The reality is when you look at absolute peak for peak, are any of these guys really that far apart on any surface?
Let’s look at the clear weakest of the 3 on 2/3 surfaces, Nadal. Is Wimbledon 07/08 really that far from peak Federer/Djokovic at Wimbledon? Obviously not.
Nadal has beaten Federer a few times on HC including occasionally during Fed’s prime. Nadal managed to play Djokovic down to the wire at AO12, and beat Djokovic in the middle of his prime at US13. AO09 is better than either version, again, is he really that far off either of them on HC at their best?
On the flip side, let’s look at clay, where Nadal’s overall resume is clearly better than the other 2. Federer came within an inch of beating Nadal in maybe their highest quality match ever at Rome 06. Djokovic 2009 stretched the best ever Nadal (MC08-Madrid 09) to the absolute limit in the 09 clay trilogy and then took a nearly as good Nadal to the limit again in 2013 at RG. Yes, Nadal is clearly better than the other two on this surface by a margin that allows him to win most of the time, but peak for peak they came very close.
Federer and Djokovic fans have already argued ad nauseam about these two, so not much to add except to comment on the obvious to complete the point. Baby Djokovic was able to take it to peak/prime Federer in MTL 07, and mostly bottled the USO due to nerves, before beating monoFed convincingly en route to his maiden slam. On the flip side, an older Federer has played peak and prime Djokovic too close on too many occasions and beaten him badly in some important BO3 matches. At the end of his prime he decisively beat a peak Djokovic at 2012 Wimbledon. And split RG with him when they overlapped as late prime Fed vs peak Djokovic.
Some could argue that Djokovic’s grass peak must come in this stretch from 2014-21 where he’s won 5/7 of the editions played. But when you look at those, he scraped through an older Federer in 2014, barely scraped through a heavily declined Nadal in 2018 who had already played a marathon against Del Potro while getting favorable conditions (roof). And then in 2019 we all know about 40-15 and coming within less than 1cm of losing that match to a 38-9 yo Federer.
Some other interesting notes:
- Djokovic AO08 is the only interruption in Federer’s slam final streak from W05-AO10
- Federer broke Nadal’s historic clay winning streak and fed him a bagel in that same match
- Djokovic broke peak 2008 Nadal’s winning streak in Cincinnati
- Federer broke peak Djokovic 2011s winning streak at RG
- Nadal broke Federer’s Wimbledon streak
- Nadal dealt several important losses to Peakovic in 2012-13
Clearly, it’s not coincidence that at their very best, they were pretty much only stopped by each other
They’ve all peaked at slightly different times and dealt with slightly different circumstances. Federer had time to build confidence against a somewhat weaker field before Nadal and Djokovic arrived.
Nadal got sandwiched between two other ATGs and never got his own era but could always fall back on his clay supremacy.
Djokovic had to battle his way in against two prime ATGs but then has gotten to enjoy one of the softest eras ever the past few years.
I’m not really sure how anyone could look at the course of their careers and come to any conclusion other than that at their very best, these guys are basically equal. All trolling aside, there’s no way to honestly pick a “BOAT” between these 3. There’s also been 3 other guys in the past 20 years that have managed to achieve a peak level close to their highest quality for very brief moments (Wawrinka, Safin, Del Potro). I wouldn’t put Murray in that group due to lack of weapons. There were favorable circumstances in most of his big wins - Del Potro softening up Djokovic at W13 and Federer at Olympics 12, crazy wind at US12.
Djokovic and Federer clearly exceed Nadal in consistency and management of their health. All three showed adaptability over time in different ways. They’ll wind up with different resumes for a variety of reasons. But peak vs peak vs peak, there’s pretty much no daylight between these guys