N
Nathaniel_Near
Guest
Don't worry, I was trolling you.
Is Djokovic the favorite for the French Open?
- Thread starter Seany
- Start date
Don't worry, I was trolling you.
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
I'm not the one who brought up Fed. MichaelNadal said if Djoko wins RG he will be at Fed's level of dominance. I say if he wins RG after winning the other 3 slams, his level of dominance will be superior. It has everything to do with Fed if he tried to win the 4 in a row but couldn't and someone else does it. And it's not just RG, Fed was never close to winning 2 masters on clay in one season, least of all by dominating Rafa.
For the record I don't even think Djoko will do it but if he did, it would deserve proper recognition.
Mustard
Bionic Poster
Ah. I walked right into that.
He could. His game is better suited to clay imo.
Just the opposite. It's Djokovic who has figured out Rafa. Rafa is playing defense most of the time against Nole.
mcenroefan
Hall of Fame
We need to see how they are playing during the CC season but, if it's similar to last year, I'd be shocked if Nole weren't the betting favorite.
I feel strongly that Nole would have won last year's FO final in 3-4 sets if he had gotten past Fed.
I feel strongly that Nole would have won last year's FO final in 3-4 sets if he had gotten past Fed.
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
You might be right but I think he can still improve. It seems like other players have got used to his game and figured out how to beat him.
swordtennis
G.O.A.T.
Nadal is favorite no props even from his fans?
Nadal is 6 time champion 10 majors.
AO hardcourt slower than FO clay.
Kinda confused about the figuring out Nadal thing.
Never been that hard to figure out.
You have to have cyborg-humanoid machina stamina and out last him or ace/volley him off the court.
If Djokovic beats Nadal at the French that will be the greatest spectacle in the gladiatorial sense of the word.
wow
Nadal is 6 time champion 10 majors.
AO hardcourt slower than FO clay.
Kinda confused about the figuring out Nadal thing.
Never been that hard to figure out.
You have to have cyborg-humanoid machina stamina and out last him or ace/volley him off the court.
If Djokovic beats Nadal at the French that will be the greatest spectacle in the gladiatorial sense of the word.
wow
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
Lol
I would never bet money against Rafa in an RG final. Never ever. Don't care how many times other players beat him elsewhere.
Yes. But will Nadal be able to change his game? It seems like he has hit a brick wall with Djokovic. Nadal has been overtaken and seems like it will be an uphill battle to beating Nole..
mcenroefan
Hall of Fame
There are many who are attributing Nole's domination of Nadal to increased stamina but I think it's more than just stamina.
I think Nole improved his play (most notably his ROS and his FH--especially the extreme angle cross-court FH) He also has seen a return to form on his serve.
These improvements have allowed him to play new patterns against Nadal that are designed to:
1. either force an error from Nadal---mainly his BH side or
2. force a short ball that is an easy put-away opportunity for Nole
So, he is winning more of the longer rallies and is more easily able to move to offense on short balls.
Put simply, in long rallies, Nole is very good at getting to Nadal's BH.
On Nadal's serve, Nole pressures almost every game.
Nole also moves better than Nadal.
All of this has led to a long series of wins and extreme confidence.
The sum of this also leads me to believe that it will be very difficult for Nadal to turn the tide unless he can force a stamina based match which is the only area where I feel that Nadal still has the edge.
I think Nole improved his play (most notably his ROS and his FH--especially the extreme angle cross-court FH) He also has seen a return to form on his serve.
These improvements have allowed him to play new patterns against Nadal that are designed to:
1. either force an error from Nadal---mainly his BH side or
2. force a short ball that is an easy put-away opportunity for Nole
So, he is winning more of the longer rallies and is more easily able to move to offense on short balls.
Put simply, in long rallies, Nole is very good at getting to Nadal's BH.
On Nadal's serve, Nole pressures almost every game.
Nole also moves better than Nadal.
All of this has led to a long series of wins and extreme confidence.
The sum of this also leads me to believe that it will be very difficult for Nadal to turn the tide unless he can force a stamina based match which is the only area where I feel that Nadal still has the edge.
Clarky21
Banned
Lol
I would never bet money against Rafa in an RG final. Never ever. Don't care how many times other players beat him elsewhere.
If so then you will be losing some money because if Dr.Igor's FrankenCvac makes the RG final he's got it in the bag regardless if Nadal is on the other side of the net or not.
ChanceEncounter
Professional
If Djokovic is better skill-wise and all else is equal, that means Djokovic is the better overall player.
Think about it, why do people consider Nadal a matchup advantage against Federer? Because all he needs to do to win against Federer is keep hitting it to his backhand and he'll win the majority of the rallies. It's a very specific gameplan that works specifically against Federer because Federer has a one-handed backhand that struggles with Nadal's topspin. Nadal wouldn't try this strategy against Nole or Murray (or nearly anybody else) because it's not as advantageous.
Djokovic simply plays his normal game against Nadal. He doesn't pick on Nadal. He doesn't try to pin him into a particular corner because Nadal's backhand, while inferior, is still good enough to do some harm, particularly with the short slice or the strong crosscourt backhand. He tries to move Nadal around, dictate points with good court positioning, and rely on his movement and stamina in the event that Nadal gets the upper hand to try to get a chance to take control and move Nadal around again.
This is the exact same strategy he uses against everybody else. Earlier in Djokovic's career, this didn't work as well because he wasn't as good a player (he mainly lacked one thing: fitness). Now, he has the means to do this without exhausting himself.
Let's face it, you don't go up 14-4 on a player that has a matchup advantage unless you're just significantly more talented than he is. Nadal is not significantly more talented than Djokovic, nor was he at any point in their careers. Early on, Nadal had a lot of success because his game was much more polished than Djokovic and Djokovic lacked fitness. That's changed now, and Djokovic is simply the better player right now. Maybe Nadal can raise his level to meet him.
M
monfed
Guest
This. I think Davydenko is a worse matchup for Nadal compared to Novak. Novak's got his game exactly where he wants it to be(although AO 2012 wasn't his best tennis by a mile) but still the main thing is that Nadal's BH abuse doesn't do s*** against Novak, so he loses. The BH abuse works against Fed but not against Nole.It's really that simple IMO.
PrinceMoron
Legend
Murray can only get better on clay with Lendl helping him. They said the AO was too soon to reap the benefits, but actually I think Murray was surprisingly good. Now they have until May to make some serious progress, will be interesting at least for sure.
Everyone around here seems to think Murray is a no-hoper at the FO, so it is a really good opportunity for Lendl to make a difference.
Everyone around here seems to think Murray is a no-hoper at the FO, so it is a really good opportunity for Lendl to make a difference.
ace_pace
Rookie
I still think the favourite is Nadal. I mean HE lives on clay. Even if hes been beaten on clay before, in a GS final, hes a totally different person, at least at RGs anyway.
Also, there's Federer, Novaks RGs worse enemy >
If Novak beats Nadal, it will be the end of Nadal in the same way nadal did to Fed at the Wimby (cant remember which lol). It'll also put Novak into the GOAT contest and most probably kick Nadal out of it.
Also, there's Federer, Novaks RGs worse enemy >
If Novak beats Nadal, it will be the end of Nadal in the same way nadal did to Fed at the Wimby (cant remember which lol). It'll also put Novak into the GOAT contest and most probably kick Nadal out of it.
Talker
Hall of Fame
Nadal can't play the same game and win.
Djokovic was playing on fumes at the AO final and didn't really get going till the second set.
Could've taken it in 4 with all of that against him.
The surface doesn't matter anymore, past wins for Nadal on that RG surface came from players not near as consistent as Djokovic.
If Nadal can get a victory over Djokovic before RG it will help his confidence a great amount though.
Djokovic was playing on fumes at the AO final and didn't really get going till the second set.
Could've taken it in 4 with all of that against him.
The surface doesn't matter anymore, past wins for Nadal on that RG surface came from players not near as consistent as Djokovic.
If Nadal can get a victory over Djokovic before RG it will help his confidence a great amount though.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
Clarky, ever the voice of reason. :twisted:
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
:lol: So true lol.
batz
G.O.A.T.
I'm a Murray fan so I'm biased, but I also think Murray could do well @ RG. He made 2 masters semis last year, taking sets off Rafa and Noel in the process. He then made semis @ RG and made 18 BP chances against Nadal in 3 sets. All of this was before Lendl.
Murray is a genuine dark horse for RG. There - I've said it.
namelessone
Legend
He can't be. Too pale.
DRII
G.O.A.T.
Yea, they've gotten used to the ball coming off those RPM Blast strings! Nadal needs to switch strings!!! :twisted:
Go back to his 08 strings, or something...
sbengte
G.O.A.T.
I think Murray will be a bigger factor than Federer at this RG. Novak is better off drawing Federer at RG who won't be getting any better with each passing year. Don't think Federer can pull off another win over Novak for the second successive year, should they meet. It will be a physically less taxing semi than drawing Murray who is likely to make the opponent half dead for the final even if he loses.
I am very eager to see Murray 1.5 take on Nadal on clay (or any surface for that matter) in a slam.
batz
G.O.A.T.
True dat. Being Scottish, his natural skin hue is pale blue. Once he has been in the sun for a few weeks he gets a tan and turns a pasty white colour.
DRII
G.O.A.T.
Your overall attitude is a little too dismissive of Nadal. When you have two players of such high caliber, it is too generic to say that one is just clearly better than the other! Match ups, that explain the current dynamic, comes into play when one or the other has a sustained run of wins (or losses). Same goes with Nadal vs Federer; both players are too good to say that one is simply better even though the H2H would favor Nadal as being the better player.
Match ups also work the other way around; when you have a clearly less accomplished player who tends to beat a clearly more accomplished player -- such as Davydenko/Nadal or Santoro/Safin or at one point Simon/Federer or Canas/Federer...
So essentially, the whole 'match-up' argument is way of showing proper respect to a certain player. Nadal's record of accoimplishments certainly affords him of such!
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Sentinel
Bionic Poster
This year he'll do the real ultimate troll job of all times by taking out Nadal in the semi. You. Read. It. Here. First.
sbengte
G.O.A.T.
Mustard
Bionic Poster
We have no way of knowing this. Nadal beat the 7 guys in front of him, which included the world numbers 5, 4 and 3 in consecutive matches. Djokovic lost in the semi finals, and Nadal has only lost one best-of-5 sets match on clay in his life.
sbengte
G.O.A.T.
That's like saying Nadal wouldn't be at 11 slams today had Fed converted one of his MPs against Novak at USO last year.
M
monfed
Guest
Maybe not in the la-la land you live in!
Mustard
Bionic Poster
We have no way of knowing, though. A major winner has to get through the 7 guys he comes up against in the tournament. Nadal did that at the 2011 French Open, Djokovic failed.
Nadal has lost one best-of-5 sets match on clay in his life, and you just assume he'd have lost?
Nadal on clay now is similar to how Fed was with grass. He was once invincible on it, however a combination of aging+more neutral surface+better opponents means he has just about as much an advantage on clay now as Fed does on grass. Either Murray or Djokovic will prove that this year. Or even a big hitter such as Delpo may prove that point, but somebody will this year.
M
monfed
Guest
Dude are you really that blind or just plain delusional? Did you not see the matches b/w Ralph and Nole in the clay masters where Ralph couldn't even take ONE set of Nole in two consecutive clay masters(not even in Rome where Nole was 3/4 dead after his semi with Murray). I don't recall Nadal getting humiliated like that on CLAY,he was completely OWNED. Ofcourse it's hypothetical, but only an eternal optimist would've bet money on Nadal had they faced off. Jesus
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Oh I totally agree with you that winning 4 slams in a row would be epic for Djokovic and give him a level of dominance Fed never had, but Djokovic would have to still go on from there and win another slam after the FO this year and at least 3 slams next year to continue to be as dominant as Federer, not to mention he would have to surpass Fed's 16 slam total. But yes, it would be incredible if Djokovic gets 4 slams in a row and certainly give him an historic feat.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Mustard, don't feed the trolls, at the end of the day they can "hate and speculate" but all that matters is this:
What Nadal does against Federer works perfectly fine against almost every other player on the tour except the very handful (like 3 players) that can handle his topspin to the backhand. Your argument isn't very sound.
Djokovic is a bad match-up for Nadal because he can press Nadal in ways other players cannot. Just like how Nadal can press Federer in ways other players cannot. It's that simple.
Castiel
Rookie
we will have to wait untill the clay season.
i'm pretty sure they will met at madrid or rome, and the match there will give us more info P:
so far my bet is rafa. it seems like he gets closer every time.
AO is djokovic's favorite surface - Nadal took him to 5 and actually led 4-2 in the final set.
FO is nadal's favorite surface so my bet is that nadal will be able to take the little extra step and finally end up victorious.
i'm pretty sure they will met at madrid or rome, and the match there will give us more info P:
so far my bet is rafa. it seems like he gets closer every time.
AO is djokovic's favorite surface - Nadal took him to 5 and actually led 4-2 in the final set.
FO is nadal's favorite surface so my bet is that nadal will be able to take the little extra step and finally end up victorious.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Mustard, don't feed the trolls, at the end of the day they can "hate and speculate" but all that matters is this:
He better be able to do that again this year and not lose to Djokovic at the FO or it will be bad, real bad. Right now I still place Nadal as the favorite to win the FO but we will see what happens in their next matches if they should meet at IW, Miami, Madrid and Rome.
ChanceEncounter
Professional
So essentially, you're saying that Djokovic once had a matchup problem with Nadal (hence he was 4 and 14 against him), and now all of a sudden, he is the matchup problem for Nadal. I've yet to see anyone who claims Djokovic is a matchup problem for Nadal rationalize this point. How does someone as talented as Djokovic who holds a matchup advantage against you fall to 4-14 against you? I've seen Mustard attempt by saying that Nadal always had the physical edge against Djokovic, but he failed to rationalize why he wouldn't consider physical fitness an endogenous factor.
I don't think it's dismissive to say that Djokovic has been the better player than Nadal. The recent results certainly bear this out. If you want to argue that somehow, Nadal and Djokovic are equal players at the moment, then be my guest. It's not really an argument that bears much merit at the present.
Matchup advantages come into play when one player has the clear strategic advantage against the other. When one player has a clear tactical edge and an obvious point of attack, then that player has a matchup advantage.
Not true. His topspin to the backhand beats most players because his forehand is better than their backhand. He has more pace and speed than they do. But the majority of players do not struggle to handle it in the same way that Federer does. In fact, very few players do. Federer has a very clear mechanical disadvantage. This goes well beyond having good technique. You could have a great one-handed technique, like Gasquet or Wawrinka, and still get eaten alive by Nadal's forehand.
Guess what, any time you trade forehand to backhand, chances are, you're going to win that point. The vast majority of players on tour (and players in general) have stronger forehands than backhands.
By your same logic, Djokovic attacks Nadal the same way he attack everyone else. He pushes him back, he moves him around, and he beats him pace and depth on his groundstrokes. So Nadal isn't at a matchup disadvantage anymore than the whole tour is at a matchup disadvantage.
The logic that "Djokovic can attack Nadal in ways that others cannot, ergo he is a matchup [dis]advantage" is a nonsensical and illogical one. And I'll show you why: suppose you genetically engineer the perfect tennis player. He's as fast a cheetah, agile as a gazelle, never makes unforced errors, fetches everything, and hits the ball like it's shot out of a cannon. This player would obviously beat everyone on tour senseless. Now, supposed this player beats Nadal. Would it be because this hypothetically perfect player is a 'matchup advantage' against Nadal? No. This hypothetically perfect player is better than Nadal. Of course he can attack Nadal in ways that others cannot. Any player that is superior to the average player can attack Nadal in ways that the average player cannot. A big server can attack Nadal in ways that the average server cannot. A big forehand can attack Nadal in ways an average forehand cannot. A good returner can attack Nadal in ways an average returner cannot.
By the logic that Djokovic can attack Nadal in ways others cannot, you are resigning yourself to saying that everybody that is above your barometer for 'average' can attack Nadal in ways that others cannot, and therefore holds a matchup advantage. This logic is silly.
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What in the world kind of silly logic is this?
Djokovic can play B+ level tennis and beat Nadal. He can't do the same against either Federer or Murray. That's a big sign of a bad match-up. Nadal can play mediocre and still roll Federer, particularly on clay.
Nadal is at a distinct disadvantage against Djokovic, because his style of defensive play does not work against him like it does against 99.9% of the rest of the tour (including Federer and Murray). The fact that Djokovic forces him to completely abandon his normal gameplan and forces him into a style of play he does not like to play is THE #1 sign of a very bad match-up.
And Djokovic clearly picks on Nadal's backhand, all the time. His DTL backhand against Nadal's DTL backhand forces Nadal into very predictable patterns, all which favor Djokovic greatly.
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ChanceEncounter
Professional
Djokovic played a B+ level game for much of the semifinals and beat Murray.
Murray is also a defensive player. He won points by being more offensive than he has ever been. Ivan Lendl has said as much. I really don't see what you're arguing here, unless you're trying to argue that Djokovic is also a matchup problem for Murray too...
As for Federer, people have already cited that Federer is a matchup problem for Djokovic. His variety and short slice give Djokovic a world of problem. No one else attacks Djokovic in that same manner.
ChanceEncounter
Professional
According to your own logic:
You can't turn around and claim that Djokovic picks on Nadal with the DTL in response without running into the same error for "not being very sound."
Djokovic's DTL backhand dominated the whole tour last year. He does it against everyone. Djokovic's game depends upon him switching the pace back and forth and moving his opponents side to side. How many points did Djokovic win specifically by pinning Nadal into his backhand corner until he made an error?
DRII
G.O.A.T.
Clearly your lack of respect for Nadal restricts you from admitting the 'new' Nole is definitely a bad match up for Nadal in his current form! Yet, you quickly and easily do so for Federer vs Nadal, the epitome of a double standard!
The whole 'bad match up' terminology is just a way of showing due respect for players that have earned it! If you can do this with Federer, swallow your pride and do the same thing for Nadal!
ChanceEncounter
Professional
I would do so if someone can articulate exactly what it is about the "new" Nole that's such an overwhelming "matchup advantage" against Nadal. You just tell me to "give Nadal his respect" as if everyone who loses does so because of a "matchup advantage."
I could just as easily turn it around on you and claim that you aren't giving Djokovic the proper respect because you denigrate his victories by citing a "matchup advantage" he holds over Nadal. But guess what? I'm here to talk about tennis, not people's choice in whatever fantasy they want to believe in.
As I asked, why was Nadal 14-4 against Djokovic if Djokovic was such a matchup problem? Mustard at least attempted to explain this to me by claiming that he always felt Djokovic had some level of stroke superiority over Nadal, but Nadal won by being fitter and physically stronger. However, I answered that since physical fitness and strength should, in fact, be counted as endogenous factors into what makes a tennis player great, the fact that Djokovic improved these things to be on par with Nadal + his stroke superiority should imply that he's now the better player, no?
I'm not sure what the double standard you're referring to. At this point in time, Nadal is clearly the better player than Federer, matchup advantage or no matchup advantage. However, earlier in their careers, Nadal did very much beat a stronger opponent (Federer) by exploiting this matchup advantage. That is, the results against Federer made Nadal look slightly better than he was.
This works both ways, because I can just as easily say the results against players like Del Potro or Soderling against made them look better than they were. Nadal exploits some matchup advantages, and he gets some matchup advantages exploited against him. I just don't see what specifically about Djokovic's game qualifies as a matchup advantage.
To whoever cited that Djokovic seems to struggle 'more' with Federer and Murray than he does with Nadal, did everyone forget that Djokovic straight-setted Federer last year at the AO? Against someone who supposedly is a matchup problem? How's that for struggling?
Djokovic won because he was the better player. Quit trying to rationalize and minimize the victory.
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