It's official: Federer will not play Madrid or Rome
- Thread starter BeatlesFan
- Start date
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Meles, post: 11119210, member: 706609"]He's been playing with a shakey arm for a year now (serve velocity on first serve down conservatively 5 mph from a few years ago, and the great Becker inspired 2nd serve is surprisingly missing too). Just skipped Miami; beating Djokovic at this point in time is about like beating peak Berdbrain.Djokoray will not be able to find top form instanteously. I'd be surprised if they play all three clay masters 1000 especially Rome and Madrid back to back. Murray last year was quite shakey after extended break after Auz Open and slowly found some form on clay. He's in about the same spot this year with a flakey elbow. The state of Djokovic's game may be worse and take even longer to find form; he did OK in Doha with a walkover geriatric draw, but otherwise he's not done much since last year's US Open.
LOL. So why is he playing DC on hc if he's so injured? That makes no sense. As for Djokovic finding form, how do you know he won't find decent form quickly? I love all these mind readers on TTW.
Three clay warm-ups aren't enough time for an ATG to find some good form if he's motivated? Personally, I hope he meets big serving and big hitting players like Kyrgios who slap his boring tennis arse out of tournament after tournament but I probably won't be so lucky as this is clay, a grinder's paradise, and he may achieve some kind of decent form with this pathetic excuse of a weak field out there especially on a clay surface.I'll have say I've seen quite a bit of Murray for years and he looked a bit haggard at Miami on the court and even in the practice sessions. I've not watched a lot of Murray practice sessions, but Murray is suddenly looking suspiciously older after his stellar Fall last year.
Didn't you along with a lot of other TTW posters have Murray winning the CYGS a couple of months ago based on his 2016 year? Now you have him shaky and barely able to hit a tennis ball? Typical TTW and the recency effect. He probably needed a break after all of the effort he put into becoming #1 last year. He's been training on clay and he'll probably be fine. He was never going to be the type of #1 or type of player to continue winning everything or to go on and win 10 slams. Even if Federer, Nadal and Djokovic were hit by a bus years ago, IMO Murray wouldn't have been the guy to dominate the way they did. I don't think he's made that way.
Murray and Djokovic are essentially grinders and I doubt they will win every tennis tournament any longer but surely to write them both off and for them not to win any more big tournaments including a few slams is too premature? Have you looked at the current top ten? Which players outside Federer these days can potentially consistently beat Murray or Djokovic in halfway decent form? Are Nishikori, Cilic and Thiem going to do it?
The only hope is that players like Kyrgios, Zverev and maybe even a player like Dimitrov can get their acts together and be consistent enough to do it. Can Nadal beat even this poor form Djokovic on clay? Nadal has looked shaky himself so hopefully he'll beast on clay and knock out the competition but I'll have to see it to believe it. Wawrinka can beat Djokovic and Murray on clay but you never know which Wawrinka version will show up. I just think clay is a surface where Djokovic and Murray may find some form again especially without the GOAT Federer around. I hope we get some surprises from younger players who can shake things up but I won't hold my breath. You have to figure Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka will be the favorites on clay. Wash, rinse and repeat.
The Fedfather
Legend
On the other hand, grinding it out on clay won't do Federer any favors when the grass season starts, and that's when he needs to be at his best. Also, by allowing himself to rest properly and not overexerting Roger's prolonging his career and making sure his body isn't broken by the time he retires. That's much more important than the #1 ranking.
swordtennis
G.O.A.T.
Darn I was hoping for a player to give fed a beat down and shut up the loud mouths around here.
AceSalvo
Legend
Fed could reach #1 by playing really well in the tournaments after Wimby. Basically 0 points to defend there.
The more important question has to be 'is Fed sacrificing the YE#1 for a GS?'. Based on his decision so far, pretty much, even though that next GS is not guaranteed.
Last edited:
Tennis_Hands
Banned
It is exactly the opposite.
His chances in Madrid are much higher and the playing conditions there are more suitable for his current playing style.
Rome can only hurt his chances to perform well at RG and the grass court season.
He might regret that he skipped Madrid, if it comes to the WTF to determine the YE#1 in the end.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
The thing is, there is no guarantee that he will get another Major this year, no matter how few tournaments he plays.
In the long run it might happen so that it is easier to maintain relative high level without winning more Majors this year and end up as the YE#1.
I guess that he is risking this as it is not all that important to him, but putting all his eggs in one basket (i.e. throwing everything at winning another Major) might prove pretty fruitless on all fronts.
With all that being said we have to finally come to an agreement that Federer is the type of player that doesn't need long playing hours to fine-tune his game after a long absence, so all the talk about him not being prepared for RG due to lack of match practice in the clay season is just pointless. His chances of winning it are the same with or without prior clay tournament, IMO.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
tenisdecente
Hall of Fame
It is exactly the opposite.
His chances in Madrid are much higher and the playing conditions there are more suitable for his current playing style.
Rome can only hurt his chances to perform well at RG and the grass court season.
He might regret that he skipped Madrid, if it comes to the WTF to determine the YE#1 in the end.
I agree that Madrid is the best event for him. I was talking about preparation for RG
mikeeeee
Professional
I still think he should enter one for practice, otherwise he's basically saying he knows he has no chance to win RG and will just show up for the fans and hope Nadal and Novak get upset in the early rounds. Maybe he's already practicing on grass and will just enter RG for those said reasons.
MasturB
Legend
He's way past the point of mandatory. He's hit every benchmark on tour to where he can play whichever tournaments he pleases.
I don`t think he is concerned about points just slams. He has a chance if fresh and healthy at 2 slams The Championshits at Wimblewherever and the US open. Playing the French for fun and whatever, but I feel he wants those other 2 (Sorry England, but still hanging to the Awl White vestige smells of smugness)One can only hope provided he doesn't jeopardize his body in the process. I don't care about tournament wins on clay atm but the valuable points which may prove to be very crucial at end of the year
Meles
Bionic Poster
LOL. So why is he playing DC on hc if he's so injured? That makes no sense. As for Djokovic finding form, how do you know he won't find decent form quickly? I love all these mind readers on TTW.
Didn't you along with a lot of other TTW posters have Murray winning the CYGS a couple of months ago based on his 2016 year? Now you have him shaky and barely able to hit a tennis ball? Typical TTW and the recency effect. He probably needed a break after all of the effort he put into becoming #1 last year. He's been training on clay and he'll probably be fine. He was never going to be the type of #1 or type of player to continue winning everything or to go on and win 10 slams. Even if Federer, Nadal and Djokovic were hit by a bus years ago, IMO Murray wouldn't have been the guy to dominate the way they did. I don't think he's made that way.
Murray and Djokovic are essentially grinders and I doubt they will win every tennis tournament any longer but surely to write them both off and for them not to win any more big tournaments including a few slams is too premature? Have you looked at the current top ten? Which players outside Federer these days can potentially consistently beat Murray or Djokovic in halfway decent form? Are Nishikori, Cilic and Thiem going to do it?
We basically agree. The field is pretty wide open if you're banking on Djokoray to dominate clay. Anything but wash, rinse, and repeat with the weakness at the top. I would throw Thiem and Federer into the mix at the top. Expecting Zverev to get some scalps on clay. Zverev will line up with one of your clay favorites for a round of 16 clash at Monte Carlo and he'll have a great chance against any of them.
smoledman
G.O.A.T.
Ummm I expect Rafa will have something to say about that. He's still the King of Clay until he retires.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I don't think Rafa is losing to nobodies on clay (he hasn't on hard courts.) I do think even Kyrgios could be trouble if Rafa can't break him on clay. Add in Zverev and the other six players and its possible he could get knocked out as early as R16 or QF at the clay masters events.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Meles, post: 11123389, member: 706609"
LOL. So if we basically agree, why are you rolling your eyes?
The field is pretty wide open if you're banking on Djokoray to dominate clay.
I'm laughing at you for throwing Thiem in with Federer. How can those two players be thrown in anywhere together?
I think the clay season seems more open now but how much do you want to bet we will probably be looking at one of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka or Federer (unlikely unless the draw collpases) for the FO 2017 title? I think guys like Thiem, Zverev, Kyrgios, etc. can act as stoppers to the Big Five but I doubt they will walk away with the FO title.
FudgeControl
Banned
What's the reasoning behind his withdrawals?
Is he expecting to win RG sleazily? To get an easy draw?
Fed is the shadiest tennis player of all time. He chickened out of the WTF 2014 final, and played in the DC final days later; and now this.
SMH Fed...
Is he expecting to win RG sleazily? To get an easy draw?
Fed is the shadiest tennis player of all time. He chickened out of the WTF 2014 final, and played in the DC final days later; and now this.
SMH Fed...
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Agreed. I predict Thiem does nothing this clay season and doesn't even reach a final. If Nick keeps his head in the game, he can go deep in some of these clay events. His serve would be VERY hard to break even on clay.
ncgator
Rookie
I don't think Federer really cares much at all about reaching #1 ranking at this point. I think he just wants another Wimbledon and if all goes well another USO. That being said, I think he has a legitimate shot at the FO if he comes in rested with no expectations or pressure.The thing is, there is no guarantee that he will get another Major this year, no matter how few tournaments he plays.
In the long run it might happen so that it is easier to maintain relative high level without winning more Majors this year and end up as the YE#1.
I guess that he is risking this as it is not all that important to him, but putting all his eggs in one basket (i.e. throwing everything at winning another Major) might prove pretty fruitless on all fronts.
With all that being said we have to finally come to an agreement that Federer is the type of player that doesn't need long playing hours to fine-tune his game after a long absence, so all the talk about him not being prepared for RG due to lack of match practice in the clay season is just pointless. His chances of winning it are the same with or without prior clay tournament, IMO.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Roger said after the exo with Murray:
"Asked what his plans were over the coming weeks, Federer responded: 'Not very much.
"I'll be resting most of the time. The body needs a rest, I can feel it.
"Everything is good. I should be back for the French Open, that's the plan."
http://www.eurosport.com/tennis/mur...bition-against-federer_sto6126236/story.shtml
"Asked what his plans were over the coming weeks, Federer responded: 'Not very much.
"I'll be resting most of the time. The body needs a rest, I can feel it.
"Everything is good. I should be back for the French Open, that's the plan."
http://www.eurosport.com/tennis/mur...bition-against-federer_sto6126236/story.shtml
Mainad
Bionic Poster
Exactly. The level he is playing at the moment, he has a legitimate shot at winning any event he chooses to play!
FudgeControl
Banned
Monte Carlo included?
Are you joking or not? It is hard to tell.
Assuming you aren't joking - the WTF 2014 final he pulled out due to a back injury. The DC finals - he was still bad when he played his first match against Monfils. It took them a long time to get him right for the next match. So it wasn't just a few days - it was a whole week until he was in functional form.
The WTF final was scheduled to be on 16th of November, 2014
The last Davis Cup match was on the 23rd of November - and Federer obviously wasn't in functional form until then (see his match with Monfils where he was obviously sub-par).
It also is known that Federer has an ongoing back issue that he has to manage with preventative exercise. What extra information do you have to determine that he was 'chickening out'? People get hurt in professional sports. It is just a fact of life.
Last edited:
kanamit
Hall of Fame
Roger is exempt from all mandatory events because of his age and number of matches played in his career. He can literally play, or not play, any event as he pleases.
With regards to YE#1, playing next to no clay lessens his chances but it isn't fatal. I highly doubt any one player is going to sweep the clay season. His 1800 points lead with hopefully a nice QF for 360 means he has roughly 2160 points cushion before he gets overtaken in the race.
The only guy who has any chance of surpassing that is Nadal -
Say he gets MC - W, Barcelona - W, Madrid - QF, Rome - F, RG - SF
That's quite optimistic and means 3000 points 800 ahead of Federer which he can easily make back in the 2nd half of the season.
What Fed's gotta worry about most with regards to YE#1 is a resurgent Murrovic, both of whom can sweep up easy points at the likes of Canada, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris etc at the end of the season
The only guy who has any chance of surpassing that is Nadal -
Say he gets MC - W, Barcelona - W, Madrid - QF, Rome - F, RG - SF
That's quite optimistic and means 3000 points 800 ahead of Federer which he can easily make back in the 2nd half of the season.
What Fed's gotta worry about most with regards to YE#1 is a resurgent Murrovic, both of whom can sweep up easy points at the likes of Canada, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris etc at the end of the season
I really think he means it when he says he is not worried about YE#1. I think all he wants his to play healthy and be competitive at the top level. Wimbledon is his primary focus. As a fan I would love him to win Monte Carlo &/or Rome (to complete career Golden masters) but I understand completely that that isn't his priority. I DO think he wants to be and remain in the top 4 for seeding reasons though.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Or we could say he gets MC - W, Barcelona - W, Madrid - QF, Rome - F, RG - F, as he is one of the best 3 clay players right now, if not the best. One QF exit, say he has an off day or something, is smart, though.
I say that's realistic- yours is even conservative- as it pencils him in for a SF in RG instead of a F or W.
But then again, a resurgent Murrovic can make up huge ground on clay and make the Federer lead quite small after RG- if Djokovic or Murray win a Masters and RG, for instance, that's 3000 points. Murray would then have 3840, Djokovic would have 3475. Assuming they make it far in the other clay tournaments as well, say a SF and QF for each, that gives another 540 points- putting Murray at 4380 (compared to Fed's 4405 if he makes RG QF) and Djokovic at 4015- within striking distance of Fed.
Don't count out Murrovic on clay, nor Rafa on grass/hard. Rafa did well these last 3 months, and if he replicates that at the end of the year, has an average grass season, and is insane on clay, he may get that #1 place again.
I believe it too when he says that.
I also think YE#1 would come naturally if he keeps his form up. Needs to win Cincy 1000, minimum W or USO F and SF in the other = 1200 + 720 Stuttgart 250 + Halle 500 would help that's about 3670 so roughly 7670.
Then just needs another 2000 or so from the end of the season. Could make Shanghai F or win it for 600 or 1000. Win Basel - 500. WTF F 800-1200. That's another 1900-2700 so imo YE#1 is definitely manageble if he plays his natural schedule.
The reason i pencilled Nadal for RG SF is his seeding means he could face in the SF and id favour stan at the moment.
Wouldn't count out Murrovic on clay. My hope is they win 1 masters each maximum and have a couple of early exits. My favourite is actually djokovic I think his decline has been exaggerated a little. He played good stuff in Doha and vs Del Potro just got owned by big serving NK. Clay should suit him better.
At the moment Djokovic and Murray are the best clay players based on last season. Rafa should be strong though based on his good start to the season and his decent 2016 clay level.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
This seems like an open year- no? Another 2014?
Looking forward to it!
donquijote
G.O.A.T.
He knows that he has a chance at FO with a healthy body. He will use the earlier rounds to warm up. If he loses in the first week, he will still stay healthy and have plenty of time to prepare for W. I have trust in his genius.
Yep! And now I have tennistv can't waitThis seems like an open year- no? Another 2014?
Tennis_Hands
Banned
I agree with you about his priorities, but one has to understand that he has to make the most of the situation.
He is going to play some tennis outside of the Majors anyway, so he has to make wise choices, if that would also allow him to be within a striking distance from the YE#1.
Madrid is one tournament that gives him advantage relatively speaking. The points there are not "free", but are as close as "free" that he can get (barring grass and maybe Ohio). I am afraid that this is a sign that he either severely overplayed (which is understandable) or his injuries are bothering him still (it is to be expected that they will manifest themselves at that age and on that level).
I think that people are overly optimistic about his chances at the Majors as well. He is still almost 36 and that ain't going away and also has his share of health issues that might kick in at any moment to take down even his more efficient recent style. He is not going to keep winning. He needs a lot of things to fall in their place to achieve that and that is not going to happen very often from now on. Sadly, not everything is "on his racquet" anymore.
I understand why you are saying this.
Still doesn't sit well with my thinking as I don't subscribe under the idea that he needs much match practice to be at his best at RG at this point of his career.
Last edited:
ncgator
Rookie
Looks like Federer agrees with my assessment given his Murray pre-match interview last night: "Next target is Wimbledon, then US Open. Roland Garros will be difficult to win, there I can play again without pressure and we will see'."
Vanilla Slice
Professional
What does Federer want?
It's obvious that at this point in his life/career, Federer has rightfully chosen to pursue a grand slam or two over the #1 or YE#1 ranking.
Think about it ...
Becoming number one is a state of being, but it is not a moment or an emotional burst of joy at overcoming a half decade (or 8 years) of coming up just short.
Federer knows that when he wins the last point of Wimbledon or the US Open that all those emotions he remembers from The Centre Court's and Arthur Ashe's of the last 15 years will come rushing back to him like they did for him in Melbourne. If or when he hoists these cups, Federer will cherish that moment for an eternity, more so then competing at 2017 Madrid or Rome to pick up 180 points that gave him the YE#1.
It Not Only Tells Time, It Tells History
It's obvious that at this point in his life/career, Federer has rightfully chosen to pursue a grand slam or two over the #1 or YE#1 ranking.
Think about it ...
Becoming number one is a state of being, but it is not a moment or an emotional burst of joy at overcoming a half decade (or 8 years) of coming up just short.
Federer knows that when he wins the last point of Wimbledon or the US Open that all those emotions he remembers from The Centre Court's and Arthur Ashe's of the last 15 years will come rushing back to him like they did for him in Melbourne. If or when he hoists these cups, Federer will cherish that moment for an eternity, more so then competing at 2017 Madrid or Rome to pick up 180 points that gave him the YE#1.
It Not Only Tells Time, It Tells History
thomasferrett
Hall of Fame
Playing Bill Gates on hardcourt is the ultimate preparation for the French Open.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
The far worse choice is Murray, who just played an exo on indoor HC and is not skipping the clay like Roger is. Muzz is playing in MC in a few days, Roger won't play competitively on the clay for another 7 weeks.
That person is absolutely obsessed with Thiem, and is none too subtle about it.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Wasn't Muzziah supposed to be resting up to 6 weeks? So he should be skipping MC.
Backspin1183
Talk Tennis Guru
Good for him and tennis. The longer he plays on the tour, the better for everyone.
It's also good that Nadal has been given an opportunity to lead the race ahead of RG.
It's also good that Nadal has been given an opportunity to lead the race ahead of RG.
Meles
Bionic Poster
My sense is its a little too early for Thiem to win RG this year, but he could do it if he mows through draw without losing many sets until near the end.
We'll soon see how everyone is doing next week, but Thiem needs to first accomplish not losing many sets at M1000 level. Fed? It's even in the headlines, Dominic Thiem could continue to be a real problem for Roger Federer
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/roger-federer-dominic-thiem-loss-stuttgart-mercedes-cup-italian-open
Don't believe it? Fed had this to say after Rome:
"Thiem had completely the upper hand from the baseline so I had to find other ways to win the point."
Thiem definitely favored at RG if he draws Fed.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
My sense is its a little too early for Thiem to win RG this year, but he could do it if he mows through draw without losing many sets until near the end.
Fed? It's even in the headlines, Dominic Thiem could continue to be a real problem for Roger Federer
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/roger-federer-dominic-thiem-loss-stuttgart-mercedes-cup-italian-open
Don't believe it? Fed had this to say after Rome:
"Thiem had completely the upper hand from the baseline so I had to find other ways to win the point."
Thiem definitely favored at RG if he draws Fed.
Let's see how Thiem does vs Federer in Federer's current form. I do think however on clay that a guy like Thiem may have a shot at beating Federer. We'll have to see how motivated Federer is at the FO this year. Right now it looks like Federer's priorities are Wimbledon and the USO.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I think he's got his schedule perfect and he might get antsy and play Madrid.
We hopefully we don't have a clear favorite by RG
Unless its Thiem!
