It’s crazy but it feels like Federer is out of the slam race

Why? Federer still HAS the lead and is still playing. People are assuming Nadal wins another slam and whilst that is certainly a possibility, it's not a certainty with Djokovic still around plus several players are actually now stepping up. Thiem is still a threat to Nadal at the french and i don't see Nadal winning another Wimbledon. That's ignoring the biggest threat to the players now, injury and fatigue due to age which could hit any of them at any time.
I'd love to see Thiem beat Nadal at the French. However, if past is prologue, his chances aren't high:

2019: Nadal beat Thiem 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1. [Game score 23-12].
2018: Nadal beat Thiem 6-4 6-3 6-2. [Game score 18-9].
2017: Nadal beat Thiem 6-3 6-4 6-0. [Game score 18-7].
2014: Nadal beat Thiem 6-2 6-2 6-3. [Game score 18-7].

13 sets played there and Thiem got to 5-5 ONCE. He did, admittedly, end up winning that set.
 

ewiewp

Semi-Pro
Seems like a 2 man race right now with Rafa a heavy favorite with a 3 slam lead.

Short of Medvedev proving he can maintain or improve his level and going on a tear... more Novak/Rafa slams are coming
My prediction always has been that Federer will end up as #3 player of last 15 years(modern baseline era).
And I think Djokovic or Nadal may reach 7th year end #1.
 
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terribleIVAN

Professional
It's no surprise Fed always departs at the 4R/quarter/semi final stage in slams. There wasn't any injury 10 days ago: Dimitrov was playing first-strike tennis with him, and his body all of a sudden collapsed from previous exhaustion.

At 38, even with 2 days rest at slams, you're going to start feeling your body after 3-4 rds, especially when you're forced to play first-strike tennis with other talented titlists.

As far as Thiem at RG, his time might already have gone, although i wish it isn't.

Rafa probably still has 2 RG in him, if no young gun shows up.
 

ForumMember

Hall of Fame
RF played a very good USO and was stopped not by his pigeon Dimitrov but by injury.

It is most definitely a Big 3 thing still.
He didn't play a very good USO even if we don't take into account his loss to Dimi. He lost sets to likes of Nagal who doesn't have a single win on ATP tour. Lost set to Dzumhur. He picked up against Evans and Goffin, but more than Federer playing great these were the cases of other player not showing up at all.

But of course, I don't rule him out from winning more slams. But he may require some help with the draw going forward.
 

Krish0608

Hall of Fame
He didn't play a very good USO even if we don't take into account his loss to Dimi. He lost sets to likes of Nagal who doesn't have a single win on ATP tour. Lost set to Dzumhur. He picked up against Evans and Goffin, but more than Federer playing great these were the cases of other player not showing up at all.

But of course, I don't rule him out from winning more slams. But he may require some help with the draw going forward.
Except for the French Open, that's the case with Rafa too. He is not spring chicken anymore. He won this USO with ample help from the draw. This year and the 2017 USO. Take a look at what happened last year at the USO. After the battles against Khachanov, Basil and Thiem, he couldn't compete against Potro. Both Federer and Nadal need to get a bit lucky to win Grand Slams here on. The only place where they are comfortably ahead of the field is Nadal at FO and to a lesser extent Federer at Wimbledon (barring Djoker of course)
 

ForumMember

Hall of Fame
Except for the French Open, that's the case with Rafa too. He is not spring chicken anymore. He won this USO with ample help from the draw. This year and the 2017 USO. Take a look at what happened last year at the USO. After the battles against Khachanov, Basil and Thiem, he couldn't compete against Potro. Both Federer and Nadal need to get a bit lucky to win Grand Slams here on. The only place where they are comfortably ahead of the field is Nadal at FO and to a lesser extent Federer at Wimbledon (barring Djoker of course)
I agree that is case with Nadal too but not to the same extent as with Federer. And you need not to be a sherlock to know it's because Fed has 5 years on Nadal. Fed has been far more inconsistent since he won that AO open last year. Agree Fed would still have chances at W because upcoming players are clueless on grass and Fed's main challenge still going to come from Djokovic and Nadal.
 

merwy

Legend
It’s ridiculous to say he’s “out” of the slam race. That would mean he doesn’t have a chance of finishing as #1, which is not true as he could still finish first if even if he retired today. I would give him less than 50% chance of keeping the lead though
 
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dgold44

G.O.A.T.
Fed 2003-9 was when he won most of his majors
Since then its only been 4 and the last 3 had no Djoker

Nadal has been blitzed by Djoker many times at Aussie
 

D.Nalby12

Legend
In 2016 I certainly believed Nadal is out of race after two consecutive bad years.

In beginning of 2018 I thought Novak is out of race when Fed led him 20-12.

Today both are back in race. In Tennis things could change very fast. May be Nadal going hit 21 on next FO or Federer will do it at AO. Who knows.


Federer has a lot of good Tennis left in him. But only thing going against him is inability to bring Best Tennis at USO. So that gives him just 2 realistic shots at Slams when his rivals still good enough to have shot at all four or at lesst three.
 

Rickenbacker4003

Hall of Fame
He didn't play a very good USO even if we don't take into account his loss to Dimi. He lost sets to likes of Nagal who doesn't have a single win on ATP tour. Lost set to Dzumhur. He picked up against Evans and Goffin, but more than Federer playing great these were the cases of other player not showing up at all.

But of course, I don't rule him out from winning more slams. But he may require some help with the draw going forward.
And he got trashed by Rublev in Cincy
 

wangs78

Hall of Fame
Fed definitely still has plenty of chances to win 1-2 more between the AO, Wimby and USO (the long drought at the USO has been due to bad luck if you ask me and a title is overdue).

The question I have though is whether Fed still has the motivation. That loss in the Wimby final was tough to swallow, and his hiccups in the early rounds of the USO may have been a sign of that. Then the bad luck of getting injured ahead of the Dimitrov match at the USO. If I were he, the realization that so many things have to go right in order to win a Slam (a decent draw, staying healthy for two weeks, not running into a zoning young player or even an in-form Djokovic) would be very daunting. And even if the stars align and he does win 1 more Slam, Nadal could still surpass him given the gap is so small. Summoning that final push when there may be nothing more than an empty pot at the end of that rainbow could prove insurmountable.

I think we will get a good indication based on Fed's body language and form in the remaining months of 2019. If he looks good and looks ready to make a big push in 2020, I think he can win 1 more for sure. His level in the Wimby final was incredible and if not for nerves during the tiebreaks, he actually had the higher level for most the match and would have won.

But to stay motivated, to keep staying mentally positive and training hard, doing injury prevention exercises and all that, when so much of the outcome of the Slam race is now out of his control, it's really hard to motivate oneself under those circumstances.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
I think had Berretini taken that first set, Rafa would have lost the 5th in the final.
It's possible Berretini would've disappeared completely even after winning that first set. We've seen this story many times where a young player plays out of his mind and wins the first set and then goes to the dumps right after. Nadal probably wouldn't have expended much energy as we'd think. If it had been a grinding 5 set affair against Berrettini then possibly Nadal would've struggled in the final physically and perhaps lost it.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
It's possible Berretini would've disappeared completely even after winning that first set. We've seen this story many times where a young player plays out of his mind and wins the first set and then goes to the dumps right after. Nadal probably wouldn't have expended much energy as we'd think. If it had been a grinding 5 set affair against Berrettini then possibly Nadal would've struggled in the final physically and perhaps lost it.
The real MVP might be Kokinnakis ;)
 

vex

Hall of Fame
Interesting view.My feeling is that 2019 is actually the last of the proper Big3/4 years in terms of Slam dominance.
Anything’s possible but I remember thinking this back in ‘15? ‘16? When Fed and Rafa we’re getting bounced in early rounds of the AO and USO.
 
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