IW 2011 F: [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. [3] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

How will the Nadal-Djokovic turn out?


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Just like those who say Sod would not have beaten a healthy Nadal on clay, and so it goes Nadal would not have beaten a monster djoker like this at the USO.
 
Match can be summed up like this:

Nadal with a first serve - going toe to toe with Djoker.
Nadal without a first serve - getting blown off the court.

Very weird performance by Rafa, especially since this is a final and after he won the first set. To quote so many around here, it's like the wheels "fell off". I didn't think I'd see the day when Rafa lived or died by his serve.
 
the "wheels fell off" because djokos return is too good.nads serves......joker hits it back........nadal tries to serve a bit better..........joker hits it back......next thing you know nads is serving himself out of the match...its called pressure,and novak is just too solid on return and thats why he hasnt lost a match this year.i wonder how long till hes number 1????????
 
Well I didn't watch this tournament at all because I was away but I was surprised that Rafa made it to the finals as he has not played a lot for some time anyway - well done Djoko
 
the "wheels fell off" because djokos return is too good.nads serves......joker hits it back........nadal tries to serve a bit better..........joker hits it back......next thing you know nads is serving himself out of the match...its called pressure,and novak is just too solid on return and thats why he hasnt lost a match this year.i wonder how long till hes number 1????????

That's when Djoko had something firm to return. From the middle of the second set onwards Nadal served at 40 something percent first serve(pathetic for any pro let alone a guy in a final) and at one point he was in the 20's in terms of first serve percentage :oops:

2nd and third set are Nadal imploding from his lack of serve and Djoker teeing off on Nadal second serves, controlling the rallies, which he rarely did beforehand.
 
Gasquet said Nole is the best server he had ever seen. I think Nole wear Nadal down with his ability to return. Every serve is right back in play. At the beginning, Nole had to adjust to a Nadal's lefty. Once he was comfortable, he had no problem with Nadal's serve. It doesn't matter if it's a 1st or 2nd serve, Nole is going to get it back.
 
I thought Spider was just a Murray fanboy till now, but now I realise he's just a 10 year old or so kid who has just begun to follow tennis !
 
Pls can someone tell newbies that there are better ways to get the post count up? e.g insightful posts, thoughtful questions, informative links, relevant posts etc..
 
Match can be summed up like this:

Nadal with a first serve - going toe to toe with Djoker.
Nadal without a first serve - getting blown off the court.

Very weird performance by Rafa, especially since this is a final and after he won the first set. To quote so many around here, it's like the wheels "fell off". I didn't think I'd see the day when Rafa lived or died by his serve.

Nadal in the 1st set was only ~ 50%. He had a few big 1st serves, but he actually had a higher 2nd serve w% in the 1st set. Nadal lived mostly with his ground game in this match, but he died with the serve.
 
Nadal in the 1st set was only ~ 50%. He had a few big 1st serves, but he actually had a higher 2nd serve w% in the 1st set. Nadal lived mostly with his ground game in this match, but he died with the serve.

50% is still better than 20 something first serve like he had at one point. Novak wasn't too hot on serve in the first set either(made just ONE first serve in the game that he was broken in) but it was bearable.

I think it's somewhat ironic that Rafa feeds off his new serve so much, mentally I mean. The guy knows that without a powerful consistent delivery of first serves his game is mincemeat against guys that can hit him off court and if his serve dies down, his confidence in other areas of his game starts to dwindle. Jesus, look how many errors he made from the second set onwards. And Novak was way more comfortable killing off second serves(Novak has an amazing return IMO) and controlling rallies from then on.

I am a fan of both these guys so I'm not that bummed about Nadal's loss but Nadal's amazingly bad serving kinda killed this match for me. No pro can win against a top five'er in a final when he serves so badly, let alone against the best tennis player of 2011.

If I didn't know Nadal and Nole I'd think this was a fixed match or something.
 
Does anyone think that playing BOTH singles and doubles, and going deep into them. may have hampered Nadal's serve and his intensity.

As I said before this match reminded me of Nadal's losses in Doha, IW and Miami last year. In all of those matches he came FIRING and won the 1st set and was the better player. Then the wheels fell off.

It seems to me that Nadal needs to play out of his comfort zone and maintain a very high intensity in hard court matches. When he over-plays he often has problems. Same thing happened in Doha earlier this year when he continued with the doubles. Ditto here.
Clearly he needs more time off and a less intensive schedule.

Anyway, this was one of the weirdest losses I've ever seen from Nadal together with the worst serving performance in his career. His body language was even worse than it was during his post injury days. By the end of the 3rd set - he was like screw it, I can't get anything in, I'm outta here. Not a very encouraging sign going forward.

Let's hope he doesn't revert back the grip change to his spinny serves, and also that this serving problem is not chronic. There've been experts who say that the unnatural motion of Nadal's serve will take it's toll, and he will ultimately lose it's consistency completely.
 
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It seems to me that Nadal needs to play out of his comfort zone and maintain a very high intensity in hard court matches.

And we have a winner.

Rafa needs to play very good tennis to beat anyone of note on HC and if his level drops just a bit or has physical issues he is toast. Nadal's reliance on his new serve has fried his HC circuit :). I mean, I've seen Nadal take some great beatings on HC but he looked to be in there mentally until the very end. After he failed to break Novak in that long game in the second set, EVERYTHING in his game deflated, forehand,BH,SERVE. Hell, if Djoker would have forced the issue more I'm sure he could have bageled Rafa i nthe third.

Since USO 2010, Rafa looks to his serve on HC for mental reassurance. I felt he served amazing in Bangkok(even though he didn't win on account of missing most of his 26 BP's against GGL whereas GGL converted his single BP), very good in Tokio and consistent in WTF. And it's no wonder he made SF,W,F in those events.

I'm not sure if I prefer this Rafa on HC to the one that was getting spanked left right but who tried and tried. This "new"Rafa sees that he can't buy a first serve and gets deflated mentally.

I think it's bad cause this was a potential classic match. I though the first set was above average and the second looked to be as tight as the first but then we were left with only one player on court. I remember thinking to myself when Novak got broken in the first(what the hell is he doing - made only ONE first serve in that long game), man this is some bad serving on djoker's part. Then I saw Rafa for most of the second and third and I though "well Djoker didn't so bad". I mean seriously, there was a stretch when Rafa missed 11 first serves :(
 
I am not worried at all about the result. Djokovic has always been a threat to Nadal on hard courts, he leads him 8-5 now lifetime on hard courts, so hardly a bad defeat. As long as Nadal keeps dominant over Djokovic on grass and clay, and it remains that both guys can beat the other one on hard courts as has been the case for years, he is in absolutely great shape. If he starts losing to Djokovic on clay or grass, or starts losing every match on hard courts, is when it is time to worry.
 
They aren't performing unusually for 24 year olds. We're just spoiled by Federer's lack of injuries during his prime and essentially not whining about anything, unlike these guys.

Federer not whining about anything???

Have you seen any of his press conferences after a match he lost?

Nowdays he got used to losing, but two-three years ago, he was all about excuses ...
 
I am not worried at all about the result. Djokovic has always been a threat to Nadal on hard courts, he leads him 8-5 now lifetime on hard courts, so hardly a bad defeat. As long as Nadal keeps dominant over Djokovic on grass and clay, and it remains that both guys can beat the other one on hard courts as has been the case for years, he is in absolutely great shape. If he starts losing to Djokovic on clay or grass, or starts losing every match on hard courts, is when it is time to worry.

The thing is Djokovic was NOT much better than Nadal in this match. I mean I recall matches from 2007 to 2009 when Nadal was spanked on hardcourts by a bunch of people. Djokovic delivered straight-set beatdowns to Nadal on hardcourts even when Rafa was #1 and playing great.

Now, however, Nadal has the weapons on hardcourts which include a big serve and hard flat forehands. He is more than capable of beating the best on hards, but for some reason he cannot maintain his intensity.

As namelessone says above, the match was almost comical. 1st set- Nadal is hitting 95 mph+ groundies from both wings, 130 mph first serves and destroying Novak off court. This was in some ways like the UsOpen final.

First set stat: Nadal's NET clearance is 10% less then Djokovic's. Meaning Nadal is hitting flat, is offensive and is dictating play. Looked like the match would be a straight setter.

Second set and 3rd set: Nadal starts serving at 25%. He misses 11 first serves in a row! I don't think we've ever seen a top 10 pro player do that. Then Nadal's whole games goes off. He has TONS of UFE's can't keep a forehand in court (barely even in the sidelines), he finishes with just TWO winners in the entire set! Then he almost gets bageled in the 3rd set, as his performance worsens and Novak watches him self-destruct Federer style.

Stat: Nadal's net clearance becomes 15% more than Djokovic (in the 2nd/3rd set) as he starts to get defensive and starts moonballing.

So the conclusion is that, unlike the Nadal of old, this Nadal has the tools to beat anyone on hardcourts. But for whatever reason he cannot maintain his game and intensity. Today's serve performance and the meltdown thereoff was shocking to say the least..
 
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...Novak is not even close to Rafa's clay level. It goes Rafa, Robin, Roger, David, then Novak maybe, I mean he lost to ****ing Jurgen Melzer. Come on guys get real

Wow wow wow ... It seems to me that someone forgot who gave the best running to Rafa at clay for his money ... Remember those epic matches in Hamburg and especially Madrid semifinals two years ago?!

That devastating match where Novak should/had win if Rafa wasn't that determined to keep his throne, was unfortunatelly the begginging of the problemes for both of them for the rest of the season. They were so exausted both phisically and mentally ... Rafa the lost his RG title and he needed a lot to recover ... Novak too.

Rafa is the GOAT on clay ... But putting Novak behind Robin and David, even Roger today is pure blindness ...
 
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The thing is Djokovic was NOT much better than Nadal in this match.

I agree which is why I am not worried. Nadal cant win every match he plays. Losing to Djokovic once on hard courts in 3 sets is hardly anything to lose sleep about. As I said as things stand now there is no indication that the overall situation is anything other than:

Nadal > Djokovic on clay
Nadal > Djokovic on grass
Nadal = Djokovic on hard courts

Which is exactly what it was before today as well. And if that is the scenario vs the clear #2 player right now, I am thrilled.
 
Wow wow wow ... It seems to me that someone forgot who gave the best running to Rafa at clay for his money ... Remember those epic matches in Hamburg and especially Madrid finals two years ago?!

That devastating match where Novak should/had win if Rafa wasn't that determined to keep his throne, was unfortunatelly the begginging of the problemes for both of them for the rest of the season. They were so exausted both phisically and mentally ... Rafa the lost his RG title and he needed a lot to recover ... Novak too.

Rafa is the GOAT on clay ... But putting Novak behind Robin and David, even Roger today is pure blindness ...

While I sort of suspect Novak to outdo Roger on clay this year, Roger has been clearly above Novak every single year on clay to date. There isnt even one year to date Djokovic has been a better clay courter than Roger. And pushing Nadal on clay or not, he still is 0-9 I think it is vs Nadal on clay. Roger has actually beaten Nadal on clay, as have a few other players. So to say putting him behind Roger on clay is pure blindeless is pure blindless on your part, despite that I would predict Novak to outperform Roger on clay this year for the first time ever.

In fact while I hugely doubt Soderling outdoing Djokovic on any surface this year, fact is even he has clearly been a better clay courter than Novak ever since the 2009 French.
 
I agree which is why I am not worried.

Well I am worried for his future on HC. If he is so dependent on his serve, can't see many HC wins for him at this rate. Djoker did not play amazing and yet Nadal imploded after he played absolutely stunning tennis for one set and a bit. Now this wasn't unusual if it were QF or SF stage but I can't remember when I've seen Nadal lose a lead so clearly in a FINAL. Maybe Miami 2005 but then he was playing peak Federer and was still a kid. I think Novak is playing great this year but had Rafa served at least 55-60% 2nd and third set, I think this match would have been his.

No one can get away with serving 25% 2nd set and 40 something overall and still expect to win a final.
 
While I sort of suspect Novak to outdo Roger on clay this year, Roger has been clearly above Novak every single year on clay to date. There isnt even one year to date Djokovic has been a better clay courter than Roger. And pushing Nadal on clay or not, he still is 0-9 I think it is vs Nadal on clay. Roger has actually beaten Nadal on clay, as have a few other players. So to say putting him behind Roger on clay is pure blindeless is pure blindless on your part, despite that I would predict Novak to outperform Roger on clay this year for the first time ever.

In fact while I hugely doubt Soderling outdoing Djokovic on any surface this year, fact is even he has clearly been a better clay courter than Novak ever since the 2009 French.


Let's put it this way ... I'm not saying Djokovic was better than Federer on clay, but I think if he had a chance to play Roger instead of Rafa in the period I mentioned, he would win ...

Novak spent some time wandering, trying to sort some things out, looking for his game. I think that Davis Cup sucess did extremly well for him. He gained a lot of confidence, he got his service back and that was it. He already had great groundstrokes from both sides, as well as the movement ...

When he showed up at the AO2011, I knew he was back on winning track. His bodylanguage and his facial expressions can tell a lot. Than he just used the momentum ...


Anyway, I don't think he will be able to win Miami as well. These days, comeptition is really great and players are spending much more energy. I would be satisfied if he reaches QF.

But I do expect he will be the main threat to Rafa on clay, although I don't see he can upset him ... Not yet ...
 
All in all, although I'm as much Novak's fan as Yoda is and I wish his success as Spider predicts, veroniquem has the closest opinion to mine.

One thing is sure, this season will be hot. Novak is here, Rafa by default and I'm sure Roger has few more words to tell too. And let's not forget Del Potro, Soderling, Conga and up and coming Raonic, then Harrisson in the years to come ...
 
But I do expect he will be the main threat to Rafa on clay, although I don't see he can upset him ... Not yet ...

Djoker's problem on clay is that even if Nadal has the worst serving day of his life(as yesterday), he can still rally like nobody's business and opponents won't find it as easy to exploit second serves. You saw how Rafa played Djoker in the first set? Well, those balls will have even more action on them as they bounce of the clay and Rafa will be able to get even more of them back. Sure, Novak isn't that far away from beating Rafa in a three setter(almagro and gulbis of all people nearly did that in 2010) on clay but in RG I doubt his chances.

Nadal on HC is a very strange creature. He can adapt and win but he doesn't feel at home. On clay he is a fish in water. I think he will start to lose this year or next year in three setters on clay but I think he will keep winning RG 1-2 years at least.
 
Nadal gained 240 points in IW.

Yeah he is looking good for defence and Miami is also a court that's decent for Rafa's game so hopefully he can defend his SF. I remember last year it was like watching two guys playing on sandpaper.

Anyway, clay + grass is where it's at for Rafa this year, as always.
 
Yeah he is looking good for defence and Miami is also a court that's decent for Rafa's game so hopefully he can defend his SF. I remember last year it was like watching two guys playing on sandpaper.

Anyway, clay + grass is where it's at for Rafa this year, as always.

Im sure order will be restored in Monte Carlo, like it has been the past 6 years.
 
The only good thing about this match was seeing Rafa standing inside the court to return Novak's second serves (at least in the first set).
Very unusual from him, but very nice to see.
I remember many matches where he would stand even further behind the baseline to receive second serves than to receive first serves.
 
I only saw the first set and thought Rafa had it in the bag - maximum kudos to Novak - what a tear this guys is on!
 
The only good thing about this match was seeing Rafa standing inside the court to return Novak's second serves (at least in the first set).
Very unusual from him, but very nice to see.
I remember many matches where he would stand even further behind the baseline to receive second serves than to receive first serves.

Problem with that tactic is when he starts to lose confidence he ends up missing aload of second serve returns and then eventually he went and stood further back.
 
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Yeah he is looking good for defence and Miami is also a court that's decent for Rafa's game so hopefully he can defend his SF. I remember last year it was like watching two guys playing on sandpaper.

Anyway, clay + grass is where it's at for Rafa this year, as always.

Yes, but Djokovic (and Federer) also gained a good amount of points in Indian Wells, and Nadal is the one who will be defending the most points between Monte Carlo and the US Open. But it's true that Nadal usually plays his best on clay and that he has an excellent record at Wimbledon since 2006.

Nadal's last tournament win was in Tokyo in early October 2010. It's unusual for a top player to go so long without winning a title, but Nadal is exceptional in that respect. It has happened to him before.
 
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I wonder if Rafa's serve wasn't on his mind because it essentially was the reason for the loss of his doubles match with his good buddy, Marc. At the end of the first set, Rafa and Marc could've stayed on course except that Rafa double-faulted on a key point...the set was gone. His poor serving in the second set was also a problem. Mind you, Marc's serve wasn't especially great, either, but Rafa knows that of the two, HE should've been able to come through.

When I saw how he played in doubles, I felt a bit of an ominous feeling about his next match.
 
Nadal's last tournament win was in Tokyo in early October 2010. It's unusual for a top player to go so long without winning a title, but Nadal is exceptional in that respect. It has happened to him before.

He only played 5 tournaments since then.
 
Nadal's last tournament win was in Tokyo in early October 2010. It's unusual for a top player to go so long without winning a title, but Nadal is exceptional in that respect. It has happened to him before.

But how many tourneys has he played since?

He lost in Shanghai early being very tired(third consecutive HC tourney) to a on fire melzer.

Didn't play Paris.

Made finals in WTF on the crappiest surface I have ever seen, losing to on fire Federer.

Lost in Doha to his worst matchup, Davydenko, while having the flu to boot(got bageled by lacko lol).

Got injured in the third game of the AO QF and was dead in the water against Ferrer.

Lost in IW finals to Djoker after having the worst serve breakdown I have ever seen from him.

So to conclude, in those SIX MONTHS since Tokio he played 5 tourneys so it looks worse than it is.

And he had decent results, 3R,F,SF,QF,F, two of those losses being at least in part influenced by illness/injury.

It's like with the "11 months without a title" crowd from last year. It doesn't matter in what span of time you win(or not) but that you win some and get deep enough in the rest of the tourneys. Case in point: Nadal of 2009. His form was not that good yet only Djokovic made more top tourney SF appearances than him in the second part of that year.

Nadal's review of the year lies on the natural surfaces part of the season. HC hardly has any major or lasting effect on his season. He's been a top player for six season now but HC titles are only a small part of his resume.
 
I can't remember seeing Nadal getting dominated like that in that third set. A lot of it was self inflicted will all those UEs, and the horrible first serve percentage, but Djokovic was dominating Nadal from the baseline, something that almost never happens against Nadal.

Djokovic is hands down the best player in the world right now.
 
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He lost in Shanghai early being very tired(third consecutive HC tourney) to a on fire melzer.

excuse one?

Made finals in WTF on the crappiest surface I have ever seen, losing to on fire Federer.

Excuse 2

Lost in Doha to his worst matchup, Davydenko, while having the flu to boot(got bageled by lacko lol).

there goes the 4th

Got injured in the third game of the AO QF and was dead in the water against Ferrer.

5th for the pleasure of it!!

Lost in IW finals to Djoker after having the worst serve breakdown I have ever seen from him.

and the grand finale, like a orgasm....
 
77 pages??? I left yesterday and it had 50. Why are people still arguing. Nadal lost, Djokovic won end of. The better player won enough with the excuses.
 
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