Jannik Sinner 2024 vs. Novak Djokovic 2011 on HC: has the Sinner already surpassed Djokovic peak on HC?

Fed - 11 Wim's and 8 USO's = 19
Djokovic - 4 Wim's and 4 USO's = 8

In the hypothetical scenario. Taking a average.
 
TheFifthSet said:
How do you figure that swapping ages is somehow beneficial to Djoko?

81-born Djokovic with the same trajectory, keeping everything else the same (I always make that qualifier because while it's rly dumb to think they WOULD stay the same, every other hypothetical requires even MORE mental gymnastics) :

'01: ain't beating Hewitt, pre-final Sampras, Agassi and some other floaters would pose a challenge.

'02: ain't beating inspired Sampras, 50-50 to beat either Hewitt or Agassi.

'03: '09 Djokovic was mid at that tournament, isn't beating Roddick.

'04: '10 Djokovic would lose to Agassi, perhaps Hewitt who was fantastic going into the final.

'05: '11 Djokovic wins.

'06: '12 non-Windkovic wins in those conditions.

'07: I give '13 Djokovic 40-50% to win. The Wawa match tired him out a lot, I don't know if he'd get through Isner/Feli/Roddick/Davy/whoever makes it in place of Zygotovic.

'08: '14 Djokovic sucked balls, he isn't winning.

'09: Toss-up, Sod and Dasco won't win but might tire him out a little, I give him favourite status over Delpo but he could lose it.

That amounts to like 3-5 titles. Him and Fed would be lucky to meet even once during that time.

-


Now, Fed:

'01-'09: taking ski trips to the Alps or losing before the QF.

'10: '04 Fed even with the mental scarring can beat '10 Nadal, without it he is the prohibitive favourite, I said what I said.

'11-'14: '05-'08 Fed wins all of these, maybe three at worst.

'15: '09 Fed cruises.

'16: '10 Fed beats '16 Wawrinka.

'17: ‘11 Fed over ‘17 Ned and ‘23 Djoko.

'18: outside shot for '12 Fed to win, maybe 30%

'19-'20: '13 Fed isn't winning, '14 I give a small chance to.

'21: '15 Fed wins easily.


So that's, what, 7-10 titles?
Click to expand...
@NatF
 
Angrybirdstar said:
but this is exactly the Federer vs old Agassi at the USO situation, except Federer didn't struggle with the wind anywhere near as much as Djokovic! and this isn't a matchup issue that exploits the quirks of someone's technical/athletic development, unless you're telling me Djokovic made tradeoffs somewhere that resulted in him being bad in wind (especially when there's a very good comparison across the net in Murray)

surely you recognize that the Nishikori loss is the most glaring and immediately objectionable? also i would buy this argument about the Nadal loss more if i heard Djokovic fans hyping up Nadal's USO '13 level but instead i've mostly heard stamina and form excuses for Djokovic... and okay so Nadal induces more errors from Djokovic than others, but Djokovic was also independently making more errors than his norm, and that could still hurt him even (or perhaps especially) in a different matchup, such as Roddick!

ehhh i would definitely put it more like 1. pace 2. depth 3. width 4. height. still agree with the general point that Djokovic's high-margin offense doesn't quite work on Federer (and then he doesn't quite have the same backup shotmaking gear), and that's not necessarily more of a flaw in his game than Federer's natural rally tolerance fluctuations and backhand offense limitations

yeah i was re-reading the Djokovic-Simon AO '16 match report by Wasp and i was like... awkward sorta short forehands you say...

(also i really think you have to do era and surface contextualization for the bolded part, there's just far too many great movers in different styles to say this kind of thing)

my feeling is that as soon as you zoom in to single matches, you absolutely have to accept a primarily subjective rather than stats-based framing, in order to make any sense of them. i just don't know that DR really captures the momentum of the matches in question

i'm just not sure del Potro in that kind of form is comfortable for anyone (note also Djokovic's best forehand picks here:
). i guess the way i'd put it is that Djokovic was good enough and liked the matchup enough that i'm sure he'd take it to 5, but i also just think del Potro would usually win in the end

eh the SF against Tiafoe was NID, Alcaraz's level when he needed to lock in was great. like i said Alcaraz was inefficient but other than the QF against Sinner he wasn't really in trouble. if Alcaraz was 1 point from losing to Ruud then Djokovic was 1 point from losing to Medvedev in '23 (since we're talking about stamina), but then we both know that their respective serve-volley plays set point down were high enough percentage (along with their overall levels being higher) that this doesn't really tell us much about the matches. and honestly it's not like '22 Djokovic was immune to single-match lessened stamina allegations (RG vs Nadal, YEC and maybe even Astana vs Medvedev, even Madrid vs Alcaraz pre-third set according to some copers).

the difference for me is that Djokovic's return in '23 was off the whole tournament. like he was struggling to break Thompson and Sinner, forget Hurkacz, and for him on grass that's very concerning. i don't think '19/'21 matter (they were pretty mid/outright bad) because i think '22 just showed a better level when needed even if e.g. the random sets lost against Norrie and Sinner bring down the average. kind of like the Wimbly '24 vs RG '24 question for Alcaraz actually, where i'd side with the former
Click to expand...
Great post.

Yeah it is and it was unlucky for Federer too and he deserves credit for winning but again I don't think the margins here are nearly what people propogate. I know you're not a huge DR fan but Agassi had a higher DR than Murray. It's not hard at all to picture a world where Djokovic wins and Federer loses and Federer fans are the ones complaining about the wind. Djokovic had the ability to be better and win anyway but I also don't think it's unfair to call that bad luck because in normal circumstances he more than likely wins.

Yeah of course I was picking the obvious example. But thinking about the hypothetical age swap he goes into the 08 USO and he beat 14 Murray no reason to think he'd lose to 08 Murray. I'm not claiming 14 Djo was good I'm claiming he was good enough to beat the vacuous field.

Agree to disagree I think width has definitely been a bigger problem for Fed than depth and height probably too (the components of what I was calling shape). Fed also handles the trademark deep down the middle much better than most he is in general very comfortable picking the ball up on quick hops and given that is how Djo loves to generate advantages either by forcing you back or drawing/short balls and errors with that kinda shot that is certainly not good for him. There's not much Djokovic attacks with that makes Fed uncomfortable he still obviously wins the majority of baseline exchanges because he's just better but the matchup is obviously not good. The things you mentioned are a huge part of it but these are too.

I guess but I view Djokovic as one of the pioneers of modernizing tennis movement as well as also just being a freak athlete. He is obviously a beyond exceptional mover.

I agree it doesn't but I think it's probably the best single match stat we have.

Fair enough.

Djokovic stamina issues are not the same as Alcaraz stamina issues. Old Djokovic energy levels fluctuate randomly and he was clearly fine in the 3rd. Not the same as a teenager who played a **** load of 5 setters and was almost certainly on fumes.

Yeah fair enough I'm definitely not committed to 23 over the others but I think it's the same realm of performance. Basically what I'm saying is none of them were overly impressive. The 22 final was nice but not like wow great either.
 
TheFifthSet said:
Ok that’s all well and good but….which years is he off on re: their late careers?


He’s giving specifics and you’re responding (mostly) in generalities. It’s not crazy, he just has a different and more granular way of comparing them as players.

But yea which years, and why?
Click to expand...

To me those aren't specifics. It's mental gymnastics. So I don't want to get into it, I look at the general picture. The general picture shows us very clearly already.
 
This whole Fed won lots of BO3 matches as an old man thing so therefore he was better at tennis and just lost on physicality is silly for so many reasons. First off physicality is like an enormous part of tennis. Second Djokovic went even with Fed H2H from 07 Canada - 10 USO a period which is supposed to be much stronger for Fed and I'm not going to extrapolate off that because that would be insanely dumb. And most damning of all is the flippancy that the Murray BO3 H2H is treated with but all of the sudden these BO3 matches are super indicative of something. Give me a break.
 
Federer fans always ignore the huge elephant in the room—the 24 matches he lost from match point up, and 6 in Slams. This is how the pendulum can swing in favor of his rivals when this only happened to them 4 and 9 times and never in a Slam. You can be a surgeon with a racket but if your mentality is shaky in pressure moments compared to them, they will take it and then you're left scratching your head in disbelief and yelling from the rooftops "Federer is still better".
 
The Guru said:
This whole Fed won lots of BO3 matches as an old man thing so therefore he was better at tennis and just lost on physicality is silly for so many reasons. First off physicality is like an enormous part of tennis. Second Djokovic went even with Fed H2H from 07 Canada - 10 USO a period which is supposed to be much stronger for Fed and I'm not going to extrapolate off that because that would be insanely dumb. And most damning of all is the flippancy that the Murray BO3 H2H is treated with but all of the sudden these BO3 matches are super indicative of something. Give me a break.
Click to expand...
Specifying Canada 07 to USO 2010 is some fine cherry picking, it nicely avoids the 3 losses at the end of 2010 to make it look even lol.
 
NatF said:
I am? :unsure:
Click to expand...
Sure if you expand your sample in either direction it hurts Fed. So take out the cherry-picking from mine anyway and Novak is winning 40% that’s certainly an over performance considering where they both were at in their careers.
 
The Guru said:
Sure if you expand your sample in either direction it hurts Fed. So take out the cherry-picking from mine anyway and Novak is winning 40% that’s certainly an over performance considering where they both were at in their careers.
Click to expand...
What was my sample, I don't recall talking about any date ranges lol.
 
The Guru said:
Sure if you expand your sample in either direction it hurts Fed. So take out the cherry-picking from mine anyway and Novak is winning 40% that’s certainly an over performance considering where they both were at in their careers.
Click to expand...
You’re also excluding slam matches which I didn’t do which would help Djokovic in my period.
 
The Guru said:
I don’t remember exactly but I think it was they were even in BO3 in 2015
Click to expand...
I was talking about the 2015 matches a bit in the context of the match-up advantage argument. Dont think that really counts as cherry picking but ok.
 
2024 Sinner
1.44 DR, 55.7% of total points won, .86 lowest DR in any match

2015 Djoko
1.42 DR, 56.0% of total points won, .54 lowest DR in any match

2011 Djoko
1.36 DR, 56.0% of total points won, .50 lowest DR in any match

2005 Federer
1.42 DR, 55.7% of total points won, 1.01 lowest DR in any match (nobody was able to win the DR battle against him on hardcourts)

2006 Federer
1.41 DR, 55.7% of total points won, .92 lowest DR in any match
 
NatF said:
Ask @TheFifthSet
Click to expand...
Got tired of the exercise by the end, as you’ll probably be able to tell:



AO, ‘87 born Fed



2010: 35-65, 29 y/o Djokovic was great.

2011: wins, Djokovic sucked/was injured.

2012: Could go either way with ‘12 Nadal.

2013: ‘07 Fed beats ‘19 Djoko.

2014: Don’t see knackered Fed beating Nadal or 33 year old Djokovic.

2015: probably wins over 34 y/o Djoko that struggled in the tournament, his worst win statistically by a long shot.

2016: no telling how good that years version of Djokovic was gonna be. I’ll be conservative and say it’s 50-50.

2017: hardest one to call. Another 50-50.

2018: wins easily.

2019: probably wins, sad as that is.

2020: has a shot against Thiem, but I think he loses.

2021: loses.

2022: wins, ‘16 Fed was perfectly fine and would’ve shellacked ‘22 Nadal.

2023: wins! Easily at that!

2024: loses to Sinner.

Range: 6-10 titles.


‘81 born Djoko:

‘02: wins straightforwardly.

‘03: loses to Agassi.

‘04: loses to Safin, Agassi and perhaps Roddick.

‘05: 50-50 against ‘05 Safin on RA.

‘06: wins easily.

‘07: wins easily.

‘08: probably wins.

‘09: 60-40against ‘09 Dull.

‘10: 65-35 over ‘04 Fed.

‘11 and ‘12: injured, doesn’t win.

‘13: probably loses to Fed.

‘14: beats Nadal.

‘15: probably loses to Fed.

‘16: 50-50.

‘17: 50-50.

‘18: Nope.

Future: TBD.



Range: 8-11 titles.

RG:

‘87-born Fed:

2011: Competitive match with Nadal on those fast courts. 60-40— on paper I’d like to give it Fed a bigger edge but think Nadal deserves that much respect.


2012: loses.

2013: 60-40. 26 year old Fed gave a better Nadal fits.

2014: loses.

2015: wins over ‘15 Wawrinka/‘21-equivalent Djovak.

2016: 60-40.

2017: loses to Nadal.

2018: loses to Nadal.

Realistic range: 1-3 titles.


‘81 born Djokovic:

‘01: loses to Guga, or before then.

‘02: wins the tournament.

‘03: loses.

‘04: loses.

‘05: 50-50 against Nadal.

‘06: 20-80.

‘07: loses.

‘08: haha.

‘09: 50-50 with Fed’s path.

‘10: loses.

‘11: loses.

‘12: loses.

‘13: loses.

‘14: loses.

‘15: probably loses.

‘16: probably loses.

‘17: loses.

‘18: loses.

Realistic range: 1-3 titles.
 
Last edited:
The Guru said:
Great post.

Yeah it is and it was unlucky for Federer too and he deserves credit for winning but again I don't think the margins here are nearly what people propogate. I know you're not a huge DR fan but Agassi had a higher DR than Murray. It's not hard at all to picture a world where Djokovic wins and Federer loses and Federer fans are the ones complaining about the wind. Djokovic had the ability to be better and win anyway but I also don't think it's unfair to call that bad luck because in normal circumstances he more than likely wins.
Click to expand...

A key difference is that Agassi is a great wind player, Murray a not-so-great one (the total inability to muster a respectable level in the windswept ‘09 IW is but one pointer).

It’s also just a different match. Federer was never behind, closest he got to playing catch-up was saving a BP early in the third.

The Guru said:
Yeah of course I was picking the obvious example. But thinking about the hypothetical age swap he goes into the 08 USO and he beat 14 Murray no reason to think he'd lose to 08 Murray. I'm not claiming 14 Djo was good I'm claiming he was good enough to beat the vacuous field.
Click to expand...

That’s assuming he beats Roddick, who I can see capitalizing on Djokovic’s lolworthy semifinal performance as a 27 year old. Why would that be out of the question?

(But tbh I think I may have underestimated his chances in that hypothetical. ‘14 Djokovic was bad but definitely has a shot as the #2 seed in 2008 with how the draw played out.)
 
Last edited:
2011 Djokovic has to deal with Prime Fedal on HC

He defeated Federer 4 times. In straight sets at the AO, Dubai, 3 sets at IW and of course the legendary 5 sets at the USO with the 40-15 come-back. And he defeated Nadal in four sets at the USO (after he defeated him two times on clay and at Wimbledon with one set lost)

Without diminishing the merite of Sinner, but 2011 Federer was still very strong, and leagues above the likes of Medvedev, 37 y.o Oldovic and Fritz. I'am not convinced Sinner defeat Federer at the USO SF 2011. And when Sinner has to deal with another ATG like Alcaraz, he lost.

Djokovic and Sinner had to come-back from 0-2 to both win their USO/AO titles, another similarity. But coming back against Prime Federer was way tougher than coming back against Medvedev. If Medvedev was able to school Sinner for 2 entire sets, imagine what Prime Federer would do. It took really a peak performance from Nole to beat him in 3 sets.

2011 Djokovic was 10-1 against Prime Fedal. It will be never repeated.
 
Winner Sinner said:
A 34-year-old Federer and a 2015 version of Nadal in the worst version of his career between 2005 and 2022.

So who beat Djokovic in 2015?
Click to expand...
Federer in Wimbledon finals was a dangerous Federer! So Djokovic was supposed to yield to Federer, just because he was younger?

Don't be absurd! We don't hold any grudges against Carlos & Jannik for beating Djokovic!

Actually, we're glad Federer couldn't beat Djokovic in any of the WB finals. Because if he did, we'd have to concede Federer was the greater grass player!
 
Last edited:
By the numbers (and numbers never lie) you have to give it to The Sinner. Plus tennis always evolves…unless we’re no longer pushing that narrative since it goes against the agenda :sneaky:
 
Sorry I thought context didn’t matter except for salty fanboys and stats on paper are all that people care about right?

Sinner’s best HC season is simply better than any of Djoker’s and most of Federer’s, which means peak Sinner > peak Djokovic on HC
 
TheFifthSet said:
Got tired of the exercise by the end, as you’ll probably be able to tell:



AO, ‘87 born Fed



2010: 35-65, 29 y/o Djokovic was great.

2011: wins, Djokovic sucked/was injured.

2012: Could go either way with ‘12 Nadal.

2013: ‘07 Fed beats ‘19 Djoko.

2014: Don’t see knackered Fed beating Nadal or 33 year old Djokovic.

2015: probably wins over 34 y/o Djoko that struggled in the tournament, his worst win statistically by a long shot.

2016: no telling how good that years version of Djokovic was gonna be. I’ll be conservative and say it’s 50-50.

2017: hardest one to call. Another 50-50.

2018: wins easily.

2019: probably wins, sad as that is.

2020: has a shot against Thiem, but I think he loses.

2021: loses.

2022: wins, ‘16 Fed was perfectly fine and would’ve shellacked ‘22 Nadal.

2023: wins! Easily at that!

2024: loses to Sinner.

Range: 6-10 titles.


‘81 born Djoko:

‘02: wins straightforwardly.

‘03: loses to Agassi.

‘04: loses to Safin, Agassi and perhaps Roddick.

‘05: 50-50 against ‘05 Safin on RA.

‘06: wins easily.

‘07: wins easily.

‘08: probably wins.

‘09: 60-40against ‘09 Dull.

‘10: 65-35 over ‘04 Fed.

‘11 and ‘12: injured, doesn’t win.

‘13: probably loses to Fed.

‘14: beats Nadal.

‘15: probably loses to Fed.

‘16: 50-50.

‘17: 50-50.

‘18: Nope.

Future: TBD.



Range: 8-11 titles.

RG:

‘87-born Fed:

2011: Competitive match with Nadal on those fast courts. 60-40— on paper I’d like to give it Fed a bigger edge but think Nadal deserves that much respect.


2012: loses.

2013: 60-40. 26 year old Fed gave a better Nadal fits.

2014: loses.

2015: wins over ‘15 Wawrinka/‘21-equivalent Djovak.

2016: 60-40.

2017: loses to Nadal.

2018: loses to Nadal.

Realistic range: 1-3 titles.


‘81 born Djokovic:

‘01: loses to Guga, or before then.

‘02: wins the tournament.

‘03: loses.

‘04: loses.

‘05: 50-50 against Nadal.

‘06: 20-80.

‘07: loses.

‘08: haha.

‘09: 50-50 with Fed’s path.

‘10: loses.

‘11: loses.

‘12: loses.

‘13: loses.

‘14: loses.

‘15: probably loses.

‘16: probably loses.

‘17: loses.

‘18: loses.

Realistic range: 1-3 titles.
Click to expand...
Thanks.
 
Match-up advantage and better skills. A bit of both for Federer against Djokovic.
 
weakera said:
Jannik Sinner 2024
Record: 54-3 (94.7%)
Grand Slams: 2
Titles: 7
ATP Finals: W
Losses with 0 sets won: 0

Novak Djokovic 2011
Record: 46-5 (90.1%)
Grand Slams: 2
Titles: 6
ATP Finals: RR
Losses with 0 sets won: 3

:unsure:
Click to expand...
Matts Wilander would be very proud of you. This is the kind of comparison that he would make.
 
RoS said:
2011 Djokovic has to deal with Prime Fedal on HC

He defeated Federer 4 times. In straight sets at the AO, Dubai, 3 sets at IW and of course the legendary 5 sets at the USO with the 40-15 come-back. And he defeated Nadal in four sets at the USO (after he defeated him two times on clay and at Wimbledon with one set lost)

Without diminishing the merite of Sinner, but 2011 Federer was still very strong, and leagues above the likes of Medvedev, 37 y.o Oldovic and Fritz. I'am not convinced Sinner defeat Federer at the USO SF 2011. And when Sinner has to deal with another ATG like Alcaraz, he lost.

Djokovic and Sinner had to come-back from 0-2 to both win their USO/AO titles, another similarity. But coming back against Prime Federer was way tougher than coming back against Medvedev. If Medvedev was able to school Sinner for 2 entire sets, imagine what Prime Federer would do. It took really a peak performance from Nole to beat him in 3 sets.

2011 Djokovic was 10-1 against Prime Fedal. It will be never repeated.
Click to expand...
Nadal was 8-2 against Federer and Djokovic in 2008, beating both of them 4 times each.

And Nadal responded to the 2011 situation in the following few years.
 
Nadal responded well, he was either 2nd or 3rd best! Remember he was 1-6 vs Federer in their last 7 meetings! BTW, that was why Djokovic built up such a big lead in #1!

Remind me again, who was the best player in his prime that Sinner won! Everybody knew he lost twice to Alcaraz! And in 2011 Djokovic beat Nadal 6 straight times!
 
peak Federer for sure.

Djokovic got bodied too many times by old man fed + Murray on faster HCs to be top dog on the surface. He’s king of Australia that’s about it.
 
RF-18 said:
Now you wanna add context to the fact that Federer was never a legit contender at USO outside a few years. Even using one year performance (2011) like one year suddenly can be universal, it doesn't work like that. You can't have one great year and then following that go out in quarter finals. After that 2011 bout, Federer lost to Berdych and Robredo. And we haven't even mentioned Federers first years in the Open. It took him till he was 23 to get past the first week. Djokovic was already making finals and semis at 19-20. So the pattern is seen in his young years as well there. He had a great run in his mid 20s, but that's pretty much it. Djokovic was consistently making finals from age 20 to 36. What are we even arguing here.



Injuries is part of the game so sure I'll concede that 2017 shouldn't be used here, but 2020 and 2022 (and 2022 where starting Wimbledon he went on a great run and had a real chance just like in 2020 to win the title). But anyway I mentioned these years just to show what a crazy run Djokovic has really been on at the USO since he was a teenager. He made all those finals (10) yet he had a disqualification and got banned from the country as well. Like @The Guru said earlier the set of circumstances that has kept Djokovic "just" at 4 is pretty ridiculous.

The longevity is not even close, ,a you are struggling this much to concede the difference. You are giving it, but you are doing it with alot of restraint.
Click to expand...
Nonsense. Federer aged 34 played some excellent attacking tennis on a medium/slow hc and reached the final in 2015.
Djokovic aged 34-36 reached a final and won in 2023 through a pretty pisspoor draw.
Federer was consistently injured every year after 2015, I don’t think he played a healthy USO between 2016-2019. 2019 he looked good before he did his back in. 2017 he overplayed at Canada and did his back. Both years he would be top 2 favourite to win.

F vs non F can be draw dependant. Put 2010/2012 Federer in years like 18/21/23 and he wins another title and reaches another final.


As for Djokovic being unlucky, he was extremely lucky in 2011, and of course 2023 with the atp 250 draw which kinda balances out 2022 being banned from entering (which was his own fault anyway).

DQ isn’t unlucky? Guy tried to decapitate an old lady. Maybe he should’ve invested in anger management so he doesn’t rage on court.

Can’t see any other bad luck, just weak performance in his peak years vs nishikori, nadal and Murray
 
Last edited:
Alcaraz beat 2024 Sinner at Indian Wells and China... so that means Alcaraz would beat 2011 Djokovic on hardcourt too? :-D
 
weakera said:
Crazy that in 2005, Federer was 50-1 in hard court matches. Only loss: Five setter to Safin at the AO where Federer held match point.

Will we ever see such hard court dominance again?
Click to expand...
we already did. every season with 2 slams, WTF and cople of masters is greater. if you lose at slam so is your dominance not good enough.
 
Last edited:
NoleFam said:
Djokovic was 7-0 against Federer and Nadal on hardcourt in 2011. Do you honestly belive 2024 Sinner would do that? He was 0-2 against Alcaraz. I don't know what's up with this wanting to compare to one of the greatest seasons of all time but he ain't there yet.
Click to expand...
So competition does matter now, right?
:sneaky:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Winner Sinner
Djokovic 2011 vs Sinner 2024
2 3
Replies
107
Views
4K
Hitman
Hitman
Winner Sinner
  • Poll Poll
[POLL) Sinner 2024 vs Djokovic 2023
2
Replies
51
Views
2K
Winner Sinner
Winner Sinner
Rafa4LifeEver
Sinner v/s Alcaraz v/s Djokovic - the loop on HC
Replies
5
Views
379
Rafa4LifeEver
Rafa4LifeEver
Berrettini_Fan
  • Poll Poll
2024 Sinner vs 2016 Murray
Replies
22
Views
734
3loudboys
3loudboys
weakera
Jannik Sinner looking to join VERY exclusive company in his SF vs. Novak Djokovic...
Replies
16
Views
463
TheGoldenEra1990’s
TheGoldenEra1990’s
Back
Top