Irma

[stringertom]

South Florida is screwed but it could be worse if there's just a bit of shift in the path to the east. The eye will pass between less populated SW Florida and the Dade/Broward/Palm Beach megalopolis and through the Everglades. Being on the NE side of the storm is bad for Miami and their northern neighbors but it will be worse if it shifts just 50 miles east.

North here in Orlando, it looks like we get heavy wind and rain overnight Sunday and into Monday. Both coasts will get storm surges along with the wind and rain. Hopefully the interaction with the land mass of the peninsula will help break up the eye's organization and we won't see the mini-tornadoes we had with Charlie in '04.

Good luck to all my fellow Floridians!

 

[Seth]

Where in Carolina are you?

Clayton. Outside of Raleigh.

 

[Mainad]

South Florida is screwed but it could be worse if there's just a bit of shift in the path to the east. The eye will pass between less populated SW Florida and the Dade/Broward/Palm Beach megalopolis and through the Everglades. Being on the NE side of the storm is bad for Miami and their northern neighbors but it will be worse if it shifts just 50 miles east.

North here in Orlando, it looks like we get heavy wind and rain overnight Sunday and into Monday. Both coasts will get storm surges along with the wind and rain. Hopefully the interaction with the land mass of the peninsula will help break up the eye's organization and we won't see the mini-tornadoes we had with Charlie in '04.

Good luck to all my fellow Floridians!

Hope you and @Gary Duane stay safe. Keeping my fingers crossed for both of you and everyone else in Florida!!!

 

[jaggy]

Clayton. Outside of Raleigh.

Should be safe if forecasts are accurate, a few days ago we were a bit more worried. Local stores out of water here as panic sets in though.

 

[Mr.Lob]

A distant friend on Tressure Island says he's going to have a party and ride it out. Says likely to just get minor wind and rain.

 

[stringertom]

Hope you and @Gary Duane stay safe. Keeping my fingers crossed for both of you and everyone else in Florida!!!

Gary is gonna feel it more. I'm expecting just a bit more rain and wind than we had last October during Matthew that skirted the Atlantic coast as it passed Orlando. Damage and danger here was very negligible then. We will probably have something between that and what we got in '04 twice in less than a month with Charlie and Frances. I'm now closely watching Jose and Katia with fear of another double whammy.

 

[Seth]

Should be safe if forecasts are accurate, a few days ago we were a bit more worried. Local stores out of water here as panic sets in though.

My friends in Charlotte said gas lines were formed yesterday and lots of water shortages.

 

[David Le]

Isn't gas prices down there like up $9.96 I saw that some where on Twitter.

 

[Gary Duane]

This is the first time I've posted since . . . well, just before the power went out, which was Wednesday at 4pm.

Here in Puerto Rico, Irma managed to stay just north of us and (I think) we avoided major damage. I say "I think" because with no electricity, I haven't really been able to catch a lot of news. I drove around the neighborhood last night (just to sit in the car with the air conditioning on, cos it's so damn hot) and other than downed tree limbs, I didn't see much chaos. No power means no road or street lights, so the roads were dark and intersections were a challenge to cross. Only a couple of stores lit and open. Generally speaking, a ghost town in my neck of the woods.

Running water is running at about 15% of normal flow, just more than a trickle really. But we have buckets everywhere already filled, as well as the jet tub in the master bedroom. Our neighbors next door have been angels. They have a generator and have run an extension cord to our place. Our fridge is running and we can keep our phones charged to communicate with the rest of the world. Little camping stove is giving us the ability to have hot meals. We'll see how long the power stays off.

Grateful for the near miss. For me, looking out my window on Wednesday night was no worse than a experiencing a regular thunder storm. But worried for all my friends in Florida who have yet to get their visit from Irma.

Here's the thing most people don't understand about hurricanes.

San Juan is around N18 28. Irma passed over at about lat N19. Every degree is around 69 miles, so it basically missed the top of Puerto Rico by around 35 miles.

Last year Mathew passed a bit more than a degree to the east of us, and we did not even lose power. The worst winds were like a fairly bad thunderstorm.

But Wilma's eye went over us, and it nearly destroyed our home.

These guys show a hurricane path that is HUGE in width, and it's very misleading.

Look to the places that got a direct hit to see what is coming. St. Martin got the very worst of it.

Something similar will happen in the Keys. The winds will probably be a little less, maybe down to a Cat 4, but it's going to be really bad there.

Tortola was something like 8 minutes of latitude above the eye.

 

[Gary Duane]

South Florida is screwed but it could be worse if there's just a bit of shift in the path to the east. The eye will pass between less populated SW Florida and the Dade/Broward/Palm Beach megalopolis and through the Everglades. Being on the NE side of the storm is bad for Miami and their northern neighbors but it will be worse if it shifts just 50 miles east.

North here in Orlando, it looks like we get heavy wind and rain overnight Sunday and into Monday. Both coasts will get storm surges along with the wind and rain. Hopefully the interaction with the land mass of the peninsula will help break up the eye's organization and we won't see the mini-tornadoes we had with Charlie in '04.

Good luck to all my fellow Floridians!

That's right on the money. As I said, a degree is around 69 miles, or 60 knots. If the eye misses you by more than 50 miles, you have a good chance of coming through with not too much damage.

Whatever Key gets hit directly is going to be devastated. Right now it is headed for Marathon. I hope none of our members lives there. Right now Marathon is ground zero in the Keys.

The current path takes it onshore in Florida right through the Everglades. Hopefully some of the worst of the winds will dissipate before Irma hits the center of the state.

What is happening makes it clear why no one really gets these storms right. You don't know exactly where they will hit until they hit. It's a crap shoot.

 

[mikeler]

This is the first time I've posted since . . . well, just before the power went out, which was Wednesday at 4pm.

Here in Puerto Rico, Irma managed to stay just north of us and (I think) we avoided major damage. I say "I think" because with no electricity, I haven't really been able to catch a lot of news. I drove around the neighborhood last night (just to sit in the car with the air conditioning on, cos it's so damn hot) and other than downed tree limbs, I didn't see much chaos. No power means no road or street lights, so the roads were dark and intersections were a challenge to cross. Only a couple of stores lit and open. Generally speaking, a ghost town in my neck of the woods.

Running water is running at about 15% of normal flow, just more than a trickle really. But we have buckets everywhere already filled, as well as the jet tub in the master bedroom. Our neighbors next door have been angels. They have a generator and have run an extension cord to our place. Our fridge is running and we can keep our phones charged to communicate with the rest of the world. Little camping stove is giving us the ability to have hot meals. We'll see how long the power stays off.

Grateful for the near miss. For me, looking out my window on Wednesday night was no worse than a experiencing a regular thunder storm. But worried for all my friends in Florida who have yet to get their visit from Irma.

I'm regretting not having a generator.

 

[mikeler]

Here's the thing most people don't understand about hurricanes.

San Juan is around N18 28. Irma passed over at about lat N19. Every degree is around 69 miles, so it basically missed the top of Puerto Rico by around 35 miles.

Last year Mathew passed a bit more than a degree to the east of us, and we did not even lose power. The worst winds were like a fairly bad thunderstorm.

But Wilma's eye went over us, and it nearly destroyed our home.

These guys show a hurricane path that is HUGE in width, and it's very misleading.

Look to the places that got a direct hit to see what is coming. St. Martin got the very worst of it.

Something similar will happen in the Keys. The winds will probably be a little less, maybe down to a Cat 4, but it's going to be really bad there.

Tortola was something like 8 minutes of latitude above the eye.

Charlie came right over the top of us in 2005. We only lost power for 12 hours but it was NOT a typical thunderstorm. There was no thunder and the wind was crazy. You could hear things constantly hitting the house and creaking in the attic. Not fun.

 

[Gary Duane]

Update for those who are interested:

My plotting has actually been ahead of the news at every point. I have simply used Google Earth, plotting the exact position of the eye. That means that I am dead on with each announcement of where the storm is, but usually anywhere from a bit ahead to several hours because the news is not constantly updating. Google Earth is incredible about showing where things are, real-time.

Right now I have the storm at 22N13 77W11, measuring by the eye. The eye for the first time has lost a tiny bit of it's clear formation, probably due to being over Cuba. The last couple days it has been absolutely eerie, with absolute clarity in the middle of the eye.

If the path holds as it is, the eye will hit the northern most coast of Cuba in about 12 hours, right above Santa Clara. That is dependent on the storm not greatly changing speed. Currently it is moving around 12 mph, much slower. Previously it was moving something like 17 mph.

However, quite obviously I have zero data about when the turn to the north will begin.

The latest model shows a bend beginning to the north taking the eye a bit north of the coast of Cuba, hitting someplace called "Cayos del Pajonal". These little "keys" don't show any detail on Google Earth.

Next hit will be little Cayo Fragoso, a tiny paradise. But I'm glad I'm not there now.

Marathon Key is still marked as ground zero in the keys. Over the next 36 hours or so we'll see if it veers more towards Key Largo or Key West.

 

[Gary Duane]

I'm regretting not having a generator.

We are too. For us that will probably be the worst part. After Wilma we were without power for almost two weeks. That was not that bad for many other people. Irma will be worse for the people who get the northeast part of the storm, close to the eye.

 

[mikeler]

Update for those who are interested:

My plotting has actually been ahead of the news at every point. I have simply used Google Earth, plotting the exact position of the eye. That means that I am dead on with each announcement of where the storm is, but usually anywhere from a bit ahead to several hours because the news is not constantly updating. Google Earth is incredible about showing where things are, real-time.

Right now I have the storm at 22N13 77W11, measuring by the eye. The eye for the first time has lost a tiny bit of it's clear formation, probably due to being over Cuba. The last couple days it has been absolutely eerie, with absolute clarity in the middle of the eye.

If the path holds as it is, the eye will hit the northern most coast of Cuba in about 12 hours, right above Santa Clara. That is dependent on the storm not greatly changing speed. Currently it is moving around 12 mph, much slower. Previously it was moving something like 17 mph.

However, quite obviously I have zero data about when the turn to the north will begin.

The latest model shows a bend beginning to the north taking the eye a bit north of the coast of Cuba, hitting someplace called "Cayos del Pajonal". These little "keys" don't show any detail on Google Earth.

Next hit will be little Cayo Fragoso, a tiny paradise. But I'm glad I'm not there now.

Marathon Key is still marked as ground zero in the keys. Over the next 36 hours or so we'll see if it veers more towards Key Largo or Key West.

Predicting weather is still in its infancy but we are way ahead of what was available a decade or two ago. Keeping fingers crossed for now.

 

[Gary Duane]

Charlie came right over the top of us in 2005. We only lost power for 12 hours but it was NOT a typical thunderstorm. There was no thunder and the wind was crazy. You could hear things constantly hitting the house and creaking in the attic. Not fun.

Did you understand that Mathew went way to the east of us?

Wilma came right over us and destroyed part of our house, blew in the back sliding window, water damage, very frightening. No power for around 2 weeks.

 

[Gary Duane]

Predicting weather is still in its infancy but we are way ahead of what was available a decade or two ago. Keeping fingers crossed for now.

I'm not saying that they don't do a good job. I'm only saying that we take their pictures too seriously, not understanding what they mean.

When they show a cone, we have to remember that they are saying that most likely the eye will travel somewhere in the cone. With that in mind, they did fine.

They are deliberately cautious, which is understandable.

We prepared for Irma as if the eye would go right over us, again, as it did with Wilma. However, because of the path shown now we should have less damage this time, if it does not surprise us by bending back to the right between now and when it reaches our latitude.

What I am saying is this: by watching the path, I knew where things would be devastated, and where people had a greater chance of making it through with less damage.

Right now Irma is plowing into barrier islands in Cuba. Havana will probably fare pretty well if the projected path holed because the eye will miss it by up to around 100 miles more more, and it will get the left side of the storm. But if the storm did not bend and went right over Havana, it would be very bad.

If the projected path holds, the eye will go almost directly over Naples. A couple days ago I thought Naples was a much better place to be.

Naples is about 100 miles due west of where we live. People who have not been through many hurricanes have no idea how different it is to have the eye go right over you as opposed to having it pass 100 miles away at the closest.

With this monster storm all estimates are guesses, because the storm is so huge and the wind speed stays so high so much farther from the center than with other storms.

 

[NonP]

Don't forget about Irma's (weakling) sibling:

http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...re_s_another_hurricane_coming_after_irma.html

Thankfully it looks like Jose will miss landfall. Still hope everyone can stay safe.

 

[Gary Duane]

Don't forget about Irma's (weakling) sibling:

http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...re_s_another_hurricane_coming_after_irma.html

Thankfully it looks like Jose will miss landfall. Still hope everyone can stay safe.

Different path for those of us in the US and should be no trouble. But for people farther west, it is an unbelievable nightmare.

 

[stringertom]

Irma seems to be a shoreline hugger as it crawls along Cuba's north coast but then is predicted to hook northward at the exact time to do the same act along Florida's Gulf Coast. It's almost like any sizable land mass is a magnet.

If she bounces along the Florida Gulf coast that is really bad because that water is very warm and will add energy if and when it bounces inland. Those of us in Orlando need it to stay west of Tampa or we will get hit very hard on the NE side of the storm.

Meanwhile, it's as decent as we can expect in the lead up...scattered bands of light rain all day Friday and now Saturday early AM with just a tiny bit of wind. How long that lasts is what I would like to hear from our local meteorologists. I need to squeeze in a day of work if these conditions stay with us through Sunday morning.

 

[oztennisfan]

Irma seems to be a shoreline hugger as it crawls along Cuba's north coast but then is predicted to hook northward at the exact time to do the same act along Florida's Gulf Coast. It's almost like any sizable land mass is a magnet.

If she bounces along the Florida Gulf coast that is really bad because that water is very warm and will add energy if and when it bounces inland. Those of us in Orlando need it to stay west of Tampa or we will get hit very hard on the NE side of the storm.

Meanwhile, it's as decent as we can expect in the lead up...scattered bands of light rain all day Friday and now Saturday early AM with just a tiny bit of wind. How long that lasts is what I would like to hear from our local meteorologists. I need to squeeze in a day of work if these conditions stay with us through Sunday morning.

Stay safe st

 

[Gary Duane]

Irma seems to be a shoreline hugger as it crawls along Cuba's north coast but then is predicted to hook northward at the exact time to do the same act along Florida's Gulf Coast. It's almost like any sizable land mass is a magnet.

If she bounces along the Florida Gulf coast that is really bad because that water is very warm and will add energy if and when it bounces inland. Those of us in Orlando need it to stay west of Tampa or we will get hit very hard on the NE side of the storm.

Meanwhile, it's as decent as we can expect in the lead up...scattered bands of light rain all day Friday and now Saturday early AM with just a tiny bit of wind. How long that lasts is what I would like to hear from our local meteorologists. I need to squeeze in a day of work if these conditions stay with us through Sunday morning.

It's now about 5 AM. I just went out for what I assume will be my last walk/run until this storm is over. It was reasonably windy, the kind of wind we would rarely ever get at this time and most certainly never at this time of year.

I think the visible size of the storm is misleading. I am looking at cloud cover on Google Earth. Almost all of Cuba is covered, and soon it really will cover the whole country. The Keys are covered, Miami, and my area is almost covered. I'm wondering if this is a false picture. I did not see what seemed to be heavy clouds outside, and it was dry.

If this storm was not so much hyped, I would assume we would get almost nothing in Coral Springs if the eye goes straight over Naples. Naples is a full 100 miles due west. But the news is showing huge amount of rain for our area, at least a foot. I'll be curious to see if this is accurate.

As much as I despise Rush Limbaugh, I do agree with him about the media playing up disasters because it pushes up ratings. I don't think it is "fake news", but I think they get into the whole even, excited about the wind and power of storms. You can see that reporters are adrenaline junkies when they are outside, experiencing the wind, the waves, the whole thing. Whoever is selling water and batteries makes a pretty penny, for example. We bought a lot of bottled water, but we normally by a case now and then, so in the long run we won't spend more money. We just bought gas for our cars. But if you are selling lumber or supplies, you make a lot of money it seems.

 

[stringertom]

The 0500EDT update is bleak for Florida's second largest city, Tampa. Landfall looks to be closer to Ft. Myers and north with Irma doing an encore of its dance along Cuba's north coast. If it had only been south a bit as it interacted with Cuba, their mountains would have helped break the eye's organization. As it is, the eye has shrunk a bit but once it hits the Gulf's warmer waters look for it to reorganize.

Cat 4 right now and staying that strength until significant landfall but still a Cat 3 as Irma deuces Tampa early Monday morning. Orlando probably gets Cat 2 conditions through most of Monday.

My current conditions remain a product of a low pressure system coming from the Atlantic and is unrelated to Irma. It should be stable through Sunday afternoon before the outer bands of her approach become dominant. When the winds shift to a path from the south and west we will be under Irma's force.

 

[mikeler]

Did you understand that Mathew went way to the east of us?

Wilma came right over us and destroyed part of our house, blew in the back sliding window, water damage, very frightening. No power for around 2 weeks.

I don't live in the Miami area and yes, I'm quite aware of the path Matthew took.

 

[mikeler]

I'm not saying that they don't do a good job. I'm only saying that we take their pictures too seriously, not understanding what they mean.

When they show a cone, we have to remember that they are saying that most likely the eye will travel somewhere in the cone. With that in mind, they did fine.

They are deliberately cautious, which is understandable.

We prepared for Irma as if the eye would go right over us, again, as it did with Wilma. However, because of the path shown now we should have less damage this time, if it does not surprise us by bending back to the right between now and when it reaches our latitude.

What I am saying is this: by watching the path, I knew where things would be devastated, and where people had a greater chance of making it through with less damage.

Right now Irma is plowing into barrier islands in Cuba. Havana will probably fare pretty well if the projected path holed because the eye will miss it by up to around 100 miles more more, and it will get the left side of the storm. But if the storm did not bend and went right over Havana, it would be very bad.

If the projected path holds, the eye will go almost directly over Naples. A couple days ago I thought Naples was a much better place to be.

Naples is about 100 miles due west of where we live. People who have not been through many hurricanes have no idea how different it is to have the eye go right over you as opposed to having it pass 100 miles away at the closest.

With this monster storm all estimates are guesses, because the storm is so huge and the wind speed stays so high so much farther from the center than with other storms.

My point is that in 5 days time, they still have a huge cone of error which I believe is over 200 miles. in 20 years, that will probably be down to 100 miles or less.

 

[mikeler]

The 0500EDT update is bleak for Florida's second largest city, Tampa. Landfall looks to be closer to Ft. Myers and north with Irma doing an encore of its dance along Cuba's north coast. If it had only been south a bit as it interacted with Cuba, their mountains would have helped break the eye's organization. As it is, the eye has shrunk a bit but once it hits the Gulf's warmer waters look for it to reorganize.

Cat 4 right now and staying that strength until significant landfall but still a Cat 3 as Irma deuces Tampa early Monday morning. Orlando probably gets Cat 2 conditions through most of Monday.

My current conditions remain a product of a low pressure system coming from the Atlantic and is unrelated to Irma. It should be stable through Sunday afternoon before the outer bands of her approach become dominant. When the winds shift to a path from the south and west we will be under Irma's force.

You and I already had lots of rain last night. More on the way here in an hour or two. Ugh...

 

[skip1969]

I'm regretting not having a generator.

My mom looked into generators earlier this summer. If she had any doubts about getting one, I'm sure those doubts are gone.

It's been crazy hot with no breeze whatsoever since Irma passed. It's made it difficult to do much, but sleep has been the toughest thing. We've set up shop in the living room, sleeping on the couch and loveseat and plugging two fans into the only power supply we have from our nice neighbors next door.

And I've taken lots of cold showers.

 

[ollinger]

And I've taken lots of cold showers

fantasies about "Irma"?

 

[Rafaisdabest]

Stay safe st

Yes stay safe @stringertom also @MichaelNadal and everyone else in Florida!!

 

[Harry_Wild]

10-12 hours before it hits Florida now?

 

[Seth]

The 0500EDT update is bleak for Florida's second largest city, Tampa. Landfall looks to be closer to Ft. Myers and north with Irma doing an encore of its dance along Cuba's north coast. If it had only been south a bit as it interacted with Cuba, their mountains would have helped break the eye's organization. As it is, the eye has shrunk a bit but once it hits the Gulf's warmer waters look for it to reorganize.

Cat 4 right now and staying that strength until significant landfall but still a Cat 3 as Irma deuces Tampa early Monday morning. Orlando probably gets Cat 2 conditions through most of Monday.

My current conditions remain a product of a low pressure system coming from the Atlantic and is unrelated to Irma. It should be stable through Sunday afternoon before the outer bands of her approach become dominant. When the winds shift to a path from the south and west we will be under Irma's force.

RIP Sarasota. I hope my house is still standing.

 

[stringertom]

RIP Sarasota. I hope my house is still standing.

How close is it to any water? Storm surge may prove to be the worst danger.

 

[Seth]

How close is it to any water? Storm surge may prove to be the worst danger.

6 miles from the coast. I imagine I'll be fine on that front. The winds are expected to be around 125mph sustained in Sarasota at that time.

Luckily I got out while the gettin' was good.

 

[stringertom]

6 miles from the coast. I imagine I'll be fine on that front. The winds are expected to be around 125mph sustained in Sarasota at that time.

Luckily I got out while the gettin' was good.

Yes, gas is hard to get and I-75 is a parking lot.

 

[stringertom]

6 miles from the coast. I imagine I'll be fine on that front. The winds are expected to be around 125mph sustained in Sarasota at that time.

Luckily I got out while the gettin' was good.

Also, if the house was built after Andrew (1992) and Charlie (2004), building codes were toughened up to mitigate total destruction. The real danger from wind in these storms are mini-tornadoes within the bigger storm. Those are what caused most of the damage in Orlando in '04.

Meanwhile, Punta Gorda has to be the unluckiest Florida community. They took the direct hit from Charlie then and now they're in this path too.

 

[Seth]

Also, if the house was built after Andrew (1992) and Charlie (2004), building codes were toughened up to mitigate total destruction. The real danger from wind in these storms are mini-tornadoes within the bigger storm. Those are what caused most of the damage in Orlando in '04.

Meanwhile, Punta Gorda has to be the unluckiest Florida community. They took the direct hit from Charlie then and now they're in this path too.

Our house was built in 1989. That's what makes me anxious. Hopefully you guys in Orlando stay safe!

 

[mikeler]

My mom looked into generators earlier this summer. If she had any doubts about getting one, I'm sure those doubts are gone.

It's been crazy hot with no breeze whatsoever since Irma passed. It's made it difficult to do much, but sleep has been the toughest thing. We've set up shop in the living room, sleeping on the couch and loveseat and plugging two fans into the only power supply we have from our nice neighbors next door.

And I've taken lots of cold showers.

Yes, sleeping in the heat is my biggest dread.

 

[stringertom]

Yes, sleeping in the heat is my biggest dread.

You don't sleep...you may drift off but it ain't sleep. I went through that for Frances in '04...lying on the tile floor to get as cool as possible.

 

[Gary Duane]

My mom looked into generators earlier this summer. If she had any doubts about getting one, I'm sure those doubts are gone.

It's been crazy hot with no breeze whatsoever since Irma passed. It's made it difficult to do much, but sleep has been the toughest thing. We've set up shop in the living room, sleeping on the couch and loveseat and plugging two fans into the only power supply we have from our nice neighbors next door.

And I've taken lots of cold showers.

A wet wash cloth is good on your chest, arms, legs. The heat is always a problem. Not so much with Wilma, because it arrived almost two months later, well probably more like a month and a half - Oct. 23rd. That's not exactly cool in Florida, but a lot better than September.

But it was awful after Andrew, which was around this time.

 

[Gary Duane]

You don't sleep...you may drift off but it ain't sleep. I went through that for Frances in '04...lying on the tile floor to get as cool as possible.

To put things into perspective: I grew up in this area, before anyone had AC. The way homes are built has changed radically. We had jalousie windows, and there was always a flow of air. We always boarded up for storms, complete set of boards for all windows, just had to screw them in.

Now we have hurricane glass, and we barely hear wind. It's great so long as the AC is running, but we get zero air flow. The moment the AC goes off, it is pure hell.

I grew up a couple miles west of New River, and there was a small woods right behind us. We always got air, and there was not pavement everywhere to soak up heat. My parents slept in a "Florida room" during the summer, on couches.

There were roaches everywhere. You couldn't get rid of them. Before going into the kitchen at night you learned to put on the lights first, then watch them scurry. No amount of spray could control them. We didn't think about getting cancer in the future. When we went to the "drive in movie" near us, they would spay DDT from a truck, to kill mosquitoes.

Those were the days of "duck and cover". A lot of what is wrong with the world right now started in this era.

Ft. Lauderdale was a paradise when we arrived in '53.

Probably the amount that it has gotten hotter is exaggerated, but it's not inconsequential either, and it is enough to have changed climate world-wide.

 

[jaggy]

Hoping all of you are ok, if we can be of any help at all don't hesitate to ask. Jaggy and Mrs jaggy only too happy to take in waifs and strays (if you can get up here anyway).

 

[Gary Duane]

My point is that in 5 days time, they still have a huge cone of error which I believe is over 200 miles. in 20 years, that will probably be down to 100 miles or less.

Probably.

Irma is between 100 and 125 miles to the west of the path that was originally projected as most likely. In the end a lot of emphasis was put on the "European" model, the idea being that it uses more computer power and is more accurate.

The have to show the cone as they do because of the inaccuracy.

The problem is that people look at the cone and think of really dangerous winds being throughout the whole cone, not realizing that that cone narrows incredibly by the time the hurricane actually arrives.

At the moment the eye is projected to pass very close to Key West, a bit to the east but not much, then it would head up to Sanibel Island, passing very close to Naples.

The irony is that I initially wished we could simply go to Naples, which would have been much safer with the initially projected path.

I believe I read that 1/4th of the population of Florida left the state, but just moving north was not really the answer. People not living in Florida forget that we can't just get in a car and travel east or west a couple states...

 

[ACE of Hearts]

Probably.

Irma is between 100 and 125 miles to the west of the path that was originally projected as most likely. In the end a lot of emphasis was put on the "European" model, the idea being that it uses more computer power and is more accurate.

The have to show the cone as they do because of the inaccuracy.

The problem is that people look at the cone and think of really dangerous winds being throughout the whole cone, not realizing that that cone narrows incredibly by the time the hurricane actually arrives.

At the moment the eye is projected to pass very close to Key West, a bit to the east but not much, then it would head up to Sanibel Island, passing very close to Naples.

The irony is that I initially wished we could simply go to Naples, which would have been much safer with the initially projected path.

I believe I read that 1/4th of the population of Florida left the state, but just moving north was not really the answer. People not living in Florida forget that we can't just get in a car and travel east or west a couple states...

Any idea how hard Hialeah might get hit? I know someone there and they just stayed indoors with the windows locked.

 

[stringertom]

To put things into perspective: I grew up in this area, before anyone had AC. The way homes are built has changed radically. We had jalousie windows, and there was always a flow of air. We always boarded up for storms, complete set of boards for all windows, just had to screw them in.

Now we have hurricane glass, and we barely hear wind. It's great so long as the AC is running, but we get zero air flow. The moment the AC goes off, it is pure hell.

I grew up a couple miles west of New River, and there was a small woods right behind us. We always got air, and there was not pavement everywhere to soak up heat. My parents slept in a "Florida room" during the summer, on couches.

There were roaches everywhere. You couldn't get rid of them. Before going into the kitchen at night you learned to put on the lights first, then watch them scurry. No amount of spray could control them. We didn't think about getting cancer in the future. When we went to the "drive in movie" near us, they would spay DDT from a truck, to kill mosquitoes.

Those were the days of "duck and cover". A lot of what is wrong with the world right now started in this era.

Ft. Lauderdale was a paradise when we arrived in '53.

Probably the amount that it has gotten hotter is exaggerated, but it's not inconsequential either, and it is enough to have changed climate world-wide.

College friends of mine use to show me photos taken of Miami in the 50's by their parents...a whole world of difference even back in the 70's. I often wondered if Hitchcock did indeed film "Notorious" on location there in the 40's. The scenes in that film kinda matched the moods of my friends' snapshots.

Here in Orlando, you can see the older neighborhoods were all built into more heavily forested areas and they left as many trees as possible to provide a natural canopy. Great during calmer weather but a real danger when the storms come.

 

[Chadillac]

Anyone down south feeling it yet? Still not sure what its going todo but very happy to see were looking at 40-50mph winds instead of the 100+

 

[Chadillac]

Crunch time, its on the tip thing of cuba. We will know if its going to stick to land or move north

 

[dgold44]

Crunch time, its on the tip thing of cuba. We will know if its going to stick to land or move north

What about Boca areas ???

Did God spare them

 

[Chadillac]

What about Boca areas ???

Did God spare them

Looks like their getting heavy feeder bands, moving further west was great for them, but got some red bands over them now.

 

[dgold44]

Looks like their getting heavy feeder bands, moving further west was great for them, but got some red bands over them now.

Most of them are probably back in NYC !!!!

 

[dgold44]

What is feeder or red bands