Is Djokovic overrated on clay?

[Sport]

Is Djokovic's current level overrated on clay? Last year he lost to Checcinato at RG, and people said he has not at his best. Sure? Nadal lost to Müller at WB 2017 and no one said Nadal was not at his best. Checcinato is a clay specialist who played really well and defeated not only Djokovic but also Goffin. So I think Djokovic's current level on clay is that.

When Djokovic was at his absolute prime on clay he could challenge prime Nadal at RG (remember 2013). But Djokovic is (almost) 32 and now the decline should be more noticieable on his worst surface.

 

[Sport]

I mean overrated in the sense that people are saying he is basically co-favorite with Nadal to win RG, not in the sense of having an overrated clay resume.

 

[tennis_pro]

I don't know.

Now let's talk about Nadal's draw.

 

[EloQuent]

Yeah I think so. Maybe in the past it was a better surface for him but more recently he's barely top 20.

 

[mbm0912]

wins RG..

 

[Sport]

wins RG..

That is exactly what I was talking about.

 

[Djokovic2011]

His current level is pretty ****e so I don't see how it could be overrated in the first place.

 

[Pheasant]

Only a few of the Djokovic fans overrate Djoker on clay. I don't think that we should this very small chunk of Djoker fans cloud our judgment of the whole fan base. Besides, all fan bases have unreasonable posters. Anytime I hear the statements like "Djoker fans always say this", or "Federer fans always say this", I cringe. Statements like that sum up an entire fan base and I think that's unfair, regardless of the fan base. I think that the majority of this site has Djokovic rated where he should be. Of course, maybe I'm overrating Djoker. I have the following as the favorites at RG

1. Nadal: 60% chance of winning RG. He's losing foot speed by the year. But he's still the overwhelming favorite.
2. Thiem: 15% chance of winning. He's been extremely consistent at RG.
3. Djokovic: 10% chance of winning. He's always dangerous in a best of 5 set up. But this is his worst surface by far.

Djokovic serving better than ever and he's more aggressive than ever. This is why he's been destroying people in slams lately, especially in finals. But Djoker's ability to grind has taken a hit, due to age. And clay doesn't allow Djoker's new skills to gain a huge advantage on the mud. With all of that being said, Djoker is incredibly clutch in best of 5 matches. So we can never rule him out.

 

[Sport]

Only a few of the Djokovic fans overrate Djoker on clay. I don't think that we should this very small chunk of Djoker fans cloud our judgment of the whole fan base. Besides, all fan bases have unreasonable posters. Anytime I hear the statements like "Djoker fans always say this", or "Federer fans always say this", I cringe. Statements like that sum up an entire fan base and I think that's unfair, regardless of the fan base. I think that the majority of this site has Djokovic rated where he should be. Of course, maybe I'm overrating Djoker. I have the following as the favorites at RG

1. Nadal: 60% chance of winning RG. He's losing foot speed by the year. But he's still the overwhelming favorite.
2. Thiem: 15% chance of winning. He's been extremely consistent at RG.
3. Djokovic: 10% chance of winning. He's always dangerous in a best of 5 set up. But this is his worst surface by far.

Djokovic serving better than ever and he's more aggressive than ever. This is why he's been destroying people in slams lately, especially in finals. But Djoker's ability to grind has taken a hit, due to age. And clay doesn't allow Djoker's new skills to gain a huge advantage on the mud. With all of that being said, Djoker is incredibly clutch in best of 5 matches. So we can never rule him out.

Very sensible post. Sorry if I overgeneralized, I meant some (not all) tennis fans were putting Djokovic as almost co-favorite to win RG.

I agree with the rest of your post as well.

 

[Shaolin]

Is Djokovic's current level overrated on clay? Last year he lost to Checcinatos at RG, and people said he has not at his best. Sure? Nadal lost to Müller at WB 2017 and no one said Nadal was not at his best. Checcinatos is a clay specialist who played really well and defeated not only Djokovic but also Goffin. So I think Djokovic's current level on clay is that.

When Djokovic was at his absolute prime on clay he could challenge prime Nadal at RG (remember 2013). But Djokovic is (almost) 32 and now the decline should be more noticieable on his worst surface.

Who is Checcinatos? Is Checcinato suddenly Greek?

 

[OldschoolKIaus]

Compared to the Nadal everyone is overrated on clay, even Fedr and Djoko.

 

[Sysyphus]

I do think it was somewhat rash to presume his grass/HC form would also carry over to clay, given how much better he looked on grass than clay last year.

Let's see though, still early days of the clay season.

 

[Sport]

And now Nadal is about to lose to Pella. It's called Karma.

 

[Pheasant]

Very sensible post. Sorry if I overgeneralized, I meant some (not all) tennis fans were putting Djokovic as almost co-favorite to win RG.

I agree with the rest of your post as well.

It's all good. And you are generally a reasonable poster. I think that all of us occasionally succumb to some of the crazy posts made by a select few. I know that I'm definitely guilty of this. And your OP is a good one.

 

[1H-Backhand]

Who is Checcinatos? Is Checcinato suddenly Greek?

You are all getting it wrong...it's Cecchinato

 

[RF-18]

You have 2 meters tall players grinding on the baseline on every surface these days. Medvedev replicated his AO form against Djokovic today on clay. He is going toe to toe with Nole from the baseline and today he outfought Nole.

 

[augustobt]

Dude, the guy just lost a quarters of a masters. He ain't caring that much about that kind of tournament nowadays, just like Novak lost to Bautista in Doha and trashed everyone in Melbourne. Let's wait until Paris to see if this is just a slump or the guy is saving himself for the biggest tournaments.

 

[Red Rick]

I dunno, he lost earlier at IW and Miami.

 

[dr325i]

I think his last three losses are "calculated losses".
I do not expect him to win next one but go a step further. I expect him to crush those he do not care about (like Fritz) and play "nice" against those he likes more (Russians, etc.). He will probably try to avoid meeting Nadal, Thiem or others that may get unnecessary boost of confidence before RG.
RG will be a real indicator if OP's question is a YES or NO at this point

 

[IowaGuy]

When Djokovic was at his absolute prime on clay he could challenge prime Nadal at RG (remember 2013). But Djokovic is (almost) 32 and now the decline should be more noticieable on his worst surface.

Also the surface that requires the most movement (longer points, fewer aces/service winners), and where grinders can better neutralize your weapons...

 

[IowaGuy]

Very sensible post. Sorry if I overgeneralized, I meant some (not all) tennis fans were putting Djokovic as almost co-favorite to win RG.

2019 RG could be very interesting, starting to look more like 1990's clay with all the slow-court specialists and a deep field of contenders...

 

[EasyGoing]

Dude, the guy just lost a quarters of a masters. He ain't caring that much about that kind of tournament nowadays, just like Novak lost to Bautista in Doha and trashed everyone in Melbourne. Let's wait until Paris to see if this is just a slump or the guy is saving himself for the biggest tournaments.

Yeah, that’s a great plan. Lose every tournament but GS to save yourself, especially since Melbourne is end of January and RG just around the corner in June

You have 2 meters tall players grinding on the baseline on every surface these days. Medvedev replicated his AO form against Djokovic today on clay. He is going toe to toe with Nole from the baseline and today he outfought Nole.

Is this another “proof” that tennis is evolving? Please explain what is the advantage of being 2 meters tall and grinding on the baseline.

 

[KINGROGER]

I don’t think we should judge him too harshly for his result at the Monte Carlo 250.

We should wait to see how he gets on at Madrid/Rome.

 

[augustobt]

I think his last three losses are "calculated losses".
I do not expect him to win next one but go a step further. I expect him to crush those he do not care about (like Fritz) and play "nice" against those he likes more (Russians, etc.). He will probably try to avoid meeting Nadal, Thiem or others that may get unnecessary boost of confidence before RG.
RG will be a real indicator if OP's question is a YES or NO at this point

I think you're right on spot here. I just don't know if this strategy will work out in the end. Nadal will build up his confidence during these next 5 weeks.

 

[Towny]

If he's overrated in the sense that you mean that he shouldn't be co-favourite for RG, then I'd agree. However, I probably wouldn't use the term overrated as such. This is his first clay tournament so there's been nothing to 'rate'. And although he's not been playing well since the AO, anyone who has won the last 3 slams and is a past RG champion should be considered a favourite. Below defending champion and clay GOAT Nadal, but one of the favourites nonetheless. But I would agree, those who had him as co-favourite after the AO might possibly think about re-evaluating their position in light of the past few months

 

[Lleytonstation]

Djokovic is thinking "just get me to the slams" and then he will turn it on. Now this is a dangerous game, but he has been good at it for the most part. I believe he is an ADHD tennis player that struggle staying focused on certain events these days.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Is Djokovic's current level overrated on clay? Last year he lost to Checcinato at RG, and people said he has not at his best. Sure? Nadal lost to Müller at WB 2017 and no one said Nadal was not at his best. Checcinato is a clay specialist who played really well and defeated not only Djokovic but also Goffin. So I think Djokovic's current level on clay is that.

When Djokovic was at his absolute prime on clay he could challenge prime Nadal at RG (remember 2013). But Djokovic is (almost) 32 and now the decline should be more noticieable on his worst surface.

The way I see it his consistency is overrated on clay, but his best level is still underrated. And I still think he is capable of it.

A lot of people expect him to be challenging at every single clay event. In that way, expectations of him are too high on clay.

But people's regard for his best on clay, a shockingly high level, and regard for him as a potential threat to Nadal is too low (imo).

My thought on how this relates to RG? I favour Nadal as a better chance of making it to the final (better against the field) but if Novak were to make the final alongside Nadal, I would have them almost equal.

If Rafa brings his best level, he wins, he is the most dominant player ever by surface. But Djokovic is energised by this matchup, and this affects Nadal's level in some of their matches, undoubtedly.

 

[BeatlesFan]

I mean overrated in the sense that people are saying he is basically co-favorite with Nadal to win RG, not in the sense of having an overrated clay resume.

Then you should have specified that in the OP. Of course he's not "overrated" on clay in his career, he's a FO champion and destroyed Nada on clay in the tune ups in 2011. It's not his fault (along with Fed) that they had to play during Nadal's peak clay reign. He people are making him co-favorite with Nadal at RG, then they're not overrating him, they're making a prediction based on instinct and his mental dominance over Nadal in the last few years.

 

[ohiostate124]

People are still falling for Djokovic’s sandbagging I see.

Apparently Pepe was spotted in his box though so if you should be worried about anything, it’s that.

 

[Backspin1183]

If Nadal lost in the QF of a hard court tournament, would you say he is overrated on hard court as well?

 

[BeatlesFan]

Djokovic is thinking "just get me to the slams" and then he will turn it on. Now this is a dangerous game, but he has been good at it for the most part.

I don't think he's thinking "just get me to the slams," I think he's wisely trying to peak and prioritize the majors, which all players do. In his case, it's obviously the wise strategy at almost 32. A loss at MC means almost nothing since the playing conditions here are not like RG at all. Now if Novak loses early in Madrid and Rome, then it's time to be concerned. Maybe this is the beginning of another mid-2016 funk and if it is, we'll know soon enough.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Yeah, that’s a great plan. Lose every tournament but GS to save yourself, especially since Melbourne is end of January and RG just around the corner in June



Is this another “proof” that tennis is evolving? Please explain what is the advantage of being 2 meters tall and grinding on the baseline.

See, when Federer loses at his peak age of 35, the game evolves and is too much for him even though by saying he’s peak in 35 means that he evolved, too, until he loses?

When Djokovic loses, its because of wind, Pepe, external factors, family issues, the fight inside his head, warrior issues, you know? Losing because you’re 35 or 37...it’s a bullsheit Russian excuse to blame age even though all data from the past correlateds with aging players being unable to win tournaments/vs. highly ranked slam winners.

How can you expect Nole at 31 going on 32 to focus on every match? Fed at 35 was peak in an evolving game but he was peak and he should focus on every match. But not Nole. Also Pepe.

 

[Subway Tennis]

People are still falling for Djokovic’s sandbagging I see.

Apparently Pepe was spotted in his box though so if you should be worried about anything, it’s that.

Someone posted a really interesting comment that they knew this Pepe reunion was going to happen when they saw Djokovic being forced to play that stupid doubles match with Djoerdi or Marko (can't remember which brother) earlier in the year. Ostensibly at least, the brother(s) are still intermingled with Pepe. I hope this doesn't cause too many problems for Novak but Pepe Inaz being back is a big worry for sure.

 

[Lleytonstation]

I don't think he's thinking "just get me to the slams," I think he's wisely trying to peak and prioritize the majors, which all players do. In his case, it's obviously the wise strategy at almost 32. A loss at MC means almost nothing since the playing conditions here are not like RG at all. Now if Novak loses early in Madrid and Rome, then it's time to be concerned. Maybe this is the beginning of another mid-2016 funk and if it is, we'll know soon enough.

I can see this approach as well, but that sounds more like Fed's approach than Djokovic.

Fed is trying to win every tournament he enters in my opinion, but Djokovic is more "whatever" at some.

Why not just show up for the Madrid and Rome then?

 

[Sport]

If he's overrated in the sense that you mean that he shouldn't be co-favourite for RG, then I'd agree. However, I probably wouldn't use the term overrated as such. This is his first clay tournament so there's been nothing to 'rate'. And although he's not been playing well since the AO, anyone who has won the last 3 slams and is a past RG champion should be considered a favourite. Below defending champion and clay GOAT Nadal, but one of the favourites nonetheless. But I would agree, those who had him as co-favourite after the AO should might possibly think about re-evaluating their position in light of the past few months

Yes, the title of my thread was not a good decission. I should have said "Are Djokovic's chances at RG overrated?", rather than "Is Djokovic overrated on clay?".

If Nadal lost in the QF of a hard court tournament, would you say he is overrated on hard court as well?

The title of my thread was a mistake. I meant "Are Djokovic's chances at RG overrated?".

 

[Backspin1183]

Yes, the title of my thread was not a good decission. I should have said "Are Djokovic's chances at RG overrated?", rather than "Is Djokovic overrated on clay?".
The title of my thread was incorrect. I meant "Are Djokovic's chances at RG overrated?".

It's still too early for that. It's just one tournament. Medvedev also is a good player. Djokovic edged him in the Australian Open but it was his toughest match of the tournament.
Let's see where Djokovic is on clay after Rome.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

The only time I ever thought he looked that impressive on clay was 2011. Consistently throughout the entire season I mean.

Having said that, he matches up well against Nadal and only lost certain matches at RG due to mental weakness. Shouldn't be a problem now that he has an RG in the bag already.

 

[dr325i]

I think you're right on spot here. I just don't know if this strategy will work out in the end. Nadal will build up his confidence during these next 5 weeks.

Nadal does not need to build up the confidence on Clay. He needs to build up the confidence against Novak. We have seen what happened at AO. Nadal played great 6 matches. When he saw Novak across the net, he was lost. Of course, HC and dirt is a different case, however, the mental toughness may be the winner here (just like it was in 2013 when Novak broke down).
We will see in a few weeks.

 

[Sport]

It's still too early for that. It's just one tournament. Medvedev also is a good player. Djokovic edged him in the Australian Open but it was his toughest match of the tournament.
Let's see where Djokovic is on clay after Rome.

Djokovic played substantially better in the SF and final than against Medvedev, Djokovic raised his level in the late rounds. It's not like Medvedev was winning the AO if not for Djokovic.

In any case, you could be right. Maybe Medvedev was particularly inspired today and it is too early to draw conclusions of Djokovic's level on clay.

 

[Sport]

The only time I ever thought he looked that impressive on clay was 2011. Consistently throughout the entire season I mean.

Having said that, he matches up well against Nadal and only lost certain matches at RG due to mental weakness. Shouldn't be a problem now that he has an RG in the bag already.

Djokovic had no mental weakness at RG 2012, RG 2013 or RG 2014, Nadal just played better those finals. Djokovic doesn't match up well against Nadal on clay at RG. Djokovic is not the same on clay than hard. That is what I meant in this thread, some people pretend Djokovic is equally dangerous on clay than hard, which is not the case.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

He had no mental weakness at RG 2012, RG 2013 or RG 2014, Nadal just played better those finals. Djokovic doesn't match up well against Nadal on clay at RG. Djokovic is not the same on clay than hard.

IMO he did lose in 2013 and 2014 since he got tight. Winning RG was the mission of his entire season by that point.

In 2012 Nadal was just better, but IIRC he also lost the Masters clay matches to Nadal that year.

How their non-RG clay matches went are, IMO, how their RG matches would've gone if Novak already had an RG title. Basically 50-50.

 

[Zardoz7/12]

I still stand by my thread that something is wrong with Djokovic, he looks jaded and just doesn't look entirely interested out there, this issue has happened at Indian Wells, Miami and now Monte Carlo.
He might be saving himself for the French Open.

 

[IowaGuy]

I still stand by my thread that something is wrong with Djokovic, he looks jaded and just doesn't look entirely interested out there, this issue has happened at Indian Wells, Miami and now Monte Carlo.
He might be saving himself for the French Open.

Sounds a lot like Sampras in the late 1990's, outside of the grand slam tournaments

 

[Towser83]

Obviously his current level isn't that great or isn't what it used to be. I think with 2017/2018 he was on a run of general bad play on all surfaces so now that hes won 3 slams in a row, a lot of people including myself were expecting him to return to a usual level on clay (I'm talking about 2011-2016 but even in 2008/2009) he had some good results on the surface and challenged for titles)

However given his play at IW and Miami I was no longer expecting Djokovic to do that well on clay.

So it's a weird one because I dont know if it's because his clay game has dropped or because hes once again in an overall slump. His slump ended between queens last year and the Australian open this year. Would have been interesting to see him play on clay within that time frame. Last year he had good moments on clay but he really needed that Wimbledon win to give him back full confidence. Now it looks like hes lost something again. Not taking anything away from medvedev but the losses are mounting up for Djokovic now

With Nadal losing at Wimbledon 2017 obviously that wasnt near his best in career terms but the fact he'd not done well at Wimbledon since 2011 made it less surprising. Like I said I think because Djokovic is on a run of 3 slams and had been playing well again and this was the first time hes played clay since that return to form and getting back to number 1, people were expecting him to play well. If he makes a habit of not doing well on clay (even if he is winning on other surfaces) then people will accept this as his current and expected level. With Nadal slightly different because through many of the years he didnt do well at Wimbledon he was still playing well just weeks before on clay. At the moment Djokovic is not winning anywhere

 

[Sport]

IMO he did lose in 2013 and 2014 since he got tight. Winning RG was the mission of his entire season by that point.

In 2012 Nadal was just better, but IIRC he also lost the Masters clay matches to Nadal that year.

How their non-RG clay matches went are, IMO, how their RG matches would've gone if Novak already had an RG title. Basically 50-50.

I am sorry but that sounds like an excuse. Nadal has 11 RG, Djokovic only 1 RG, and you are saying Djokovic lost to Nadal the RG finals because of "mental weakness"? Nadal is also 6-1 against Djokovic at RG, so it doesn't make sense to say that Djokovic match up well against Nadal at RG.

Nadal has not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight, not nine but ten more RG than Djokovic. A difference of 10 RG suggests that Nadal is much better on clay than Djokovic. To say that Djokovic lost the RG finals against Nadal due to "mental weakness" is an excuse.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

I am sorry but that sounds like an excuse. Nadal has 11 RG, Djokovic only 1 RG, and you are saying Djokovic lost to Nadal the RG finals because of "mental weakness"? Nadal is also 6-1 against Djokovic at RG, so it doesn't make sense to say that Djokovic match up well against Nadal at RG.

Nadal has not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight, not nine but ten more RG than Djokovic. A difference of 10 RG suggests that Nadal is much better on clay than Djokovic. To say that Djokovic lost the RG finals against Nadal due to "mental weakness" is an excuse.

Doesn't really matter. Novak had more to lose in 2013 and that showed in the 5th set. Also in 2014 after he won the 1st set and then again in the 4th when he almost pushed it to 5.

Their matches at RG were sometimes decided by Novak caring too much.

2006, 2007, and 2008 aren't really relevant either btw. Novak hadn't asserted himself over Nadal in the clay Masters yet.

The notion that Nadal matches up better against Novak at RG than clay Masters hinges on 2 results really, which can easily be explained away by Novak getting tight.

 

[aman92]

Most overrated player in history never mind on just clay

 

[Sport]

Doesn't really matter. Novak had more to lose in 2013 and that showed in the 5th set. Also in 2014 after he won the 1st set and then again in the 4th when he almost pushed it to 5.

Their matches at RG were sometimes decided by Novak caring too much.

2006, 2007, and 2008 aren't really relevant either btw. Novak hadn't asserted himself over Nadal in the clay Masters yet.

The notion that Nadal matches up better against Novak at RG than clay Masters hinges on 2 results really, which can easily be explained away by Novak getting tight.

Doesn't really matter my ass. Nadal has 10 more RG than Djokovic. Why hasn't Djokovic won 4 or 5 RG? Nadal is the superior RG player, so the Djokovic was "mentally weak" is just an excuse. The fact that Nadal leads the H2H over Djokovic 6-1 at RG illustrates that superiority of Nadal at RG (2006, 2007 and 2008 are relevant just like 2015 is relevant, you can't just cherry-pick only the years that favor your favorite player).

Nadal is much better than Djokovic on clay, so the "Djokovic was mentally weak in the RG finals" is just an excuse. You can't pretend that Djokovic is the same on clay than hard.

 

[Towser83]

Djokovic had no mental weakness at RG 2012, RG 2013 or RG 2014, Nadal just played better those finals. Djokovic doesn't match up well against Nadal on clay at RG. Djokovic is not the same on clay than hard. That is what I meant in this thread, some people pretend Djokovic is equally dangerous on clay than hard, which is not the case.

I think he did have a slight mental weakness in 2013 when he fell into the net, but being mentally strong is part of tennis and Nadal also had slightly slipped up and not really played his absolute best. In 2014 I think Djokovic showed a bit of mental weakness as well when he won the first set and Nadal that year had not been playing anywhere near his best but he didnt really put his foot on the gas.

But why this is is because Nadal is so hard to beat at RG that usually any time someone is matching him there they know it might be the only chance to beat him and it puts pressure on them. Nadal on the other hand can have wobbles but almost always plays the big points great. It's not an excuse it's one reason why he's such a great player.

On the other hand I think Djokovic benefitted in 2011 slightly from Nadal suffering some doubts in their matches in Madrid and Rome, he actually puts Nadal off his game by appearing fearless even though he has to absolutely red line to keep up with him.

But anyway, Nadal at his best is always going to be better than Djokovic on clay. The mental aspect is something that can swing a match but on clay its Djokovic who needs mental weakness from Nadal more than the other way around - 2015 at RG is really the only year where Djokovic was clearly playing better tennis (2013 was close but Nadal was still overall better) if he really raised his game to a level most people dont against Nadal then Nadal can start to feel the pressure and make more mistakes. So its Djokovic who relies on the mental pressure more, because his clay Game isn't as good

 

[Sport]

I think he did have a slight mental weakness in 2013 when he fell into the net, but being mentally strong is part of tennis and Nadal also had slightly slipped up and not really played his absolute best. In 2014 I think Djokovic showed a bit of mental weakness as well when he won the first set and Nadal that year had not been playing anywhere near his best but he didnt really put his foot on the gas.

But why this is is because Nadal is so hard to beat at RG that usually any time someone is matching him there they know it might be the only chance to beat him and it puts pressure on them. Nadal on the other hand can have wobbles but almost always plays the big points great. It's not an excuse it's one reason why he's such a great player.

On the other hand I think Djokovic benefitted in 2011 slightly from Nadal suffering some doubts in their matches in Madrid and Rome, he actually puts Nadal off his game by appearing fearless even though he has to absolutely red line to keep up with him.

But anyway, Nadal at his best is always going to be better than Djokovic on clay. The mental aspect is something that can swing a match but on clay its Djokovic who needs mental weakness from Nadal more than the other way around - 2015 at RG is really the only year where Djokovic was clearly playing better tennis (2013 was close but Nadal was still overall better) if he really raised his game to a level most people dont against Nadal then Nadal can start to feel the pressure and make more mistakes. So its Djokovic who relies on the mental pressure more, because his clay Game isn't as good

The volley Djokovic missed was not even break point so it is not clear whether Djokovic would have broken Nadal and eventually won the match anyway.

Also, it was not a "mental mistake" but a technical one. Djokovic has never been an excellent volleyer. He also missed an easy volley against Nadal in the Olympics 2008 semifinal, which costed him the match.