Is THIS...finally... the beginning of the end for Fed?

Federev

Federev

G.O.A.T.
Say it isn't so.

But nothing Fed has shown since AO '18 says he's maintaining vs declining.

Rather it says he's amazing and still great, but he's running out of whatever brought him to near peak form at IW2017.

Of course, each year it gets harder and more inevitable. But most of 2017 & AO'18 was pure magic. It was like the finale of the greatest 4th of July fireworks show.

But since then - and even in hints before (remember WTF '17?) - its been a downward trend.

We're a little sore from SW19, so let's say v. Anderson was a bad day.

But honestly, Fed fan, ...can you see Fed holding off a resurgent Novak at USO - or even necessarily a strong Nadal showing? I don't see it as likely.

Rather, I can see him being humbled and overwhelmed by Delpo and Cilic and perhaps a resurgent Stan.

Maybe I am just the Eeyore of Fed fans, but if I had to bet I would say this is actually finally the beginning of the sunset.

I don't want it to be true, but can anyone give realistic evidence-based hope?
 
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The end has to come for Fed some time. The guy's almost a senior citizen/ OAP in tennis terms and this year hasn't been as good as last year. I hope he has a real good go at the USO18.
 
Xavier G said:
The end has to come for Fed some time. The guy's almost a senior citizen/ OAP in tennis terms and this year hasn't been as good as last year. I hope he has a real good go at the USO18.
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But that's the thing, it's all relative. 2 years ago his 2018 season would have been viewed as magical for us Fed fans, but because 2017 has spoiled us so much, we consider 2018 average now, when in fact it has still been a pretty good season.
 
It's too early to say yet. Now granted, his stats are definitely down this year. But it could be due to scheduling. I think that it was a mistake for Fed to play back-to-back tuneup events on grass prior to Wimbledon. I think that this wore him out. Last year, the only time that he played two different events in consecutive weeks was when he lost to Donskoy in Dubai. This early knockout gave him time to rest up for IW and Miami. Fed did lay an egg at Miami this year. And he choked at IW. But the close matches that Fed squeaked out last year are the ones he is losing this year. So last year, he was a tiny bit more clutch. But these things happen.

Let's see what he does this year. I really hope that he doesn't play Montreal, followed by Cinci. I think that will drain his tank for the USO. But let's see what happens.

As far as the slow courts at the USO go, I agree with the OP. I would favor the much younger Nadal and Djoker duo over the 37 year old Fed that'll be entering that tourney. I think that a best-case scenario for Fed at the USO is an appearance in the semi.

One thing that I will add: I highly doubt that Fed is as motivated this year as he was last year. Last year, he proved to the world that he could dominate the newer generation. Now that he has 20 slam titles, he is less motivated. He doesn't have that chip on his shoulder that he had last year which made him prove to the world that he wasn't washed up. Federer is more comfortable now. I would love to see what he could do against Djokovic. He took down Nadal last year by going 4-0. Can he beat Djokovic? I hope that we find out.
 
Bumps are in these days.

Reason I mention this is because I've a hunch that if all Federer decline threads were bumped, the first, say, five pages of GPPD might reflect a consistency that RF never wanted. :)
 
Federev said:
Say it isn't so.

But nothing Fed has shown since AO '18 says he's maintaining vs declining.

Rather it says he's amazing and still great, but he's running out of whatever brought him to near peak form at IW2017.

Of course, each year it gets harder and more inevitable. But most of 2017 & AO'18 was pure magic. It was like the finale of the greatest 4th of July fireworks show.

But since then - and even in hints before (remember WTF '17?) - its been a downward trend.

We're a little sore from SW19, so let's say v. Anderson was a bad day.

But honestly, Fed fan, ...can you see Fed holding off a resurgent Novak at USO - or even necessarily a strong Nadal showing? I don't see it as likely.

Rather, I can see him being humbled and overwhelmed by Delpo and Cilic and perhaps a resurgent Stan.

Maybe I am just the EE-Or of Fed fans, but if I had to bet I would say this is actually finally the beginning of the sunset.

I don't want it to be true, but can anyone give realistic evidence-based hope?
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I think unless he gets a really good draw...he might not make it past QF to be honest..At some point it has to end...I think I saw glimpses of it during IW against Coric and then against Delpo...he was missing routine FH...the ones he could hit in his sleep...but I will still watch him..I think the joy of watching him needs to seperated from the expectation of him winning another GS...I say that as an unabashed Fed fan...Need to use the remining few years as a farewell tour.. cherish and cheer his every win with moist eyes and a heavy heart..
 
mike danny said:
I don't think he is finished just yet. I think he still has 1 more left in him.

The Anderson loss simply reminded us that the guy is 37, not 27. He is not the favorite for every slam anymore, even his best one.
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And it also reminded us there are a lot of great players outside the big three. Of which Anderson is one. It is not a bad loss for Federer.
 
If he were to somehow win the US Open this year I can almost guarantee he will seriously consider calling it a career.
 
People were saying even worse about him based on his poor end of year last year, then he raced into the finals of the Australian without dropping a set. There's simply no way anymore to put together a valid argument about why you think he's declining/on his way out. It's just a waste of breath.
 
Do not worry. Somewhere in San Diego, in a damp smelly basement, a fat low-life turd on his computer is doing his best to jinx Fed's rivals by posting jinx threads on this forum during each tournament. As long as he does this, there is hope for Fed.
 
Le Master said:
People were saying even worse about him based on his poor end of year last year, then he raced into the finals of the Australian without dropping a set. There's simply no way anymore to put together a valid argument about why you think he's declining/on his way out. It's just a waste of breath.
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fair enough.
 
The more I think about it the more it's mind blowing that he's still playing at this age. I mean unless you're Karlovic and you didn't need your legs in the first place you just don't play professional tennis at this level at the age of 37.

Still, he has so much pride that I don't think he'd want to retire after a stinker. I think he has 1 last Slam in him, maybe even this US Open.
 
parvasedpotens said:
And it also reminded us there are a lot of great players outside the big three. Of which Anderson is one. It is not a bad loss for Federer.
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There ARE great players. I think Cilic is a sports psych session away from multiple slams.

But look at Fed's 2017. (not to mention the GS winners from 2018).

It looks more like Fed's decline in 2018 (even if still great) from 2017 is the result of Fed's decline and not the strength of the field.
 
As long as the young guys are chumps he'll keep hanging around and winning his meaningless titles. Dude is such an egomaniac, always needs to feed his ego to be relevant, so SICKENING. But Nole and Rafa are probably going to shut him out from slams for here on out, we know how the story ends when those two are in good form. It's GAME OVER for Fedster...
 
metsman said:
As long as the young guys are chumps he'll keep hanging around and winning his meaningless titles. Dude is such an egomaniac, always needs to feed his ego to be relevant, so SICKENING. But Nole and Rafa are probably going to shut him out from slams for here on out, we know how the story ends when those two are in good form. It's GAME OVER for Fedster...
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Seriously - are you 90s Clay? Also - your posts are amazing in their intensity.
 
metsman said:
As long as the young guys are chumps he'll keep hanging around and winning his meaningless titles. Dude is such an egomaniac, always needs to feed his ego to be relevant, so SICKENING. But Nole and Rafa are probably going to shut him out from slams for here on out, we know how the story ends when those two are in good form. It's GAME OVER for Fedster...
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"when those two are in good form"

Rafa was soooo lame last year ...destroying the field, #1, multiple slams, etc.

And Fed had such a tough time with him.
 
Federev said:
"when those two are in good form"

Rafa was soooo lame last year ...destroying the field, #1, multiple slams, etc.

And Fed had such a tough time with him.
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LMAO it's so obvious Rafa is washed up. Main competitor at RG is a von Trapp family singer so it's obvious why he keeps winning. We've seen time and time again that Nadal and Nole OWN Fed in big matches when they are in good form. Fed does a great job mopping up the titles when those two are out of form or injured though, I'll give him that. More opportunistic than a gold digger LMAO
 
metsman said:
LMAO it's so obvious Rafa is washed up. Main competitor at RG is a von Trapp family singer so it's obvious why he keeps winning. We've seen time and time again that Nadal and Nole OWN Fed in big matches when they are in good form. Fed does a great job mopping up the titles when those two are out of form or injured though, I'll give him that. More opportunistic than a gold digger LMAO
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wow. You are amazing.

Are you 90s Clay?
 
Federev said:
Say it isn't so.

But nothing Fed has shown since AO '18 says he's maintaining vs declining.

Rather it says he's amazing and still great, but he's running out of whatever brought him to near peak form at IW2017.

Of course, each year it gets harder and more inevitable. But most of 2017 & AO'18 was pure magic. It was like the finale of the greatest 4th of July fireworks show.

But since then - and even in hints before (remember WTF '17?) - its been a downward trend.

We're a little sore from SW19, so let's say v. Anderson was a bad day.

But honestly, Fed fan, ...can you see Fed holding off a resurgent Novak at USO - or even necessarily a strong Nadal showing? I don't see it as likely.

Rather, I can see him being humbled and overwhelmed by Delpo and Cilic and perhaps a resurgent Stan.

Maybe I am just the Eeyore of Fed fans, but if I had to bet I would say this is actually finally the beginning of the sunset.

I don't want it to be true, but can anyone give realistic evidence-based hope?
Click to expand...

I’m optimistic actually. I don’t see his tennis as the issue. He was well ahead in the close losses this year, had match points even.

If he can figure out his mental and emotional lapses he’s back to competing for deep runs and the titles that come with them.

All depends on whether he has the motivation to continue as a professional tennis player.
 
Federev said:
There ARE great players. I think Cilic is a sports psych session away from multiple slams.

But look at Fed's 2017. (not to mention the GS winners from 2018).

It looks more like Fed's decline in 2018 (even if still great) from 2017 is the result of Fed's decline and not the strength of the field.
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Agreed. That said, Federer at Wimbledon reminded me of Federer at tournaments like the 2009 US Open. He dominated every match..until he lost.
 
tennisaddict said:
Fed will be a contender at Wimbledon till he retires

Other tournaments he has to roll the dice and he will always give himself some chances even though he is not the top favorite
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He is not that dominant on grass. Either Djokovic or Nadal will not let him win in his 39-40s. So he is not gonna be an eternal contender for the title there. This year he couldn't beat Coric and Anderson, let alone Djokovic.
 
Pheasant said:
It's too early to say yet. Now granted, his stats are definitely down this year. But it could be due to scheduling. I think that it was a mistake for Fed to play back-to-back tuneup events on grass prior to Wimbledon. I think that this wore him out. Last year, the only time that he played two different events in consecutive weeks was when he lost to Donskoy in Dubai. This early knockout gave him time to rest up for IW and Miami. Fed did lay an egg at Miami this year. And he choked at IW. But the close matches that Fed squeaked out last year are the ones he is losing this year. So last year, he was a tiny bit more clutch. But these things happen.

Let's see what he does this year. I really hope that he doesn't play Montreal, followed by Cinci. I think that will drain his tank for the USO. But let's see what happens.

As far as the slow courts at the USO go, I agree with the OP. I would favor the much younger Nadal and Djoker duo over the 37 year old Fed that'll be entering that tourney. I think that a best-case scenario for Fed at the USO is an appearance in the semi.

One thing that I will add: I highly doubt that Fed is as motivated this year as he was last year. Last year, he proved to the world that he could dominate the newer generation. Now that he has 20 slam titles, he is less motivated. He doesn't have that chip on his shoulder that he had last year which made him prove to the world that he wasn't washed up. Federer is more comfortable now. I would love to see what he could do against Djokovic. He took down Nadal last year by going 4-0. Can he beat Djokovic? I hope that we find out.
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A very good post.

Really depends on how long he wants to play waiting for an opportunity to grab a last Major. I doubt he can beat a back-to -top-form Djokovic but I could see him taking another Wimbledon if there was a Djoko upset in an earlier round and if he had a decent draw. Not saying this is likely but it's not delusional levels of optimism.

I also thought last time I saw his daughters - they're not little girls any more. I doubt very much if they'll be happy travelling so much for much longer. Developmentally girls of this age will want to start separating from their families, establish their own identities and spend more time with their peer group.

But logically at some point it does have to come to an end! He isn't going to be winning slams in his fifties is he?
 
parvasedpotens said:
Agreed. That said, Federer at Wimbledon reminded me of Federer at tournaments like the 2009 US Open. He dominated every match..until he lost.
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Fed’s motivation has always been the most fascinating part to me.

What makes him tick?

2009 USO Final is a great example.

In fact, every time he’s across Delpo how he ends up playing communicates a lot about what motivates him.

I think Fed’s motivation is unique to him, it’s different from every other person on tour.

It’s both his best asset and worst liability.
 
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Sport said:
He is not that dominant on grass. Either Djokovic or Nadal will not let him win in his 39-40s. So he is not gonna be an eternal contender for the title there. This year he couldn't beat Coric and Anderson, let alone Djokovic.
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Peak Nadal , Djoker and Murray could not stop him in 2012

Wimbledon is on Fed’s racket for the most part. Like Pete, Fed will always be a top favorite there . Does not mean he will win every time but there will never be a time when you can rule him out of the favorites list
 
Feel like he's become such a grandmaster at calling his own shots and controlling the narrative surrounding him that the transition will be more seamless than those radio ads that blend flawlessly from the actual broadcast. You know the ones. Humming along to a catchy tune, and you soon realize that you're jamming to a convenience store commercial.

Point is he could become a retiree before folks would even know what hit them. Everything's in place for the next phase of global conquest.

He's repeatedly stated that he's not doing the retirement tour thing; Edberg regretted that.

Aside from the humanitarian stuff, will definitely be interesting to see the way that Laver Cup develops over the next few years.
 
Hydrocella said:
Fed’s motivation has always been the most fascinating part to me.

What makes him tick?

2009 USO Final is a great example.

In fact, every time he’s across Delpo how he ends up playing communicates a lot about what motivates him.

I think Fed motivation is unique to him, it’s different from every other person on tour.

It’s both his best asset and worst liability.
Click to expand...
You are spot on...what motivates him is the key..not just before the match..but during the match when you are in the fifth set and trying desperately to win..do you let go of the rope or try to hang on..
One thing that amazes me about him is that even during the lean years when every media person in the world was doubting him..he never wavered..if you go back and look at the press conferences from those lean years...it's almost like he was oblivious to the fact that everyone has written him off..always looked at the positives from the losses and never despaired...it was almost zen like...I think thats a great lesson just not in sports but for life in general...
 
Sport said:
He is not that dominant on grass. Either Djokovic or Nadal will not let him win in his 39-40s. So he is not gonna be an eternal contender for the title there. This year he couldn't beat Coric and Anderson, let alone Djokovic.
Click to expand...
Djokovic and Nadal are not going to stop him everytime. They are not in their primes anymore.

And who said Fed can't beat either of them anyway? If he arrives next year in 2017 form he might beat a Djokovic who is really unlikely to play at 2015 level in the future given his age. And Nadal is also not returning to 2008 form given his age.
 
FedFosterWallace said:
Feel like he's become such a grandmaster at calling his own shots and controlling the narrative surrounding him that the transition will be more seamless than those radio ads that blend flawlessly from the actual broadcast. You know the ones. Humming along to a catchy tune, and you soon realize that you're jamming to a convenience store commercial.

Point is he could become a retiree before folks would even know what hit them. Everything's in place for the next phase of global conquest.

He's repeatedly stated that he's not doing the retirement tour thing; Edberg regretted that.

Aside from the humanitarian stuff, will definitely be interesting to see the way that Laver Cup develops over the next few years.
Click to expand...

I really really really hope he uses his influence and voice to reorganize tennis for the better in the coming years.

The sport badly needs someone at the top looking out for it.

As a player yes, he ought to look out for his interests. Post career, I hope he aspires to something even greater.
 
I don’t want to believe it myself but he’s not the same as he was at the start of 2017, he over exterted himself. Truth is he hasn’t been all that great since Wimbledon in 2017.
 
Pheasant said:
It's too early to say yet. Now granted, his stats are definitely down this year. But it could be due to scheduling. I think that it was a mistake for Fed to play back-to-back tuneup events on grass prior to Wimbledon. I think that this wore him out. Last year, the only time that he played two different events in consecutive weeks was when he lost to Donskoy in Dubai. This early knockout gave him time to rest up for IW and Miami. Fed did lay an egg at Miami this year. And he choked at IW.
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So true.

I was pounding the proverbial pavement when fed announced Stutt AND Halle AND Wimby. 3 tournaments so close is pushing it too far.

If you look at Fed's return since AO '17 he's been good for 2 close tournaments in a row TOPS and then he either has a let down or injury - or the clay break.

Consider

2 WINS: Perth & AO '17 win (w groin injury)

DUB - donkey fail

2 WINS: IW & MIAMI - win (then worn out)

Claydal break

Stutt - Hasse fail

2 WINS: Halle & Wimby - win

Montreal - tweaks back & Sasha fail

USO fail - Backerer

2 Wins : Shanghai & Basel win

WTF - little Prince Goffin burn out fail

(break)

2 Wins : Perth & AO

Adds a late Rott to secure #1, but then...IW Delpo fail & Miami crash

Claydal break

... Stutt/Halle/Wimby 2018: He scheduled too much for His Grampererer Body.
 
tennisaddict said:
Fed will be a contender at Wimbledon till he retires

Other tournaments he has to roll the dice and he will always give himself some chances even though he is not the top favorite
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This. He's 37 folks. Now 27 or even 30. 37 is beyond ancient, and I still suspect we won't see Nadal and Djokovic producing this sort of performance at his age. I could of course be wrong!
 
Jontyg said:
You are spot on...what motivates him is the key..not just before the match..but during the match when you are in the fifth set and trying desperately to win..do you let go of the rope or try to hang on..
One thing that amazes me about him is that even during the lean years when every media person in the world was doubting him..he never wavered..if you go back and look at the press conferences from those lean years...it's almost like he was oblivious to the fact that everyone has written him off..always looked at the positives from the losses and never despaired...it was almost zen like...I think thats a great lesson just not in sports but for life in general...
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This is why the lean 2009 USO ~ 2017 AO is my favourite arc of Fed’s career.

How he continued to never give up.

How he continued to evolve.

How does the most successful person in the history of the sport decide to change the things that brought him all that success?

No successful player in history of tennis changed their racquets while still making deep runs and being top 5, and yet there was Fed, making that change.

People like to focus on his wins, I love seeing how he responds to losses.
 
Hydrocella said:
This is why the lean 2009 USO ~ 2017 AO is my favourite arc of Fed’s career.

How he continued to never give up.

How he continued to evolve.

How does the most successful person in the history of the sport decide to change the things that brought him all that success?

No successful player in history of tennis changed their racquets while still making deep runs and being top 5, and yet there was Fed, making that change.

People like to focus on his wins, I love seeing how he responds to losses.
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You are made of stronger stuff than me..A Fed loss spoils the entire tournament for me...but I get your point...
 
Jontyg said:
You are made of stronger stuff than me..A Fed loss spoils the entire tournament for me...but I get your point...
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It’s about perspective and this article while he was right in the middle of those lean years offered it to me.

It’s my favourite Fed article.

Hopefully it might do the same for you.

The Sun Never Sets On Roger Federer

“...what I find most admirable in Federer’s late career is simply the vision of freedom it implies. The idea that you can make your own way. That you don’t have to give up what you love simply because you’re told to. That what hurts you might also fulfill you, or even make you happy, because life is not simple. Even sports are not simple, unless you force them to be.”
 
I said in another thread that Fed's noticeable grumpiness at Halle could indicate that he was feeling something that wasn't obvious to us, something about his fitness to get to a bigger prize.

On the other side of it, that choke wasn't any worse than some of the stuff he did in the 08-15 period, either.
 
He can still make deep runs but don't feel he has another Grand Slam victory in him ...especially with Djokovic back
 
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