Is Nadal's career on clay realistically over if he doesn't win RG this year, or at least have a very strong showing?

[Jokervich]

Nadal hasn't won any clay titles so far this year and in the events he has played, he's barely made it very far through the draw. Yes he was injured for part of it, but lets face it, would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in, and Barcelona with Alcaraz in the draw? Highly doubtful.

Then you look at last year, he was humiliated by Djokovic at RG. This year it looks unlikely he wins the tournament, with Djokovic and Alcaraz in very strong form. Heck even Tsitsipas or Zverev could probably beat him or take him to 5 sets with the form he's showing.

With Nadal declining and injuries getting worse each year, Djokovic having the edge over Nadal on clay these days, and Alcaraz improving every year, can Nadal realistically do anything on clay anymore? Will his clay career realistically be over if he doesn't win RG or have a very strong showing there? Poll included.

 

[Nadal>>>>>Federer]

Nadal will only become a non-factor at RG when he retires.

 

[Backspin1183]

It is over. He can only win AO and USO now.

 

[Kralingen]

Utter nonsense as usual.

 

[MichaelNadal]

BO5 matches on Chatrier with a day off between......
As bad as things look r.n if he’s still fit enough to play 5.5 hour GS finals, im not writing him off

 

[Gt86]

Nadal hasn't won any clay titles so far this year and in the events he has played, he's barely made it very far through the draw. Yes he was injured for part of it, but lets face it, would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in, and Barcelona with Alcaraz in the draw? Highly doubtful.

Then you look at last year, he was humiliated by Djokovic at RG. This year it looks unlikely he wins the tournament, with Djokovic and Alcaraz in very strong form. Heck even Tsitsipas or Zverev could probably beat him or take him to 5 sets with the form he's showing.

With Nadal declining and injuries getting worse each year, Djokovic having the edge over Nadal on clay these days, and Alcaraz improving every year, can Nadal realistically do anything on clay anymore? Will his clay career realistically be over if he doesn't win RG or have a very strong showing there? Poll included.

His career is all but over on any surface. Since 2019 he has not played many tournaments in a row. Obviously Covid was a factor but he simply is incapable of playing week in week out.
I might be wrong. Probably am. But tonight looking at his body language I am not totally convinced we will see him again. Never seen him look so forlorn. He put a brave face on in the presser.
He might play RG so he can say goodbye but I am convinced he will call it a day after RG .

 

[GabeT]

as a nadal fan it pains me to say so but yes

 

[Kralingen]

His career is all but over on any surface. Since 2019 he has not played many tournaments in a row. Obviously Covid was a factor but he simply is incapable of playing week in week out.
I might be wrong. Probably am. But tonight looking at his body language I am not totally convinced we will see him again. Never seen him look so forlorn. He put a brave face on in the presser.
He might play RG so he can say goodbye but I am convinced he will call it a day after RG .

So explain this then. He looked twice as bad at Washington in 2021, missed 6 months, then came back and won 23 straight matches.

but now he’s done forever? I’m not convinced he’s even done for this clay season let alone for the rest of the year.

 

[Newballsplease872]

It would be over outside clay as well if the Australian authorities didn't rig it for him at the Asterisked AO 22

 

[StrongRule]

Utter nonsense as usual.

When it comes to Djokovic you easily write him off, when he is down a break in the first set. But Nadal is losing to mugs time after time without even giving a fight, and you keep overrating him?

 

[Gt86]

BO5 matches on Chatrier with a day off between......
As bad as things look r.n if he’s still fit enough to play 5.5 hour GS finals, im not writing him off

That was 5 months ago though after 9 months off.
Some of his recent comments and his body language tonight just seem a bit of an indicator where his head is at .
The guy who is going to be an utter beast in bo5 with a day off in between is Alcaraz .
Just feels like fate is playing a role RG just feels like it may be the Goodbye to Rafa and Alcaraz takes over the mantle. Just seems that's how it is playing out. Rafa winning Melbourne in such glorious epic style and the emergence of Alcaraz seems almost biblical lol

 

[Kralingen]

When it comes to Djokovic you easily write him off, when he is down a break in the first set. But Nadal is losing to mugs time after time without even giving a fight, and you keep overrating him?

I was probably the only person on this forum who said that Rafa was second favorite for AO 22 while he was out injured. And then when Djoko was deported I kept saying Nadal would win it.

I guess I was wrong then too?
Edit: quoted for proof, typed this on January 5th

Nadal is coming onto Rod Laver Arena now, if anyone else cares to tune in.

you’re likely looking at the favorite for the 2022 AO, as crazy as that feels to type about Nadal.

 

[NoleFam]

How many times have we been down this road? He looked done in 2015 and 2016, and then 2017 happened. He looked done in 2020 and then a performance of a lifetime in the RG final. He looked done last year and then waltzed into AO 22 and won it while not playing at all for 6 months. This cat has 9 lives. The only way I will believe it's over is when he says he's retiring.

 

[weakera]

You could get whiplash with how quickly the narratives shift here and how certain posters seem to disappear and reappear with those changes

 

[StrongRule]

BO5 matches on Chatrier with a day off between......
As bad as things look r.n if he’s still fit enough to play 5.5 hour GS finals, im not writing him off

He is so physically weak in the last 2 years that BO5 is bad for him now. We have seen it last year, when he was dead in the fourth set. AO final this year was the only exception.

 

[Gt86]

So explain this then. He looked twice as bad at Washington in 2021, missed 6 months, then came back and won 23 straight matches.

but now he’s done forever? I’m not convinced he’s even done for this clay season let alone for the rest of the year.

Washington was 9 months ago. That's 9 months older now and 9 months more wear and tear and RG is less than 2 weeks ago. If Rafa cannot play RG I don't think he will play again. I get the feeling he is at the brink of being done with injuries and all the recovery he has to do its not enjoyable and he keeps saying he will only play as long as he enjoys it.

 

[StrongRule]

I was probably the only person on this forum who said that Rafa was second favorite for AO 22 while he was out injured. And then when Djoko was deported I kept saying Nadal would win it.

I guess I was wrong then too?
Edit: quoted for proof, typed this on January 5th

As it looks like, you hype Nadal all the time, so that was a regular prediction from you. I have no idea how he won AO, but it looks like it was one last good run before retirement.

 

[Hitman]

The guy is like Freddy, Jason and Myers all rolled into one...just when you think it's safe to look under your bed....

 

[Gt86]

How many times have we been down this road? He looked done in 2015 and 2016, and then 2017 happened. He looked done in 2020 and then a performance of a lifetime in the RG final. He looked done last year and then waltzed into AO 22 and won it while not playing at all for 6 months. This cat has 9 lives. The only way I will believe it's over is when he says he's retiring.

He is soon to be 36!!

 

[Jokervich]

So explain this then. He looked twice as bad at Washington in 2021, missed 6 months, then came back and won 23 straight matches.

but now he’s done forever? I’m not convinced he’s even done for this clay season let alone for the rest of the year.

He rode his luck massively in many of those matches. I count at least 3 matches, maybe more, during that stretch of consecutive matches that he should have lost if his opponents didn't epicly choke. Then Djokovic did not play AO and Alcaraz had not made his breakthrough yet.

 

[Gt86]

You could get whiplash with how quickly the narratives shift here and how certain posters seem to disappear and reappear with those changes

May I ask why you have such confidence Rafa will play RG let alone even be a contender after tonight? Last time this happened he was out for 9 months so I'm struggling to see any optimism moving forward.

 

[NoleFam]

He is soon to be 36!!

And he just won AO along with multiple other hardcourt titles. Are we just supposed to forget that?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Saying Rafa is done be like....

 

[Gt86]

He rode his luck massively in many of those matches. I count at least 3 matches, maybe more, during that stretch of consecutive matches that he should have lost if his opponents didn't epicly choke. Then Djokovic did not play AO and Alcaraz had not made his breakthrough yet.

This is true but then Djokovic is also benefiting from players choking. Federer never really had this luxury. The level of choking nowadays in the men's game among the under 30s is at Novotna standards across the board.

 

[StrongRule]

And he just won AO along with multiple other hardcourt titles. Are we just supposed to forget that?

So did Federer in 2018. How was the rest of the year for him?

 

[Gt86]

And he just won AO along with multiple other hardcourt titles. Are we just supposed to forget that?

Well to an extent yes as the AO was almost 6 months ago now. So he is 6 months older with that bit more wear and tear.

 

[weakera]

May I ask why you have such confidence Rafa will play RG let alone even be a contender after tonight? Last time this happened he was out for 9 months so I'm struggling to see any optimism moving forward.

When did I say I was confident about anything? If Rafa's healthy, I know what he can do, and if not, it wasn't meant to be and life goes on. Just be with calm, like Rafa himself

 

[NoleFam]

Saying Rafa is done be like....

 

[Kralingen]

As it looks like, you hype Nadal all the time, so that was a regular prediction from you. I have no idea how he won AO, but it looks like it was one last good run before retirement.

He rode his luck massively in many of those matches. I count at least 3 matches, maybe more, during that stretch of consecutive matches that he should have lost if his opponents didn't epicly choke. Then Djokovic did not play AO and Alcaraz had not made his breakthrough yet.

All I’m saying is holy ****, it doesn’t have to be black and white where either Rafa wins RG not dropping a set or Rafa is done forever. He has come back from injury literally 30+ times in his career. He has a special one of a kind talent, his FH is the most unique shot in tennis, and he can outfox and find points at important times even when being outplayed. I don’t care if he’s in awful form, against this field it doesn’t matter; he’s won multiple majors playing poorly for his standards. Above all else he has risen from the ashes so many times.

I wish you guys would respect these great players a bit more.

 

[NoleFam]

Well to an extent yes as the AO was almost 6 months ago now. So he is 6 months older with that bit more wear and tear.

 

[Gt86]

When did I say I was confident about anything? If Rafa's healthy, I know what he can do, and if not, it wasn't meant to be and life goes on. Just be with calm, like Rafa himself

I am calm. I am content after Melbourne hence why I think he should retire. All I do not want to see is Rafa limping around Chatrier. That's the only thing worrying me now.
My tip for FO since IW has been Alcaraz. So nothing changes as to who I think is favourite. Djokovic a close 2nd although I'm still dubious over his stamina. 3rd has to be Tsitsipas as much as I dislike the guy. Ruud I think is a guy to avoid

 

[NoleFam]

So did Federer in 2018. How was the rest of the year for him?

And it still wasn't over for him. He had one hand on the 2019 Wimbledon trophy.

 

[Gt86]

All I’m saying is holy ****, it doesn’t have to be black and white where either Rafa wins RG not dropping a set or Rafa is done forever. He has come back from injury literally 30+ times in his career. He has a special one of a kind talent, his FH is the most unique shot in tennis, and he can outfox and find points at important times even when being outplayed. I don’t care if he’s in awful form, against this field it doesn’t matter; he’s won multiple majors playing poorly for his standards. Above all else he has risen from the ashes so many times.

I wish you guys would respect these great players a bit more.

Where is the disrespect though? Last time this happened he was out for 9 months. I just am struggling to see how he recovers in less than 2 weeks if last time it was 9 months

 

[MeatTornado]

So did Federer in 2018. How was the rest of the year for him?

Things can come to a close unexpectedly at any time, yes. This has happened to numerous players.

But a year and a half after that AO he still played at an undeniable slam winning level (being 1 point short not withstanding). So Fed probably isn't the best example to use when writing someone off.

 

[Kralingen]

You guys need to start thinking of it from the opposite way. It’s a two man game, the sport of tennis. Who do you really, truly in your heart of hearts trust to actually put Nadal to the sword, in Bo5? Think about it. Shapo and Medvedev are completely out. Zverev lol. Tsitsipas and Thiem have done it but both have some epic chokes in their repertoire at the Slam level. Anyone else like Sinner, Ruud, Rublev etc. is a foolish prediction

Alcaraz and Djokovic are the only players I think can beat a somewhat decent Rafa at Roland Garros. Simple as that.

 

[TripleATeam]

Djokovic at 2018 AO: No HC titles, plenty of withdrawals, poor showings outside his withdrawals.

6 months later he was tearing up grass season and late HC. Nadal will return. You don't just shake off 17 years of excellence on a surface with a single bad season. He'll be a RG contender until he retires.

 

[weakera]

Things can come to a close unexpectedly at any time, yes. This has happened to numerous players.

But a year and a half after that AO he still played at an undeniable slam winning level (being 1 point short not withstanding). So Fed probably isn't the best example to use when writing someone off.

Fed was 1 point short? When was this?

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

Where is the disrespect though? Last time this happened he was out for 9 months. I just am struggling to see how he recovers in less than 2 weeks if last time it was 9 months

Maybe the issue isn't as serious as it was then. After all he is just coming back from a layoff. Also I think his days of playing well on back to back days are over. It was evident in IW as well where he struggled in many matches even though he made the finals. RG with a day off is a different ball game.

That said I would now say Alcaraz is the favorite for FO followed by Nadal/Novak with roughly equal chance. The key factor will be the draw.

 

[weakera]

I am calm. I am content after Melbourne hence why I think he should retire. All I do not want to see is Rafa limping around Chatrier. That's the only thing worrying me now.
My tip for FO since IW has been Alcaraz. So nothing changes as to who I think is favourite. Djokovic a close 2nd although I'm still dubious over his stamina. 3rd has to be Tsitsipas as much as I dislike the guy. Ruud I think is a guy to avoid

Whatever happens happens. Rafa is the kind of guy to go down swinging anyway. Not because he feels like he found a good storybook moment.

 

[Deleted member 629564]

This is a bit awkward. Let's swap a cause and a consequence.

FALSE:
Nadal's career on clay is realistically over if he doesn't win RG this year, or at least have a very strong showing

TRUE:
He doesn't win RG this year, or at least have a very strong showing, because his career on clay realistically over.

On the other hand...
TRUE:
Nadal's career on clay is NOT realistically over if he wins RG this year, or have a very strong showing.


Am I right?

 

[Jokervich]

This is a bit awkward. Let's swap a cause and a consequence.

FALSE:
Nadal's career on clay is realistically over if he doesn't win RG this year, or at least have a very strong showing

TRUE:
He doesn't win RG this year, or at least have a very strong showing, because his career on clay realistically over.

On the other hand...
TRUE:
Nadal's career on clay is NOT realistically over if he wins RG this year, or have a very strong showing.


Am I right?

Yeah they are one and the same. I suppose it's whether you judge his clay career to be over now, after he loses RG or you don't believe his clay career is over whatever happens at RG. He did look very dejected after the Rome performance, like gt said.

 

[StrongRule]

You guys need to start thinking of it from the opposite way. It’s a two man game, the sport of tennis. Who do you really, truly in your heart of hearts trust to actually put Nadal to the sword, in Bo5? Think about it. Shapo and Medvedev are completely out. Zverev lol. Tsitsipas and Thiem have done it but both have some epic chokes in their repertoire at the Slam level. Anyone else like Sinner, Ruud, Rublev etc. is a foolish prediction

Alcaraz and Djokovic are the only players I think can beat a somewhat decent Rafa at Roland Garros. Simple as that.

So you think Shapovalov would not be able to win one more set today? Based on the comments Nadal was physically dead. Shapovalov would have easily won another 6-2 set to close it out. Zverev would do it even easier. He has easily won 3 of their last 4 matches, and that's against a better Nadal.

Again, it's amazing how you easily bring Djokovic down time after time, even though his "decline" at best case lasts for 2 tournaments, and it's always small tournaments. There was not even one slam recently in which he played bad. Nadal on the other hand has already lost last year in DO.

 

[MeatTornado]

Fed was 1 point short? When was this?

It's not a story the Jedi would tell you.

 

[Mivic]

All I’m saying is holy ****, it doesn’t have to be black and white where either Rafa wins RG not dropping a set or Rafa is done forever. He has come back from injury literally 30+ times in his career. He has a special one of a kind talent, his FH is the most unique shot in tennis, and he can outfox and find points at important times even when being outplayed. I don’t care if he’s in awful form, against this field it doesn’t matter; he’s won multiple majors playing poorly for his standards. Above all else he has risen from the ashes so many times.

I wish you guys would respect these great players a bit more.

Bro come on. You're the dude that claimed Djokovic is more likely than not to remain at 20 slams after a tough three set loss to a mainstay top 10 guy in Rublev after back to back 3 hour matches on consecutive days after 6 months off court, yet apparently its insulting to claim that an injury prone and heavily declined 36 year old with chronic foot issues who is going to be holding zero CC titles for the first time since 2004 on Monday is on borrowed time? If anything what OP is saying is a lot more reasonable than some of the reactionary takes you've been coming out with regarding Djokovic recently. I'm not saying I disagree with what you're saying necessarily but at least be consistent with your views. Djokovic looks much the physically fresher of the two at the moment and is certainly closer to prime level from an athletic standpoint.

 

[LetWinner]

Did you just say he usually struggles at MC? He’s won it 11 times!

 

[StrongRule]

And it still wasn't over for him. He had one hand on the 2019 Wimbledon trophy.

Things can come to a close unexpectedly at any time, yes. This has happened to numerous players.

But a year and a half after that AO he still played at an undeniable slam winning level (being 1 point short not withstanding). So Fed probably isn't the best example to use when writing someone off.

Federer has a big serve which partly makes up for the declined physical form. Nadal doesn't have that, so he has to grind, and that is impossible to do at his age in BO5. Federer had a big advantage over him, and still hasn't won a slam since AO 2018.

 

[Bubcay]

How many times have we been down this road? He looked done in 2015 and 2016, and then 2017 happened. He looked done in 2020 and then a performance of a lifetime in the RG final. He looked done last year and then waltzed into AO 22 and won it while not playing at all for 6 months. This cat has 9 lives. The only way I will believe it's over is when he says he's retiring.

This ^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[ND-13]

Let us hope Alcaraz wins it . We have had enough of the big 3

 

[GabeT]

You could get whiplash with how quickly the narratives shift here and how certain posters seem to disappear and reappear with those changes

this is what we do

this is who we are

 

[wangs78]

Nadal is one serious injury away from being done, and it could certainly be this foot issue he has even if he refuses to call it an "injury". Just because he's still competitive with the young guys doesn't mean that physically he's fine. It could mean that he's hanging on physically and relying on experience and mental strength to triumph against these hapless Nexgen. If Alcaraz is the real thing, I think he will not just win for himself but also inject a big dose of confidence into the likes of Tsitsipas, Zverev, Shapo, FAA and others. Rafa and Novak have been holding back a dam that is about to burst. Together with Roger until 2020, it was amazing how long they were able to hold it.