Is Nadal's career on clay realistically over if he doesn't win RG this year, or at least have a very strong showing?

[Kralingen]

Bro come on. You're the dude that claimed Djokovic is likely to remain at 20 slams after a loss to a top 10 guy in Rublev after back to back 3 hour matches on consecutive days after 6 months off court, yet apparently its insulting to claim that an injury prone 36 year old with chronic foot issues who is going to be holding zero CC titles for the first time since 2004 on Monday is on borrowed time? If anything what OP is saying is a lot more reasonable than some of the reactionary takes you've been coming out with regarding Djokovic. I'm not saying I disagree with what you're saying necessarily but at least be consistent with your views. Djokovic looks the much physically fresher of the two at the moment.

Djokovic showed me something at Madrid that made me eat my words, unfortunately I was serving a ban lol. You’d laugh if you heard what it was for. Anyways:

I honestly thought he was done mentally after the AO stuff, and unlike Nadal I had not seen him tired and collapse physically like in Belgrade in a long time. There’s a much longer repertoire of coming back from the dead injury/fitness wise for Rafa than there is for Djokovic. It isn’t just that, I also think Raf has advantages against the field with his variety and unique style of play that just allow him to pull the rabbit out of the hat even when being outplayed. I will be nicer to Novak though. He has responded like a true champion and I now feel confident that he will be a strong contender for RG.

 

[Rosstour]

No, but in yellow

 

[MichaelNadal]

 

[Gt86]

Whatever happens happens. Rafa is the kind of guy to go down swinging anyway. Not because he feels like he found a good storybook moment.

Yes I agree with you. Personally I like the story book moment.

 

[Gt86]

Maybe the issue isn't as serious as it was then. After all he is just coming back from a layoff. Also I think his days of playing well on back to back days are over. It was evident in IW as well where he struggled in many matches even though he made the finals. RG with a day off is a different ball game.

That said I would now say Alcaraz is the favorite for FO followed by Nadal/Novak with roughly equal chance. The key factor will be the draw.

Alcaraz to me seems almost odds on favourite. He has no fear. He believes he can win. For him the dayboff in between will be an absolute god send as it allows him a mental reset. The decision to skip Rome was a master stroke as well

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Nadal hasn't won any clay titles so far this year and in the events he has played, he's barely made it very far through the draw. Yes he was injured for part of it, but lets face it, would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in, and Barcelona with Alcaraz in the draw? Highly doubtful.

Then you look at last year, he was humiliated by Djokovic at RG. This year it looks unlikely he wins the tournament, with Djokovic and Alcaraz in very strong form. Heck even Tsitsipas or Zverev could probably beat him or take him to 5 sets with the form he's showing.

With Nadal declining and injuries getting worse each year, Djokovic having the edge over Nadal on clay these days, and Alcaraz improving every year, can Nadal realistically do anything on clay anymore? Will his clay career realistically be over if he doesn't win RG or have a very strong showing there? Poll included.

Nadal has won 12 Monte Carlo masters shields, gentleman.
Talk about performing poorly

 

[JaxTeller]

You guys never learn lmao... I remember how everyone said Nadal is washed after his loss to harris,and his slam winning days are over...

 

[TheNachoMan]

The annual “let’s write Nadal off for RG because we never learn our damn lesson“ challenge has begun.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

I think it was over last year. Hes too injury prone, slowed, inconsistent at top level from the baseline to be a top factor on clay any longer. I supposed he get one more slam off clay with some all court play and mixing it up after a long break for his foot to rest though. Clay is too physically demanding. Thats not a preferred surface when you're playing on one foot and a nub

 

[NeutralFan]

BO5 matches on Chatrier with a day off between......
As bad as things look r.n if he’s still fit enough to play 5.5 hour GS finals, im not writing him off

I am afraid but his play style doesn't translate that well on clay these days, especially his super defensive approach on bps.

 

[Crisstti]

Where is the disrespect though? Last time this happened he was out for 9 months. I just am struggling to see how he recovers in less than 2 weeks if last time it was 9 months

The injury flare up doesn't need to be equally bad every time though.

 

[Deleted member 762343]

Nadal will only become a non-factor at RG when he retires.

Even then, he could still win RG.

 

[Crisstti]

Maybe the issue isn't as serious as it was then. After all he is just coming back from a layoff. Also I think his days of playing well on back to back days are over. It was evident in IW as well where he struggled in many matches even though he made the finals. RG with a day off is a different ball game.

That said I would now say Alcaraz is the favorite for FO followed by Nadal/Novak with roughly equal chance. The key factor will be the draw.

The key factor will be Rafa's health.

 

[NeutralFan]

The key factor will be Rafa's health.

Plus his mental strength and how agressive he's on bps. Yesterday ,he was super defensive on bps and should have won in straights.

 

[Jokervich]

The annual “let’s write Nadal off for RG because we never learn our damn lesson“ challenge has begun.

This one definitely feels real though. This is the first time I've written off Nadal for RG because I actually believe this is it. I've seen enough already of him + other players to believe he's not winning it this year.

 

[Karma Tennis]

First time in a very long time that I think Rafa has a better chance of winning the Wimbledon Title than he does the Roland Garros one.

Now, I cannot imagine Rafa will play at Roland Garros unless he thinks he has a very high chance of winning it. He will obviously enter the tournament and wait for the Draw to be released. At that point he will make the decision to play depending on 1/His physical health 2/Players on his side of the draw.

Where it gets really interesting is if he decides to pull out of RG. Would he then play at Wimbledon? Or would he pass on the grass and focus on the US Open? Or would he, could he, play both Wimbledon and the USO?

Probably depends on how much longer he sees himself playing the Tour. If he is planning to play on in 2023, then it might make a lot of sense for him to sit out RG this year.

If he plays RG this year regardless, I reckon he is probably seriously thinking about hanging up the racquets in the very near future.

One thing to note, his family (father, mother, sister, and his wife) have been attending a lot of his tournaments this season to watch him play. I wonder if there is any hidden message in that?

 

[Karma Tennis]

Plus his mental strength and how agressive he's on bps. Yesterday ,he was super defensive on bps and should have won in straights.

While I believe that tennis is primarily a mental sport, all the mental prowess in the world cannot overcome any serious and on-going physical pain emanating from a major limb of the human body. Especially one that is required in order to perform certain activities - in the case of tennis, chasing a tennis ball.

 

[Bender]

If his foot keeps acting up, yes

 

[NeutralFan]

While I believe that tennis is primarily a mental sport, all the mental prowess in the world cannot overcome any serious and on-going physical pain emanating from a major limb of the human body. Especially one that is required in order to perform certain activities - in the case of tennis, chasing a tennis ball.

Well him not winning one of many bps in first two games of second set has nothing to do with his body failing him. These days he's super defensive on bps and also his game doesn't translate well on clay these days. Yes, his body would have impacted the result once second set was gone but it was a choke job.

 

[Antonio Puente]

All I’m saying is holy ****, it doesn’t have to be black and white where either Rafa wins RG not dropping a set or Rafa is done forever

Today he's finished. If in several weeks time he wins RG, people will be talking CYGS. That's TTW.

 

[Karma Tennis]

These days he's super defensive on bps and also his game doesn't translate well on clay these days.

It has to be that way because he is up against much tougher competition now than he was when he was a lot younger.

The standard and quality of the overall competition in the past few years is significantly greater than it was in the first 15 years of this century.

(Of course, Rafa's age doesn't help him ... but it's the level of competition that is the main enemy, always is!)

 

[Mustard]

We shall see, but nothing can last forever.

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

It has to be that way because he is up against much tougher competition now than he was when he was a lot younger.

The standard and quality of the overall competition in the past few years is significantly greater than it was in the first 15 years of this century.

(Of course, Rafa's age doesn't help him ... but it's the level of competition that is the main enemy, always is!)

When did you start watching tennis? Are you saying the current field is better than peak Fed, Peak Novak, Peak Murray, Peak Nadal? I think the field was the toughest between 2008-14 with the Big 4 and other great players like Stan, ferrer, cilic, del Porto etc..

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

The key factor will be Rafa's health.

Ofcourse.. but even a healthy Rafa will need a bit of luck in the draw I believe. Let's say he is drawn such that he has to play Novak in QF, Tsitsipas in SF and Alcaraz in F. Despite being a big fan of Rafa, I doubt his current version will be able to pull off back to back performances required to win FO in such a scenario.

We need a healthy Rafa and a bit of luck in the draw. Considering how unlucky he has been with regards to the draw over the years, I think it is well deserved.

 

[Rosstour]

I think it was over last year. Hes too injury prone, slowed, inconsistent at top level from the baseline to be a top factor on clay any longer. I supposed he get one more slam off clay with some all court play and mixing it up after a long break for his foot to rest though. Clay is too physically demanding. Thats not a preferred surface when you're playing on one foot and a nub

He's not playing on one foot and a nub

He's not playing with a shattered rib or a torn testicle or anything else. This is a psychological tactic that any seasoned tennis observer should see through at this point.

He does it to keep expectations low, and reverence high.

 

[Karma Tennis]

When did you start watching tennis? Are you saying the current field is better than peak Fed, Peak Novak, Peak Murray, Peak Nadal? I think the field was the toughest between 2008-14 with the Big 4 and other great players like Stan, ferrer, cilic, del Porto etc..

I've been watching tennis for a little while.

There was a fellow called Laver that used to come and play at a local club called Kooyong Tennis Club. He won a few matches there.

I think you have bought into the hype that just because there were two or three players dominating the sport for a decent period of time, that that makes for a competive era.

Actually, it is the reverse. Anytime one or two players dominate the sport, it is actually a less competitive era.

Competitive Era means several players (for me, at least a dozen) have an equal chance of winning at least a few Major Titles over the course of a decade.

The most competive era I witnessed in Pro. Tennis in the men's game were the years between 1976 and 1989. No other era in my lifetime as come close to that one.

Fortunately, it appears tennis is heading towards another era like that now that the Big 3 are in decline.

 

[Rosstour]

Emma Raducanu was barely moving out there, retired from her match, and is flying home to England to (allegedly) find out what's wrong with her back. And yet...there is healthy skepticism about her injury. 'Maybe it's between the ears,' we whisper scornfully.

Where is the skepticism now? Rafa has been doing this for years.

If he gets wiped out at the French by Garin or Schwarzy, ok maybe there is an issue. But until then...c'mon. We've seen this movie before.

 

[King No1e]

Nadal hasn't won any clay titles so far this year and in the events he has played, he's barely made it very far through the draw. Yes he was injured for part of it, but lets face it, would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in, and Barcelona with Alcaraz in the draw? Highly doubtful.

Then you look at last year, he was humiliated by Djokovic at RG. This year it looks unlikely he wins the tournament, with Djokovic and Alcaraz in very strong form. Heck even Tsitsipas or Zverev could probably beat him or take him to 5 sets with the form he's showing.

With Nadal declining and injuries getting worse each year, Djokovic having the edge over Nadal on clay these days, and Alcaraz improving every year, can Nadal realistically do anything on clay anymore? Will his clay career realistically be over if he doesn't win RG or have a very strong showing there? Poll included.

 

[Newballsplease872]

You guys never learn lmao... I remember how everyone said Nadal is washed after his loss to harris,and his slam winning days are over...

If not for the rigging by Australian authorities at AO 22 it was over

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

You could tell by last year it was over. He was in pain and stamina was completely shot on clay. Dude couldn't even move by the 4th set. (Even if he somehow got through Djoker, he would have gotten SMOKED In the finals by Tstsi) . People saying "Nadal will prove again his clay greatness". No. Before he wasn't 36 years old. He should have skipped the clay season entirely and hit the grass courts a few weeks after Australia. He would be priming to go for a Wimbledon title right now. I hope he calls it a clay career, call it a day and focus on getting 2 more non clay slams by end of 2023. Thats his only shot and I think its do-able with very light scheduling. But now its up in the air as keeps aggravating that foot with these clay tournaments and back to back matches. His team should have known that. Fed was smart in skipping clay season towards the end. Rafa should have known to do this too.

There is zero chance he makes it through the DJokovic, Zverev, Tstipas,Alcarez wall at the French. Rafa's clay days are over. Which is completely normal for his age and mileage. Play on the "older folk" surface grass and hards where you actually can use your experience/brains to have a shot winning

 

[Karma Tennis]

If not for the rigging by Australian authorities at AO 22 it was over

If you seriously think the Australian Government has any interest in the outcome of a tennis tournament then I have some land you might be interested in purchasing.

It's located at 489 Glenferrie Rd, Kooyong, Melbourne, VIC. Australia 3144

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

I've been watching tennis for a little while.

There was a fellow called Laver that used to come and play at a local club called Kooyong Tennis Club. He won a few matches there.

I think you have bought into the hype that just because there were two or three players dominating the sport for a decent period of time, that that makes for a competive era.

Actually, it is the reverse. Anytime one or two players dominate the sport, it is actually a less competitive era.

Competitive Era means several players (for me, at least a dozen) have an equal chance of winning at least a few Major Titles over the course of a decade.

The most competive era I witnessed in Pro. Tennis in the men's game were the years between 1976 and 1989. No other era in my lifetime as come close to that one.

Fortunately, it appears tennis is heading towards another era like that now that the Big 3 are in decline.

Great to know you are a long term tennis fan and I respect your views. I don't have any opinion on pre-2003 era and maybe you are right about 1976-1989 being the most competitive period.

Though the current field is just not that great I believe. Yes they are talented but they are also chokers. Tsitsipas, zverev, Med etc.. just lack the killer instinct I was used to seeing in several players in earlier years. They constantly throw matches after being in a dominant position.

Hopefully Alcaraz, FAA, Korda etc.. will do better.

 

[Newballsplease872]

If you seriously think the Australian Government has any interest in the outcome of a tennis tournament then I have some land you might be interested in purchasing.

It's located at 489 Glenferrie Rd, Kooyong, Melbourne, VIC. Australia 3144

They did or not it's irrelevant

He won an asterisked title just like 1973 Wimbledon.

No1e would've smoked him

 

[NeutralFan]

All I’m saying is holy ****, it doesn’t have to be Balck and white where either Rafa wins RG not dropping a set or Rafa is done forever. He has come back from injury literally 30+ times in his career. He has a special one of a kind talent, his FH is the most unique shot in tennis, and he can outfox and find points at important times even when being outplayed. I don’t care if he’s in awful form, against this field it doesn’t matter; he’s won multiple majors playing poorly for his standards. Above all else he has risen from the ashes so many times.

I wish you guys would respect these great players a bit more.

Man before serving ban you were awarding Rafa CYGS now saying it doesnt have to be black and white

 

[ffw2]

unfortunately I was serving a ban

Welcome back?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Emma Raducanu was barely moving out there, retired from her match, and is flying home to England to (allegedly) find out what's wrong with her back. And yet...there is healthy skepticism about her injury. 'Maybe it's between the ears,' we whisper scornfully.

Where is the skepticism now? Rafa has been doing this for years.

If he gets wiped out at the French by Garin or Schwarzy, ok maybe there is an issue. But until then...c'mon. We've seen this movie before.

You are so burned lol

 

[Gt86]

The injury flare up doesn't need to be equally bad every time though.

I cannot see any prospect of him recovering for RG. That foot bothered him in IW as well. Badly. He got to the final somehow but he never looked right and it clearly is way worse now

 

[Zardoz7/12]

It's not over until it's over with Nadal, he came back from an injury lay off to win the Australian Open, I mean counting him out is a little kneejerk.

Nadal should play in Geneva before the French Open, more match practice, he looks like what we expected him to look like in January.

 

[Rosstour]

You are so burned lol

Burned by what exactly? Watching my favorite non-Fed player paste one of my least favorites?

I'm definitely pissed that Shapo was given no credit for the win by Rafa or the media or the ATP. He deserves better after beating the greatest player of all time, no?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Burned by what exactly? Watching my favorite non-Fed player paste one of my least favorites?

I'm definitely pissed that Shapo was given no credit for the win by Rafa or the media or the ATP. He deserves better after beating the greatest player of all time, no?

Yes he deserves better as Nadal was limping, crying and not moving for balls on court

 

[vex]

There’s like zero pressure on Rafa to win this thing. He has the slam lead. Djokovic isn’t looking like a world beater. And Alcaraz could slam the door shut soon.

 

[NeutralFan]

There’s like zero pressure on Rafa to win this thing. He has the slam lead. Djokovic isn’t looking like a world beater. And Alcaraz could slam the door shut soon.

A lot will depend on draw, if it's smooth sailing to semi he can smell his chances.

 

[AIMCHUTY]

There’s like zero pressure on Rafa to win this thing. He has the slam lead. Djokovic isn’t looking like a world beater. And Alcaraz could slam the door shut soon.

Alcaraz ain't beating Novak on Hc or Grass surface in bo5 bro

 

[Karma Tennis]

Great to know you are a long term tennis fan and I respect your views.

Ditto and Cheers

Though the current field is just not that great I believe.

Oh I agree with you 100% in terms of their relative tennis playing prowess. But I still believe the current era is very competitive. There are a lot of players that have a reasonable chance of winning Tour Titles when most of the players are playing.

Many people equate the competitiveness of an Era with how skilled the best players are. I don't. I equate the competitiveness of an era with many players having a decent chance of winning Tour Titles over the course of several years.

Unless Alcaraz Garfia stuns us all, I think we are entering a much more competitve era over the next decade, compared to the one we are coming out of where the lions share of Major and Masters Titles have been won by a relative few players.

No1e would've smoked him

Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda. Wonderful expression. But the record books show the final result.

Players can only play who they can play. Every win is worthy in my books.

I mean Nole should have won the 2020 US Open? Yes? I guess you want an asterisk next to Thiem's name as well? Huh?

Heck, why don't we just put an asterisk next to every winner of a Final that Novak didn't play in in the last 5 years. LOL.

Alcaraz ain't beating Novak on Hc or Grass surface in bo5

He might if Novak has played two tough 5 Setters in the 4 days beforehand.

Or if Novak has a sore elbow.

Or if Novak accidently hits a Linesperson with an errant tennis ball or racquet.

Or if Novak withdraws because he catches COVID-19.

 

[Rafaforehand74]

"would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in,"

This made me laugh - just the 11 titles in an event he does poorly in.

Actually, to be fair, in recent times, there is some sense to this comment.

 

[helterskelter]

Nadal hasn't won any clay titles so far this year and in the events he has played, he's barely made it very far through the draw. Yes he was injured for part of it, but lets face it, would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in, and Barcelona with Alcaraz in the draw? Highly doubtful.

I sincerely hope that this is the first (and last) time that anyone will ever describe an 11-time champion as generally doing poorly in an event.

 

[helterskelter]

"would he have won MC, the first clay event of the season which he generally does poorly in,"

This made me laugh - just the 11 titles in an event he does poorly in.

Actually, to be fair, in recent times, there is some sense to this comment.

Two matches is hardly a general trend.

 

[Sport]

Nadal is done.

 

[weakera]

Nadal is done.

If that's true, does he realize it?

 

[Biotic]

Never write off a limping hyena.