Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
I have analysed over the last years a lot of matches and players with a focus on the very best. When I was shifting through the data something strange happened time and time again. The top 50 player closest to Novak seems to be right now Sinner.
First tactics, here I have sorted after Forehand Win percentage, but look at the inside out, the backhand, the down the line winners. To make things clearer I cut out the six guys in the middle. Very similar trends with two key differences. Jannik is overall considerably more aggressive as a returner and in the rallies from the baseline while Novak serves and volley a lot more these days.
Secondly the serve, here I sorted according to the second serve win percentage. Look also at the ace, first in, hold percentage and point lengths. Nole lands considerably more first serves. While Stefanos has similar, even better outcomes with his first than Novak he is far further away with his second.
Thirdly ranking the return points won. Medvedev is there closest and Djokovic is penalised by his opponents quality. Alcaraz has played more clay than the other three so his return numbers get lifted while his (first) serve numbers get pushed down. But looking at the overall picture Jannik is closest in versus Ace, double fault, first, second and break percentage plus points won per return game.
Obviously I'm not saying that Sinner is the new elder Djokovic but it is surprising how tied they are tactically, as serves and returners.
First tactics, here I have sorted after Forehand Win percentage, but look at the inside out, the backhand, the down the line winners. To make things clearer I cut out the six guys in the middle. Very similar trends with two key differences. Jannik is overall considerably more aggressive as a returner and in the rallies from the baseline while Novak serves and volley a lot more these days.
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Secondly the serve, here I sorted according to the second serve win percentage. Look also at the ace, first in, hold percentage and point lengths. Nole lands considerably more first serves. While Stefanos has similar, even better outcomes with his first than Novak he is far further away with his second.
| Rk | Player | M W% | SPW | SPW-InP | Aces | Ace% | DF% | DF/2s | 1stIn | 1st% | 2nd% | 2%-InP | Hld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic [SRB] | 84.2% | 69.4% | 68.9% | 398 | 8.5% | 3.1% | 8.6% | 63.9% | 76.1% | 57.4% | 62.8% | 87.6% |
| 4 | Jannik Sinner [ITA] | 82.7% | 68.2% | 67.0% | 471 | 8.3% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 59.5% | 76.1% | 56.5% | 60.0% | 88.0% |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] | 84.4% | 66.8% | 66.9% | 317 | 5.4% | 2.9% | 8.4% | 65.7% | 72.2% | 56.3% | 61.5% | 85.4% |
| 7 | Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE] | 62.1% | 69.8% | 68.8% | 440 | 9.0% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 63.7% | 78.6% | 54.5% | 58.8% | 88.5% |
| 12 | Taylor Fritz [USA] | 69.0% | 68.4% | 66.4% | 638 | 11.8% | 2.9% | 7.2% | 59.6% | 78.1% | 54.1% | 58.3% | 86.0% |
| 8 | Holger Rune [DEN] | 66.2% | 65.6% | 66.2% | 370 | 7.0% | 4.5% | 12.0% | 62.1% | 72.7% | 53.9% | 61.2% | 83.9% |
Thirdly ranking the return points won. Medvedev is there closest and Djokovic is penalised by his opponents quality. Alcaraz has played more clay than the other three so his return numbers get lifted while his (first) serve numbers get pushed down. But looking at the overall picture Jannik is closest in versus Ace, double fault, first, second and break percentage plus points won per return game.
| Rk | Player | RPW | RPW-InP | vAce% | vDF% | v1st% | v2nd% | Brk% | Pts/RG | PtsW/RG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] | 42.0% | 41.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 34.9% | 53.8% | 30.9% | 6.8 | 2.9 |
| 3 | Daniil Medvedev [RUS] | 40.7% | 40.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 32.9% | 54.0% | 29.9% | 6.5 | 2.6 |
| 1 | Novak Djokovic [SRB] | 40.6% | 42.4% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 32.3% | 54.9% | 27.9% | 6.8 | 2.7 |
| 4 | Jannik Sinner [ITA] | 40.4% | 41.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 32.1% | 54.0% | 28.2% | 6.7 | 2.7 |
Obviously I'm not saying that Sinner is the new elder Djokovic but it is surprising how tied they are tactically, as serves and returners.
