Is Djokovic the favorite for the French Open?

[Seany]

A long way to go I know, and a lot of injuries/shock results may happen before then, but at this current moment what do you think?

Clay is still clay, and Rafa is still Rafa, yes Djokovic beat him a lot on clay last year, but best of 5 is a different ball game. However everyone can see how dominant Djokovic is over Nadal at this current time.

To me this is the most interesting FO in years, we also must take into account that Fed has shown he's capable of taking out peak Djokovic on clay, and Murray looks to be improving at a very rapid rate under Lendl, so all 4 guys very much in the equation. The draw will be important, If Djoker gets Fed and Rafa gets Murray, we may get a Fed vs Murray final. If Fed gets Rafa and Djoker gets Murray then the final looks much predictable to be Rafa vs Djoker.

If we do indeed get a Rafa vs Djoker final, Nadal will know that he HAS to win that match or things will be looking very bad if he wants to add to his 10 GS's. He simply can't let Djoko beat him in the final on what is essentially HIS court, his best surface, over 5. If that were to happen he may never beat Djokovic again.

Really can't wait, the dynamic in men's tennis is very interesting right now, Murray can beat anybody by the looks of it, and Fed is still a bad match for Djoker.

 

[Sentinel]

Fred will be in Rafa's half, so it'll be a repeat of AO. Even if Fred is in Nole's half, we have to remember that FO 2011 was a sort-of fluke for Rogi. He's a year older and Nole is getting stronger and more experienced.

Rafa has to win FO, but Nole too has to win FO. I'll go with Nole.

 

[veritech]

tough to tell right now. if rafa and nole meet in at least one of the finals of the MS on clay, which they will, it will reveal a whole lot about what to expect at the french.

 

[namelessone]

A long way to go I know, and a lot of injuries/shock results may happen before then, but at this current moment what do you think?

Clay is still clay, and Rafa is still Rafa, yes Djokovic beat him a lot on clay last year, but best of 5 is a different ball game. However everyone can see how dominant Djokovic is over Nadal at this current time.

To me this is the most interesting FO in years, we also must take into account that Fed has shown he's capable of taking out peak Djokovic on clay, and Murray looks to be improving at a very rapid rate under Lendl, so all 4 guys very much in the equation. The draw will be important, If Djoker gets Fed and Rafa gets Murray, we may get a Fed vs Murray final. If Fed gets Rafa and Djoker gets Murray then the final looks much predictable to be Rafa vs Djoker.

If we do indeed get a Rafa vs Djoker final, Nadal will know that he HAS to win that match or things will be looking very bad if he wants to add to his 10 GS's. He simply can't let Djoko beat him in the final on what is essentially HIS court, his best surface, over 5. If that were to happen he may never beat Djokovic again.

Really can't wait, the dynamic in men's tennis is very interesting right now, Murray can beat anybody by the looks of it, and Fed is still a bad match for Djoker.

Whether Djoko will be fav or not depends on whether he beats Rafa on clay before RG. If he does so, then I think it's safe to say that he would favorite against anyone, even against the 6 times champ.

 

[namelessone]

Fred will be in Rafa's half, so it'll be a repeat of AO. Even if Fred is in Nole's half, we have to remember that FO 2011 was a sort-of fluke for Rogi. He's a year older and Nole is getting stronger and more experienced.

Rafa has to win FO, but Nole too has to win FO. I'll go with Nole.

Can Rafa lose the nr.2 spot to Murray before RG?

Murray has almost nothing of note to defend until RG whereas Rafa has 4 finals and 2 wins to defend.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Djokovic. I am pretty sure he will win the French this year. Nadal's best chance at a slam this year will be Wimbledon.

 

[Towser83]

Murray will not beat Nadal at RG, doubt he will ever beat him on clay.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Murray will not beat Nadal at RG, doubt he will ever beat him on clay.

Agreed. The idea of Murray beating Nadal at RG is purely comical. I could see Murray maybe beating Nadal in a best of 3 on clay someday, but that is it. The only way Nadal would not be in the RG final is in the very unlikely event he drops to #3 before then and isnt upgraded to #2 seed anyway by RG officials and then draws Djokovic in the semis, or if he runs into someone playing like Soderling in an early round on a slightly off day. No way he loses to Federer or Murray in the semis.

 

[Towser83]

Agreed. The idea of Murray beating Nadal at RG is purely comical. I could see Murray maybe beating Nadal in a best of 3 on clay someday, but that is it. The only way Nadal would not be in the RG final is in the very unlikely event he drops to #3 before then and isnt upgraded to #2 seed anyway by RG officials and then draws Djokovic in the semis, or if he runs into someone playing like Soderling in an early round on a slightly off day. No way he loses to Federer or Murray in the semis.

Yeah maybe Murray could beat him on clay but Nadal would have to be well below normal form, I'm talking the sort of form I expect him to be playing at 29 or 30. The only way he loses before the final at RG is if he gets injured, or as you say someone like Soderling has a huge day. Laugh if you want, but the only oplayer I can see hitting massive shots and doing a soderling is Del Potro, though I don't expect him to. But there aren't any other players who can play on clay and do that in my opinion, None who are good enough players (both Soderling and Delpo have been top 4)

 

[NadalAgassi]

I actually agree Del Potro has more chance of upsetting Nadal at Roland Garros than Federer or Murray would. Federer or Murray would actually be well down the list of people who would beat Nadal at RG. It just wouldnt be happening.

 

[ledwix]

Nadal is a six-time champion and Djokovic is a zero-time finalist, so Nadal is the favorite in general. Djokovic is more likely to lose before the final than Nadal, but if they both make the final, Djokovic has the advantage.

 

[Clarky21]

Cvac by a mile.

 

[cknobman]

WTH how is Djokovic winning this poll???

Nadal is the current title holder, tied for all time FO titles with Borg, arguable the greatest clay court player of all time, currently healthy and Djokovic has never even been to an FO final!!!!

I know I know Djokovic is currently the best player in the world and has beaten Rafa the last 2 time on clay but the FO is another story.

Im not saying Djokovic couldnt/wouldnt win Im just questioning how he could be considered the favorite.

 

[MixieP]

Fred will be in Rafa's half, so it'll be a repeat of AO. Even if Fred is in Nole's half, we have to remember that FO 2011 was a sort-of fluke for Rogi. He's a year older and Nole is getting stronger and more experienced.

Rafa has to win FO, but Nole too has to win FO. I'll go with Nole.

Me too, Senti, and I'll go with Murray as well.

 

[batz]

Agreed. The idea of Murray beating Nadal at RG is purely comical. I could see Murray maybe beating Nadal in a best of 3 on clay someday, but that is it. The only way Nadal would not be in the RG final is in the very unlikely event he drops to #3 before then and isnt upgraded to #2 seed anyway by RG officials and then draws Djokovic in the semis, or if he runs into someone playing like Soderling in an early round on a slightly off day. No way he loses to Federer or Murray in the semis.

Murray took a 6-2 set off Rafa at Monaco last year. He lost his RG semi in straights but it was nothing like a demolition - Murray had 18 break points in 3 sets and could only take 3 of them. He lost each set by a single break. If they meet again, I would suggest that Murray would be an improved player in comparison to last year - could we say the same for Rafa?

Rafa would be hot favourite no doubt; but I don't think it's laughable to suggest that Murray could be a threat to him.

 

[MixieP]

Agreed. The idea of Murray beating Nadal at RG is purely comical. I could see Murray maybe beating Nadal in a best of 3 on clay someday, but that is it. The only way Nadal would not be in the RG final is in the very unlikely event he drops to #3 before then and isnt upgraded to #2 seed anyway by RG officials and then draws Djokovic in the semis, or if he runs into someone playing like Soderling in an early round on a slightly off day. No way he loses to Federer or Murray in the semis.

Yes, let's build up our boy Rafa. He's invincible, unconquerable and insatiable. He plays with high intensity, high illusion and his firm arse is firmly placed on his high throne. He cannot lose. Unless he runs into Florian MAYER, of course. Which he won't.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Yes, let's build up our boy Rafa. He's invincible, unconquerable and insatiable. He plays with high intensity, high illusion and his firm arse is firmly placed on his high throne. He cannot lose. Unless he runs into Florian MAYER, of course. Which he won't.

I already said I fully expect him to lose to Djokovic in the Roland Garros final so what are you talking about.

 

[NadalAgassi]

If they meet again, I would suggest that Murray would be an improved player in comparison to last year - could we say the same for Rafa?

Since Rafa played his worst clay tennis since 2004 last year, it is hard to imagine he wouldnt be an improved player in comparision to last year on clay. It would be hard to not be.

 

[Telepatic]

At FO Nole could lose to either Fed, Nad or even Murray (as we've seen in Rome)

On the other hand, Rafito can lose only to Nole at FO.

 

[BigForehand]

****** will cakewalk his way to the Final with easy draws as always.

He'll abuse Federer backhand and steamroll murray who sucks on clay in SF. Finals he'll beat a tired opponent.

He pushes too well on clay to lose this tournament. A soderling-type player will not come up this year.

 

[Mustard]

At this moment, I still say Nadal is the favourite. The clay-court masters series events may change this, but Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 French Opens. He's the champion, and it's up to the other players to try and take it from him.

 

[Hood_Man]

We're still nearly 3 and a half/4 months away, but I'd say unless he falls off the face of the earth he's probably still joint favourite.

I dont expect him to win everything, but even if he wins 1 clay masters instead of 2 or 3 I think that'll be enough to generate momentum.

 

[OddJack]

Fred will be in Rafa's half, so it'll be a repeat of AO. Even if Fred is in Nole's half, we have to remember that FO 2011 was a sort-of fluke for Rogi. He's a year older and Nole is getting stronger and more experienced.

Rafa has to win FO, but Nole too has to win FO. I'll go with Nole.

eheheehe


Was sort of fluke for Rogi...

Sort of vandasteek bs from Senti

Sort of brain hiccup.

 

[batz]

Since Rafa played his worst clay tennis since 2004 last year, it is hard to imagine he wouldnt be an improved player in comparision to last year on clay. It would be hard to not be.

You say this as if it's self evident but I'm not sure it is. He's done a lot more losing than he usually does by the time he hits RG - why is it a given he will play better than last year? And what evidence is there that Rafa played his worst on clay last year- he won MC and RG and made finals at Madrid and Rome - the only thing that was different was that Noel was able to beat him.

 

[NJ1]

For me, Nadal is the favorite for RG, his 5 set clay record is immense. On other surfaces the edge is with Djokovic though. I'm looking forward to seeing Murray's continued improvement too...

 

[NadalAgassi]

And what evidence is there that Rafa played his worst on clay last year

Watching him play on clay last year should already be enough, and if you did watch him play and dont see it I dont know what anyone could tell you. Losing a set to someone outside the top 100 on clay, and nearly losing to Isner at the French would also suffice.

 

[Towser83]

At FO Nole could lose to either Fed, Nad or even Murray (as we've seen in Rome)

On the other hand, Rafito can lose only to Nole at FO.

Could Murray beat him on 5 sets on clay though? On hardcourt they are closest and Djokovic closed out the 5th set and should have won in two. Not saying it's impossible but it woud be a massive step up from Rome to beat Novak at the French.

 

[Towser83]

Murray took a 6-2 set off Rafa at Monaco last year. He lost his RG semi in straights but it was nothing like a demolition - Murray had 18 break points in 3 sets and could only take 3 of them. He lost each set by a single break. If they meet again, I would suggest that Murray would be an improved player in comparison to last year - could we say the same for Rafa?

Rafa would be hot favourite no doubt; but I don't think it's laughable to suggest that Murray could be a threat to him.

He can push nadal for sure, but I don't see him taking 3 sets off him unless Nadal really plays below himself or Murray plays better than he ever has in his life and has nerves of steel.

 

[batz]

Watching him play on clay last year should already be enough, and if you did watch him play and dont see it I dont know what anyone could tell you. Losing a set to someone outside the top 100 on clay, and nearly losing to Isner at the French would also suffice.

OK - even if we accept that it was his worst clay season ever last year (I'm not sure it was but it doesn't matter) - what has changed in the last 12 months that would suggest he will hit the heights on the red stuff this year?

If he looked a bit wobbly last year after losing MS finals to Noel, why should we expect him to have regained confidence this year?

 

[kishnabe]

The favourite for the French Open: Nadal by miles.
The favourite between Nadal Djokovic French Open Final: Djokovic.

Will Djokovic get to the French Open Final?: Depends on Federer or Murray

 

[batz]

He can push nadal for sure, but I don't see him taking 3 sets off him unless Nadal really plays below himself or Murray plays better than he ever has in his life and has nerves of steel.

Murray made 18 break points in 3 sets in last year's semi. Those are not the numbers of a no-hoper.

Rafa would be hot favourite, no doubt - but would it be the shock of the century if Murray were to beat him? 2 or 3 years ago yes - I'm not so sure now.

 

[NadalAgassi]

OK - even if we accept that it was his worst clay season ever last year (I'm not sure it was but it doesn't matter) - what has changed in the last 12 months that would suggest he will hit the heights on the red stuff this year?

If he looked a bit wobbly last year after losing MS finals to Noel, why should we expect him to have regained confidence this year?

He looked bad on clay for his standards last year even before he was losing to Djokovic. So I dont think it had much to do with being affected by the losses to Djokovic, the first which didnt come until he had completed almost 2 full Masters events worth of clay tennis. He seems to be performing well now, and while clay is the surface he in general will decline the most I still cant see him performing as poorly as last year.

Anyway I am not predicting a revolution of clay glory for Nadal this year. I am predicting him to be dethroned at the French by Djokovic. I however also cant see anyway he loses to Federer or Murray at Roland Garros. The most Murray has ever been able to prove is able to take 1 set from Nadal on clay once in their careers. He is a long way from winning 3 at the most important event.

I would be a bit surprised if he even made the semis for a 2nd straight year. Last year was his first semi ever there and he had a cakewalk draw, still almost losing to Troicki who choked. I think Murray could end up having a very good year this year and could win one of Wimbledon or the U.S Open, but on clay he will always be limited.

 

[batz]

He looked bad on clay for his standards last year even before he was losing to Djokovic. So I dont think it had much to do with being affected by the losses to Djokovic, the first which didnt come until he had completed almost 2 full Masters events worth of clay tennis. He seems to be performing well now, and while clay is the surface he in general will decline the most I still cant see him performing as poorly as last year.

Anyway I am not predicting a revolution of clay glory for Nadal this year. I am predicting him to be dethroned at the French by Djokovic. I however also cant see anyway he loses to Federer or Murray at Roland Garros. The most Murray has ever been able to prove is able to take 1 set from Nadal on clay once in their careers. He is a long way from winning 3 at the most important event.

He'd lost back to back MS finals to Noel going into the clay season.

Murray was also able to prove that he can create 18 break points in a semifinal @ RG; 5 more than Rafa created against him. IMO, that is more relevant than taking a set off Rafa @ MC.

 

[Towser83]

Murray made 18 break points in 3 sets in last year's semi. Those are not the numbers of a no-hoper.

Rafa would be hot favourite, no doubt - but would it be the shock of the century if Murray were to beat him? 2 or 3 years ago yes - I'm not so sure now.

I've seen it before with Federer getting 17 break points and only converting one. Djokovic almost lost the AO final with 20 break points. Look I never said Murray was a no hoper, stop over-reacting. But I don't think he can take 3 sets off Nadal on clay. I mean he only got one off him at the US Open last year and lost 2 sets by 6-2 scorelines.

 

[batz]

I've seen it before with Federer getting 17 break points and only converting one. Djokovic almost lost the AO final with 20 break points. Look I never said Murray was a no hoper, stop over-reacting. But I don't think he can take 3 sets off Nadal on clay.

Fair enough mate - I don't think he will, but I think he can (if you see what I mean)

 

[Towser83]

Fair enough mate - I don't think he will, but I think he can (if you see what I mean)

yeah true. More accurate to say I don't think he will. That's not a slur on Murray, just my personal opinion, I mean hardly anyone has been able to do that, only Soderling on an incredible day for him. But if Murray does it, all credit to him. Maybe Lendl can improve his game on clay further and the 3 masters on clay should tell us something.

 

[Tammo]

Nadal is. 6 time RG champ against Djokovic who has never beaten Nadal in 3 (?) tries at RG, and never has made a final either.

 

[boredone3456]

If he has the kind of clay season he did last year we will see, the French Open is in May and its not even February yet...long time away.

Right now...I'd say no. Nadal has clearly stamped the French as his turf and Novak hasn't even been to the final there yet, and he has a ton of clay points to defend before he even gets there. If he doesn't match them..then no. If he does or comes close..then maybe, but right now I'd say the favorite is still Rafa.

 

[namelessone]

****** will cakewalk his way to the Final with easy draws as always.

He'll abuse Federer backhand and steamroll murray who sucks on clay in SF. Finals he'll beat a tired opponent.

He pushes too well on clay to lose this tournament. A soderling-type player will not come up this year.

It's hilarious how often the same bullsh*t comes up.

What the hell is a hard draw for Nadal on clay outside of Djokovic and maybe DelPo? Ferrer? Fed? Murray?

Do me a favor: give me your hardest draw for Nadal in RG for the first 4-5 rounds, based on the players he could met(according to ranking/seeding).

 

[dafinch]

Let's see, just about a year ago, I heard, Nole couldn't put together 2 big tournaments in a row, then he won IW after the AO, beating Nadal in the process. Then I heard, he couldn't beat Nadal in a revenge match, so they played at Miami, and, whoops! Then I heard he couldn't beat Nadal on dirt, ESPECIALLY in front of his homies, so, they played at Barcelona, and, whoops! Then I heard he couldn't beat Nadal in a revenge match on dirt, that, having been embarrassed in straight sets in front of the adoring home crowd, BP would be ESPECIALLY motivated for revenge at the Italian Open. Unfortunately, he didn't win any sets there, either. Then I heard "Novak has never made the FINALS of Wimbledon, and. YES the 5 sets is a big advantage" Amazingly, he managed to overcome all those obstacles at Wimbledon! Then I heard, he can't beat Nadal in back to back Slam finals, especially since he'd not won at the US Open. How'd that turn out again? Then, I heard, 2011 was a once in a lifetime result, Nole played over his head, and Nadal would be energized after resting and would set things straight not to mention set the tone for the new season at the Aussie. Seven and counting, like I've said before, Nadal apologists keeping drawing a line in the sand, daring Nole to cross it, he steps over said line, bytche slaps them, they stagger backwards, and promptly draw a NEW line in the sand, lol. And now, they're like, Nole can't win best of five, on dirt, against a player with an even number of letters in his name. Ok, I made that last part up, but you get the idea. Separate from all of this is the fact that when players have played 600 matches-a figure that Nadal reached last year-history strongly suggest that it isn't a question of IF they will decline, only how much and how fast. I suspect more mystifying losses like the kind Nadal suffered late last year will start cropping up. He had an incredibly easy draw, with Favorite Whipping Boys Gonzalez and Birdbrain rolling over for him (not to mention Fed, though he is at least still somewhat formidable). Unless Nadal reverses the results of last year's clay court results at Barcelona and Italy, he will NOT be favored, nor should he be.

 

[MichaelNadal]

The favourite for the French Open: Nadal by miles.
The favourite between Nadal Djokovic French Open Final: Djokovic.

Will Djokovic get to the French Open Final?: Depends on Federer or Murray

This is pretty much how I see it, as other said, the masters series tournaments leading into RG will decide who the favorite is really.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Murray was also able to prove that he can create 18 break points in a semifinal @ RG; 5 more than Rafa created against him. IMO, that is more relevant than taking a set off Rafa @ MC.

For another player that would be meaningful, but in this case not really. Federer gets about 20 break points in almost every final (or semifinal) he plays vs Nadal at Roland Garros, almost always wins a set, and usually is well up in 1 of the 3 sets he loses. In other words he almost annually plays a much closer match with Nadal at Roland Garros then the Nadal-Murray match there was last year. Yet despite this I still also noted Federer had no chance of beating Nadal at Roland Garros, and as you can see nobody disputed that, not even Federer fans. It all comes down to the dynamics of a clay court match against Nadal, if you are even good enough to make it somewhat respectable that is.

 

[wimble10]

Djokovic is lacking a FO title and so surely it will be a top focus. Whether he can overcome arguably the best clay courter ever, only time will tell.

 

[BrooklynNY]

No way Nadal loses to anyone but Djoker in a best of 5 on clay setting.

I agree Murray could take him in a 2/3 but It would take a complete Nadal meltdown or him to withdraw from the tournament for Murray to get past him.

I don't know if Delpo is back yet, but if the ball is moving quickly, it can only help him since he will get to more balls on the clay.

 

[wimble10]

great video of Federer's 2009 FO :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ho-k38tVX0

 

[PaulFCB]

It will be interesting to see who Djoker plays in the semi's...it could be Federer, it could be Murray or anyone else if these 2 lose.
I think Djokovic will try to be as fit as he can for the FO this time cause last year he had problems after pwning Nadal and took a break before Wimbledon, only to win it in style .

 

[Clarky21]

It will be interesting to see who Djoker plays in the semi's...it could be Federer, it could be Murray or anyone else if these 2 lose.
I think Djokovic will try to be as fit as he can for the FO this time cause last year he had problems after pwning Nadal and took a break before Wimbledon, only to win it in style .

If Magneto won Wimbledon in style last year it some of the worst style I have ever seen. He was average throughout that whole slam,and was fortunate he got his pigeon on the final to gift him the title without really having to work for it.

 

[bullfan]

I do think that we'll have to factor in Novak's serve, so far it doesn't seem to be what it was in 2010. Of course, that doesn't mean that he won't win, but we'll have to see how the clay season goes. I also do think that there's huge pressure on both Rafa and Novak should they meet in the FO finals.

 

[PaulFCB]

I would also like to see a Nadal-Isner in the 4th Round or QF since a 1st round isn't possible anymore.

 

[Mike Sams]

This is pretty much how I see it, as other said, the masters series tournaments leading into RG will decide who the favorite is really.

I think Federer can do better against Nadal on fast clay with the fast balls as opposed to the blue hardcourt-clay at the AO, oddly enough. His first 3 sets against Nadal at FO last year were quite close. And he pushed Nadal to 3 tough sets in Madrid a month earlier.