Is this 2024 the worst season of the former next-generation since 2019?
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Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I still think the Dimitrov/Raonic gen was weaker but this is a close second.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
Talents-wise or results-wise? Tsitsipas is stronger than Dimitrov, but Raonic and Thiem are probably better than all of them.
The Blond Blur
G.O.A.T.
Many of them absolutely did. That’s why we have the “tennis always evolves” memes, lol.
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
No. Wimbledon 2018 was a good slam for the period, but it’s emblematic of the core problem that slam winners during the weak era generally only have to beat 1 tough opponent. Yes, the SF vs Nadal was GOAT level, but who else was there? Nishikori in the QFs? Anderson in the final? What a sick joke! From 2011-2014, Djokovic would face a combination of Federer/Murray/Wawrinka/Nadal in the SF and F.
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Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
Federer didn’t have to face any prime ATG.
Djokovic at least beat Alcaraz in the FO SF.
Didn’t Alcaraz cramp after 2 sets and ceased to play proper tennis? Good battle for 2 sets at 1-1 then a virtual walkover.
You could say Djokovic didn’t face a prime ATG on any surface in 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023.
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
Yea, but a win is a win. I will give credit to Djokovic for holding off 20 yo Alcaraz in the same way I will give credit to Federer for holding off 20 yo Nadal.
Djokovic beat Nadal in the 2015 FO, and did beat Murray multiple times, who is among the best of the multi slam winners who didn’t make it to ATG status, so I don’t count 2015-2016 in the weak era. For the rest, yeah Djokovic didn’t, which is why I label it as the weakest era in modern tennis.
Nice try. That starts in 2011. And amount of matches is irrelevant, as it includes all ATP tournaments.
See who served the GOAT best in goat era, among next gen only Med hardly made top10.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Isn’t this just name-based analysis though? It equates a cramping player who faded away halfway through the match with someone who had no injury problems throughout.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
I won’t give Alcaraz a pass for cramping problems. That’s on him, not Djokovic. He was the prematch favorite. I also don’t give Nadal a pass for injury affected losses like the AO 2014 or AO 2010. Their lack of fitness means they were simply worse than their opponent, and their opponent still deserves credit for beating them.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Except Fed didn’t need Nadal to cramp to hold him off
But 2004-2005 is on par with 2015-2016 in that case. Nadal was anything but good in 2015-2016 and Murray wasn’t that good either in 2015-2016, certainly not tougher than anyone Fed faced
Dominic & Andrey
Legend
Peak Nishikori > Peak Tsitsipas on every surface.
ghostofMecir
Legend
In a way he kind of does because every other post on this entire board is his lol
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I’m not saying you should give him a pass. Alcaraz cramping was his problem.
I’m just saying that a win over non-cramping Nadal is simply more impressive than a win over cramping Alcaraz, all else being equal.
To restate, the presence of an injury here makes Federer’s wins more impressive in general, since he had to face the stronger opponent. That’s why penalizing him for not facing a “prime ATG” seems a bit weird when you credit Djokovic for facing an actual injured player.
(But even if Alcaraz wasn’t injured, it’s doubtful he’d surpass 2005/2006 RG Nadal anyway, since he couldn’t do it the next year.)
objection_
Semi-Pro
Yup, form of players is more important than just names
Hewitt/Roddick/Safin 2004/2005 played infinitely better than 2015 Nadal and probably 2014 Murray. 2015-2016 weren't amazing years but weren't super weak either, maybe slightly below 2004/2005 objectively. Post 2016 has been a cesspool barring wim 2018, most of 2019 and RG 2021. At least Sincaraz are starting to turn it around.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
The del Po match was very good
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
No, definitely think 2015-2016 were above 2004/2005
Yeah but Alcaraz basically didn’t finish the match. It would be like giving 07 Nadal the credit for beating Djokovic in the Wimbledon semi. It was a walkover.
objection_
Semi-Pro
To each their own...
Both 04 and 15 had Fed and Djoko crushing the tour, the only difference is one had very good players in good form, and one had great players in mediocre/decent form.
Happy to give 15 Fed the credit he deserves, even with his declined baseline game he was still excellent, all props for his run from halle to the USO and credit to Nole for taking a pretty tough opponent out. 15/16 Wawa was good but he only peaked for a handful of tourneys. Year by year comparing slam finals though:
2004 V 2015
AO: 2004, Neither finalist was really impressive in the final. However, Safin went through a much tougher draw than Murray did and Fed played better in AO 04 than Djoko in AO 15.
RG: 2015, 04's final was kinda a ****show, Stan was legit impressive in 15, hitting tons of winners against Djoko on clay isn't easy.
Wim: Slight edge 2004, 2015 final I felt was actually pretty good, especially the first 2 sets. Fed then decided to miss a club level sitter forehand winner down BP and gifted all the momentum to Djoko. 2004 final was high quality up until the end and the result didn't feel NID until the last point, both Fed and AROD played impressively throughout.
USO: Slight edge 2015, only because it was reasonably competitive, Fed really should have converted more BP's though. That being said, 2004 Fed was by far the most impressive out of the players in both the 04 and 15 finals.
2005 V 2016
AO: 2005, Djoko was impressive in the first set, but the result was NID. Both Safin and Hewitt played excellent tennis in the 05 final, IIRC Safin went on an absolute tear starting in the middle of the 3rd set.
RG: 2005, Youngdal and Puerta probably produced one of Rafa's toughest RG finals, it was a closely contested battle. Djoko was impressive in 2016 but Murray getting tired after 45 minutes after playing b2b 5 setters in the 1st/2nd round against Stepanek and Bourgue (who??) drags this one down.
Wim: Slight edge 2005, 2016 was maybe more tightly contested and was actually a pretty fun final to watch, but 05 Fed's incredible level puts this one over the top.
USO: Slight edge 2005, I felt the 2016 final was a bit overrated just because it featured Wawa stopping Djoko again, Most of their other previous slam battles were higher quality. Neither player was strong making the final, Wawa down MP against Evans in the 3R albeit beating Delpo and Nishi in impressive matches. Djoko had a draw of the walking corpses and his level was exposed in the final (although he had blisters iirc). In contrast, 2005 had 3 high octane sets, Fed's BH went awry at times but the hitting was monstrous from both sides, one of Fed's great FH performances too. Andre had his struggles reaching the final but the Blake QF was genuinely a great match.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
So wrong. Its so wrong.
There is no peak nishikori on grass or clay. On HC, Nishikori is far better in second half than first half.
Tsitsipas will trounce him on clay court.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Nishikori Serve and return stats on clay 78.6 + 30.1 = 108.7
Tsitsipas Serve and return stats on clay 84.7 + 27.7 = 112.4
Trounce.
Tsitsipas Serve and return stats on clay 84.7 + 27.7 = 112.4
Trounce.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Tsonga who has Tsitsipas like game, great serve, great forehand, weak backhand and good vollies. He took out Nishikori at RG. Clay is Tsonga's worst surface.
Nishikori Serve and return stats on clay 78.6 + 30.1 = 108.7
Tsitsipas Serve and return stats on clay 84.7 + 27.7 = 112.4
Tsonga Serve and return stats on clay 82.1 + 22.8 = 104.9
Even this weak Tsonga surface, he bullied Nishikori. It would be bad day for Kei vs Tsitsipas on clay.
Nishikori Serve and return stats on clay 78.6 + 30.1 = 108.7
Tsitsipas Serve and return stats on clay 84.7 + 27.7 = 112.4
Tsonga Serve and return stats on clay 82.1 + 22.8 = 104.9
Even this weak Tsonga surface, he bullied Nishikori. It would be bad day for Kei vs Tsitsipas on clay.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
Great assessment. However, Andre was pretty tired in the final after two b2b 5 set matches. In that sense, Novak faced much harder competition, even if it wasn't the best Djokovic-Wawrinka match. I think almost any version of Fed at Wimbledon is harder than Roddick, so disagree about the 2004 Wimbledon.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Probably only based on the names in the former, I’m guessing.
Who is beating Fed of 2004-2005 from those years?
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic. On clay, Rafa. Maybe even Wawrinka.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Well, 2015 Fed wasn’t harder than 2004/2009 Roddick
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Excluding Djokovic obviously. 2015-2016 Rafa isn’t beating Fed anywhere and Stan was his pigeon
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
But 2004-2005 Fed wasn't the best clay court player.
objection_
Semi-Pro
Nishikori peaked very highly at times but unfortunately body couldn't keep it for very long. He did make b2b QF at wimby only losing to pretty good versions of Djoko and Fed.
That being said, idk about Tpas trouncing him on clay courts. At best, maybe 60-40 in favour of Tpas. He usually peaks very high in MC, winning the title in 3 out of 4 years. Other than that though, he hasn't really a high consistent level on clay courts year by year.
2019 made madrid final and Rome SF but lost to Wawa in 4R RG
2020 lost RG SF to Nole but got trounced in 2R of Rome by baby Sinner
2021 RG F, Barca F and MC win, but lost 3R Madrid and QF Rome
2022 surprisingly the most consistent leading up to RG, MC W, Madrid SF and Rome F, lost early to Raz in Barca then got beaten by baby Rune in RG
2023 QF,QF,SF at masters then destroyed by Raz at RG and Barca
2024 Won MC and Barca F, then upset in Madrid and Rome and destroyed by his boogeyman Raz at RG again.
Nishi a step below but clearly no slouch on clay with 7 4R + appearances at RG, final of Madrid which he should have won against Nadal before getting injured, MC final losing to Nadal as well, won Barca twice and made another final losing to Nadal.
objection_
Semi-Pro
What does this have to do with anything? Tsonga had 4 Mp's against prime Djoko at RG 2012, are we going to use that to extrapolate that Tsitsipas is somehow going to beat prime Djoko?? sure he was a bit shaky in the 4R/QF of RG 2012, but we saw what happened against a good, albeit declined Djoko in 2021...
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
He is ok. But he has no advantage at all vs tsitsipas on clay. Djokovic who is like bigger nishokori barely won in 2 Roland garros matches. When the courts slow down and tsitsipas forehand fires it's really impossible to win for nishokori.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Tsitsipas took prime Djokovic to five 2 times at rg.
Yes we will. He is far better on clay than tsonga.
objection_
Semi-Pro
Weirdly enough Tpas does well at the AO and dubai but has only made a combined 2 Qf's at IW and Miami, he's only good in the first eight of the hardcourt season?
Or so you would think, but then he's actually made a Cincy F and 2 other SF's, a Canada F and another SF, so you'd think he would also have good results at the USO. Then we realise he's never made it past the 3R there, and in fact has lost more matches than he's won. What an unusual player.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Yes. Tsitsipas is good in first half only. Not sure why.
objection_
Semi-Pro
He's pretty good in the masters leading up to US open, always craps the bed at the Us Open then does well in the indoor season. It's almost as if he's intentionally not peaking for slams in the second half lol.
objection_
Semi-Pro
No it wasn't, although Djoko still played well.
That being said, the despite going 5 sets, Djoko was clearly in control in all of them, in 2020 he crushed tsitsipas first 2 sets, was leading 5-4 in the 3rd set with match point before mentally going awol before destroying him in set 5.
In 2021, after first 2 sets, I don't think Tpas even got a break point in any Djoko service game, although Djoko raised his level so credit to Nole here.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
It was a 100% prime Djokovic
One time he won beating Nadal and other time he won rome.
What did Djokovic achieve in 2012 clay season. Absolutely disastrous. It was luck that he even reached final.
2020 and 2021 clay Djokovic > 2012 clay Djokovic. So bad.
objection_
Semi-Pro
???
He made final of MC and Rome losing to arguably top 2/3 version of Nadal on clay, who didn't lose a single match on red clay that year
Lost in QF of Madrid IIRC due to slippery blue clay, just an anomaly, even peakdal choked to verdasco and lost here on blue clay.
2020 Djoko was decent in Rome and RG, still got bagelled though by a very impressive performance. 2021 Djoko won RG but got lost to 21Dal in Rome and got killed by Dan Evans of all people in MC... I don't even want to imagine what would have happened if 2012Dal was there.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
These versions are all fake. I don't care for them
Hard cold results matter. He lost. Badly. So bad that it is embarrassing as a nolefam. 6-1 6-3 or something. Wow. It was not a good year for nole on clay.
objection_
Semi-Pro
Yes results matter but context matters as well, Djoko did well in Rome beating pretty good Tsonga and Fed who just won title in Madrid
No one in history would be favoured against 2012 Nadal on clay, apart from maybe other versions of 2007/2008/2010/2017 Nadal himself...
Just take a look at the stats, https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ael-nadals-worst-ever-clay-season-o_o.705850/
Beating schwartzman and 2021Dal is different to peakdal.
Racquet_smash
Professional
I'd take prime Tsonga over any of these guys.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Tsonga is average player.
Djokovic has fared very well vs Nadal post 2010 even on clay. If not for rain he would have gone set less in 2012.
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
And I rate Fed’s win higher. That doesn’t mean Djokovic’s win doesn’t deserve credit.
I’m not sure we watched the same matches. 2015-2016 were some of Murray’s best years. Sorry, but for me, Murray, Wawrinka, old Fed and slump Nadal are still ahead of Roddick, Hewitt, old Agassi and womanizer Safin. I think the latter group is underrated, btw, but they’re just not as strong as the former.
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
See my response to @mike danny . I do rate Federer’s win higher and I’m one of the people who think young Nadal > young Alcaraz. But this doesn’t mean Djokovic beating Alcaraz wasn’t a good win. Djokovic proved it was no fluke by beating Alcaraz on PC again a year later.
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
It was. I was referring to the slam winner. Winning 2 tough matches in a row proved to be too much for Nadal, but Djokovic never had to do that.
Sputnik Bulgorov
Professional
I give 07 Nadal credit for beating Djokovic. A win is a win.
Dominic & Andrey
Legend
Peak Nishikori was owning Nadal in Madrid in 2014 before he injured himself.
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