Jannik Sinner 2024 vs. Novak Djokovic 2011 on HC: has the Sinner already surpassed Djokovic peak on HC?
- Thread starter weakera
- Start date
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Wasn't Djokovic's 2015 better than his 2011?
He won both the AO & USO, the WTF, Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai and Paris along with Beijing 500.
8 hard court titles all up.
He won both the AO & USO, the WTF, Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai and Paris along with Beijing 500.
8 hard court titles all up.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
Good point, I defaulted to 2011 but 2015 is a good question too. It looks like Djokovic has the 1 more title but a worse record and more straight set losses (3), so that's also a great debate.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Don't worry, I would've gone straight to 2011 but found it shocking that Sinner somehow beat his accomplishments and assumed there'd be a year where Novak did better and alas, I found 2015.
The only difference is the the record with Novak at 59-5 (92.2%) but I think people would rather Djokovic's 2015 over Sinner's 2024:
Djokovic's 2015: AO, Indian Wells, Miami, USO, Beijing 500, Shanghai, Paris and WTF (2 slams, 4 Masters (including the Sunshine double), WTF & 1 500)
Sinners 2024: AO, Rotterdam 500, Miami, Cincy, USO, Shanghai, WTF (2 slams, 3 Masters, WTF & 1 500).
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
Yeah the only true argument for Sinner in that scenario is the dominance factor where no one straight setted him, whereas in 2015, an old Federer handled Djokovic easily a couple of times on hard courts.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Fair point. I know this isn't Sinner's fault but I can't help but compare the competition.
For Sinner to win his WTF this year he had to beat
De Minaur
Fritz x 2
Medvedev
Ruud
For Djokovic to win his WTF he had to beat
Nishikori
Berdych
Nadal
Federer x2 (one of which he lost in the RR but beat him in the Final)
Djoko having to beat Nadal and Fed at the same WTF while Sinner's best opponent was Medvedev has me going EHH. Again not his fault but I can't declare that dominant in history compared to Novak's year.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
That's a fair argument but most people will just look at the numbers. That's how it generally works anyway.
If Sinner can solve Alcaraz, he has a decent chance to put Djokovic in his rearview mirror and challenge Federer's 2005 on HC.
Lleytonstation
Bionic Poster
To be fair, sinner has no real HC competition. Like none.Jannik Sinner 2024
Record: 54-3 (94.7%)
Grand Slams: 2
Titles: 7
ATP Finals: W
Losses with 0 sets won: 0
Novak Djokovic 2011
Record: 46-5 (90.1%)
Grand Slams: 2
Titles: 6
ATP Finals: RR
Losses with 0 sets won: 3
Djoker had so many to deal with.
Neptune
Hall of Fame
Maybe compare to peak Rafa or Lendl or Agassi or Pete or Fed first, just to name a few, lol.
Some of the Big4 will be passed (already?) by Sinner quickly?
Some of the Big4 will be passed (already?) by Sinner quickly?
HC | vs Top5 | T5 Weight | vs Top10 | T10 Weight | vs T11+ | T11+ Weight | vs All |
Nole | 135 (89-46) 65.93% | 16.11% | 259 (191-68) 73.75% | 30.91% | 579 (518-61) 89.46% | 69.09% | 838 (709-129) 84.61% |
Fed | 120 (75-45) 62.50% | 12.78% | 240 (162-78) 67.50% | 25.56% | 699 (621-78) 88.84% | 74.44% | 939 (783-156) 83.39% |
Rafa | 73 (30-43) 41.10% | 10.91% | 150 (75-75) 50.00% | 22.42% | 519 (443-76) 85.36% | 77.58% | 669 (518-151) 77.43% |
Murray | 92 (42-50) 45.65% | 13.53% | 148 (81-67) 54.73% | 21.76% | 532 (422-110) 79.32% | 78.24% | 680 (503-177) 73.97% |
Sinner | 34 (21-13) 61.76% | 14.35% | 48 (31-17) 64.58% | 20.25% | 189 (157-32) 83.07% | 79.75% | 237 (188-49) 79.32% |
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Peak Fed is the best ever on HCs.
Dominic & Andrey
Legend
Novak had a letdown during the fall of 2011. I know he lost against Nishikori in Basel, and there are probably some other losses for him around that time. Sinner retaining his hunger for titles after winning in New York is an outstanding feat (if we ignore the doping case).
NatF
Bionic Poster
roysid
Legend
Another provocative thread. This time selectively taking hard court results of Sinner 2024 and Djokovic 2011.
So selectively removing the grass and clay comparision where djokovic was obviously better.
Djokovic 2015 and Federer 2006 was much better in terms of results on hard courts
But Djokovic 2011 and Federer 2005 to some extent was magical. THe level of play and dominance shown was unprecedented
So selectively removing the grass and clay comparision where djokovic was obviously better.
Djokovic 2015 and Federer 2006 was much better in terms of results on hard courts
But Djokovic 2011 and Federer 2005 to some extent was magical. THe level of play and dominance shown was unprecedented
most fun year of all time.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Sinner takes this. Not by level which I think may be closer than most think, but by achievements.
I thought before USO itself that sinner was reaching the top level on hc thinking sinner 2024 beats Nadal 2011.
Djokovic beat Nadal in 2011. They are similar level on hc.
I thought before USO itself that sinner was reaching the top level on hc thinking sinner 2024 beats Nadal 2011.
Djokovic beat Nadal in 2011. They are similar level on hc.
TearTheRoofOff
G.O.A.T.
Peak is overrated.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Sinner lacked the GOAT returning that 2011 Djokovic did.
Games won % on hc.
Djokovic 2011 - 63.8
Sinner 2024 - 61.8
Bagelling opponents on hc in the year
Djokovic 13
Sinner 4
So while sinner never lost a match with 0 sets lost, he was less dominant than Nole. Nole is almost 10% higher on breaks on hc in that year. It's otherworldly.
Games won % on hc.
Djokovic 2011 - 63.8
Sinner 2024 - 61.8
Bagelling opponents on hc in the year
Djokovic 13
Sinner 4
So while sinner never lost a match with 0 sets lost, he was less dominant than Nole. Nole is almost 10% higher on breaks on hc in that year. It's otherworldly.
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
Missed Sinner at Wim and FO
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
That doesn't count on hard court Brilliance.
At most what I can say is Djokovic played all big hard court tournaments even when not at his best and Sinner did not. Sinner played 1 extra 500 tournament instead. This is a pattern with Jannik that he skips a tournament when he doesn't feel 100%.
Mc, Shanghai last year
Madrid Rome Olympics and Paris this year.
So his % may be higher like 2004-06 fed but his actual big wins become lower. Djokovic has more top 10 wins in his 1 slam seasons like 2012 and 2013 than Sinner has in 2 slams years. If Sinner decided to not skip tournaments this year, he would likely add 1 more loss in Paris at the least.
inflation_era
Professional
Oh, so now competition matters, LOLLLLLL
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
| Years | Federer 2004 | Federer 2005 | Federer 2006 | Federer 2007 | Djokovic 2011 | Nadal 2013 | Djokovic 2012 | Djokovic 2013 | Djokovic 2015 | Djokovic 2016 | Murray 2016 | Federer 2017 | Djokovic 2023 | Sinner 2024 |
| Slams | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Slam Finals | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| ATP finals | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Masters | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Masters finals | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Big Titles | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Titles | 7 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Points | 8680 | 8300 | 11130 | 8780 | 8800 | 7100 | 9300 | 8850 | 11480 | 8250 | 6950 | 7200 | 7750 | 9750 |
| Win | 47 | 50 | 59 | 44 | 52 | 36 | 50 | 53 | 60 | 48 | 48 | 40 | 38 | 53 |
| Win % | 92 | 98 | 97 | 88 | 90 | 90 | 91 | 91 | 92 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 93 | 95 |
| Top 10 H2H | 14 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| Top 5 H2H | 9 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 11 |
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zakopinjo
Professional
Yes, what Federer lacked in 2004-2006
inflation_era
Professional
What Fed lacked then is nothing compared to what Djokovic lacked after his 30s.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Roger Overperforms in 2005 but his competition is absent.
Djokovic underperforms in 2012/13 but his competition is massive.
Sinner has pretty good competition this year. He won 6 big titles.
I think its just below Djokovic 2015, Federer 2006 at Hard court years.
Djokovic underperforms in 2012/13 but his competition is massive.
Sinner has pretty good competition this year. He won 6 big titles.
I think its just below Djokovic 2015, Federer 2006 at Hard court years.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
WRONG
Competition always mattered. Unlike spineless fed fans, we said last few years competition was weaker than during Nole's 20s.
The competition always matter. And when considering Fed has weaker years in his 20s and Nole in his 30s, Nole is still GOAT. Are you okay? Its just Tuesday brother, 4 more days to go SMH
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
And unlike some overzealous Sinner fans, who think he can improve even on this, I think Sinner has reached almost maximum on reaching excellence on HC in a year. He won 6 big titles, a number only exceeded by Fed 2006 and Nole 2015. These two are top 4 seasons in open era.
So Sinner may have to match them to even be close to say surpassing their peak. Then Djokovic has 2 more finals and bucketloads of top 10/5 wins that year.
If Sinner gets to 8 big titles won, even if Olympics year, then fine, Sinner has surpassed even Djokovic on HC peak. I think more likely next year he does not get to 6. Some new guy will always come, or Sinner will get better on clay to play far deeper like Fedkovic and then he would be bound to withdraw/lose on hc.
So Sinner may have to match them to even be close to say surpassing their peak. Then Djokovic has 2 more finals and bucketloads of top 10/5 wins that year.
If Sinner gets to 8 big titles won, even if Olympics year, then fine, Sinner has surpassed even Djokovic on HC peak. I think more likely next year he does not get to 6. Some new guy will always come, or Sinner will get better on clay to play far deeper like Fedkovic and then he would be bound to withdraw/lose on hc.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Fed 2017/Nadal 2013 can also be added to this but both didn't even participate in 2 slam finals on HC those years. Nadal simply absent from AO is massive hole. Fed losing in QF is also a loss.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
I need to calculate the points by each year above. Sinner would be below some years of Fedkovic , definitely 2015 and 2006 but he has arrived. He would be easily in top 5 years I think.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
You are right, Sinner is GO24
4 OR 5
NYTennisfan
Hall of Fame
Now put up quality of competition.
Good on Sinner but he had relative cupcake opponents compared to Peak Djokovic. Didn't beat his main rival in one match and didn't even have to beat Zverev in any of them. Djokovic was the one top opponent he beat and Medvedev who had one of his worst years in a long time. No comparison to Peak Djoker
Good on Sinner but he had relative cupcake opponents compared to Peak Djokovic. Didn't beat his main rival in one match and didn't even have to beat Zverev in any of them. Djokovic was the one top opponent he beat and Medvedev who had one of his worst years in a long time. No comparison to Peak Djoker
Sinner though, did not have to play 2011 versions of Federer and Nadal to win his slams or big titles. Still, very impressive year for Sinner-2024
NYTennisfan
Hall of Fame
Now this is going to the other extreme. Sinner is an ATG level talent especially on Hard Courts, he'd be in contention for titles even during Peak 3 era on Hard Courts.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
If we are not dishonest, Sinner can easily be top 5 in 2011. He has everything.
Can he beat Djokovic in USO 2011? I think its even money. Post USO Djokovic was non factor and Fed was there. He can easily be top 5.
To understand where Sinner will end on 2011 season, you need to first be honest with yourself and see who was 5th best in 2011. It was 5'9" David Ferrer.
So it would be delusional to say Sinner won't be top 5 in 2011. I think he can be top 3, right after Nadal or top 2 right between Djokovic and Nadal. Federer and Murray both did not play at their best. Fed results in slams were SF, F, QF, R4.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
That's right. If we see strictly HC Sinner has pushed Djokovic 2011 half a step behind.
But then Sinner has massive hole on G/C this year. Which is why he is around 4000 pts behind Djokovic.
Djokovic won 2 masters and 1 500 on clay in 2011 and 1 slam on grass.
But speaking strictly on HC, Sinner is marginally ahead.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
UTS has a running ELO rankings for top on each surface.
Djokovic was top on HC elo for more than 420 weeks and Roger more than 200 weeks.
Sinner probably has lead HC elo for 40 weeks at least now. Just 380 more weeks to go to catch Nole
Its incredibly long time to go on being best on HC which is very neutral surface. I think Sinner can stay here for at least 2/3 more years consecutively and get closer to Federer's number.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Sorry , I was wrong.
Djokovic was at Hard Elo Number 1 for 530+ weeks as UTS stopped keeping tabs in 2024. That is more than 10 years
Federer 456 weeks. Around 9 years.
Sampras 331 weeks or around 6.5 years.
Agassi 129 weeks or just over 2 years.
Sinner will blow past Agassi , I think that much is surety.
From then on, it becomes very difficult to be among the best of the best.
Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Most Weeks at Hard Elo No. 1
Most Weeks at Hard Elo No. 1 at Ultimate Tennis Statistics
www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com
Djokovic was at Hard Elo Number 1 for 530+ weeks as UTS stopped keeping tabs in 2024. That is more than 10 years
Federer 456 weeks. Around 9 years.
Sampras 331 weeks or around 6.5 years.
Agassi 129 weeks or just over 2 years.
Sinner will blow past Agassi , I think that much is surety.
From then on, it becomes very difficult to be among the best of the best.
zakopinjo
Professional
Ah, David Ferrer is a person who would have 3-4 slams without the existence of the big 3.
As for Sinner, he simply wouldn't be able to make it to the semi-finals of major tournaments because he would be defeated by the members of the big 3 plus Murray, not to mention clay where the competition would be even greater.
I don't see how he could collect points for the top 5. It seems much more realistic that he could go up to 3500 points.(6-7 place)
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Federer won 8 slams, 4 atp finals and 11 masters on HC in 2004 to 2009. 23 big titles. Averaging 4 titles a year
Djokovic won 7 slams, 4 atp finals and 18 masters on HC in 2004 to 2009. 29 big titles. Averaging 5 titles a year.
Sinner has started strong with 6. But that rate will not remain as high.
Djokovic won 7 slams, 4 atp finals and 18 masters on HC in 2004 to 2009. 29 big titles. Averaging 5 titles a year.
Sinner has started strong with 6. But that rate will not remain as high.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
If you think Big 3 are gods then I can't help you. Fed actually lost in R4 in USO not SF.
Fed could lose to freaking Berdych in slam and you think Sinner can not beat him is hilarious. But I think members like that would be very dangerous for ttw in future with nostalgic eyes.
Fed was far from unbeatable in 2011. Same with Murray. Murray lost to Nadal at USO rather meekly. He just like Murray kept his ranking high by beating competition. Not Djokovic at his best or Rafa in first 8 months.
I think Sinner can definitely end the year at 3 because he would be just 23 so unlike Fed who was 29 and selective about peaking, Sinner has chance to do so all year round. The numbers Sinner is putting up this year on HC are top most tier. Andy Murray barely put it for 1 year in 2016 when big 3 were all down. Nadal never put it. Nadal was good in 2013 but he missed AO so that is massive blow.
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