is an 11 UTR really a 4.5 NTRP?

I
J011yroger said:
I bet your coach was in college 6-7 years ago and was a 13. The top 4.5 guys were in the low 10s in my area back then. There were a good amount of 11-13s in 5.0 and then suddenly everyone dropped 3-4 points and UTR acts like it never happened.

I was almost 12.5 playing tournaments over winter, played 5.0 dropped under 10.

Now it's like arguing with my girlfriend "I never said that."

Last I looked I was like a 4.

So whatever.

J
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So you're saying that UTR has been deflated over the last few years? Or NTRP has been deflated over the last several years?
 
There is no way in heck an 11 UTR is a 4.5. An 11 UTR would crush a 4.5. My son was an 8.2 heading into his freshman year in high school and some local hot shot 4.5 thought he would take him out. The match started and all of a sudden the 4.5 started asking for "Do overs". I was like Do overs????

Eventually, the "Do overs" stopped because every point was ending in a "Do over". It was a bagel and a half when the 4.5 hot shot quit.

I looked up 18+ 5.0 teams in our area after my son's freshman year of college as I thought he would want to play summer USTA as I thought it would be a fun team thing to do but when I looked at it it really just didn't make sense.

He just does summer ITAs. At some point when he is 30 and has a belly on him it will make sense to join the older tennis pros that play 18+ 5.0 in our area.
 
JK208 said:
I

So you're saying that UTR has been deflated over the last few years? Or NTRP has been deflated over the last several years?
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The way I would put it is that UTR apparently assessed a big chunk of recreational players’ UTR ratings were inflated some 6 or so years back. Hence the “adjustment” which moved a lot of people’s UTR ratings down.
 
There are in fact 'hotshot' 4.5s with UTRs around 8 or even 7 who routinely beat juniors with similar or slightly higher UTRs where I live. Their coaches who set these matches up are not surprised by the outcome and accept, as I have mentioned here several times before, that adults who play league and/or age-group tournaments have depressed UTRs relative to juniors. This might be because there is no 5.0 league in my area, so nothing for the top 4.5s to move into, and the better players do not play many tournaments (or even league) at all. But I don't think it's an island effect, necessarily. And, to be clear, there is definitely a threshold where these players are no longer competitive with juniors, utr 10 or so is what I'd guess it to be.
 
am1899 said:
The way I would put it is that UTR apparently assessed a big chunk of recreational players’ UTR ratings were inflated some 6 or so years back. Hence the “adjustment” which moved a lot of people’s UTR ratings down.
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In fairness to UTR, WTN did exactly the same recal thing a little over a year ago, where an ntrp 4.5c who was a WTN 12 suddenly became a WTN 24.

WTN got hammered in reputation for the big adjustment, but at least they were open about doing it. And like TR at least WTN shows every match rating and pre-match rating so that everything is always above board with no shady funny business or arbitrary rating gap cutoffs to censor results.

UTR tried to cover it up and pretend “the big adjustment” didn’t happen, which is harder to respect.

A friend of mine was a UTR 12 about 8 years ago when he was still in college. He just started training again and playing tournaments, and he was driving himself insane because he was chasing his old rating, and struggling to beat UTR 10s. He was totally unaware of the big adjustment, which messed with his perceptions of level.
 
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denoted said:
There are in fact 'hotshot' 4.5s with UTRs around 8 or even 7 who routinely beat juniors with similar or slightly higher UTRs where I live. Their coaches who set these matches up are not surprised by the outcome and accept, as I have mentioned here several times before, that adults who play league and/or age-group tournaments have depressed UTRs relative to juniors. This might be because there is no 5.0 league in my area, so nothing for the top 4.5s to move into, and the better players do not play many tournaments (or even league) at all. But I don't think it's an island effect, necessarily. And, to be clear, there is definitely a threshold where these players are no longer competitive with juniors, utr 10 or so is what I'd guess it to be.
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Maybe at dubs as juniors and college kids aren't what they were at it but there is no way a 4.5 adult is taking out a 8 or 7 junior player.

Come on by our area. I can line up a match.
 
I played at tri level and 18+ league at nationals, and I love to analyze the data (utr, tr, wtn).
A 4.5 would be somewhere between 6.7 - 8.5 utr. There's some exceptions with the players that don't play enough matches to get bumped up or down.
4.0 could be 5.2 to 7.5 UTR
3.5 USTA = 4 to 7 UTR (I had this year a 3.5 on the team that has 6.9 utr)
 
LOBALOT said:
Maybe at dubs as juniors and college kids aren't what they were at it but there is no way a 4.5 adult is taking out a 8 or 7 junior player.

Come on by our area. I can line up a match.
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So 5 years ago I was playing 5.0 ntrp tournaments regularly and then did UTR 1-2 times.

Here’s how I’d describe reality:
1- I could win or final in almost all 5.0’tourneys. Ended top ranked in the state. I was not the best. But I was consistently top and got points from playing enough tournaments. At no point could I say I was one of the best 5.0s in the section by skill; but I could say I was by points. I qualified for nationals 5.0.

2- I didn’t play leagues at that time since I was over it but I used to play leagues a lot at 4.5. I know the players well. There were many 4.5 players on the stacked teams that could beat me as a “5.0”

3- then and now I’m at a 7s UTR. At the time, I as a 4.5/5.0 (ntrp league rating was technically 4.5). I had some really competitive matches against some local d3 and d2 “youngins” that were also in the 7s at that time.

So I don’t see why it’s so far fetched for a GOOD 4.5 (by official ntrp rating) take out a 7- or low 8s UTR.

The problem with 4.5 ntrp ratings has always been that the top end is really good. I’ve always explained this to people as in (at least in my area) 5.0 is dead. But all this said; it feels like the low end of 4.5 isn’t nearly as good as it used to be. In that sense; I absolutely agree that a lower end 4.5 has zero shot against a 7s+ junior.
 
servesurgeon said:
I played at tri level and 18+ league at nationals, and I love to analyze the data (utr, tr, wtn).
A 4.5 would be somewhere between 6.7 - 8.5 utr. There's some exceptions with the players that don't play enough matches to get bumped up or down.
4.0 could be 5.2 to 7.5 UTR
3.5 USTA = 4 to 7 UTR (I had this year a 3.5 on the team that has 6.9 utr)
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This explains a ton to me and aligns a lot with why I’m so confused on ntrp vs utr lately.

Any chance you did similar analysis for 5.0 and 5.5 ntrp?
 
LOBALOT said:
Maybe at dubs as juniors and college kids aren't what they were at it but there is no way a 4.5 adult is taking out a 8 or 7 junior player.

Come on by our area. I can line up a match.
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Strongly disagree. With identical UTR the adult league player is much more likely to be stronger.

It's a systematic failing. It's only accurate among its cohort.

Where is your area? Would love to play.

J
 
ryohazuki222 said:
So 5 years ago I was playing 5.0 ntrp tournaments regularly and then did UTR 1-2 times.

Here’s how I’d describe reality:
1- I could win or final in almost all 5.0’tourneys. Ended top ranked in the state. I was not the best. But I was consistently top and got points from playing enough tournaments. At no point could I say I was one of the best 5.0s in the section by skill; but I could say I was by points. I qualified for nationals 5.0.

2- I didn’t play leagues at that time since I was over it but I used to play leagues a lot at 4.5. I know the players well. There were many 4.5 players on the stacked teams that could beat me as a “5.0”

3- then and now I’m at a 7s UTR. At the time, I as a 4.5/5.0 (ntrp league rating was technically 4.5). I had some really competitive matches against some local d3 and d2 “youngins” that were also in the 7s at that time.

So I don’t see why it’s so far fetched for a GOOD 4.5 (by official ntrp rating) take out a 7- or low 8s UTR.

The problem with 4.5 ntrp ratings has always been that the top end is really good. I’ve always explained this to people as in (at least in my area) 5.0 is dead. But all this said; it feels like the low end of 4.5 isn’t nearly as good as it used to be. In that sense; I absolutely agree that a lower end 4.5 has zero shot against a 7s+ junior.
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My experience agrees with everything in this post 100%.
 
IMG-20240514-WA0000.jpg


J
 
travlerajm said:
I would strongly disagree based on my personal experience.
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You don't need to believe me. search tennis link. I just searched 18+ 4.5 2024 nationals. ''

Note: A good portion of these guys get bumped and the top singles guy I saw was a 9.75 UTR from So Cal.

Again, as we know these guys are sandbagging and are not going to be 4.5 next year.

Your typical 4.5 1 singles guy is an 8.
 
I played 9.0 combo mixed doubles the last two summers in the Southern section, so I came across a lot of 4.5 guys. I'd definitely say 4.5 can range anywhere from 7-9 UTR. They know how to play and keep balls in play, usually with a decent knowledge of technique but usually are a bit lacking in physicality or strength compared to a 5.0 or higher, but still good tennis players regardless. A good number of 4.5s I've hit with are former college players too, just don't have the legs anymore, as they can be a little older.
 
J011yroger said:
Strongly disagree. With identical UTR the adult league player is much more likely to be stronger.

It's a systematic failing. It's only accurate among its cohort.

Where is your area? Would love to play.

J
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Joly!!!

I am a westerner middler you know that. Come on by. That would be awesome!
 
LiamMiguel said:
I played 9.0 combo mixed doubles the last two summers in the Southern section, so I came across a lot of 4.5 guys. I'd definitely say 4.5 can range anywhere from 7-9 UTR. They know how to play and keep balls in play, usually with a decent knowledge of technique but usually are a bit lacking in physicality or strength compared to a 5.0 or higher, but still good tennis players regardless. A good number of 4.5s I've hit with are former college players too, just don't have the legs anymore, as they can be a little older.
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I have seen you play (roughly hitting post match when my son's team was down there to play you guys) and you would crush any 4.5. That is exactly my point.

The typical 4.5 is 30+ who thinks they can play but older and can't move.
 
denoted said:
There are in fact 'hotshot' 4.5s with UTRs around 8 or even 7 who routinely beat juniors with similar or slightly higher UTRs where I live. Their coaches who set these matches up are not surprised by the outcome and accept, as I have mentioned here several times before, that adults who play league and/or age-group tournaments have depressed UTRs relative to juniors. This might be because there is no 5.0 league in my area, so nothing for the top 4.5s to move into, and the better players do not play many tournaments (or even league) at all. But I don't think it's an island effect, necessarily. And, to be clear, there is definitely a threshold where these players are no longer competitive with juniors, utr 10 or so is what I'd guess it to be.
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I was warming up some 5ish UTR 12 year olds at a tournament, and technically, they had some of the best form I've ever seen, but as soon as it came to point play and hitting out, it stopped being competitive and I didn't really struggle to beat them. My official UTR is 4.8 with 20% confidence.
 
JK208 said:
I

So you're saying that UTR has been deflated over the last few years? Or NTRP has been deflated over the last several years?
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Let's say someone one UTR point higher than someone else on average wins 6-2, 6-2.

I think it's closer than that maybe even 6-4, 6-4.

So Sinner at 16 beats some top 100 guy who is a 15.

Top 100 guy at 15 beats a top 400 guy at 14.

Top 400 guy at 14 beats a good d1 college player at 13.

Good D1 college player at 13 beats average D1 college player at 12.

Average D1 12 college player beats weaker D1 and stronger D2/D3 11.

So far so good?

Let's say that takes care of 5.5-7.0. 6 UTR points for 4 USTA levels, >5% of the competitive tennis players on earth.

Now we start at 5.0, call them 10UTR at the top.
As per the USTA definition a top 5.0 beats a bottom 5.0 6-0,6-0. So we have 8 as the bottom of 5.0.

Following this we get 7&6 as 4.5, 5&4 as 4.0, 3&2 as 3.5, annnnnd we are fresh out of numbers by the time we get to 3.0 men who are better than 50% of the tennis playing population.

So the system is doomed to fail as there are more than 16 levels of 6-2,6-2 losses between Sinner and ladies 2.5 or a U10 junior player.

J
 
J011yroger said:
Let's say someone one UTR point higher than someone else on average wins 6-2, 6-2.

I think it's closer than that maybe even 6-4, 6-4.

So Sinner at 16 beats some top 100 guy who is a 15.

Top 100 guy at 15 beats a top 400 guy at 14.

Top 400 guy at 14 beats a good d1 college player at 13.

Good D1 college player at 13 beats average D1 college player at 12.

Average D1 12 college player beats weaker D1 and stronger D2/D3 11.

So far so good?

Let's say that takes care of 5.5-7.0. 6 UTR points for 4 USTA levels, >5% of the competitive tennis players on earth.

Now we start at 5.0, call them 10UTR at the top.
As per the USTA definition a top 5.0 beats a bottom 5.0 6-0,6-0. So we have 8 as the bottom of 5.0.

Following this we get 7&6 as 4.5, 5&4 as 4.0, 3&2 as 3.5, annnnnd we are fresh out of numbers by the time we get to 3.0 men who are better than 50% of the tennis playing population.

So the system is doomed to fail as there are more than 16 levels of 6-2,6-2 losses between Sinner and ladies 2.5 or a U10 junior player.

J
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The problem is it is not a linear progression but exponential. The better you are the steeper the cliff. That is why you run out of numbers at the bottom.
 
LOBALOT said:
The problem is it is not a linear progression but exponential. The better you are the steeper the cliff. That is why you run out of numbers at the bottom.
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Unfortunately that's the inverse of how tennis works, and you only apply pressure in both directions to the curve where you play.

J
 
This is somewhat anecdotal, but FWIW:

The weakest player on the college team I coach for is UTR 8. This old man would destroy him. Granted, he is playing D3 college tennis and isn’t in the starting lineup. Me, I played D1 Big East o scholarship in the starting lineup as a freshman about 25 years ago.

Seems to me either adult recreational players’ UTR ratings are now understated, or junior and collegiate players’ ratings are inflated. (Or both).

But hey, WTH do I know?
 
LOBALOT said:
The typical 4.5 is 30+ who thinks they can play but older and can't move.
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Saw a 4.5 dude a couple summers back, maybe 30-35-ish, sliding around like he was a 20 year old :-D. I was astonished his ankles didn't blow up. His case could've been a guy that was a 5.0 but wanted to stay down at 4.5 to be honest. Wish I was still at 4.5 or even 5.0, I'm having so much trouble finding USTA Leagues as I got rated 5.5 this year.
 
LiamMiguel said:
Saw a 4.5 dude a couple summers back, maybe 30-35-ish, sliding around like he was a 20 year old :-D. I was astonished his ankles didn't blow up. His case could've been a guy that was a 5.0 but wanted to stay down at 4.5 to be honest. Wish I was still at 4.5 or even 5.0, I'm having so much trouble finding USTA Leagues as I got rated 5.5 this year.
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Are you actually a rising 5.5 who got bumped after being 4.5 and 5.0 earlier? Most 5.5s seem to be players who were 6.0+ as juniors/college age and are falling to a 5.5 rating.
 
socallefty said:
Are you actually a rising 5.5 who got bumped after being 4.5 and 5.0 earlier? Most 5.5s seem to be players who were 6.0+ as juniors/college age and are falling to a 5.5 rating.
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I got bumped up this January, self rating myself the same way I always have since I stopped playing 18s in Texas back in 2022 (midway through my freshman year), but this year it was at 5.5. I made a typo in the original now looking back, I meant to say still 5.0 instead of still 4.5.

I thought it was odd but now that I live in the Southern section, even if I was still a 5.0, I wouldn’t have been able to play my usual summer mixed combo league since combo isn’t a thing anymore (at least from what I’ve been told). Maybe I am truly a 5.5 but it just sucks not being able to play in any summer leagues or anything as there isn’t any actual 5.5 play anywhere. Guess I’ll stick to ITA Summer Circuits and UTRs, which cost a fortune.

Edit: I played a bunch of current and D3 guys in the past who are current 4.0s and 4.5s but I never played another D3 guy who was actually playing USTA and rated 5.0 or higher. D3 is all over the spectrum as the best teams have great players who can play at a higher level, but it goes the other way too. I’m the only guy on my team (top 15 D3) that still decides to play USTA as an adult but I don’t get a crazy amount of playing time in season with getting hurt all the time anyways LOL!
 
socallefty said:
I see - you are an active college player. No wonder you are still rising in your rating. It is unusual to see active college players play USTA.
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Yeah it makes sense, but I hate it! I just want to play some competitive tennis haha.

Another edit: I wish USTA was a lot more active in the 5.0+ community to kind of get some college players or former players back into the USTA system during summer and winter breaks. The only thing we get is ITAs and UTRs which are frequently above $100 to register nowadays due to prize money. I know the 5.0+ players have to do their part and be active too but I feel like a little help from USTA would be nice. I wouldn’t know the logistics behind it though. Joining USTA adult opens is fine like at the L3-L5 levels but not many join those either. My buddy who was number 1 at my school a few years ago, who is still very active in tennis past PT school and I believe would be rated 5.0-5.5, is having the same problem where there’s nowhere to join or play competitively.
 
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In my experience, there are a good number of college-age players in USTA. Some places have captains with close ties to club tennis programs of big universities, which often have players who had 7-10 UTRs as juniors, but who aren't good enough to play for the D1 team. Self-rating issues have been known to arise in these situations. There's that, and then there are the cities that attract many recent college graduates, who sometimes pick up league tennis.
 
LOBALOT said:
Maybe at dubs as juniors and college kids aren't what they were at it but there is no way a 4.5 adult is taking out a 8 or 7 junior player.

Come on by our area. I can line up a match.
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J011yroger said:
Strongly disagree. With identical UTR the adult league player is much more likely to be stronger.

It's a systematic failing. It's only accurate among its cohort.

Where is your area? Would love to play.

J
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A little late to the topic, I could be wrong but in Dallas awhile back before the reset.... kids, unless they would mentally self destruct, were a good 1-1.5 utr better in skill level than similar ranked adults witu the same utr. But, this is Dallas and sometimes I think Dallas is the same as every us city since I grew up there, the more time goes on the more I learn it isn't. The kids are going to full time tennis academies , so 5 or 6 hours of tennis everyday year round. They have fitness, nutritionist, and tennis coaches as juniors, as 13-15 year olds, that show up to the matches. Those kids can be utr 7-9, in general those 13-15 year olds are destroying each other every weekend at tournaments, holding their utr down. I've seen them face adults with the same utr and usually it looks like a miss match since the adults are just ambitious usta players joining in all ages utr tournaments.

Maybe the reset fixed what this used to be? I'm not sure.
 
J011yroger said:
Strongly disagree. With identical UTR the adult league player is much more likely to be stronger.

It's a systematic failing. It's only accurate among its cohort.

Where is your area? Would love to play.

J
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This is 100% true.

And the reason is obvious. UTR has to maintain its zero sum system.

When a junior takes a 6-month break from competition, his ex opponents improve a lot, and since the algo adjusts your rating if past opponents improve, UTR bumps up the rating of the inactive junior even if the player didn’t actually improve.

In order to maintain the zero sum across the whole system, it has to continuously decay all the adult ratings. So the only adults with accurate ratings are the ones who’ve been playing lots of recent matches, and even those ratings are depressed compared to the juniors and college players.

Whenever I play singles against a “100% reliable” junior or college player, i seem to “overperform” because they have inflated rating compared to the adults.
 
FuzzyYellowBalls said:
A little late to the topic, I could be wrong but in Dallas awhile back before the reset.... kids, unless they would mentally self destruct, were a good 1-1.5 utr better in skill level than similar ranked adults witu the same utr. But, this is Dallas and sometimes I think Dallas is the same as every us city since I grew up there, the more time goes on the more I learn it isn't. The kids are going to full time tennis academies , so 5 or 6 hours of tennis everyday year round. They have fitness, nutritionist, and tennis coaches as juniors, as 13-15 year olds, that show up to the matches. Those kids can be utr 7-9, in general those 13-15 year olds are destroying each other every weekend at tournaments, holding their utr down. I've seen them face adults with the same utr and usually it looks like a miss match since the adults are just ambitious usta players joining in all ages utr tournaments.

Maybe the reset fixed what this used to be? I'm not sure.
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I totally agree with this. I grew up in the North Dallas area and was in the homeschooling program at my club (I still went to school, but I didn't start until 10 AM usually, being ahead in high school credits). We would be warmed up by 6:45 and ready to hit until 9:15, where conditioning started with our conditioning coach. I then went to school, and I got another two hours of hitting there from 2:30 to 4:30, and it was good hitting too, as we were the number two ranked school in UIL 5A at the time. Then, I went back my club and trained from 5-7 and then I was done for the day. This went on for around for my entire senior year (and only my senior year as my parents stopped me from playing tennis consistently from grade 10-11, so I was trying to get back so I could play at a good college level) and it was the most tiring but rewarding thing I had done at the time. Everyone in our program usually played two tournaments a month, where we would travel with the entire academy and our high-performance coaches were there. It was such a crazy day-to-day schedule as it was just constant grind. I was pretty unprepared to start as I hadn't trained that rigorously since I had been 14-15 y/o. I didn't play many adults growing up through USTA, but I played a few at some UTR tournaments and didn't think the level was that crazily different but we could hang in there a bit longer. I remember one match where I played a 9 UTR adult, older 20s, and the guy was pretty good but that was it. To play the other hand though, I've played some tournaments as a 20 y/o where I played a junior whose good middle 10 UTR and won but there are some pretty strong junior 9 UTRs in FL would I ended up losing to or having really close matches with.

In terms of the reset, I played a few tournaments as I was in-season for high school tennis in the spring. I really didn't think much of it at the time, I just ended up playing dudes that were not from the general South more than usual in L2s, L3s, L4s, etc. I think I had a slight jump in UTR but nothing outlandish. I think I finished out high school at like a 10.2 UTR or something like that but that was a long time ago. I actually had a higher UTR when I was 15 than I had at 18! Also, since the reset, I've been told there hasn't been as much good juniors playing USTA as a lot are just going straight into UTR tournaments to get some prize money (also blame NIL for that) or they're starting to travel more for ITFs, but I'd take that with a grain of salt.

TLDR: Yes, Texas junior tennis culture is outrageously crazy.
 
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I think the list below works pretty well as a rule of thumb for men. Obviously we have all seen exceptions but I think it's pretty accurate in most cases where the player has good data (many matches with a good network of opponents).

NTRP 2.5 = UTR <2.25
NTRP 3.0 = UTR 2.25-3.75
NTRP 3.5 = UTR 3.75-5.25
NTRP 4.0 = UTR 5.25-6.75
NTRP 4.5 = UTR 6.75-8.25
NTRP 5.0 = UTR 8.25-9.75
NTRP 5.5 = UTR 9.75-11.25
NTRP 6.0 = UTR 11.25-12.75
NTRP 6.5 = UTR 12.75-14.25
NTRP 7.0 = UTR 14.25-15.75 (touring pros)
NTRP 7.5 = UTR >15.75 (best pros in the world)

I extended to the highest levels just for fun. Imagine a top-10 ATP player getting upset because he got bumped up to 7.5 and can't play in the 7.0 league anymore.
 
LiamMiguel said:
I totally agree with this. I grew up in the North Dallas area and was in the homeschooling program at my club (I still went to school, but I didn't start until 10 AM usually, being ahead in high school credits). We would be warmed up by 6:45 and ready to hit until 9:15, where conditioning started with our conditioning coach. I then went to school, and I got another two hours of hitting there from 2:30 to 4:30, and it was good hitting too, as we were the number two ranked school in UIL 5A at the time. Then, I went back my club and trained from 5-7 and then I was done for the day. This went on for around for my entire senior year (and only my senior year as my parents stopped me from playing tennis consistently from grade 10-11, so I was trying to get back so I could play at a good college level) and it was the most tiring but rewarding thing I had done at the time. Everyone in our program usually played two tournaments a month, where we would travel with the entire academy and our high-performance coaches were there. It was such a crazy day-to-day schedule as it was just constant grind. I was pretty unprepared to start as I hadn't trained that rigorously since I had been 14-15 y/o. I didn't play many adults growing up through USTA, but I played a few at some UTR tournaments and didn't think the level was that crazily different but we could hang in there a bit longer. I remember one match where I played a 9 UTR adult, older 20s, and the guy was pretty good but that was it. To play the other hand though, I've played some tournaments as a 20 y/o where I played a junior whose good middle 10 UTR and won but there are some pretty strong junior 9 UTRs in FL would I ended up losing to or having really close matches with.

In terms of the reset, I played a few tournaments as I was in-season for high school tennis in the spring. I really didn't think much of it at the time, I just ended up playing dudes that were not from the general South more than usual in L2s, L3s, L4s, etc. I think I had a slight jump in UTR but nothing outlandish. I think I finished out high school at like a 10.2 UTR or something like that but that was a long time ago. I actually had a higher UTR when I was 15 than I had at 18! Also, since the reset, I've been told there hasn't been as much good juniors playing USTA as a lot are just going straight into UTR tournaments to get some prize money (also blame NIL for that) or they're starting to travel more for ITFs, but I'd take that with a grain of salt.

TLDR: Yes, Texas junior tennis culture is outrageously crazy.
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It is the same as here in the middle of the west. Fore example Chicago is a dog-eat-dog tennis town. The competition to just make it out of that district to sectionals is battle. Some really good players don't even make it. I would not underestimate the ability of the kids. They are playing around 20 hours per week. An adult who is trying to stay active is hitting maximum of 10 and that is asking a lot.
 
TennisOTM said:
I think the list below works pretty well as a rule of thumb for men. Obviously we have all seen exceptions but I think it's pretty accurate in most cases where the player has good data (many matches with a good network of opponents).

NTRP 2.5 = UTR <2.25
NTRP 3.0 = UTR 2.25-3.75
NTRP 3.5 = UTR 3.75-5.25
NTRP 4.0 = UTR 5.25-6.75
NTRP 4.5 = UTR 6.75-8.25
NTRP 5.0 = UTR 8.25-9.75
NTRP 5.5 = UTR 9.75-11.25
NTRP 6.0 = UTR 11.25-12.75
NTRP 6.5 = UTR 12.75-14.25
NTRP 7.0 = UTR 14.25-15.75 (touring pros)
NTRP 7.5 = UTR >15.75 (best pros in the world)

I extended to the highest levels just for fun. Imagine a top-10 ATP player getting upset because he got bumped up to 7.5 and can't play in the 7.0 league anymore.
Click to expand...
Do others agree with this? This feels to me like the most believable simplification of the conversion I’ve seen that aligns to my experiences.

It also manages to explain the phenomena i find when I say I’m looking for 4.5-5.0 players (which to me implies ntrp) and then I hit the court with what feels more like a 4.5-5.0 UTR.
 
If adults rarely play juniors, women rarely play men, players in different countries don’t play each at the rec level etc. (particularly in singles), how does UTR know how to standardize all levels of groups playing across the whole world? Should we just believe that somehow UTR knows what they are doing?
 
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ryohazuki222 said:
Do others agree with this? This feels to me like the most believable simplification of the conversion I’ve seen that aligns to my experiences.

It also manages to explain the phenomena i find when I say I’m looking for 4.5-5.0 players (which to me implies ntrp) and then I hit the court with what feels more like a 4.5-5.0 UTR.
Click to expand...

Part of that too is a lot of adults have an inflated perspective of their level.

As many of us who captain teams can relate with the guy that shows up in Spring who is a friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend who states "I am really a 4.5 but will sign up for your 3.5 team" and then you watch them hit and they are a 3.0 an at best.
 
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socallefty said:
If adults rarely play juniors, women rarely play men, players in different countries don’t play each outside at the rec level etc. (particularly in singles), how does UTR know how to standardize all levels of groups playing across the whole world?
Click to expand...

This is an excellent point and I am not sure any "comparative" measuring system can get around this issue.

College Tennis is another area where you have to look very carefully at UTRs as some player my join a team as a freshman as an 11 UTR and be spotted at 6 singles in the lineup and play 10s for a year or two and thus their UTR will drift toward that10. They still play at that 11 level but they are only playing 10s so their UTR will be a 10.
 
LOBALOT said:
This is an excellent point and I am not sure any "comparative" measuring system can get around this issue.

College Tennis is another area where you have to look very carefully at UTRs as some player my join a team as a freshman as an 11 UTR and be spotted at 6 singles in the lineup and play 10s for a year or two and thus their UTR will drift toward that10. They still play at that 11 level but they are only playing 10s so their UTR will be a 10.
Click to expand...
in other words, UTR is mostly just a strength of schedule rating.
 
socallefty said:
If adults rarely play juniors, women rarely play men, players in different countries don’t play each at the rec level etc. (particularly in singles), how does UTR know how to standardize all levels of groups playing across the whole world? Should we just believe that somehow UTR knows what they are doing?
Click to expand...
There's a big difference between "rarely" and "never". These matchups are rare but they do happen, and it probably doesn't take a huge number of them to be able to set a reasonable standardization.

USTA faces a similar issue with standardizing rec-level NTRP across all the regions of the U.S. They have to rely on results from National tournaments, and perhaps players who move from one region to another. Those are are only a tiny fraction of all matches played, yet they carry large weight in determining ratings for eveyone, and it seems to be reasonably successful, though some probably disagree.

I would think that the UTR system somehow applies extra weight to results from rare matchups that link different parts of the network, though I don't know for sure how well they accomplish that.
 
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