Is Fed's weeks-at-number-1 record safe?

Can Federer stave off the opposition?


  • Total voters
    93
  • Poll closed .
Djoker to take over at numero uno on Monday. He's currently sitting at 223 weeks.

Federer's held the spot for just less than six years: 310 weeks.

Assuming Federer does not return to the pole position in his career, Djokovic would need to add 88 weeks (87 to tie) at the top spot to overtake him.

Is the buffer enough? :eek:

"I'm swimming with my clothes on, man. Do I look worried to you?"
 

RF-18

G.O.A.T.
It's a tough task. I wouldn't bet on it. Stuff can change in a blink of an eye. Lets see what happens.
 

itrium84

Semi-Pro
It's not safe. Altough Novak can fall down in ranking during next 88 weeks, and it wouldn't be a surprise - his chances are not like 5% or 10% low. I would say it's 50-50 right now, so definitely not safe for Fed.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
 

jimjam

Professional
I'd also say it's 50/50 for Fed to keep the record.

Will Djokovic experience a significant physical decline before he turns 34 (2.5 years from now) ?

If not, then Fed's record is toast.
 

chut

Semi-Pro
For the moment it is, because 88 weeks is actually quite a long time in tennis. Federer looked poised to beat Sampras record in 2008, then in 2010 and finally barely made it in 2012. And he was much closer from that record than Djokovic is now.
 
For the moment it is, because 88 weeks is actually quite a long time in tennis. Federer looked poised to beat Sampras record in 2008, then in 2010 and finally barely made it in 2012. And he was much closer from that record than Djokovic is now.
1 difference,
2 young nextgen ATGs were consistently chasing and halting fed in his race, whereas djoker's whole next and next-to-next gen is useless
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
Eventually one of the young players will break through, it has to happen and it's been overdue by about five years. Maybe it happens next year which throws a monkey wrench into all predictions. Djoker should be safe at #1 until Wimbledon, and then all bets are off. Expecting him at age 32 to defend two slams is a tall ask. But if he stays healthy I expect him to do a lot of damage on clay in 2019 where he can gain many points.
 

chut

Semi-Pro
1 difference,
2 young nextgen ATGs were consistently chasing and halting fed in his race, whereas djoker's whole next and next-to-next gen is useless
True, but in terms of age, Djokovic is now as old as Federer was in 2012 and he hasn't been injury proof lately. Also, young players can't suck forever, one of them has to breakthrough eventually.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
For the moment it is, because 88 weeks is actually quite a long time in tennis. Federer looked poised to beat Sampras record in 2008, then in 2010 and finally barely made it in 2012. And he was much closer from that record than Djokovic is now.
Good points, with a HUGE caveat.

Fed had contenders that threatens his #1 throne in Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Delpo (high chance to reach #1 had 2009 injury didn't happen, Fed thought so himself).

Djokovic/Nadal's #1 throne threats?... *crickets*
 

Wander

Professional
Seriously?? Some people here think Djokovic has a 50% chance to gain more than 88 more weeks at world number 1.

That presupposes that the young players will all continue to disappoint for an another 18 months. AND that Djokovic will stay relatively injury free. Both things are possible, but it's not 50/50, sheesh.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
Seriously?? Some people here think Djokovic has a 50% chance to gain more than 88 more weeks at world number 1.

That presupposes that the young players will all continue to disappoint for an another 18 months. AND that Djokovic will stay relatively injury free. Both things are possible, but it's not 50/50, sheesh.
This shouldn't surprise you. There are many people here thinking Djokovic will win 21+ slams and think it's a foregone conclusion. Actually Novak has a million times better chance getting to 300+ weeks as #1 than winning 7 more slams at his age.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
True, but in terms of age, Djokovic is now as old as Federer was in 2012 and he hasn't been injury proof lately. Also, young players can't suck forever, one of them has to breakthrough eventually.
Also true, but you're missing the overarching picture. Bc if (BIG IF) current NextGen players take over in ~2yrs time, it'll all be moot re: #1 record (they'd be late by about 10yrs, adding to LostGen's failure to challenge).

Since Nadal took over #1 in 2008, his gen had NO NextGen threats to the #1 throne. #1 proceeded to be passed between Fedalovicray, none of which are NextGens of Nadalovicray. They had help (read: lack of young contenders), but Fed didn't. If he did, Fed would be sitting at something like 500 weeks without Nadalovicray (as Fed was #2 for much of the time since 2008).
 
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Pheasant

Hall of Fame
2019 is going to be a huge deciding year for Djokovic. He's virtually a lock for #1 until Wimbledon. He doesn't have many points to defend until that point. That gets Djoker to within 60 weeks of Fed. If Djoker can stay #1 for the entire 2019 season, then he'll break Fed's incredible record. This record is huge and I think that Fed knows it. Perhaps Fed is playing Paris mainly because he is starting to see Djoker in the rear view mirror for this record.

Djoker is 31 1/2 years old. Unless Nadal gets his form back, I think Djoker will break it. I give Djokovic a 70% chance of breaking that record now. His level is so far above everybody else's right now.

This case for Djokovic is far different than Fed's. Fed had two ATG's in their prime that slowed him down immensely. Djokovic is unlikely to have either. Fed will be nearly 38 next Summer when Djoker starts defending his grass court and hard court points. Nadal is a huge question mark for injuries. Djokovic's path looks clear. And I'll be the first one to congratulate Djoker when he breaks it.

Hopefully, Fed can hang onto some of his records. The WTF and AO tournaments are going to be incredibly important here. I am hoping for Federer to come up with a couple of more epic moments.

Some of Fed's records(owned either solely or shared) that I really like of his are:

20 slam titles- in jeopardy by Djoker and Nadal
310 weeks at #1- in serious jeopardy by Djoker
6 WTF titles- in serious jeopardy by Djoker
237 consecutive weeks at #1- safe for a long time
3 consecutive years wire-to-wire #1- safe for a long time
6 AO titles- quite likely to be broken by Djoker
5 USO titles- highly unlikely to be broken for a while
8 Wimbledon titles-- safe for a long time
5+ slam titles at 3 different events- safe for a long time
24 consecutive finals victories- safe for a long time
26 consecutive wins vs top 10 players --safe for a long time
23 consecutive slam semis- safe for a very long time
10 consecutive slam finals- safe for a very long time
40 consecutive wins at two different slam events - safe for a very long time
339 slam match wins overall- remote chance of being broken by Djoker
11 slam titles in a 4 year span- safe for a very long time
5 consecutive slam titles at two different events- safe for a very long time
11 hard court slam titles- in jeopardy by Djoker
4 slam titles after the age of 30- in serious jeopardy Djoker and Nadal
6 years with slam match winning percentage of 90%+-- safe for a very long time
11 consecutive slam match victories without losing a set- safe for a very long time
65 consecutive wins on grass- safe for a very long time
56 consecutive wins on hard courts -- safe for a very long time


I think that a number of Fed's important records will be broken. However, he will still hold a lot of big records.

The records that I want Fed to hang onto the most are the slam titles record, the WTF record, the number of weeks at #1, the Wimbledon titles record, the USO titles record(shared), and the AO titles record. I see Djoker stealing the weeks at #1, the AO record, and the WTF record. I see a decent shot for Nadal or Djoker to steal the slam titles record.

Fed really needs some epic performances at this year's WTF and the 2019 AO. I won't be terribly disappointed if he doesn't pull it off. But I would be ecstatic if he could somehow take one of those titles. That would be incredible.
 

GabeT

Legend
Seriously?? Some people here think Djokovic has a 50% chance to gain more than 88 more weeks at world number 1.

That presupposes that the young players will all continue to disappoint for an another 18 months. AND that Djokovic will stay relatively injury free. Both things are possible, but it's not 50/50, sheesh.
At least 50% I think. Probably more. Even if some new players start winning so far none has shown any consistency. Nole doesn’t need to dominate everything to remain number 1. He just needs to win more points than the competition.

We’ll find out soon enough
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
I give Djokovic a 70% chance of breaking that record now. His level is so far above everybody else's right now.
Think back to June, 2016 when Novak's level was far above anyone else's. We all know what happened in the ensuing months and years to his career. He's already proven his level can go from sublime to terrible in the span of a few months, but few seem to keep that in mind in making their predictions for his future. He's lost motivation (to a huge degree) once before in his career, so that can happen again.
 

SuperSpinner

Semi-Pro
It's not whether Novak can maintain or not. It's whether there is someone younger that can challenge him. There is absolutely no one. Tainted weeks.
 

nachiket nolefam

Hall of Fame
Anyone talking about next gen, buzz off.

There is no next gen.

Novak can do it if he is injury free and doesn't slump. No next gen is going to prevent it.
 
D

Deleted member 716271

Guest
Djokovic will cross this one, the YE No 1 and also WTF. But he will still end up 3rd in slam count.
Agreed although 2nd is possible in slam count. I'm more sanguine thinking he could break the slam record than you. Definitely think he has a chance. But odds arent in his favor. For the weeks at 1 ye 1s and WTFs I would say they are tipped in his favor.
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
Fed's safest record at the moment is 8 WB titles.
20 GS is within the clay king's reach.
310 weeks is within Novak's reach. Yes, Novak dropped the ball for a couple of years. But what didn't kill him will make him stronger.

2014 Paris W -------------- 2018 WB W
2014 WTF W -------------
2018 Canada R3
2015 AO W
--------------- 2018 Cincy W
2015 IW W ---------------- 2018 USO W
2015 Miami W ------------ 2018 Shanghai W
2015 MC W
2015 Madrid A
2015 Rome W
2015 RG F
2015 WB W

2015 Canada F
2015 Cincy F

2015 USO W
2015 Shanghai W
2015 Paris W
2015 WTF W
2016 AO W

2016 IW W
2016 Miami W
2016 MC R2
2016 Madrid W
2016 Rome F
2016 RG W
 

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
Agreed although 2nd is possible in slam count. I'm more sanguine thinking he could break the slam record than you. Definitely think he has a chance. But odds arent in his favor. For the weeks at 1 ye 1s and WTFs I would say they are tipped in his favor.
I think it was 3 or so years ago where I was suggesting 13-14 would be reasonable to expect for Djokovic and his better shot would be at #1 accolades... maybe even not that long ago.

Well your prediction of 18 is looking better and better by the second.

It's just so difficult to account for the dearth of talent in the younger generations, and of course it's unfair to expect what could be a very promising and young generation to be mature and ready enough to challenge these legends. Zverev is on a good path but has faltered badly in the Slams.

Good example of not relying on the past to predict the future.

And now that I've said that, Djokovic will hit a wall and stop at 14 (hopefully not).

Prediction history for Djokovic: maybe 5... ok about 8... maybe 10-11... about 12... ok 13-14.

He's on 14.

I've always underestimated Djokovic in the moment, though not because I don't rate him but based on likelihoods which history has taught and on always expecting a rise of a younger generation in the moment much sooner than it ever came to pass. In early phases it was hard to look beyond how Fedal wouldn't be too much of an obstacle for Djokovic to not have something more resembling Murray like fortunes, and then later on it was hard to envisage such a clear and long path for all three of the Trifecta to continue winning again and again.

Fair to say he can become GOAT.
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
I think we know who the stalker is here. ;)

And get a clue. That part of the site is geared toward improvement, or at least working toward it.

You don't work toward much at all, it seems.

Go get yourself an education. And when you do so, consider growing a pair.

You wouldn't make these snaps to my face (or to anyone else's). You're safe to do whatever you please behind your little screen there.

Buzz off, and quit wasting my time, coward.
He has been an actual tennis player in his region.
And he never said he is going to serve like a top player or anything like that.
This is real life and not some sort of fantasy.
Me too find it a bit difficult to take you serious when you can post a video like that on a tennis forum, and you are not even a child.
I was shocked when I saw it. It put things in a perspective I was not ready for.
You have been so nasty towards so many, you have become much better lately. But I inderstand much more now after I saw that video a while ago.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Yup, but it's going to be a bit too close for comfort.
This may be semantics, but: Is it safe? No.
Will Novak break it? I also see it as a 50/50 proposition.
In other words, barring bad tourneys at Paris and London, he'll stay at #1 through the end of the year, and more than likely through the first half of next year - even if he doesn't do too much...although a healthy Rafa could make it interesting then. The question, then, is: "Can another player outplay him over the next 18 months, give or take? Would you bet on Novak or the field?
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
If Nole ever reaches 310 weeks, he'll have a lot of help from the weak era. The NEXT GEN will have to continue to suck for another 3 years for him to get there.
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Depends on how long Nole can keep this level up for.

If he can for 2-3 years he should clean up. Weakest era of all time.
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
I think that's fair, so I think Djokovic needs to focus and make sure he can sustain his level at least for 1.5-2 years to have any chance to surpass Fed.
He got to stay injury free. Chose the tournaments wisely. He is in position to do that as well because of his age. He doesnt need a lot more masters. He needs weeks and slams. And with this field w no one in sight he can do it. He got to keep his inspiration up, without having Fedal as rivals. That could be a bit tricky, to stay on top long time alone. Hopefully past events Fed created himself can be enough motivation for Novak to chase Feds records. Maybe Feds behaviour in the past will backfire. Novaks dad not over it, maybe deep down Novak isnt either.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
At this point I think Djokovic is a >50% favorite to break it, so it is not safe by any stretch of the imagination.

The fact that younger players still either are bad on half the surfaces or can't make the 2nd weeks of Slams is a tremendous barrier for them. I don't see them overcoming that in the next year, and I think Djoko needs to keep #1 until the spring of 2020, so tournaments that count toward that will actually happen quite soon.

Really right now all Djokovic needs to do is play a full schedule to be #1

And I've said this before and I'll say it again. Time at #1 and YE#1 are garbage metrics for any sort of goat ranking cause they're not an achievement in itself, but a comparison of achievements compared to other players over 52 weeks. During the Big 4 years players have had better years at #4 than some of Sampras #1 years, and that's why it's a crap stat.

And I'll keep saying this whoever has the weeks at #1 or the YE#1 record. It's the sum of achievements that counts, and #1 isn't a part of that.
 

GabeT

Legend
At this point I think Djokovic is a >50% favorite to break it, so it is not safe by any stretch of the imagination.

The fact that younger players still either are bad on half the surfaces or can't make the 2nd weeks of Slams is a tremendous barrier for them. I don't see them overcoming that in the next year, and I think Djoko needs to keep #1 until the spring of 2020, so tournaments that count toward that will actually happen quite soon.

Really right now all Djokovic needs to do is play a full schedule to be #1

And I've said this before and I'll say it again. Time at #1 and YE#1 are garbage metrics for any sort of goat ranking cause they're not an achievement in itself, but a comparison of achievements compared to other players over 52 weeks. During the Big 4 years players have had better years at #4 than some of Sampras #1 years, and that's why it's a crap stat.

And I'll keep saying this whoever has the weeks at #1 or the YE#1 record. It's the sum of achievements that counts, and #1 isn't a part of that.
But aren’t all achievements a comparison against others? Sure, you can be #1 playing much worse than someone who was only # 3 in a different year. But the same applies to slams. A player could win many slams at time X but possibly much less had he played at time Y. It’s the nature of sports. We can only measure results, not how they got there.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
But aren’t all achievements a comparison against others? Sure, you can be #1 playing much worse than someone who was only # 3 in a different year. But the same applies to slams. A player could win many slams at time X but possibly much less had he played at time Y. It’s the nature of sports. We can only measure results, not how they got there.
A tournament stands on it's own.

Rankings are just a sum of standalone tournaments by some arbitrary division of points. The tournaments speak for themselves.

Winning a Grand Slam is the same every time, you gotta win 7 consecutive Bo5 matches.

Ranking heavily depends on what happens in matches you're not even playing yourself. That's why it shouldn't matter. Winning a tournament is completely within your own influence.

Being #1 can be anything from a zero Slam champion to holding all 4 Slams at once. One is not the other, so we shouldn't pretend that they are.
 

Tennisgods

Hall of Fame
Not safe at all. Never was. My money’s on Djokovic, comfortably. Of course, there are the usual buts and maybes but if he stays fit, healthy, motivated, he’ll get that record. Probably the others too.

But here comes the caveat... he’ll achieve it in an unbelievably weak era. It’s too easy right now, there just aren’t any other viable candidates that could spend significant time at number 1.
 

GabeT

Legend
A tournament stands on it's own.

Rankings are just a sum of standalone tournaments by some arbitrary division of points. The tournaments speak for themselves.

Winning a Grand Slam is the same every time, you gotta win 7 consecutive Bo5 matches.

Ranking heavily depends on what happens in matches you're not even playing yourself. That's why it shouldn't matter. Winning a tournament is completely within your own influence.

Being #1 can be anything from a zero Slam champion to holding all 4 Slams at once. One is not the other, so we shouldn't pretend that they are.
Winning a slam requires winning 7 Bo5 matches.

Being number 1 requires having the most points over a 52 week period.

Both are very clear definitions.

In both cases your success will depend not just on how well you play but on who you face. So it’s perfectly feasible for someone to win a slam or reach #1 and imagine they would have done neither if they had faced different players.

Reaching number 1 is probably the single most sought after goal by any professional tennis player, something many of them have said over the years.
 
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