I've never seen more lopsided odds in a Slam Final

[Lozo1016]

Bet365 has the Women's RG Final odds as
Iga Swiatek -1800 (1/18)
Jasmine Paolini +1000 (10/1)

That would imply that Swiatek has a 91.24% chance of winning while Paolini has just an 8.76% chance of winning.

For context (According to SportsOddsHistory.com):
Iga was -700 in last year's RG Final vs. Muchova
Rafa was -950 in the 2013 RG Final vs. Ferrer

We have certainly seen big upsets in the recent history of slam finals:
Novak was -800 in the 2015 RG Final vs. Wawrinka
Serena was -820 in the 2016 AO Final vs. Kerber

But -1800?? That's an enormous favorite for a slam final. You don't see stuff like that in modern tennis.

 

[BeatlesFan]

But -1800?? That's an enormous favorite for a slam final. You don't see stuff like that in modern tennis.

Modern tennis is generally conceded to be from 1969 on.

1983 Wimbledon final... McEnroe vs. Chris Lewis off the top of my head. Biggest odds in a slam final.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Bet365 has the Women's RG Final odds as
Iga Swiatek -1800 (1/18)
Jasmine Paolini +1000 (10/1)

That would imply that Swiatek has a 91.24% chance of winning while Paolini has just an 8.76% chance of winning.

For context (According to SportsOddsHistory.com):
Iga was -700 in last year's RG Final vs. Muchova
Rafa was -950 in the 2013 RG Final vs. Ferrer

We have certainly seen big upsets in the recent history of slam finals:
Novak was -800 in the 2015 RG Final vs. Wawrinka
Serena was -820 in the 2016 AO Final vs. Kerber

But -1800?? That's an enormous favorite for a slam final. You don't see stuff like that in modern tennis.

-1800 for a best of 3 match in the finals is absolutely crazy. I’ve never seen anything like it.

 

[Mike Sams]

Put $1000 on Paolini to win more than 3 games.

 

[Lauren_Girl']

Bet365 has the Women's RG Final odds as
Iga Swiatek -1800 (1/18)
Jasmine Paolini +1000 (10/1)

That would imply that Swiatek has a 91.24% chance of winning while Paolini has just an 8.76% chance of winning.

For context (According to SportsOddsHistory.com):
Iga was -700 in last year's RG Final vs. Muchova
Rafa was -950 in the 2013 RG Final vs. Ferrer

We have certainly seen big upsets in the recent history of slam finals:
Novak was -800 in the 2015 RG Final vs. Wawrinka
Serena was -820 in the 2016 AO Final vs. Kerber

But -1800?? That's an enormous favorite for a slam final. You don't see stuff like that in modern tennis.

9% is pretty optimistic for Paolini. I'd give her less than 2%. Only an injury can stop Swiatek from winning this.

 

[inflation_era]

What about Djokovic vs. Ruud at FO2023? Must have been -5000 in that match.

 

[Moose Malloy]

I'm sure Graf was an even bigger favorite vs Zvereva in '88 and Sanchez in '89. She was like 10 times more dominant than Swiatek. Most commentators expected her to win the Calendar Slam easily in both of those years after the AO. She was 72-3 in '88, losing only 11 sets that entire year. In '89 she was 86-2, again only losing 11 sets. Swiatek has already lost 4 matches and 13 sets this year.

 

[Moose Malloy]

-1800 for a best of 3 match is absolutely crazy. I’ve never seen anything like it.

This guy had to have much worse odds than that...

Thrust into the elite 32-player field as a wildcard, the teenage Qatari was banished 6-0 6-0 in just 37 minutes by the reigning Wimbledon champion.

Describing the merciless flogging as a "fantastic experience", world 2099th Zayed cobbled together a scant 17 points as Murray went through the motions with detached indifference.

Frustrated by the lack of competition, world No 4 Murray strolled out to the practice court to hit for another 30 minutes.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/after-a-mere-37-minutes-and-24-seconds-andy-murray-routs-opponent-with-double-bagel-win/news-story/8e68953cbc8e9b5498d0cd940b20a82bhttps://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/after-a-mere-37-minutes-and-24-seconds-andy-murray-routs-opponent-with-double-bagel-win/news-story/8e68953cbc8e9b5498d0cd940b20a82b

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Detached indifference.

 

[ghostofMecir]

This guy had to have much worse odds than that...

https://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/after-a-mere-37-minutes-and-24-seconds-andy-murray-routs-opponent-with-double-bagel-win/news-story/8e68953cbc8e9b5498d0cd940b20a82bhttps://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/after-a-mere-37-minutes-and-24-seconds-andy-murray-routs-opponent-with-double-bagel-win/news-story/8e68953cbc8e9b5498d0cd940b20a82b

Yes, but I meant in a finals. Djoko was -6000 at IW in his first match.

 

[ghostofMecir]

What about Djokovic vs. Ruud at FO2023? Must have been -5000 in that match.

He was between -475 and -500 and that’s also a best of 5 match which have lower odds as upsets are less likely in best of 5.

 

[Nate7-5]

Automatic tenner on Jasmine

 

[Dominic & Andrey]

This could be the most lopsided final since Graf vs Zvereva. Paolini is a very consistent baseliner without massive weapons who make you play tons of balls. Bad matchup on clay for big flat hitters, which is why she managed to beat Ryba in the QF (Elena ended up drowning in her own UEs). But this is typically the type of opponents that Iga loves playing. If Iga peaks for the final, I am afraid the Italian will be utterly destroyed. The odds make sense to me.
Look at Iga vs Vondrousova in the QF, Vondrousova didn't play that badly in the first set, she was just too passive to hurt Iga in the rallies, she struggled to win points, got bageled in the first set. Marketa played close to her best on clay in the second set, she won two games.

 

[fedfan24]

Put $1000 on Paolini to win more than 3 games.

Over 14.5 games is currently 1/8 odds. Bet £800 for an easy £100 profit. You’d only need Paolini to win 3 games.

 

[Pheasant]

Paolini won't win more than 4 games. I'd say that a good over/under is 3. And I'd be tempted to take the under.

 

[fedfan24]

Paolini won't win more than 4 games. I'd say that a good over/under is 3. And I'd be tempted to take the under.

Under 3 happened twice in 6 matches so far. Could happen again.

9/2 odds so for £20 you’d win £90 profit.

 

[LuckyR]

People.

Oddsmakers don't use odds to accurately predict outcomes, they set odds to try to get the number of bettors roughly equivalent on both sides/players.

 

[Federev]

Bet365 has the Women's RG Final odds as
Iga Swiatek -1800 (1/18)
Jasmine Paolini +1000 (10/1)

That would imply that Swiatek has a 91.24% chance of winning while Paolini has just an 8.76% chance of winning.

For context (According to SportsOddsHistory.com):
Iga was -700 in last year's RG Final vs. Muchova
Rafa was -950 in the 2013 RG Final vs. Ferrer

We have certainly seen big upsets in the recent history of slam finals:
Novak was -800 in the 2015 RG Final vs. Wawrinka
Serena was -820 in the 2016 AO Final vs. Kerber

But -1800?? That's an enormous favorite for a slam final. You don't see stuff like that in modern tennis.

I bet the odds are even greater that the match will be really boring.

(Sorry).

 

[nam416]

Detached indifference.

It's a Scot thing, you would not understand.

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

People.

Oddsmakers don't use odds to accurately predict outcomes, they set odds to try to get the number of bettors roughly equivalent on both sides/players.

Correct. And Rudd was only a -120 favorite after Djoker beat Cerundolo and announced at post match press conference that he might not play QF.

The odds were posted so I assume bets were taken. It was an easy win for those that took Ruud. Djoker withdrew the next day but presumably all bets are honored for a walkover.

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

Never heard of Paolini but you do not get to a Final without skills and beating quality players. She beat #4 Rybakina.


Would be wise to check how many breadsticks Iga has issued and what is her pattern.

Some players are ruthless and show no mercy while others mentally let up and donate some games.

Would strongly lean towards Pailiuni winning three games.

And yes it is a pathetic reflection of the state of the WTA that the Final is so lopsided. What a disgrace.