veroniquem
Bionic Poster
Yes, I think he has (gotten better in other ways). As I said, whatever decline he is having cannot be significant (yet), otherwise, he wouldn't be making all those finals, no way.
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Wish one could say the same for you.Don't, your going to make them cry. They will have to use their brains for once.
regardless of his overall results, just by watching individual matches, he has declined in certain areas. Namely his backhand and movement. Maybe he's gotten better in other ways to make up for it.
His buttpicking is the same, no decline thus.
Kiki must be Nadal's official buttpicking monitor. It's a dirty job but somebody has to do it. :lol:
I thought Hawkeye kept tabs on that. It does a lot more than just track where the ball landed.Kiki must be Nadal's official buttpicking monitor. It's a dirty job but somebody has to do it. :lol:
I believe "declined" is not the most accurate term for what has happened to Nadal.
I'd say its more like "regressed".
Nadal has stopped being quite as aggressive as he was in 09-10 and gotten back in the habit of more passive baseline rallies, farther behind the baseline, trying to outlast his opponent. Obviously this does not work against Djokovic and as we saw in Indian Wells it does not work against Federer either (when Fed isnt making 100+ UE's).
So Nadals level of tennis (physically and skill) are just as high, its just his patterns of play have altered more back to his past form where he relies less on taking control and winning the point and more on trying to outlast during the point.
I'm closest to your opinion. There can't be any significant decline when someone makes every slam final, beating Murray or Fed on the way. Not only did Rafa do 4 slam finals in a row for the 1st time in his career (that's an improvement, not a decline) but he also reached every clay event final (MC, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG) for only the 2nd time in his career (the first was in 2007). How is that a decline exactly?
I think a lot of proponents of the decline theory are people who dislike Djoko and do not want to give credit to him under any circumstances and the only way not to give credit to Djoko is to claim Rafa played like crap. The truth though is that Djoko has become better. It happens. That means Rafa even at his very best is not guaranteed to beat Djoko anymore. That's happened to all the best players and it will happen to Djoko as well. One is the best until someone else becomes better. Then you can figure the other guy out or not. That's quite a challenge but that's what Rafa has to do right now.
ETA: I also refuse to use tournaments in the fall to back up the decline theory. Yes, Rafa played mediocre at WTF and the masters before but that has happened in previous seasons. He has played dismal tennis at WTF and other fall events before. So, that doesn't spell decline to me, more like a common Rafa trend. And his subsequent perf at AO certainly proves my point.
OK, obviously, we all have very strong subjective impressions about Nadal's decline or lack of decline. Here are some stats to help inject some objectivity (I know stats don't tell the whole story but still, one can use them) into the debate. I ranked Rafa's 8 seasons on the tour from best to worst for each stat:
Number of aces:
1- 2010: 310
2- 2008: 283
3- 2011: 267
4- 2006: 240
5- 2007: 238
6- 2009: 219 (ranked 53)
7- 2005: 219 (ranked 54)
8- 2004: 57
1st serve %:
1- 2004: 70%
2- 2005: 69% (ranked 1)
3/4- 2006/2008: 69% (ranked 4)
5/6- 2007/2009: 68% (ranked 5)
7- 2011: 68% (ranked 6)
8- 2010: 67%
1st serve points won:
1- 2010: 75%
2- 2007: 73%
3- 2006: 72% (ranked 27)
4- 2008: 72% (ranked 33)
5- 2011: 71% (ranked 29)
6- 2005: 71% (ranked 31)
7- 2009: 71% (ranked 35)
8- 2004: 67%
2nd serve points won:
1/2- 2008/2010: 60%
3/4/5- 2005/2006/2011: 57% (ranked 2)
6- 2009: 57% (ranked 3)
7- 2007: 56%
8- 2004: 54%
Service games won:
1- 2010: 90%
2- 2008: 88%
3- 2006: 86% (ranked 4)
4- 2007: 86% (ranked 5)
5- 2005: 84% (ranked 11)
6- 2009: 84% (ranked 16)
7- 2011: 83%
8- 2004: 77%
BP saved:
1- 2010: 69%
2- 2006: 68%
3/4- 2007/2008: 67%
5- 2009: 65%
6- 2005: 64% (ranked 11)
7- 2011: 64% (ranked 12)
8- 2004: 61%
1st serve return points won:
1- 2005: 37%
2- 2007: 35%
3- 2008: 34% (ranked 1)
4- 2011: 34% (ranked 4)
5- 2009: 33% (ranked 4)
6- 2004: 33% (ranked 10)
7- 2006: 32%
8- 2010: 31%
2nd serve return points won:
1/2- 2005/2009: 57% (ranked 1)
3- 2011: 57% (ranked 2)
4/5- 2008/2010: 55%
6- 2007: 54% (ranked 4)
7- 2006: 54% (ranked 7)
8- 2004: 53%
BP converted:
1- 2009: 47%
2- 2011: 46% (ranked 3)
3- 2005: 46% (ranked 4)
4- 2008: 45%
5- 2010: 44% (ranked eight)
6- 2007: 44% (ranked 11)
7- 2004: 43% (ranked 11)
8- 2006: 43% (ranked eighteen)
Return games won:
1- 2005: 38%
2- 2009: 34% (ranked 1)
3- 2011: 34% (ranked 3)
4- 2008: 33% (ranked 1)
5- 2007: 33% (ranked 2)
6- 2004: 30%
7- 2010: 29% (ranked 6)
8- 2006: 29% (ranked 12)
The only numbers that look bad for 2011 are BP saved and service games won. My interpretation is that it's due to confidence getting knocked down from being bullied by Djoko's improved return game rather than any physical/technical drop/ deficiency (= less clutch on crucial points on serve)
His return stats seem excellent to me.
Benhur: thanks a lot for calculating the ace %. The ATP didn't do it and I was too lazy to do it myself
His curse in 2011 was his difficulty to hold serve, that's true. The way I see it, it became harder and harder as Djoko continued beating him (confidencewise) but there could have been shoulder problems as well accounting for the stats. I hope he can fix all that in 2012.
There you again, making sense!When using 'data' we need to be careful to see both sides of the coin.
For example:
Data: Nadal reached 4 consecutive finals for the first time
Same Data: Nadal lost 4 consecutive finals for the first time
Whenever we introduce hypothesis like "If not for Joker 2.0, Rafa would have 13 slams" those are subjective assertions and we have moved away from data to opinion.
We also need to be careful to distinguish between 'decline' and 'range of variation'. For example Djoker 2011 will probably end up being a higher level than Djoker 2012. Decline? No, just normal variation in form. Did Fed play better in the last 6 months vs 2010-2011? Seems like. Is he getting better with age? Unlikely since he's already 30.
I think Rafa in 2011 did not decline but his form was not as good as 2010. Outside of this forum, most people understand that this whole smooth peak/prime curve that people talk about is highly theoretical. In reality you can have a bad year in your so called prime and a good year in your post prime career.Would it have mattered? Probably not, the way Djoker was playing!
That may have to do with Djoko's unreal return game in 2011. OK, I know I must have too much time on my handsbut out of curiosity, I listed the highest record scored in each category among Fed, Rafa and Djoko and this is what I got:
- aces: Federer: 695 in 2008 (ranked 3)
- 1st serve %: Nadal: 70% in 2004 (1)
- 1st serve pts won: Federer: 79% in 2011 (2)
- 2nd serve pts won: Nadal: 60% in 2008/2010 (1)
- service games won: Federer: 92% in 2004 (2)
- BPs saved: Federer: 73% in 2004 (2)
- 1st serve return pts won: Federer: 40% in 2003 (6)
- 2nd serve return pts won: Djokovic: 58% in 2011 (1)
- BPs converted: Djokovic: 48% in 2011 (2)
- Return games won: Djokovic: 39% in 2011 (1)
Those return stats by Djoko in 2011 were truly off the chart :shock:
Nadal has played 677 matches and has only lost 15 matches to players ranked outside the top 30. That is a 98% winning percentage. No other player, past or present, in the history of the sport, comes even close to these numbers. None.
Yah, that makes a lot of sense. Your logic is amazing. :-?So people outside the top 30 must be finding it more difficult to beat a grinder. So you are proving he *is* a grinder.![]()
So people outside the top 30 must be finding it more difficult to beat a grinder. So you are proving he *is* a grinder.![]()
That's truly interesting. Rafa lost confidence in his serve completely in 2011. In 2010, he was ranked 2 in service games won with a staggering rate of 90%. He went from that to being ranked 15 in 2011 with only 83%. It has to be a combination of things that explains such a severe drop.
Djoko's 2011 return game would have been hard enough to handle for 2010 Rafa but for a weaker serving Rafa, it simply became insurmountable.
Here's another interesting stat (from Abraxus). It's not about a specific stroke or shot but about Rafa's achievement in tennis overall. Just a little tidbit for all those people who think he's just a grinder.![]()
I also think a lot has to do with how he feels about that last shot/game/set he didn't win. There comes a time in tennis when panic takes over and the feeling that you are on a slippery slope when you start to lose. The young Nadal seemed to take this situation as a challenge because he had not so much to lose- he didn't have the status of being number one and all that entails.
Well,he doesn't have the status of being number one now,and hasn't for nearly a year so what's his problem? Nadal is never getting to number one again so I think he should be able to play without worrying about that at all.
Consistency maybe, but not peak level I'd say (at the very least not on clay).
Yup...Rafa only had a small decline in 2011, while Djoker improved primarily on the mental front.
Gradually, I think this shift had a major impact on Rafa mentally, because physically, I think he was just as capable to perform near peak as he was in 2010, but became terrified of Djoker.
AO2012 was a mega opportunity to turn the tide (with Djoker not being as sharp as he had been) but Rafa still let his nerves get the best of him in the end.
Will only get harder to deal with the mental demons, while also dealing with ongoing injuries and inevitable aging.
No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.
I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.
Statistics on many players over many years seem to indicate that once a player has played 600 matches(an amount Nadal reached last year), decline is almost inevitable. Lendl, who apparently reached 600 not long after he won his first Slam in '84, is a notable exception. Factor in Nadal's lovely stilland I think that it was virtually a given that he would decline, the 4 straight Slam finals nothwithstanding. Those unexplained losses to the likes of Mayer will, IMO, start croppping up more and more-not to mention his never ending string of injuries.
No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.
I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.
Well,he doesn't have the status of being number one now,and hasn't for nearly a year so what's his problem? Nadal is never getting to number one again so I think he should be able to play without worrying about that at all.
No no, it was a huge lapse in Uncle Toni's coaching in the final set. I think Toni had nerves at that point, not ****. Rafa is tough, but Toni has begun wilting and can't get rid of Vajda's image from his mind.Yup...Rafa only had a small decline in 2011, while Djoker improved primarily on the mental front.
Gradually, I think this shift had a major impact on Rafa mentally, because physically, I think he was just as capable to perform near peak as he was in 2010, but became terrified of Djoker.
AO2012 was a mega opportunity to turn the tide (with Djoker not being as sharp as he had been) but Rafa still let his nerves get the best of him in the end.
Will only get harder to deal with the mental demons, while also dealing with ongoing injuries and inevitable aging.
You really are one of the best posters on this forum. I like your opinions.Based on the objective data presented in this thread so far, I think we can clearly conclude that Nadal has not declined in any significant way whatsoever, and most of his reduction in titles is due to the Djoker's superior play.
/thread
Remarkable to have reached 4 slam finals with a virus. That shows he's definitely not in decline. Imagine how he'll be when he's out of this mysterious virus. Poor Fed could only manage some semis with mono, for which he's been laughed at for the last four years. What a weakling that Fed.No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.
All this talk of miles. I hope Nadal has a good Frequent Flyer package, he can cash in on them miles in his 30's and get some slams for free.I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.
You really are one of the best posters on this forum. I like your opinions.
Remarkable to have reached 4 slam finals with a virus. That shows he's definitely not in decline. Imagine how he'll be when he's out of this mysterious virus. Poor Fed could only manage some semis with mono, for which he's been laughed at for the last four years. What a weakling that Fed.
All this talk of miles. I hope Nadal has a good Frequent Flyer package, he can cash in on them miles in his 30's and get some slams for free.
edit: Muray just called and wants to know what virus this is, he'd like a shot of it too.
I must be delusional if everyone played like crap. I thought i heard Murray saying something like he reached 4 semis and was proud of it. Anyway, ignore me.This is such a tired argument. I do not care how many finals he reached. He reached them playing like crap while everyone(except Djesus)was playing like crap as well. I really laugh at people who think Nadal played good tennis last year because it's so far from the truth it's not even funny.
I must be delusional if everyone played like crap. I thought i heard Murray saying something like he reached 4 semis and was proud of it. Anyway, ignore me.
No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.
I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.