Is Federer favourite now THE favourite for the title?

[TheMaestro1990]

He's looking 2015 good. And in 2017, without a supreme Djokovic (at least not at the Australian Open), who can stop him? As a Fed fan, my ONLY true worry is Nadal at the moment. I'd say that Federer at the moment is THE favourite to win the Australian Open (Bet365 backs me up). If Nadal doesn't go to the final, it's Federer's title to lose.

Highlights of today's match in best quality on Youtube:

Enjoy, I know I did!

 

[Urkezi]

Look man, you make great videos and I am sure people love watching them. But these knee-jerk thread titles aren't really doing you any favours... I just wish you'd simply post the highlights as thread title - you might get a few less likes or views, but you'd certainly get much more respect. Of course, I must admit I can't be sure what is worth more to you.

 

[BVSlam]

He's looking surprisingly good. But I don't like to jump the gun, he is still 35, can lose his concentration has been away for a long time and hasn't won a slam since 2012. Let's first see how Zverev holds up after that upset against Murray. After that, a tough SF awaits against either Wawrinka or Tsonga who are both very much capable of beating Fed in a slam. Then, as you say, there could always be Nadal waiting. Raonic has also beaten him in a slam. Three more matches and he isn't in unbeatable form either.

At least it's great to see him looking this good already. He has shaken off the rust quickly and is really trying to play aggressive even from the baseline by staying on it and taking the ball early. Even if he were to lose the QF, or any match afterwards, this is already a very memorable run in my view.

 

[FedererDropShot]

Wawrinka/Raonic should be the favourites.

Wawrinka at the AO > Federer at the AO in recent years.

Raonic beat Federer at Wimbledon last year.

By no means is he the favourite.

 

[MasterZeb]

Nope

 

[TheMaestro1990]

Look man, you make great videos and I am sure people love watching them. But these knee-jerk thread titles aren't really doing you any favours... I just wish you'd simply post the highlights as thread title - you might get a few less likes or views, but you'd certainly get much more respect. Of course, I must admit I can't be sure what is worth more to you.

I get your point. Thing is, if I just post the highlights without any discussion, the thread would get deleted.

 

[Urkezi]

I get your point. Thing is, if I just post the highlights without any discussion, the thread would get deleted.

Apologies then, I am still pretty new around here. Keep up the good work then with the highlights, really much appreciated.

 

[InsideOut900]

Their are certainly threats out there beside Nadal. Even Federer can be a treat to himself. He has played 2 good matches against Berdych and Nishikori,but stringing another 3 won't be easy for him.

Wawrinka,Raonic,Nadal all have equally good chances as Federer given their form and ability on this court.
Dimitrov and Thiem have lesser chances,but shouldn't be ruled out.

PS:The final will obviously be between Istomin and Zverev,but the other mugs have to be given some hope

 

[Krish872007]

Federer is 57/17 outright according to the bookies, just ahead of Wawrinka at 4/1 and Raonic at 9/2. So people think he's the favourite at the moment, but I am not convinced yet

 

[TheMaestro1990]

Apologies then, I am still pretty new around here. Keep up the good work then with the highlights, really much appreciated.

No worries. I understand your point of view, because you are right about it. Just wanted to explain why I do it this way

 

[Chicharito]

He just became the betting favourite. He wasn't straight after his match. It took a couple of hours. Therefore there was a flood of money on Fed after he beat Kei.

Bookies don't make predictions, they just do sums.

 

[tennisaddict]

This is like 2014 USO all over..His chances increased manifold today . I am not fearful of Raonic or Stan but Tsonga and Rafa know how it is done.

Let us hope Stan takes care of Tsonga

If Rafa makes it to final and beats Fed that would be epic as well for the sport. But you will have to feel for Fed..

 

[Gazelle]

Raonic is the highest seed left in the tournament. His nemeses Murray and Djok are out. He's the favourite.

 

[jga111]

Federer has surprised me a lot. Sometimes coming back from a 6month layoff can make you fresh and re-invigorated. This seems to have happened with the great man. Who knows, he is playing for fun. On paper he is 3rd favourite for me (behind raonic and Stan). But if he can keep playing like he is? Let's see and just enjoy him, when he is gone it will be a sad day.

 

[Gazelle]

This is like 2014 USO all over..His chances increased manifold today . I am not fearful of Raonic or Stan but Tsonga and Rafa know how it is done.

Let us hope Stan takes care of Tsonga

If Rafa makes it to final and beats Fed that would be epic as well for the sport. But you will have to feel for Fed..

I can't make my mind up who'd Fed best meet in the semis. Not sure how fast the courts are exactly. The faster the court is, the more dangerous Tsonga becomes. The slower the court, Stan becomes more of a threat. Either way, I hope these two play till 20-18 in the fifth

 

[tennis_pro]

He'll be 50/50 vs Wawrinka (never lost to him on a HC and this year it's playing really fast = advantage Fed) and favorite in the final against anyone bar Nadal (who still has to beat Monfils, Raonic, Dimitrov in consecutive matches just to get there, dont' forget he played a 4h+ match against Zverev so he'll feel it a little bit). I like his chances but he's as likely to win as Wawrinka or Raonic IMO (and maybe Nadal).

Anyway, I'm happy with a SF result (would've been happy with QF already but Zverev is in the quarter so it would be such a waste for Fed to lose that one).

 

[FudgeMyn]

Picking Milos tbh

 

[Hitman's Gurl]

I am nervous now. Can I say Stan or Milos is favorite? Please no Fedal final.

 

[kevaninho]

Im with Raonic here too. He seems like he wouldn't bottle it if he got to the final like some guys do looking for the first slam. Its his to lose IMO, not Fed's.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Five players remaining in draw from threat level most to least imo -

Wawrinka
Nadal

Raonic

Tsonga
Dimitrov

Given his current form, I don't see him losing last three. But against Wawrinka/Nadal it's very close.

 

[D.Nalby12]

If Nadal loses before final, Federer just needs one GOATing performance to win the trophy. That is against Wawrinka in semis. I think he can manage that.

 

[90's Clay]

He would have had a good shot if he didn't need 5 sets to beat NishMuggyWuggy. Probably not going to be enough rest time to defeat who stands in his way.

Stan bends over for Fed. Nadal is still a favorite over him but Nadal's level isn't exactly great these days. Tsonga is an erratic mess. DImitrov is still.. Mehh. Raonic Can provide tough competition as Wimbledon showed.

 

[asifallasleep]

He is ABSOLUTELY not the favorite. 6 months off and 35 years old, there's no way. I'd love to see him win tho. But get this, I don't think he cares if he's the favorite or not, he just wants to win.

Stan is the highest remaining seed AND he has been rock solid in Grand Slams as of late, so the money should be on him..................... He should either straight set Fed or Fed in 5.

 

[Talker]

I would say Fed is the favorite.
Peak Wawrinka could beat him and Nadal is still there.
Fed could lay an egg at anytime too.

However, Fed is about as rested as you could be and doesn't show much rust from inactivity.

It isn't a safe bet and now that Fed has gone five sets it's uncertain what he has left.

Glad to see him back and playing well is what I'm taking away from this tournament.

 

[Sysyphus]

He just became the betting favourite. He wasn't straight after his match. It took a couple of hours. Therefore there was a flood of money on Fed after he beat Kei.

Bookies don't make predictions, they just do sums.

Several of the betting houses adjusted him to favorite even before he won the third set.

Not entirely true that the bookies don't take their estimated 'real odds' into consideration, at least from what I know. They take both the assumed real odds and people's betting patterns into consideration. If you check out some of the houses that reveal the proportion of bets on different outcomes, you can see that they don't ever really adjust the odds to achieve anything close to an equal split between the different options. E.g., Wawrinka is right now receiving about half the action of Milos and Fed. They could raise his odds and thus achieve a more even split in action, but they presumably rate his 'real odds' higher than action would indicate and don't want to risk paying out a higher number of punters at more generous odds. Just my interpretation of it though, and I'm admittedly not deep into how the betting industry functions.

 

[reaper]

I wouldn't have him favourite, but he's favourite in the betting markets.

 

[vladisimo]

This is like 2014 USO all over..His chances increased manifold today . I am not fearful of Raonic or Stan but Tsonga and Rafa know how it is done.

Let us hope Stan takes care of Tsonga

If Rafa makes it to final and beats Fed that would be epic as well for the sport. But you will have to feel for Fed..

lol if stan takes out tsonga in 3 or maximum 4 sets that means he s in great form and starting to peak...if that happens he has high chances to beat federer .The match federer wawrinka us open 2015 was so easy for federer because he was in great form while wawrinka was far far from his best the entire tourney.

 

[skip1969]

I certainly think he's the sentimental favorite, with both the Australian crowd AND the talking heads at ESPN (who'd slobber all over themselves if he did win).

But Fed of the past few years (even pre-injury layoff) was notorious for playing wonderous tennis one round and being Mr Shank-tastic the next. That still applies in 2017.

 

[shankster]

Five players remaining in draw from threat level most to least imo -

Wawrinka
Nadal

Raonic

Tsonga
Dimitrov

Given his current form, I don't see him losing last three. But against Wawrinka/Nadal it's very close.

He has never lost to Wawrinka outside clay. Surely Raonic who has won their last 2 encounters on faster courts and Tsonga who has also beaten him in HC slams are bigger threats? Rafa won't make the final.

 

[Sysyphus]

Truth is there's no standout favorite right now, but a fairly even split between four different players: Fed, Stan, Rao and Rafa, with Grigor as a solid outsider.

Very exciting. Haven't had anything close to this openness at this stage in a slam for a long time. Unpredictability begets excite.

 

[Chicharito]

Several of the betting houses adjusted him to favorite even before he won the third set.

Not entirely true that the bookies don't take their estimated 'real odds' into consideration, at least from what I know. They take both the assumed real odds and people's betting patterns into consideration. If you check out some of the houses that reveal the proportion of bets on different outcomes, you can see that they don't ever really adjust the odds to achieve anything close to an equal split between the different options. E.g., Wawrinka is right now receiving about half the action of Milos and Fed. They could raise his odds and thus achieve a more even split in action, but they presumably rate his 'real odds' higher than action would indicate and don't want to risk paying out a higher number of punters at more generous odds. Just my interpretation of it though, and I'm admittedly not deep into how the betting industry functions.

Yes you are right. I realised I wasn't been exactly correct when I typed. Was more just emphasising the point that Fed being fav is more based on money wagered rather than opinions of bookmakers. I was sort of speaking to the people who know nothing about the industry.

Truth is there's no standout favorite right now, but a fairly even split between four different players: Fed, Stan, Rao and Rafa, with Grigor as a solid outsider.

Very exciting. Haven't had anything close to this openness at this stage in a slam for a long time. Unpredictability begets excite.

Very exciting. Tsonga and Monfils starting to dream too..

The big 4 era has given us lots of heavyweight final showdowns which are blockbuster, but we have lost out on that unpredictability (a key to exciting sport is not knowing what will happen) and having 6 or 7 guys with a real shot. With a few of them chasing their 1st, which aways adds extra tension. #HighStakes.

 

[Krish872007]

lol if stan takes out tsonga in 3 or maximum 4 sets that means he s in great form and starting to peak...if that happens he has high chances to beat federer .The match federer wawrinka us open 2015 was so easy for federer because he was in great form while wawrinka was far far from his best the entire tourney.

Yep, Federer-Wawrinka could be a very good match if it happens. Stan would look to hit through Federer like he did at RG a couple of years ago, Federer as ever would be looking to strike first and take time away from Stan, preventing him from reaching top form

 

[BeatlesFan]

He will be the favorite if and only if Nadal loses before the final. Because it won't matter if Fed is in 2005 form and Nadal comes into the final with a broken leg, Nadal will win because of his mental dominance over Roger.

I suspect Nadal will lose to the lumbering behemoth, Milos.

 

[Urkezi]

He has never lost to Wawrinka outside clay. Surely Raonic who has won their last 2 encounters on faster courts and Tsonga who has also beaten him in HC slams are bigger threats? Rafa won't make the final.

Agreed. I'd rather he plays Wawrinka because Stan serves and returns much worse than Tsonga, so Rog can somewhat control at least which way the way rallies go. Tsonga is an error machine, but he can servebot almost as good as Rog and absolutely kills the FH plus can actually approach the net. Much less predictable than Stan.

But if we are realistic, there is nobody from the bottom half Rog would be favoured against. Raobot is a much tougher Tsonga, Nadal is a pain in the you know what and Dimi is simply a younger, faster and fitter Roger now. Tough ask, a SF would be just OK now considering the draw (but otherwise a superb result), anything more is stuff dreams are made of.

 

[tennisaddict]

lol if stan takes out tsonga in 3 or maximum 4 sets that means he s in great form and starting to peak...if that happens he has high chances to beat federer .The match federer wawrinka us open 2015 was so easy for federer because he was in great form while wawrinka was far far from his best the entire tourney.

This is not clay. On grass and this slightly sped up hard courts, Stan will not know what hit him .

 

[Deleted member 512391]

I can't make my mind up who'd Fed best meet in the semis. Not sure how fast the courts are exactly. The faster the court is, the more dangerous Tsonga becomes. The slower the court, Stan becomes more of a threat. Either way, I hope these two play till 20-18 in the fifth

I would say that Tsonga is a tougher opponent for Roger, regardless of the conditions. His return is much more aggressive, his serve is bigger and his all-court game can rob even Roger of time. Plus, Tsonga has beaten Federer on every surface (hard, clay, grass), including their last encounter on hard court (the 2014 Canada Masters final).

Stan has never beaten Fed outside the clay and won only two sets in their last 4 encounters on hard court. Fed exploits his chip/block return much easier, have him running all the time and Stan is never really in his comfort zone when he plays Fed, especially in faster conditions (and they are faster, according to some players, including Fed, and some commentators, probably due to the lighter balls this year).

But, yeah, 20-18 in the fifth would be good regardless.

 

[Jonas78]

If someone put a gun to my head and i had to choose one player, i would go with Stan, but probably Fed at nr2. The odds are of course affected by the top half being finished with R4, while bottom half is not.

A part of me wants him to meet Rafa at the final, because i think he has a better chance now then in their last 3 meetings at Aussie. On the other hand, Rafa has always been a terrible match up for him. If someone knocks out Rafa, i think the SF vs Stan/Tsonga could be the toughest match.

 

[-NN-]

He's looking 2015 good. And in 2017, without a supreme Djokovic (at least not at the Australian Open), who can stop him? As a Fed fan, my ONLY true worry is Nadal at the moment. I'd say that Federer at the moment is THE favourite to win the Australian Open (Bet365 backs me up). If Nadal doesn't go to the final, it's Federer's title to lose.

Highlights of today's match in best quality on Youtube:

Enjoy, I know I did!

I don't believe that. But hey, let's hope you're right, because if he is (even though some elements of his game are **** compared to 2015) then he's probably going to win the Major. It took GOATovic to stop him in 2015... twice.

 

[Jonas78]

Wawrinka/Raonic should be the favourites.

Wawrinka at the AO > Federer at the AO in recent years.

Raonic beat Federer at Wimbledon last year.

By no means is he the favourite.

Fed was up 2-1 when he got reinjured, so i dont think thats relevant.

 

[clayqueen]

Federer is 57/17 outright according to the bookies, just ahead of Wawrinka at 4/1 and Raonic at 9/2. So people think he's the favourite at the moment, but I am not convinced yet

What do the bookies know? Their two red hot favourites have fallen by the wayside.

 

[MasturB]

Raonic is the highest seed left in the tournament. His nemeses Murray and Djok are out. He's the favourite.

He also lost to Dimitrov at Brisbane.

 

[WarriorRafa]

Raonic,Fed,Wawa, Rafa imo.

 

[sarmpas]

Federer still has the talent/technical ability to win but he's 35yrs old and hasn't played competively for 6 months until recently. Even at full fitness winning 7 matches in a slam is still tiring so I must think at some point his lack of match play will catch up to him, after Kei I still don't rank him as favourite.

 

[mistik]

For me it is Fed, Wawa, Raonic, Tsonga,Thiem,

 

[Krish872007]

What do the bookies know? Their two red hot favourites have fallen by the wayside.

Of course. But remember this is a snaphsot at a particular point in time. Federer's half of the draw has already played their R4 matches, so Federer is "closer" to winning the title than the guys in the bottom half by virtue of the fact that he won today. He also has a straightforward QF and would probably be favoured over Stan/Tsonga considering that they might tire each other out.

These odds will surely change if Nadal and Raonic win tomorrow. It's not up to the bookies is it? It's the people who place the bets that drive the odds up/down accordingly.

 

[cockneyDjoker]

Federer vs Monfils final is the c**ks prediction

 

[Jonas78]

Federer vs Monfils final is the c**ks prediction

For once i hope you are right

 

[mightyrick]

What do the bookies know? Their two red hot favourites have fallen by the wayside.

+1. I end up posting the same sentiment once every couple of months.

Most people on this board still have no clue about bookmakers' odds. Bookmakers are not in the business of predicting outcomes. They are in the business of providing payout odds (for all outcomes) to their customers which will yield the bookmaker the most profit.

But such is the way of the world these days. With a little bit of Googling, most people these days think they are experts at everything. Of course, they don't understand the difference between having access to a wealth of information versus having the expertise to apply that information in the correct way.

 

[Steve0904]

What do the bookies know? Their two red hot favourites have fallen by the wayside.

Weren't you slobbering all over Murray when he was still in the draw? Telling us he was the heavy favourite to win the title, and by consequence beat Federer if Fed made the QF's. The bookies knew it all then, but now they know nothing. How convenient. What a joke.

 

[Surion]

Two obstacles:

Nadal and his fitness.

He's never won against Nadal at this tournament and we don't know how well he'll recover from this unnecessary long match against Kei.

And in a possible semifinal either Tsonga or Stan can beat him, too, although I like his chances on this fast court.

I truly believe we'll get the 2009 final all over again, this time with Roger as the champion hopefully.