

He has way more free points today than in 2015 on serve because he takes more risks even on second serves. But he definitely is taking more risks today. The gamble is worth it considering the age.

When Nole faced Federer in 2014/2015, he just hit high up federer's backhand on second serve and fed mugged up all those returns like a clockwork. But now nole goes for way more.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Hurkacz served out of a tree in that match too. It's the best anyone has served against Djokovic in a BO5 match since probably Anderson in 2015, at least one where they lost. Djokovic just was not on the return at Wimbledon last year. The timing was off from the 1st match but he still almost pulled it off. He just couldn't do it without his serve and Alcaraz was too good last year to let him get away with it. He still really had it on his racket but nerves got the best of him in that tiebreak on those set points. I agree about Sinner as well. The score doesn't do justice to how close the match kind of was.
Yes.

Nole playing only Wimbledon does cause him to come unprepared but it's happening each year. It's just with age it does take him some time to adjust to the elements like freaking heat and wind etc. It's not bad at all because all it matters is the W in the end.

His draw was very rough for Wimbledon though with big server Hurkacz in r4 who also made it to turin (as alternate). And then sinner in semis might look easy then but he was already showing signs of peaking.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
39 return% for 2011 is a crazy stat. Clearly still very good in 2015 but it appears from the stats that he peaked very early on that shot and it's been a slow, gradual decline since then which would seem to line up with what I've seen. At least it's declined since 2016, but I don't think this is disputed very much, even by those who tend to believe Djokovic hasn't declined as an overall player.

I guess the courts were stupidly slow around that 2011-2012 period (esp. HC Slams) which could drive up the return numbers a bit (see clay) but it's still like four percentage points higher than 2021/23 which is very tough to be explained away with context.

What does tend to be disputed more is Djokovic's serving. I've always thought his supposed improvements in 2020/2021 or so have been quite exaggerated. To me, he peaked with that shot in 2015 and while he's certainly produced some serving masterclasses since then (YEC final not that long ago) he's a lot more up-and-down and is far more likely to throw in a stinker, sometimes with serious repercussions (as in the recent Wimbledon 2023 final). As OP has already noted, 2011 might be a little underrated by the stats since they take in some data from after Djokovic got injured at/around the US Open and certainly have no bearing on his serving performance before then.

An interesting trend reversal is Djokovic returning better on HC than clay in 2011 and 2015 but returning better on clay than HC in 2021 and 2023. I haven't looked at other years for reference and the sample size for HC is way bigger than for clay (meaning clay return stats may be marginally more volatile), but it's probably an indicator of just how good Novak was returning on HC back in the day and the degree to which he's declined since then.

Opponents faced could change some things about these stats, but I'm not sure if the serves and returns Djokovic faced in these seasons were meaningfully different in quality.
Return stats have taken a nosedive because the player population is much more serve dominant than in 2011. They're all kids of a mommy a daddy and HGH. Gone are the Nishikori's, Ferrers, Nadals and Murys.

For 2011 I do believe he was also tryharding much more in early rounds and committing warcrimes on journeyman every other match. He is a lot more in cruise control these days.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Yes.

Nole playing only Wimbledon does cause him to come unprepared but it's happening each year. It's just with age it does take him some time to adjust to the elements like freaking heat and wind etc. It's not bad at all because all it matters is the W in the end.

His draw was very rough for Wimbledon though with big server Hurkacz in r4 who also made it to turin (as alternate). And then sinner in semis might look easy then but he was already showing signs of peaking.
Yea, and I mean after dominating a tournament like that you start to show some cracks in the armor. That is really only natural and then you have to throw in that he's 36.

I thought Rublev played him tougher too and put up a much better performance than their AO match, and came out with guns blazing. It wasn't an easy draw like 2021 and tougher than 2022 as well.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Return stats have taken a nosedive because the player population is much more serve dominant than in 2011. They're all kids of a mommy a daddy and HGH. Gone are the Nishikori's, Ferrers, Nadals and Murys.

For 2011 I do believe he was also tryharding much more in early rounds and committing warcrimes on journeyman every other match. He is a lot more in cruise control these days.
The ATP finals field was one of the strongest field on serve last year. If they replaced Rublev with Hurkacz. But even Rublev and Carlos who were the poorest servers were far better than someone like ferreT.

Nowadays the serves are becoming dominant.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Yea, and I mean after dominating a tournament like that you start to show some cracks in the armor. That is really only natural and then you have to throw in that he's 36.

I thought Rublev played him tougher too and put up a much better performance tha their AO match, and came out with guns blazing. It wasn't an easy draw like 2021 or 2022.
Rublev did but Nole took hold of set 2/3 where he dragged Rublev. He had no hope for almost 2 hrs. Set 4 Djokovic slowed down.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
Return stats have taken a nosedive because the player population is much more serve dominant than in 2011. They're all kids of a mommy a daddy and HGH. Gone are the Nishikori's, Ferrers, Nadals and Murys.

For 2011 I do believe he was also tryharding much more in early rounds and committing warcrimes on journeyman every other match. He is a lot more in cruise control these days.
@Megafanoftennis100

You were saying something similar right?
 

itrium84

Hall of Fame
Pulled these directly from ATP stats webpage. Whether they are accurate, I don't know:

2011 hold%: 86% overall (85% hard, 88% clay, 91% grass)
2011 return%: 39% overall (41% hard, 37% clay, 31% grass)

2015 hold%: 89% overall (88% hard, 91% clay, 95% grass)
2015 return%: 34% overall (37% hard, 33% clay, 24% grass)

Just goes to show how much of a beast Djokovic was on return in 2011. Of course, these stats can be skewed (he had no formidable Rafa to face on clay in 2015, for instance). His serving stats in 2011 may also be affected by the poor showing in the indoor season (although he was great for the first six months of the season). Would kinda be curious to see what his stats were for those first six months.

The 95% on grass is pretty insane, although Djokovic wasn't known for playing grass warmups IIRC where he might bleed service games by not being fully focused.

Now let's look at 2021 and 2023 Djokovic, supposedly near peak versions of Djokovic.

2021 hold%: 87% overall (88% hard, 83% clay, 94% grass)
2021 return%: 35% overall (32% hard, 40% clay, 29% grass)

2023 hold%: 88% overall (90% hard, 81% clay, 94% grass)
2023 return%: 29% overall (29% hard, 34% clay, 19% grass)

ROFLMAO even Roger who pattycakes the second serve return into the service box (also maybe like 2-5000 against the likes of Nole and RAFA) has had better return stats on grass and even hard. And he had better challenges than Nole in this career inflation era.

All our cruise control boy Novak has to help him is the inflated return stats on clay, where he had WEAK competition (minus a geriatric RAFA) and had to bail himself out against TsistiMUG. At least Federer actually had go to through Delpo to win his lone title.

This is not a peak Djokovic guys.
GOAT doesn't need to peak if he is to win slams.
 

The Sinner

Semi-Pro
How is it possible, someone winning 3 slams in one year, and the other slam being a runner-up, whilst ranked No1, is not peak, or at least prime level?
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Man why you getting so touchy in this thread chill lmao
Well I ignore a lot but majority of this board has lost any sense of neutrality.

Just the other day a member @Kralingen said Djokovic has no wins comparable to nadal's USOpen wins vs him. When non nolefams said yes he does, the member says I know but I am trying to prove a pt.

This thread is in the same vain.
 
A

ALCARAZWON

Guest
Soon there will be NO current player named Novak Djokovic, and these types mind-numbing stats will never be posted again (y)
Rafa and Carlos will dominate 2024-25, ending the slam race forever with Rafa on 25 slams, and shoving the psychotic pusher into retirement (y)
Spain will make tennis great again (y) and make tennis relevant again (y) and save us from the Serb's boring way of life.
 

Devin

Professional
39 return% for 2011 is a crazy stat. Clearly still very good in 2015 but it appears from the stats that he peaked very early on that shot and it's been a slow, gradual decline since then which would seem to line up with what I've seen. At least it's declined since 2016, but I don't think this is disputed very much, even by those who tend to believe Djokovic hasn't declined as an overall player.

I guess the courts were stupidly slow around that 2011-2012 period (esp. HC Slams) which could drive up the return numbers a bit (see clay) but it's still like four percentage points higher than 2021/23 which is very tough to be explained away with context.

What does tend to be disputed more is Djokovic's serving. I've always thought his supposed improvements in 2020/2021 or so have been quite exaggerated. To me, he peaked with that shot in 2015 and while he's certainly produced some serving masterclasses since then (YEC final not that long ago) he's a lot more up-and-down and is far more likely to throw in a stinker, sometimes with serious repercussions (as in the recent Wimbledon 2023 final). As OP has already noted, 2011 might be a little underrated by the stats since they take in some data from after Djokovic got injured at/around the US Open and certainly have no bearing on his serving performance before then.

An interesting trend reversal is Djokovic returning better on HC than clay in 2011 and 2015 but returning better on clay than HC in 2021 and 2023. I haven't looked at other years for reference and the sample size for HC is way bigger than for clay (meaning clay return stats may be marginally more volatile), but it's probably an indicator of just how good Novak was returning on HC back in the day and the degree to which he's declined since then.

Opponents faced could change some things about these stats, but I'm not sure if the serves and returns Djokovic faced in these seasons were meaningfully different in quality.
Yeah. I've tried to figure it out. The 39% is nuts though. Nadal had some absurd stats on clay too (I think he was 50-51% in terms of return games won on clay in 2008).

I think it is important to look at the numbers in context (i.e. opponents faced, potential for numbers to be skewed by certain tournaments or injuries).

I looked at Roger's 2005 for instance. Seems like the bad showing at TMC because of the injury only affected his overall hold% by 1 point. He was at around 89% for the whole year, but if you leave out that one tournament, he would've been at >=90%.

I think if you did the same with Novak, it would probably just show how insane the first six months (or even nine months) of that year was. Probably the most dominant first six months in tennis IMO especially considering who he was beating to win these titles.
 

Megafanoftennis100

Professional
Hey stop disrespecting the goat. Unlike old goat Roger who is decisively surpassed by Nole,

Our guy doesn't play grass warmups. Roger had puffcake draws in those halles and Stuttgart so much so that he has only 2 top 10 wins in more than 100 grass wins outside Wimby.

One guy like Hurkacz can completely switch the return stats which is what happened for Nole. He still beat Hubie on 4.

Don't try to make fun of the goat
What are you talking about? No one here insulted Jannik Sinner.
 

Megafanoftennis100

Professional
Ok, I will tell you what, all the Djoker fanatics are in denial of the fact that Novak Djokovic, playing the best tennis of his life and on his favourite AO turf, was comprehensively beaten by a 22-year-old Jannik Sinner.
Throughout his whole career, Djokovic had the luxury of playing against a mentally fragile old Federer, and a boring defense-oriented pusher like Nadal.

But once he faced the true GOAT, he got thrashed in his favourite tournament
Some "GOAT" Djokovic is. He will never be the GOAT, nor will Federer or Nadal or any champion before them.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Return stats have taken a nosedive because the player population is much more serve dominant than in 2011. They're all kids of a mommy a daddy and HGH. Gone are the Nishikori's, Ferrers, Nadals and Murys.

For 2011 I do believe he was also tryharding much more in early rounds and committing warcrimes on journeyman every other match. He is a lot more in cruise control these days.

The top player are taller, we do no longer have the strong clay court specialists and I guess serve plus has become better after the slump of the baseline years. This would explain that nowadays it is more difficult to win return points. The ATP finals on that slick indoor court were absolute serve fests.

The grass return stats are always tricky and more so if a player only plays Wimby, which means seven matches at most.
 
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