Is Nadal REALLY declining?

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veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Yes, I think he has (gotten better in other ways). As I said, whatever decline he is having cannot be significant (yet), otherwise, he wouldn't be making all those finals, no way.
 
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winstonplum

Hall of Fame
Quick answer, and the truth if I don't say, YES!!!!! His peak was clay season '08 to AO '09. Don't let 2010 fool you.
 

cknobman

Legend
regardless of his overall results, just by watching individual matches, he has declined in certain areas. Namely his backhand and movement. Maybe he's gotten better in other ways to make up for it.

I believe "declined" is not the most accurate term for what has happened to Nadal.

I'd say its more like "regressed".

Nadal has stopped being quite as aggressive as he was in 09-10 and gotten back in the habit of more passive baseline rallies, farther behind the baseline, trying to outlast his opponent. Obviously this does not work against Djokovic and as we saw in Indian Wells it does not work against Federer either (when Fed isnt making 100+ UE's).

So Nadals level of tennis (physically and skill) are just as high, its just his patterns of play have altered more back to his past form where he relies less on taking control and winning the point and more on trying to outlast during the point.
 
Nadal has not changed one bit. Not less aggressive, not worse BH, not worse anything. When the other guy plays that much better, it just makes it appear as you have declined. Not the case in reality.
 

Crisstti

Legend
I believe "declined" is not the most accurate term for what has happened to Nadal.

I'd say its more like "regressed".

Nadal has stopped being quite as aggressive as he was in 09-10 and gotten back in the habit of more passive baseline rallies, farther behind the baseline, trying to outlast his opponent. Obviously this does not work against Djokovic and as we saw in Indian Wells it does not work against Federer either (when Fed isnt making 100+ UE's).

So Nadals level of tennis (physically and skill) are just as high, its just his patterns of play have altered more back to his past form where he relies less on taking control and winning the point and more on trying to outlast during the point.

Those are good points. May well be the case.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
I'm closest to your opinion. There can't be any significant decline when someone makes every slam final, beating Murray or Fed on the way. Not only did Rafa do 4 slam finals in a row for the 1st time in his career (that's an improvement, not a decline) but he also reached every clay event final (MC, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG) for only the 2nd time in his career (the first was in 2007). How is that a decline exactly?
I think a lot of proponents of the decline theory are people who dislike Djoko and do not want to give credit to him under any circumstances and the only way not to give credit to Djoko is to claim Rafa played like crap. The truth though is that Djoko has become better. It happens. That means Rafa even at his very best is not guaranteed to beat Djoko anymore. That's happened to all the best players and it will happen to Djoko as well. One is the best until someone else becomes better. Then you can figure the other guy out or not. That's quite a challenge but that's what Rafa has to do right now.
ETA: I also refuse to use tournaments in the fall to back up the decline theory. Yes, Rafa played mediocre at WTF and the masters before but that has happened in previous seasons. He has played dismal tennis at WTF and other fall events before. So, that doesn't spell decline to me, more like a common Rafa trend. And his subsequent perf at AO certainly proves my point.

Very good post.

I kind of agree with most of what you said. Nadal's consistency has been staggering recently. Since F0 10, he only failed to reach ONE slam final, and you can say that IF he was not injured in that brutal match with Ferrer, who knows, he could have been on an 8 slam final streak. That kind of consistency shows a very high level of play.

I mean if he has decline so much, what does that say about the so called tough era in tennis, where a declining player is making slam final after slam final, and is still the King of Clay.
 
N

NadalAgassi

Guest
It depends on the surface really:

Clay- HUGE decline. Probably playing something between his 2004 level and 2005 level. If the Nadal of 2011 played the Nadal of say 2008 Rolland Garros he would be getting bageled and breadsticked.

Hard Courts- No decline. Was never in as many hard court finals as last year. Djokovic at his current level is predictably too good for him on this surface, when he was even a tough opponent for Nadal on it before last year.

Grass- Not enough events so hard to say. His level at Wimbledon 2011 was adequate, but definitely below his level on grass in 2007-2008 especialy.

Indoors- Nadal doesnt play many events so again hard to say. 2011 WTF was extremely poor though, probably on par or even worse than his previous worst effort at the 2009 WTF.
 

kragster

Hall of Fame
When using 'data' we need to be careful to see both sides of the coin.

For example:

Data: Nadal reached 4 consecutive finals for the first time
Same Data: Nadal lost 4 consecutive finals for the first time

Whenever we introduce hypothesis like "If not for Joker 2.0, Rafa would have 13 slams" those are subjective assertions and we have moved away from data to opinion.

We also need to be careful to distinguish between 'decline' and 'range of variation'. For example Djoker 2011 will probably end up being a higher level than Djoker 2012. Decline? No, just normal variation in form. Did Fed play better in the last 6 months vs 2010-2011? Seems like. Is he getting better with age? Unlikely since he's already 30.

I think Rafa in 2011 did not decline but his form was not as good as 2010. Outside of this forum, most people understand that this whole smooth peak/prime curve that people talk about is highly theoretical. In reality you can have a bad year in your so called prime and a good year in your post prime career.Would it have mattered? Probably not, the way Djoker was playing!
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
OK, obviously, we all have very strong subjective impressions about Nadal's decline or lack of decline. Here are some stats to help inject some objectivity (I know stats don't tell the whole story but still, one can use them) into the debate. I ranked Rafa's 8 seasons on the tour from best to worst for each stat:

Number of aces:
1- 2010: 310
2- 2008: 283
3- 2011: 267
4- 2006: 240
5- 2007: 238
6- 2009: 219 (ranked 53)
7- 2005: 219 (ranked 54)
8- 2004: 57


1st serve %:
1- 2004: 70%
2- 2005: 69% (ranked 1)
3/4- 2006/2008: 69% (ranked 4)
5/6- 2007/2009: 68% (ranked 5)
7- 2011: 68% (ranked 6)
8- 2010: 67%

1st serve points won:
1- 2010: 75%
2- 2007: 73%
3- 2006: 72% (ranked 27)
4- 2008: 72% (ranked 33)
5- 2011: 71% (ranked 29)
6- 2005: 71% (ranked 31)
7- 2009: 71% (ranked 35)
8- 2004: 67%

2nd serve points won:
1/2- 2008/2010: 60%
3/4/5- 2005/2006/2011: 57% (ranked 2)
6- 2009: 57% (ranked 3)
7- 2007: 56%
8- 2004: 54%

Service games won:
1- 2010: 90%
2- 2008: 88%
3- 2006: 86% (ranked 4)
4- 2007: 86% (ranked 5)
5- 2005: 84% (ranked 11)
6- 2009: 84% (ranked 16)
7- 2011: 83%
8- 2004: 77%

BP saved:
1- 2010: 69%
2- 2006: 68%
3/4- 2007/2008: 67%
5- 2009: 65%
6- 2005: 64% (ranked 11)
7- 2011: 64% (ranked 12)
8- 2004: 61%

1st serve return points won:
1- 2005: 37%
2- 2007: 35%
3- 2008: 34% (ranked 1)
4- 2011: 34% (ranked 4)
5- 2009: 33% (ranked 4)
6- 2004: 33% (ranked 10)
7- 2006: 32%
8- 2010: 31%

2nd serve return points won:
1/2- 2005/2009: 57% (ranked 1)
3- 2011: 57% (ranked 2)
4/5- 2008/2010: 55%
6- 2007: 54% (ranked 4)
7- 2006: 54% (ranked 7)
8- 2004: 53%

BP converted:
1- 2009: 47%
2- 2011: 46% (ranked 3)
3- 2005: 46% (ranked 4)
4- 2008: 45%
5- 2010: 44% (ranked eight)
6- 2007: 44% (ranked 11)
7- 2004: 43% (ranked 11)
8- 2006: 43% (ranked eighteen)

Return games won:
1- 2005: 38%
2- 2009: 34% (ranked 1)
3- 2011: 34% (ranked 3)
4- 2008: 33% (ranked 1)
5- 2007: 33% (ranked 2)
6- 2004: 30%
7- 2010: 29% (ranked 6)
8- 2006: 29% (ranked 12)


The only numbers that look bad for 2011 are BP saved and service games won. My interpretation is that it's due to confidence getting knocked down from being bullied by Djoko's improved return game rather than any physical/technical drop/ deficiency (= less clutch on crucial points on serve)
His return stats seem excellent to me.
 
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^^^ Stats are important but of course they will be a bit skewed according to the question being asked. The question is, had Nadal declined? i.e. have his results been mainly due to his decline or due to Djoker's better level. To answer this question, we must absolutely look at the stats, BUT the contributions to those numbers from Djoker must be removed to look at Nadal's stats against the rest of the field. Looking at that, the stats above would show even more that 2011 is as good as all of his other best years.
 

Benhur

Hall of Fame
OK, obviously, we all have very strong subjective impressions about Nadal's decline or lack of decline. Here are some stats to help inject some objectivity (I know stats don't tell the whole story but still, one can use them) into the debate. I ranked Rafa's 8 seasons on the tour from best to worst for each stat:

Number of aces:
1- 2010: 310
2- 2008: 283
3- 2011: 267
4- 2006: 240
5- 2007: 238
6- 2009: 219 (ranked 53)
7- 2005: 219 (ranked 54)
8- 2004: 57


1st serve %:
1- 2004: 70%
2- 2005: 69% (ranked 1)
3/4- 2006/2008: 69% (ranked 4)
5/6- 2007/2009: 68% (ranked 5)
7- 2011: 68% (ranked 6)
8- 2010: 67%

1st serve points won:
1- 2010: 75%
2- 2007: 73%
3- 2006: 72% (ranked 27)
4- 2008: 72% (ranked 33)
5- 2011: 71% (ranked 29)
6- 2005: 71% (ranked 31)
7- 2009: 71% (ranked 35)
8- 2004: 67%

2nd serve points won:
1/2- 2008/2010: 60%
3/4/5- 2005/2006/2011: 57% (ranked 2)
6- 2009: 57% (ranked 3)
7- 2007: 56%
8- 2004: 54%

Service games won:
1- 2010: 90%
2- 2008: 88%
3- 2006: 86% (ranked 4)
4- 2007: 86% (ranked 5)
5- 2005: 84% (ranked 11)
6- 2009: 84% (ranked 16)
7- 2011: 83%
8- 2004: 77%

BP saved:
1- 2010: 69%
2- 2006: 68%
3/4- 2007/2008: 67%
5- 2009: 65%
6- 2005: 64% (ranked 11)
7- 2011: 64% (ranked 12)
8- 2004: 61%

1st serve return points won:
1- 2005: 37%
2- 2007: 35%
3- 2008: 34% (ranked 1)
4- 2011: 34% (ranked 4)
5- 2009: 33% (ranked 4)
6- 2004: 33% (ranked 10)
7- 2006: 32%
8- 2010: 31%

2nd serve return points won:
1/2- 2005/2009: 57% (ranked 1)
3- 2011: 57% (ranked 2)
4/5- 2008/2010: 55%
6- 2007: 54% (ranked 4)
7- 2006: 54% (ranked 7)
8- 2004: 53%

BP converted:
1- 2009: 47%
2- 2011: 46% (ranked 3)
3- 2005: 46% (ranked 4)
4- 2008: 45%
5- 2010: 44% (ranked eight)
6- 2007: 44% (ranked 11)
7- 2004: 43% (ranked 11)
8- 2006: 43% (ranked eighteen)

Return games won:
1- 2005: 38%
2- 2009: 34% (ranked 1)
3- 2011: 34% (ranked 3)
4- 2008: 33% (ranked 1)
5- 2007: 33% (ranked 2)
6- 2004: 30%
7- 2010: 29% (ranked 6)
8- 2006: 29% (ranked 12)


The only numbers that look bad for 2011 are BP saved and service games won. My interpretation is that it's due to confidence getting knocked down from being bullied by Djoko's improved return game rather than any physical/technical drop/ deficiency (= less clutch on crucial points on serve)
His return stats seem excellent to me.

Interesting stats. Yes it does look as if the serve performance (service games won) is what separates his best two seasons from the rest. 90% is a phenomenal holding percentage. Remarkably, 2010 shows his second worst return performance at "only" 29% of return games won. But of course that's still a very high rate, and coupled with a 90% holding percentage it means you are virtually unbeatable. Just out of curiosity I divided the aces by the number of matches played in each season, but the results are very similar to ordering them by absolute numbers, except that 2006 moves to second place.

1- 2010: 310 (3.83 per match)
2- 2006: 240 (3.38 per match)
3- 2011: 267 (3.18 per match)
4- 2008: 283 (3.04)
5- 2007: 238 (2.80)
6- 2009: 219 (2.74)
7- 2005: 219 (2.46)
8- 2004: 57 (1.21)
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Benhur: thanks a lot for calculating the ace %. The ATP didn't do it and I was too lazy to do it myself :oops:
His curse in 2011 was his difficulty to hold serve, that's true. The way I see it, it became harder and harder as Djoko continued beating him (confidencewise) but there could have been shoulder problems as well accounting for the stats. I hope he can fix all that in 2012.
 

Benhur

Hall of Fame
Benhur: thanks a lot for calculating the ace %. The ATP didn't do it and I was too lazy to do it myself :oops:
His curse in 2011 was his difficulty to hold serve, that's true. The way I see it, it became harder and harder as Djoko continued beating him (confidencewise) but there could have been shoulder problems as well accounting for the stats. I hope he can fix all that in 2012.

I was going to calculate aces per point served, which would be much more precise, but then gave up because of laziness too.

Anyway, 83% is still a decent holding percentage, and no doubt it would be a little higher than 83 if you took out the matches with Djokovic (but not a lot higher since it’s only 6 matches out of 84). The USO final in particular has to be by far the most horrible serving performance by Nadal I ever remember. It was due in part to Djokovic’s outstanding return -- but only in part. Nadal was broken 12 times in 18 service games. That’s a 33% holding. That’s losing serve 2 times out of 3 (!!). Djokovic’s holding percentage in that match was also very poor at 68%, but compared with Nadal's it seems stellar. If you take out the USO final, Nadal’s holding percentage for the year goes up to 84, and if you take out all matches with Djokovic it may go up to about 85 -- still a long way from 2010.

These are Nadal’s holding percentages in his matches with Djokovic in 2011, all well below his average for the year, except in Miami.

IW final 62%
Miami final 87%
Madrid final 55%
Rome final 60%
Wimbledon final 69%
USO final 33%
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
That may have to do with Djoko's unreal return game in 2011. OK, I know I must have too much time on my hands :) but out of curiosity, I listed the highest record scored in each category among Fed, Rafa and Djoko and this is what I got:

- aces: Federer: 695 in 2008 (ranked 3)
- 1st serve %: Nadal: 70% in 2004 (1)
- 1st serve pts won: Federer: 79% in 2011 (2)
- 2nd serve pts won: Nadal: 60% in 2008/2010 (1)
- service games won: Federer: 92% in 2004 (2)
- BPs saved: Federer: 73% in 2004 (2)
- 1st serve return pts won: Federer: 40% in 2003 (6)
- 2nd serve return pts won: Djokovic: 58% in 2011 (1)
- BPs converted: Djokovic: 48% in 2011 (2)
- Return games won: Djokovic: 39% in 2011 (1)

Those return stats by Djoko in 2011 were truly off the chart :shock:
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
When using 'data' we need to be careful to see both sides of the coin.

For example:

Data: Nadal reached 4 consecutive finals for the first time
Same Data: Nadal lost 4 consecutive finals for the first time

Whenever we introduce hypothesis like "If not for Joker 2.0, Rafa would have 13 slams" those are subjective assertions and we have moved away from data to opinion.

We also need to be careful to distinguish between 'decline' and 'range of variation'. For example Djoker 2011 will probably end up being a higher level than Djoker 2012. Decline? No, just normal variation in form. Did Fed play better in the last 6 months vs 2010-2011? Seems like. Is he getting better with age? Unlikely since he's already 30.

I think Rafa in 2011 did not decline but his form was not as good as 2010. Outside of this forum, most people understand that this whole smooth peak/prime curve that people talk about is highly theoretical. In reality you can have a bad year in your so called prime and a good year in your post prime career.Would it have mattered? Probably not, the way Djoker was playing!
There you again, making sense!
 

Benhur

Hall of Fame
That may have to do with Djoko's unreal return game in 2011. OK, I know I must have too much time on my hands :) but out of curiosity, I listed the highest record scored in each category among Fed, Rafa and Djoko and this is what I got:

- aces: Federer: 695 in 2008 (ranked 3)
- 1st serve %: Nadal: 70% in 2004 (1)
- 1st serve pts won: Federer: 79% in 2011 (2)
- 2nd serve pts won: Nadal: 60% in 2008/2010 (1)
- service games won: Federer: 92% in 2004 (2)
- BPs saved: Federer: 73% in 2004 (2)
- 1st serve return pts won: Federer: 40% in 2003 (6)
- 2nd serve return pts won: Djokovic: 58% in 2011 (1)
- BPs converted: Djokovic: 48% in 2011 (2)
- Return games won: Djokovic: 39% in 2011 (1)

Those return stats by Djoko in 2011 were truly off the chart :shock:

Yes, Djokovic in 2011 won an astonishing 39% of his return games against the field. That's out of this world. But this is what’s interesting. If you take the holding percentages by Nadal in his matches against Djokovic in 2011, and you calculate the average, you get 61% (it’s not the proper way to do it, but it should be close enough). This means that Djokovic had the same success breaking serve against Nadal (39%) as he did against the average Joe he met that year (average ranking of about 40 or so). And that seems odd. It seems odd because of course Nadal always has a much higher holding percentage against the field than the average player. And yet this average player, when serving against Djokovic, didn't fare any worse than Nadal. So either Nadal served much worse against Djokovic than usual, or Djokovic returned much better agaisnt Nadal than usual.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
That's truly interesting. Rafa lost confidence in his serve completely in 2011. In 2010, he was ranked 2 in service games won with a staggering rate of 90%. He went from that to being ranked 15 in 2011 with only 83%. It has to be a combination of things that explains such a severe drop.
Djoko's 2011 return game would have been hard enough to handle for 2010 Rafa but for a weaker serving Rafa, it simply became insurmountable.

ETA: on the whole Rafa was the one who dominated most stats throughout his career. He was #1 in serve % (2004/2005), 2nd serve pts won (2008/2010) , 1st serve return pts won (2005/2008), 2nd serve return pts won (2005, 2008, 2009, 2010), BPs converted (2009) and return games won (2005, 2008, 2009).
Djoko was #1 in 2nd serve return pts won (2011), BPs converted (2008) and return games won (2011). Fed was #1 only in 2nd serve pts won (2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011) and BPs saved (2006).
 
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vernonbc

Legend
Here's another interesting stat (from Abraxus). It's not about a specific stroke or shot but about Rafa's achievement in tennis overall. Just a little tidbit for all those people who think he's just a grinder. ;)

Nadal has played 677 matches and has only lost 15 matches to players ranked outside the top 30. That is a 98% winning percentage. No other player, past or present, in the history of the sport, comes even close to these numbers. None.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
So people outside the top 30 must be finding it more difficult to beat a grinder. So you are proving he *is* a grinder. ;)
 

Benhur

Hall of Fame
That's truly interesting. Rafa lost confidence in his serve completely in 2011. In 2010, he was ranked 2 in service games won with a staggering rate of 90%. He went from that to being ranked 15 in 2011 with only 83%. It has to be a combination of things that explains such a severe drop.
Djoko's 2011 return game would have been hard enough to handle for 2010 Rafa but for a weaker serving Rafa, it simply became insurmountable.

Certainly 83 is a significant drop from 90, but it’s still a good 5 points above the average for the field, which I figure must be about 77-78 percent these days if you average the holding percentages in all the important tournaments. So you would expect this difference to be reflected as well in his performance against Djokovic. But it isn’t. Nadal’s holding percentage against Djokovic in 2011 was indistinguishable from the field against Djokovic. One possible explanation (that may please the hearts of Djokovic fans) is that the Djokovic return game became so phenomenally good, it just could not be bothered to distinguish between Nadal and the field, just like a cheetah may not distinguish between the speeds of two different species of mice. But, more seriously, the most plausible explanation I can see is that in one of those matches (USO final) Nadal’s holding percentage was so catastrophically low it skews the total. If you take out the USO final as a freak anomaly, the average goes up to nearly 67, and the expected difference between Nadal and the field is reflected. His holding percentage in their only match to date in 2012 (AO) is 74%.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
That makes sense and it would back up my theory that the loss that affected Rafa the most mentally was the Wimbledon one. USO was their next match afterwards and Rafa was just extra nervous. Hopefully, the AO match will help him get rid of some of those nerves, seeing how close to victory he was.
Amazing stat, vernonbc, thanks for sharing!
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Here's another interesting stat (from Abraxus). It's not about a specific stroke or shot but about Rafa's achievement in tennis overall. Just a little tidbit for all those people who think he's just a grinder. ;)

Well no, that's under the assumption he played 667 matches against players outside the top 30....then you get to 98%. But he hasn't, thats all his matches, it's a double-count lol.
 

rafan

Hall of Fame
I also think a lot has to do with how he feels about that last shot/game/set he didn't win. There comes a time in tennis when panic takes over and the feeling that you are on a slippery slope when you start to lose. The young Nadal seemed to take this situation as a challenge because he had not so much to lose- he didn't have the status of being number one and all that entails.
 

Clarky21

Banned
I also think a lot has to do with how he feels about that last shot/game/set he didn't win. There comes a time in tennis when panic takes over and the feeling that you are on a slippery slope when you start to lose. The young Nadal seemed to take this situation as a challenge because he had not so much to lose- he didn't have the status of being number one and all that entails.


Well,he doesn't have the status of being number one now,and hasn't for nearly a year so what's his problem? Nadal is never getting to number one again so I think he should be able to play without worrying about that at all.
 

Leto

Semi-Pro
Well,he doesn't have the status of being number one now,and hasn't for nearly a year so what's his problem? Nadal is never getting to number one again so I think he should be able to play without worrying about that at all.

Rafa's best shot at regaining #1 would have to be this year, and I agree that this would be a long shot.

I think he has declined a bit from his peak, but it's the born-again Djokovic that is the bigger factor. Rafa almost deserved to have relaxing, cake-walk-like season in 2011, but thanks to Novak, his downward spiral accelerated pretty fast. Especially on the mental front.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Consistency maybe, but not peak level I'd say (at the very least not on clay).

It's possible, I said this before but maybe Nadal's level on average was higher in 2011 than in 2010 but the highest level of tennis he could produce wasn't as good as it was in 2010. In other words it's possible that in 2010 his level fluctuated more but he reached higher highs (and lower lows) if that makes sense.

However I still maintain that regardless of all that the comparison with Fed's 2008-2009 is faulty in a sense that Fed was reaching slam final after slam final since 2004 basically so him repeating that feat in 2008 and/or 2009 is quite different from Nadal for the first time in his career reaching 3-4 slam finals in a row, that is a whole new territory for him.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
2010 is clearly Rafa's best year in terms of serving. It was his best year in terms of: aces, 1st serve pts won, 2nd serve pts won, service games won and BPs saved. Interestingly, that same year, he seems to have neglected his return game a lot: it was his worst year for 1st serve return and return games won (2nd worse). That's what spelled trouble for 2011: no more invincible serve and regression on return. He did right the ship for return in 2011 but not enough to counter a Novak who improved by leaps and bounds. I think Rafa was close to his best in return in 2011: 57% for 2nd serve return and 38% for return games won, those are very high stats that would normally put him at #1 (they did in 2005, 2008 and 2009). The problem is that in 2011, Djoko overcame Rafa's best ever stats in the return department, something that I have to admit I didn't believe was possible and yet it happened. Djoko simply GOATED on the return in 2011.

ETA: 2011 was one of Rafa's 3 best seasons (out of eight) in: # of aces, second serve returns, break points converted and return games won. (1st serve returns was his 4th best).

Crisstti: many thanks :)
 
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Based on the objective data presented in this thread so far, I think we can clearly conclude that Nadal has not declined in any significant way whatsoever, and most of his reduction in titles is due to the Djoker's superior play.

/thread
 

dafinch

Banned
Statistics on many players over many years seem to indicate that once a player has played 600 matches(an amount Nadal reached last year), decline is almost inevitable. Lendl, who apparently reached 600 not long after he won his first Slam in '84, is a notable exception. Factor in Nadal's lovely still:rolleyes: and I think that it was virtually a given that he would decline, the 4 straight Slam finals nothwithstanding. Those unexplained losses to the likes of Mayer will, IMO, start croppping up more and more-not to mention his never ending string of injuries.
 

Leto

Semi-Pro
Yup...Rafa only had a small decline in 2011, while Djoker improved primarily on the mental front.

Gradually, I think this shift had a major impact on Rafa mentally, because physically, I think he was just as capable to perform near peak as he was in 2010, but became terrified of Djoker.

AO2012 was a mega opportunity to turn the tide (with Djoker not being as sharp as he had been) but Rafa still let his nerves get the best of him in the end.

Will only get harder to deal with the mental demons, while also dealing with ongoing injuries and inevitable aging.
 

Clarky21

Banned
Yup...Rafa only had a small decline in 2011, while Djoker improved primarily on the mental front.

Gradually, I think this shift had a major impact on Rafa mentally, because physically, I think he was just as capable to perform near peak as he was in 2010, but became terrified of Djoker.

AO2012 was a mega opportunity to turn the tide (with Djoker not being as sharp as he had been) but Rafa still let his nerves get the best of him in the end.

Will only get harder to deal with the mental demons, while also dealing with ongoing injuries and inevitable aging.

No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.

I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.
 

Leto

Semi-Pro
No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.

I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.

Djoker has less mileage than Rafa in terms of actual matches played. But Rafa's mental demons are no longer just about Djoker. I know weather was bad at IW 2012, but he almost looked like an amateur in that loss to Fed.

And if Miami had been Monte Carlo instead, he probably wouldn't have withdrawn and may have just pulled out a win over Murray. Instead, he didn't even want to give it a try.

It is true that he had a flu for a brief time in 2011, but he could still beat everybody during all of the slam season, except for Djoker.

After USO he was truly a beaten man, mentally, so losses from that point on could almost be expected. 2011 was primed to be the year where everyone expected he would REALLY close the gap with Fed for GS Titles. How could he really care about the post-USO season (and not be mentally drained) after such a disappointing GS season. (And I realize that any other player at start of 2011, even Djoker, would have been happy to just win RG, but Rafa is the one guy who I think expected WAY more than that.)
 
C

celoft

Guest
Statistics on many players over many years seem to indicate that once a player has played 600 matches(an amount Nadal reached last year), decline is almost inevitable. Lendl, who apparently reached 600 not long after he won his first Slam in '84, is a notable exception. Factor in Nadal's lovely still:rolleyes: and I think that it was virtually a given that he would decline, the 4 straight Slam finals nothwithstanding. Those unexplained losses to the likes of Mayer will, IMO, start croppping up more and more-not to mention his never ending string of injuries.

No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.

I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.

It's not about age but mileage.

Lendl being the exception a gazillion years ago, most players decline after 600 matches. It even happened to Federer. Djokovic should pass the 600 matches next year and that's when we will see a gradual decline from the Serbian. He should try and win as many slams as he can in 2012 and 2013 because in 2014 it will be harder for him at the slams.

This year I expect multiple slams from the Serbian but in 2013, I'm not sure he will win multiple slams. A slam probably but multiple slams is not something I'm sure he will do in 2013 and 2014 for several reasons mainly the mileage.
 
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rafan

Hall of Fame
Well,he doesn't have the status of being number one now,and hasn't for nearly a year so what's his problem? Nadal is never getting to number one again so I think he should be able to play without worrying about that at all.

Do you actually PLAY tennis?
 

vil

Semi-Pro
I'm sure this was said before. I think it's a simple formula. If you play hard physical game, it will catch up with you relatively sooner than later. You will simply burn out or injuries will start creeping up. Rafa is no exception. Like someone said, he is trying to match Federer's slam record but with his style of play I don't think he has a chance and I haven't even mentioned mental part.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Yup...Rafa only had a small decline in 2011, while Djoker improved primarily on the mental front.

Gradually, I think this shift had a major impact on Rafa mentally, because physically, I think he was just as capable to perform near peak as he was in 2010, but became terrified of Djoker.

AO2012 was a mega opportunity to turn the tide (with Djoker not being as sharp as he had been) but Rafa still let his nerves get the best of him in the end.

Will only get harder to deal with the mental demons, while also dealing with ongoing injuries and inevitable aging.
No no, it was a huge lapse in Uncle Toni's coaching in the final set. I think Toni had nerves at that point, not ****. Rafa is tough, but Toni has begun wilting and can't get rid of Vajda's image from his mind.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Based on the objective data presented in this thread so far, I think we can clearly conclude that Nadal has not declined in any significant way whatsoever, and most of his reduction in titles is due to the Djoker's superior play.

/thread
You really are one of the best posters on this forum. I like your opinions.
No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.
Remarkable to have reached 4 slam finals with a virus. That shows he's definitely not in decline. Imagine how he'll be when he's out of this mysterious virus. Poor Fed could only manage some semis with mono, for which he's been laughed at for the last four years. What a weakling that Fed.
I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.
All this talk of miles. I hope Nadal has a good Frequent Flyer package, he can cash in on them miles in his 30's and get some slams for free.:)

edit: Muray just called and wants to know what virus this is, he'd like a shot of it too.
 

Clarky21

Banned
You really are one of the best posters on this forum. I like your opinions.

Remarkable to have reached 4 slam finals with a virus. That shows he's definitely not in decline. Imagine how he'll be when he's out of this mysterious virus. Poor Fed could only manage some semis with mono, for which he's been laughed at for the last four years. What a weakling that Fed.

All this talk of miles. I hope Nadal has a good Frequent Flyer package, he can cash in on them miles in his 30's and get some slams for free.:)

edit: Muray just called and wants to know what virus this is, he'd like a shot of it too.


This is such a tired argument. I do not care how many finals he reached. He reached them playing like crap while everyone(except Djesus)was playing like crap as well. I really laugh at people who think Nadal played good tennis last year because it's so far from the truth it's not even funny.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
This is such a tired argument. I do not care how many finals he reached. He reached them playing like crap while everyone(except Djesus)was playing like crap as well. I really laugh at people who think Nadal played good tennis last year because it's so far from the truth it's not even funny.
I must be delusional if everyone played like crap. I thought i heard Murray saying something like he reached 4 semis and was proud of it. Anyway, ignore me.
 

Towser83

G.O.A.T.
I must be delusional if everyone played like crap. I thought i heard Murray saying something like he reached 4 semis and was proud of it. Anyway, ignore me.

yeah but Murray only reached all those semis cos everyone else was playing like crap you see. Though going down this path of "logic" if everyone was playing like crap then the relative difference is the same as if everyone was playing well, so Nadal making all those finals shouldn't be possible (when he never did it before) unless he is playing decent and has an advantage over the other crap players. Unless everyone else was playing well in other years and Nadal has always played like crap, thus when everyone else starts to pla like crap, Nadal gets a boost.
 

Towser83

G.O.A.T.
No he wasn't. He was huffing and puffing during 3 set matches,and looked exhausted all the time. He looked sickly and wore out all of last year. Not to mention the insane sweating he seemed to do all through last year as well. I still wonder if he has/had some kind of virus or something. At times he simply did not look well at all.

I know Nadal is old in tennis years,but Djesus isn't that far behind him himself. He plays just as physically as Nadal does,and he too will eventually start to show signs of wear and tear. That too,is inevitable as well,especially with Djesus making the finals of practically every tournament he enters. He is also turning 25 this year,and the miles will catch up to him just like it does with everyone.

The difference is though, Djokovic didn't kill his body when he was young and still growing. Nadal was doing this when he was 15 years old. People laughed with Djokovic retiring left right and centre, but on the other hand he picked up very few lasting injuries, and might have the last laugh if it turns out he protected his body while it was getting strong and growing and now has better physical qualities because of it. Guess we'll have to see.
 
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