Is striking the ball early, close to the baseline useless on clay against Rafael Nadal?

[Ganstaz003]

This tactic is said to be a solution to Rafael Nadal's top spin forehands. It helps neutralize this tactic of Nadal. Especially on the backhand side and even more specifically against one handed backhands. Players like Davydenko and Djokovic have shown to be able to neutralize this tactic of Nadal better than anybody else, but mainly on hard courts. Thus, they've managed to get the better of him more than any other player on tour in the most consistent basis.

However, how useful is this tactic on clay? Does it still work or is it mostly useless?

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Taking the ball early on clay is problematic.

 

[Deleted member 23235]

tough to take ball early on clay due to irregular bounces.

but against rafa, that might be a better option (for most) than retreating 10ft and suffering a slow death.

 

[jois]

Nice try, Delpo.

 

[smalahove]

Nadal is hard to play against because of one simple metric:

More than three out of four break points in our sport occur in the AD COURT. (Craig O’Shannessy)

This is a huge advantage for lefties, regardless of whom they're meeting, as they're able to serve out wide and open up the court on break points.

 

[TennisATP]

Nadal is hard to play against because of one simple metric:

More than three out of four break points in our sport occur in the AD COURT. (Craig O’Shannessy)

This is a huge advantage for lefties, regardless of whom they're meeting, as they're able to serve out wide and open up the court on break points.

In other words, Uncle Toni is a genius.

But that doesn't explain why tons of lefties never win slams and that even most GOATs are right handed. So please let's not pretend that Rafa is difficult mainly because he's a lefty, tons of lefties are out there and they always lose.

 

[VolleyHelena]

In other words, Uncle Toni is a genius.

But that doesn't explain why tons of lefties never win slams and that even most GOATs are right handed.

 

[Tennisanity]

Nadal is hard to play against because of one simple metric:

More than three out of four break points in our sport occur in the AD COURT. (Craig O’Shannessy)

This is a huge advantage for lefties, regardless of whom they're meeting, as they're able to serve out wide and open up the court on break points.

But surely this is balanced by the ability to get to a break point. Righties must have it easier there since they serve more strongly in the deuce court.

 

[smalahove]

In other words, Uncle Toni is a genius.

But that doesn't explain why tons of lefties never win slams and that even most GOATs are right handed. So please let's not pretend that Rafa is difficult mainly because he's a lefty, tons of lefties are out there and they always lose.

Yes, it does, actually. All the other lefties currently playing are nowhere near Rafas skill level, so there's no insight to be gained in making such a comparison.

What this metric should tell you, is that if Novak or Murray or Fed could magically have been granted the possibility to change from righty to lefty, it would have given them a clear advantage. Which of course, is not possible.

What is possible though, is to change the rules and the starting side, i.e. to start from the (old) ad side. Then again, this metric should tell you the advantage would be in favor of right handers, as the (old) deuce side would be the (new) ad side.

 

[TennisATP]

Yes, it does, actually. All the other lefties currently playing are nowhere near Rafas skill level, so there's no insight to be gained in making such a comparison.

What this metric should tell you, is that if Novak or Murray or Fed could magically have been granted the possibility to change from righty to lefty, it would have given them a clear advantage. Which of course, is not possible.

What is possible though, is to change the rules and the starting side, i.e. to start from the (old) ad side. Then again, this metric should tell you the advantage would be in favor of right handers, as the (old) deuce side would be the (new) ad side.

This has nothing to do with clay where the serve is even less important.

 

[smalahove]

But surely this is balanced by the ability to get to a break point. Righties must have it easier there since they serve more strongly in the deuce court.

77% of all break points played on the ad side, regardless if you're a right or lefty, serving or receiving.

(Which means it is not balanced by the ability to get to a BP)

 

[Daniel Johnson]

It's effective if you can execute it, which is darn near impossible on clay

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[BlueClayGOAT]

Nadal is hard to play against because of one simple metric:

More than three out of four break points in our sport occur in the AD COURT. (Craig O’Shannessy)

This is a huge advantage for lefties, regardless of whom they're meeting, as they're able to serve out wide and open up the court on break points.

This is a wondrous stat. Thank you for this.

 

[smalahove]

When it comes to Nadal, if this is correct, this stat is extremely impressive. When facing a BP on his own serve at AD to the opponent, his winning percentage is 72,4% (2011 stats, see below). Compare that to a "measly" 52,4% when he has the AD. Talk about performing under pressure.

g40-AD 58 72.4% 57.9% 1.25

SCORE Pts Win% Exp Rate
g30-40 57 57.9% 63.4% 0.91
g40-30 110 74.5% 67.0% 1.11
g40-40 143 59.4% 60.9% 0.98
g40-AD 58 72.4% 57.9% 1.25
gAD-40 85 52.9% 62.9% 0.84


From: http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2011/12/02/rafael-nadal-point-by-point-profile/

 

[Deleted member 716271]

But surely this is balanced by the ability to get to a break point. Righties must have it easier there since they serve more strongly in the deuce court.

Yes exactly. It's obviously a zero sum game that balances out. Never understood how anyone could subscribe this logic.

A lefty could have a specific random matchup edge (Nadal's forehand to Fed backhand, but the same would be true if Nadal was righty and Fed lefty so it's not about being righty or lefty.)

The only true advantage a lefty has is that being about 10 percent of players, they are more used to playing the 90 percent of righties than vice versa. So 90 percent of the time they are at a slight "familiarity" advantage. And the 10 percent of the time they play another lefty, it's a wash, so they're never at a disadvantage in this regard.

 

[Tommy Haas]

Nadal is hard to play against because of one simple metric:

More than three out of four break points in our sport occur in the AD COURT. (Craig O’Shannessy)

This is a huge advantage for lefties, regardless of whom they're meeting, as they're able to serve out wide and open up the court on break points.

Because most players are right handed and Nadal being a lefty can hit the ad corner better.

 

[Tennisanity]

77% of all break points played on the ad side, regardless if you're a right or lefty, serving or receiving.

(Which means it is not balanced by the ability to get to a BP)

Yeah, I accept the numbers. But why not?

 

[Jaitock1991]

Not useless if executed perfectly(see Djokovic 2011 or some Fed matches here and there), but insanely difficult due to unpredictable bounces and Rafa's heavy spin, and also less effective due to the nature of the surface and Rafa's amazing anticipation and athleticism.

 

[Slightly D1]

Yes but its not sustainable for an entire match especially 5 sets.

 

[Service Ace]

Trying to take the ball early on clay against the heaviest topspin hitter of all time is a recipe for disaster.

 

[mistik]

it isnt useless but there are many times he also found amazing depth on clay.He doesnt allow you to play like this most of the time.

 

[BlueClayGOAT]

More than three out of four break points in our sport occur in the AD COURT. (Craig O’Shannessy)

I thought about this and the number (77%) makes sense. Let me explain:

Serving from the ad court means that the difference between the scores for that game is either 1 or 3 points (it can be 0-40, 30-40, or 40-Ad), which means 3 possible separate combinations of scores (apart from the fact that 40-Ad can occur infinitely many times per game and each of those will be served from the ad court).

Serving from the deuce court on break point implies the difference is only 2 points, hence the only possible combination at break point for a deuce court serve is 15-40.


Hence the relatively high number of ad serves as opposed to deuce serves on BP.

 

[MasturB]

I would have liked to have seen healthy Ljuberer on clay. Even when he was not 100% at Monte Carlo he was playing great clay tennis.

 

[BlueClayGOAT]

I would have liked to have seen healthy Ljuberer on clay. Even when he was not 100% at Monte Carlo he was playing great clay tennis.

How about he plays nothing but the 2018 AO after the 2017 WTF are done, before skipping IW and Miami and preparing solely for clay and returning for MC?

 

[smalahove]

Yeah, I accept the numbers. But why not?

The one big factor has to be that from 40-40, the game is only decided on the ad side.

The other important factor might be that the deuce side (for righties esp) is (perhaps) better for the big first serve down the T or out wide. However that is also harder shot to pull off when you're under pressure, so my guess is that as a result, we're seeing more second serves and DFs. But I have no stats to support those claims.

Imo, it would be interesting if they'd change the rules so that the server alternates if he starts the game on the ad or deuce side. Fair to all.