Is Jack Sock the new David Ferrer/Nishikori - or can he go further?

Guitario

Rookie
I've noticed recently that Sock is slowly but steadily rising through the rankings.. little by little.. almost sneaking up on the top 10 without many people noticing - similar to what Ferrer did at a similar age.

Looking at it a little more, I see a few players have done this, and the stats are often comparable. Nishikori is another rankings grinder - steadily progressing (albeit a bit younger). Goffin too is on a similar path to Sock.

Nishikori was 22 when breaking the top 20, and 24 when breaking the top 10.
Ferrer was 23 when breaking the top 20, and 25 when breaking the top 10.
Goffin was 24 when breaking the top 20, and 26 when reaching number 10. (not quite broken in yet)

Sock was 24 when breaking the top 10, and just a few months later, he's edging to 14 in the live rankings. So it seems like he's on a similar trajectory to Ferrer.

*By the way, I'm not counting those like Gasquet who hit heights at an early age, before dropping off and then moving back up again. Just those who improved slowly year after year and stayed there.

Both Ferrer and Nishikori did this without having any big weapons, just consistency.

So has Sock got enough about him to emulate those two and become a mainstay inside the top 10, maybe even going further and winning some important titles (Kei, I'm looking at you)? He has greater power and the physical attributes the others lacked.

Tagging on another question while I'm here.. could Sock actually have a better career than Dimitrov?
 
Interesting numbers, thanks for posting those.

Would be very interesting to dive deeper and look at how much of that came from clutch play for all three...
the share of close matches versus routines. Because Sock has been dancing on the edge of the cliff many times this year. Good results are luck or clutch?

Of the three, Sock obviously has the most power and in that sense highest ceiling, but as an overall player I don't think he can be compared to Ferrer or Nishikori yet at all. He needs some top player scalps at the very least. I have a hunch he might get one at French Open.
 

Guitario

Rookie
Ferrer was getting slam qf and sf left and right tbh.

To be fair, he wasn't really consistently reaching sf and f until he reached his peak, which was around 29-31. In a non big-4 era, who knows if he could have won a slam. To me, he was very much a 7.5 out of 10 player per match - always knew what you going to get from him. Fought for every point!

Interesting numbers, thanks for posting those.

Would be very interesting to dive deeper and look at how much of that came from clutch play for all three...
the share of close matches versus routines. Because Sock has been dancing on the edge of the cliff many times this year. Good results are luck or clutch?

Of the three, Sock obviously has the most power and in that sense highest ceiling, but as an overall player I don't think he can be compared to Ferrer or Nishikori yet at all. He needs some top player scalps at the very least. I have a hunch he might get one at French Open.

The ability to win when not playing well, or the knack of getting over the line in close/pressure situations is the sign of a strong mindset - which is essential if he's to mix it with the best at the high end of slams or in 500/1000 finals in the future.

You're right though.. those guys seem to have the better all round game, but then again, they are older.
 

SinjinCooper

Hall of Fame
Those guys have nothing in common with Sock, so I'm not seeing how it would be instructive to compare them.

Probably someone like James Blake could be a better comp, as a later blooming, limited power player.

Nishikori and Ferrer lack the weapons to take down the giants. Blake and Sock had/have entirely different hurdles to face.
 

Guitario

Rookie
Those guys have nothing in common with Sock, so I'm not seeing how it would be instructive to compare them.

Probably someone like James Blake could be a better comp, as a later blooming, limited power player.

Nishikori and Ferrer lack the weapons to take down the giants. Blake and Sock had/have entirely different hurdles to face.

I'm not comparing styles - I'm comparing progression and ranking relative to their ages. As I stated in my OP, it's the consistency of all those mentioned that I'm highlighting. In that sense, Sock is following a similar progression to Ferrer and Nishikori.

Blake had a similar progression to Sock until he was about 23/24 then I don't know if he was injured or what, but he dropped well out of it for a while, and then aged around 26 he went from outside the top 20 to inside the top 5 in 3 months or so - which is where the comparison falls apart. Too yo yo/sporadic overall, but a good comparison up until 24 - which is where Sock is at now.
 

Bender

G.O.A.T.
Sock's got bigger weapons but he won't amount to anything until he improves his movement, and I don't mean his movement backwards, which he does fairly well enough already.
 
N

Nashvegas

Guest
Sock had some of his Kyrgios-lite moments last night against Lopez. There were words and looks exchanged during the match and Lopez berated him after the handshake. Sock ignored him there because he'd won and was happy.

Sock did phone in most of the second set once he fell behind but charged back in the third. He doesn't quit but he does go AWOL at times. I like the emotion because the game needs that, but he loses his focus at times.
 

Dan W

New User
Sock had some of his Kyrgios-lite moments last night against Lopez. There were words and looks exchanged during the match and Lopez berated him after the handshake. Sock ignored him there because he'd won and was happy.

Sock did phone in most of the second set once he fell behind but charged back in the third. He doesn't quit but he does go AWOL at times. I like the emotion because the game needs that, but he loses his focus at times.
Anyone know what was said by Lopez in the post match "chat"? Was he still upset about Sock thinking he didn't apologize on the net-cord shot?
 

Bukmeikara

Legend
Sock's more like the next Querrey/Isner

I think he'll be lucky to have a career anywhere near as good at Ferrer or Nishikori

I agree and personaly cant understand how do people make such comparisons. Sock has just two 4th Rounds compared to 27+ from Ferrer. He has six top 10 wins compared to 31 from Nishikori. People fail to understand that between a top 20 player and top 10 there is a gap and between top 10 and for top 5-3 you should add another gear
 
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I don't think OP is questioning the existence of the gap, but whether Sock could bridge it on a similar timetable.
For example, the stat you cited, he needs 25 top 10 wins in the next 3 years (well, 2 years and nine months) to match Nishikori. That would be a pace of 8 top-10 wins per year more or less. Back of the envelope, that means he'd probably need to reach, say, 1 Slam+Masters Final (~= 2 top 10 wins), 3 SFs (~= 1 top 10), and 4 QFs (~= 0.5) plus a miscellaneous 500 win. Am I right? If so, is that doable? Depends on a lot of things like the rate at which the Big 4 declien from here and the rate at which the young guns like Kyrgios develop into a new top-5, plus of course whether Sock permanently gets his attitude right.
 
V

VexlanderPrime

Guest
Sock's FH is really something. Consistency and Mental Toughness.... those are his problems. Ferrer was Mr. Consistent. And a fighter. Sock could become that but he needs to mature. If I had to bet I'd say no. He seems like he's content with having fun. Within that constraint he's doing well.
 

Bobby Jr

G.O.A.T.
No. Ferrer was a truly insane athlete - enough that he could mostly make up for his limitations except against the very best.

Sock is not. He has some weapons but is half the athlete Ferrer was. Unless he enters some period of ruthless training regime he'll always have a ceiling to his game except for once or twice a year where he redlines enough that his athleticism doesn't matter all that much.
 

Bukmeikara

Legend
I don't think OP is questioning the existence of the gap, but whether Sock could bridge it on a similar timetable.

I think its a good idea to see the career trajectory of the mentioned players:

1. Nishikori was a tennis a prodigy and won an ATP title at age of 18 starting from the qualies. Later that year he pushed Nadal to a final set and defeated Ferrer (number 4 or 5) in a Grand Slam. That are pretty decent signs that he would be a top player. After that he lost the whole 09 because of injury and 2010 + half of 2011 because of lack of ranking. After 2011 he retired from another 13 tournaments and still had an incredible success despite those. So bottom line, the gap with Kei is probably a lot bigger because the injury problems that Nishikori had.
2. Ferrer - by 2005(his 3rd full ATP year) David was top 15. By the end of his 5th year(the current one for Jack) he was number 4, with Slam SF+QF, with 15+ Master QF (Sock has only two of those) and he had multiple wins over Roddick, Djokovic and Nadal.
3. Wawrinka- people use him as an example for a late career success but still even before 2013 he had multiple matches where he pushed the best to the limit, reached top 10 at 23 and had the GOAT for a mentor

I think that the best, outside some miracle run like Gaudio, Sock could hope is a Goffin type of career. The later one is hugely consistant in the past three years with plenty of deep runs but somehow when you draw the line - his highest ranking is 10th and 4 or 5 top 10 wins. Jack is not a headcase like Tomic in order to expect for him to make some sudden jump with age. He didn't had a lot of close calls like Stan had before his success and didn't lose much time because of injuries. He was there, he was improving and still is but not in a way to suggest that he would reach top 4 as Ferrer and Nishikori did.

And Nishikori's 31 top 10 wins are not a small feat, guys like Roddick and Hewitt whom spend years in top 10 have around 40
 
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Guitario

Rookie
I think its a good idea to see the career trajectory of the mentioned players:

1. Nishikori was a tennis a prodigy and won an ATP title at age of 18 starting from the qualies. Later that year he pushed Nadal to a final set and defeated Ferrer (number 4 or 5) in a Grand Slam. That are pretty decent signs that he would be a top player. After that he lost the whole 09 because of injury and 2010 + half of 2011 because of lack of ranking. After 2011 he retired from another 13 tournaments and still had an incredible success despite those. So bottom line, the gap with Kei is probably a lot bigger because the injury problems that Nishikori had.
2. Ferrer - by 2005(his 3rd full ATP year) David was top 15. By the end of his 5th year(the current one for Jack) he was number 4, with Slam SF+QF, with 15+ Master QF (Sock has only two of those) and he had multiple wins over Roddick, Djokovic and Nadal.
3. Wawrinka- people use him as an example for a late career success but still even before 2013 he had multiple matches where he pushed the best to the limit, reached top 10 at 23 and had the GOAT for a mentor

I think that the best, outside some miracle run like Gaudio, Sock could hope is a Goffin type of career. The later one is hugely consistant in the past three years with plenty of deep runs but somehow when you draw the line - his highest ranking is 10th and 4 or 5 top 10 wins. Jack is not a headcase like Tomic in order to expect for him to make some sudden jump with age. He didn't had a lot of close calls like Stan had before his success and didn't lose much time because of injuries. He was there, he was improving and still is but not in a way to suggest that he would reach top 4 as Ferrer and Nishikori did.

And Nishikori's 31 top 10 wins are not a small feat, guys like Roddick and Hewitt whom spended years in top 10 have around 40

Good info and reasoning. The reason why I picked Nishikori and Ferrer, is that they both had a steady forward progression towards the top 10.. no anomalies, or sudden rushes of form that distort things. I accept Nishikori was a better youngster than Sock and was unfortunate with injuries, but he still had 2 years where Sock currently sits in the rankings before a surge inside the top 10.. so if we compare 'post injuries' Nishikori to Sock, then it makes more sense.

I just find it interesting how few top players aside from the very elite, have that consistent progression thing going on. Most players yo yo around all over the place - even if the overall trajectory is in one direction.

My opinion, is that this consistency might be a good way to predict Sock's career. His ceiling may well be that of someone hovering around the top 10, but a consistent one.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
We will never see Paire or Sock at the top of a draw.
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accidental

Hall of Fame
Players tend to peak in early to mid 20's. It's usually quite rare for a player to consistently progress upwards and then peak in their late 20's, which is why it was so amazing that Wawrinka managed to do it

How far a player has progressed after 5 years on tour is generally a good indication of their ceiling (except for cases of major injury)
 

toby55555

Hall of Fame
I don't think he's mentally weak, I've watched a lot of his matches and he's good at coming back from behind and he doesn't freeze on big points, always keeps going for his shots.
I just think his backhand will never be a weapon and he has to fight for too many service games which I put down to him putting too much spin on the first serve. Id like to see him flatten out the first serve and move up the ace rankings (currently 18th for 2017 and 20th for first serve won).
Moves quite well and has excellent touch around the net; my guess is he will briefly touch around 7-9 in the world but that's it and no 1000 titles.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Sock is never going to be top 10, so he will never be ranked as high as either Kei or Ferrer. He's simply not an elite player and his movement is really horrible. His FH is also overrated. I saw his FH live at Indian Wells and sure, it has pace, but it's just NOT remotely a great FH. I actually think Djoker's FH is better than Sock's and Nole's FH isn't much touted.
 

Bukmeikara

Legend
never going to be top 10.

Man, never speak in absolutes! This is a simple life lesson you should learn. About Sock, he is 6th in the race with some momentum behind his back. Clay is his best surface and after that tons of tournaments are in North America where he can collect plenty of points. He needs around 2k more points to secure top 10 finish and as for now .. there is probably 35-40% chance for that to happen. In other words 35-40% for you to look like a fool ...
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
Sock's ceiling is limited. He won't ever be a major contender.
I think this guy is incredibly over-hyped. He's been very lucky this year. His game doesn't support his ranking, and I expect him to peak about now and then go back down. Lousy return game. If there is any hope for American tennis, it's not from guys his age and older.
 
J

JRAJ1988

Guest
Jack Sock will be in the top ten in some point during his career, he's more like a James Blake player though James had a decent Backhand.
 

ojo rojo

Legend
Sock seems like an affable, down-to-earth and uber easy-going guy; not necessarily the qualities one would associate with the few players that have consistently dominated the top of the rankings for the last decade or so. Be it pure talent or pure tenacity, the bar has been raised so high, it probably seems out of reach for the likes of Sock and his peers.

I hear the faint sound of a distant scream. What's that I hear?.. Something about Weak.. . something... Era?. I'll leave that to our TTW in-house statictitian's

On a side note: perhaps if Sock wants to be in the same conversation as Ferrer, its not simply a case of laying off the burgers. He needs to try Ferrer's unusual "Benson & Hedges" diet plan

 

droliver

Professional
Sock has big weapons (FH, serve, power), but big holes to hide (BH! Movement). While I wouldn't be surprised for him to win any particular match over anyone, I'm still skeptical he's going to have the consistency to move into the top 10. I think Sam Querry, who's been up and down th rankings his career, is a better comp for many reasons then Ferrer or Nishikoi.
 
Unpopular opinion: his BH return may be better thabn his FH return.
Obviously I am in a small miniority who likes the Sock BH, but especially on RoS, where his FH is at its most aggravatingly unreliable, I actually think he gets better work done with the 2HBH, where he takes the ball a lot earlier.
RoS is one of his major weaknesses overall, so I'm not saying he has a worldbeater BH Ros. But I see a lot of potential there and maybe he could tweak his positioning to favor that side more.
 
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