Jim Courier: Rafael Nadal no longer favourite in Paris

[RF-18]

Comments from Courier I find this morning about the FO:


"For the first time in many years Nadal will not be the favourite going into Roland Garros," Courier, who will commentate on the tournament for British channel ITV, said.

"That role is now firmly occupied by Novak Djokovic. Nadal is less vulnerable in Paris, given the best of five-set format which allows him more time to problem solve but there are now guys in the locker room who see him as an opportunity rather than an immovable obstacle."

"Murray is most certainly a threat to go very deep and, if the draw breaks in his favour, a final is attainable," Courier said.

"Once you reach the final, anything goes -- especially now that Nadal is playing like a mortal on the clay again.

"Kei Nishikori is my second favourite behind Djokovic and I firmly believe he is the second best claycourt player today.

"Also, Nick Krygios has the game, aggressive energy and athletic ability to stir things up the way he did at Wimbledon last year and in Australia in January."

http://www.eurosport.com/tennis/fre...ger-favourite-in-paris_sto4738516/story.shtml

 

[daddy]

The man said what we all know about Rafa not being favourite. As for Kei, I am not so sure he's the 2nd best claycourt player around as I can see quite a few people who can fill in that spot ...

 

[Chanwan]

To me, Novak is a pretty clear favorite by now, but Rafa is an even more clear 2nd favorite - and I still don't think one should underestimate the challenge of beating Rafa on a court, where Novak is 0-6 against him.

Murray, Nishi follow. Then comes a field of Stan, Fed, Ferrer, Berdych - after those come the spoilers, including Kyrgios, the Frenchbrigade and others.

 

[SamprasisGOAT]

Who's favourite? Djokovic

Who I think will win? Nishikori

Who's got the best outside chance? Nadal or federer

 

[NatF]

I doubt many players will have what it in them to take 3 sets of Nadal at the FO. Even when he's playing crap he still puts enough pressure on for most players to just beat themselves. On a hot sunny day the guy will still be very tough to look past against anyone even Djokovic.

 

[VexlanderPrime]

It's going to be a fight. The field isn't going to just give it to Djoker, he needs to play at least as well as he has thus far to hold everyone off. I see Rafa losing in the QF/SF after one too many exhausting 5 set grindfests.

 

[gold soundz]

Federer still sees Nadal as the favourite.

Also, I have no idea why people think Nishikori is the second favourite/think he's going to win, etc. He just lost to Djokovic in Rome and Murray in Madrid.

 

[RF-18]

It's going to be a fight. The field isn't going to just give it to Djoker, he needs to play at least as well as he has thus far to hold everyone off. I see Rafa losing in the QF/SF after one too many exhausting 5 set grindfests.

Agreed. People expect Djoko to walk this home but it is not gonna be easy. He has won everything lately but doesn't mean he will win the next tournament. There are other players that are hungry for the title too.

If Djokovic loses, this board would go nuts, I expect djokovic will get trashed by everyone, mainly cause of all the hype.

But some are dreaming for this to happen, just to jump on Djoko and say he is overrated.

 

[moonballs]

I doubt many players will have what it in them to take 3 sets of Nadal at the FO. Even when he's playing crap he still puts enough pressure on for most players to just beat themselves. On a hot sunny day the guy will still be very tough to look past against anyone even Djokovic.

Hot and sunny will be good for Nadal because of the higher bounce but unlike the past Nadal will be gassed in long matches.

 

[jeebeesus]

Rafa always come alive in RG , he`s a beast when it comes to 5 setters on clay.

Vamos Rafa!!!

 

[Alchemy-Z]

Honestly - to be considered and actual underdog at the FO has to be comforting to Nadal- he has always been a better underdog than front runner...

his motivation is to win the FO now...not stop someone else from winning it. totally different mindset

 

[Prabhanjan]

Rafa can always step it up. Till he losses, he will be my favorite

 

[Algo]

He will win anyway

 

[heninfan99]

He's just stating the obvious here but I'm not seeing Kyrgios as the main outside threat or bet.

I LOL'd that Fed isn't listed in the poll and realized this would thread was built purely for that dis.

 

[accidental]

Berdych is clearly the favorite

 

[MichaelNadal]

Rafa isn't winning, mainly because everyone is going to #TurnUp when they play him and go for the match of their life (understandably) and swing for the fences with no pressure. Rafa meanwhile is nervous to hit a decent FH half the time these days. It would just take too much work. Maybe next year.

 

[NatF]

Rafa isn't winning, mainly because everyone is going to #TurnUp when they play him and go for the match of their life (understandably) and swing for the fences with no pressure. Rafa meanwhile is nervous to hit a decent FH half the time these days. It would just take too much work. Maybe next year.

Hopefully the Wawa match showed Nadal he needs to move further up the court. If he keeps playing like that he's going to be running a hell of a lot.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Seriously. In his prime it was an advantage, but these days it's killing him. He's either got to make changes to some things in his game or things will continue to be ugly. He moves up on grass and HC, time to do the same on clay. He's giving his opponents the extra time that he himself used to have.

 

[G A S]

Berdych is clearly the favorite

a stupendous finale to his carrer, huh?

 

[sureshs]

LOL no Federer?

 

[G A S]

LOL no Federer?

it is the oozing confidence on federer showing its brute strength.

 

[veroniquem]

At his age and with his current return game on clay, Fed's chances are very dim in the best of 5 format.

 

[NatF]

Seriously. In his prime it was an advantage, but these days it's killing him. He's either got to make changes to some things in his game or things will continue to be ugly. He moves up on grass and HC, time to do the same on clay. He's giving his opponents the extra time that he himself used to have.

I don't get it. It's the thing about his game that grates on me. He has an all-time great forehand, a good backhand, he can volley, he has the touch to pull off the drop shot...and yet he plays not to lose, rubbing shoulders with the lines people.

 

[junior74]

If Federer can toy with Stan and Tomas in two sets, he can do it in three.

 

[NatF]

If Federer can toy with Stan and Tomas in two sets, he can do it in three.

Indeed, Federer is not a favorite but he must be favored over the likes of Berdych at least.

 

[veroniquem]

If Federer can toy with Stan and Tomas in two sets, he can do it in three.

That's the thing you see, I am not so sure. I think that anyone dragging him to a 5th (like Gulbis last year) is almost guaranteed to win the match, especially with no TB in the 5th. And that's even supposing that Fed starts the match roaring and aces the 1st 2 sets because if he loses 1 of the first 2, he's likely to lose before the decider.
I don't think he can hold the distance on clay at this point. Fed-error will show up sooner than later.

 

[Pagoo]

Not surprised Federer is not in the poll. The OP is a former Federer "fan" that thinks he has won enough.

No matter how bad anyone thinks Federer's clay game is, he is still more of a favorite than Berdych and Wawrinka.

 

[Pagoo]

Federer just reached the finals of Rome. Oh, a red clay tournament, I may add.

Is he the favorite? Of course not. Can he still play on red clay? He sure can.

We will just have to wait and see, won't we?

 

[daddy]

Amasing that I did not even miss Fed in the poll as Novak was the only solution imo .. He should have been in the poll however, if Stan and Berd can so can he.

 

[NatF]

Not surprised Federer is not in the poll. The OP is a former Federer "fan" that thinks he has won enough.

No matter how bad anyone thinks Federer's clay game is, he is still more of a favorite than Berdych and Wawrinka.

I think Wawrinka is a dark house, if he's on his game for 2 weeks I think he's more of a threat than Federer. Unfortunately he's just as likely to lose in the 1st round to a journeyman.

 

[RF-18]

Im playing the underdog part. No pressure on fed

 

[JRAJ1988]

I voted for Djokovic.

I see a Djokovic vs Federer final on the horizon, Federer will have to avoid Nadal and Nishikori.

As much as I want Murray to win, it just ain't going to happen.

 

[Pagoo]

I think Wawrinka is a dark house, if he's on his game for 2 weeks I think he's more of a threat than Federer. Unfortunately he's just as likely to lose in the 1st round to a journeyman.

Yeah, I agree. Stan's inconsistency is the main reason people overlook him. He is playing in Geneva this week. If he goes all the way, not sure how that would affect his RG campaign.

Would still prefer not see him in Federer's quarter/half though.

 

[G A S]

Federer just reached the finals of Rome. Oh, a red clay tournament, I may add.

Is he the favorite? Of course not. Can he still play on red clay? He sure can.

We will just have to wait and see, won't we?

could he win against djokovic on a 5 set final though? it is where the confidence fades away.

 

[junior74]

That's the thing you see, I am not so sure. I think that anyone dragging him to a 5th (like Gulbis last year) is almost guaranteed to win the match, especially with no TB in the 5th. And that's even supposing that Fed starts the match roaring and aces the 1st 2 sets because if he loses 1 of the first 2, he's likely to lose before the decider.
I don't think he can hold the distance on clay at this point. Fed-error will show up sooner than later.

Off course, you're partly right. But RF can go through early rounds without dropping sets. I don't think he is a favorite. But I never count him out.

 

[bjsnider]

I don't get it. It's the thing about his game that grates on me. He has an all-time great forehand, a good backhand, he can volley, he has the touch to pull off the drop shot...and yet he plays not to lose, rubbing shoulders with the lines people.

Can't argue with results.

 

[DRII]

Federer still sees Nadal as the favourite.

Also, I have no idea why people think Nishikori is the second favourite/think he's going to win, etc. He just lost to Djokovic in Rome and Murray in Madrid.

Nishikori has the ground game to compete with anyone on clay, sans an inform Nadal, what he lacks is endurance (not power as some mistakenly say).

given that there’s usually a day of rest in between matches at RG, i put him as a co-favorite along with Nole assuming Nadal's form remains extremely low...

 

[Chanwan]

Nishikori has the ground game to compete with anyone on clay, sans an inform Nadal, what he lacks is endurance (not power as some mistakenly say).

given that there’s usually a day of rest in between matches at RG, i put him as a co-favorite along with Nole assuming Nadal's form remains extremely low...

co-favorite as in equal favorite with Djoko? What has he showed to earn that place in front of Rafa - and Murray for that matter?
I put him as 4th right behind Murray.

 

[DRII]

co-favorite as in equal favorite with Djoko? What has he showed to earn that place in front of Rafa - and Murray for that matter?
I put him as 4th right behind Murray.

well Nadal is just not there right now, he also wasn't there last year and still pulled it out, but i did say if his form remains low.

the two losses to Murray and Nole from Nishikori came due to lack of endurance and a weary forehand that results.

i believe he has the baseline offense to get pass those two (especially Murray) over 5 sets if they were to meet at RG where he'll get a day of rest.

 

[Mainad]

well Nadal is just not there right now, he also wasn't there last year and still pulled it out, but i did say if his form remains low.

the two losses to Murray and Nole from Nishikori came due to lack of endurance and a weary forehand that results.

i believe he has the baseline offense to get pass those two (especially Murray) over 5 sets if they were to meet at RG where he'll get a day of rest.

What a contradiction! You've just cited Nishikori's endurance problems in failing to beat Murray in Madrid in a best of 3 match and then declare that he is going to overcome Murray, the second fittest player on tour, in best of FIVE sets at RG! Dream on!!!

 

[Steve0904]

Can't argue with results.

You can now.

 

[Mainad]

Disappointed that Courier has bought into the Nishikori hype which seems rampant everywhere at the moment!

Nishikori is a fine player, thoroughly deserves his top 10 ranking, and is always a threat especially on clay, his most successful surface. But let's get things into a bit of perspective. Djokovic and Murray are the the top achieving players on clay this year, not Nishikori. Both of them have won multiple clay titles this year including Masters 1000s and both of them beat Nishikori in straight sets en route to doing so. Clearly Djokovic and Murray are 1 and 2 favourites for RG this year with Nadal and Federer close behind. Nishikori is in the rank just behind them along with Berdych, Ferrer, Wawrinka and others.

So come on Jim and others...a bit of perspective please and that goes for the pollsters too who have currently voted for everybody, including of course Nishikori, except for the guy who beat him on the way to beating Nadal to win one of the 3 biggest clay warm-up events leading into the French Open!

 

[bjsnider]

Disappointed that Courier has bought into the Nishikori hype which seems rampant everywhere at the moment!

Nishikori is a fine player, thoroughly deserves his top 10 ranking, and is always a threat especially on clay, his most successful surface. But let's get things into a bit of perspective. Djokovic and Murray are the the top achieving players on clay this year, not Nishikori. Both of them have won multiple clay titles this year including Masters 1000s and both of them beat Nishikori in straight sets en route to doing so. Clearly Djokovic and Murray are 1 and 2 favourites for RG this year with Nadal and Federer close behind. Nishikori is in the rank just behind them along with Berdych, Ferrer, Wawrinka and others.

So come on Jim and others...a bit of perspective, please!

I had the same reaction, although I don't think Federer is a contender at RG anymore. Certainly Nadal has to be the equal of anyone until proven otherwise. But yes, Murray and Djokovic are the best players so far in 2015.

 

[RF-18]

Disappointed that Courier has bought into the Nishikori hype which seems rampant everywhere at the moment!

Nishikori is a fine player, thoroughly deserves his top 10 ranking, and is always a threat especially on clay, his most successful surface. But let's get things into a bit of perspective. Djokovic and Murray are the the top achieving players on clay this year, not Nishikori. Both of them have won multiple clay titles this year including Masters 1000s and both of them beat Nishikori in straight sets en route to doing so. Clearly Djokovic and Murray are 1 and 2 favourites for RG this year with Nadal and Federer close behind. Nishikori is in the rank just behind them along with Berdych, Ferrer, Wawrinka and others.

So come on Jim and others...a bit of perspective, please!

But Courier did mention Murray.

And what, is Murray a bigger favourite than nadal? What planet are you from?(no offense but come on, you say Courier needs perspective then you say something like that)

 

[Mainad]

But Courier did mention Murray.

Yes, but behind Nishikori! Do you agree with that?

And what, is Murray a bigger favourite than nadal? What planet are you from?(no offense but come on, you say Courier needs perspective then you say something like that)

Well, what planet are you from (no offense either)? Murray has beaten Nadal in a big clay final this year so why shouldn't he be considered a top favourite at RG? Do you consider Djokovic a favourite over Nadal?

Why is it so many people on here have such short memories whenever Murray achieves something? You would think Madrid was 6 months ago not a couple of weeks! But, hey, Nishikori won Barcelona so that obviously makes him so much more of a favourite to Jim C and others!

 

[RF-18]

Yes, but behind Nishikori! Do you agree with that?

No, I do not agree with it. But it is not so unreasonable.

Well, what planet are you from (no offense either)? Murray has beaten Nadal in a big clay final this year so why shouldn't he be considered a top favourite at RG? Do you consider Djokovic a favourite over Nadal?

Haha so what if he did? It was his first win over nadal on clay, and first big clay title. That doesn't make him a bigger fav. immidiatly over a 9 time champion in FO. You are jumping the gun a bit after one victory.

Yea, murray is a one of the favourites, but you said he is more favourite than Nadal!

My fav. for FO

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Nishikori, Waw and those other guys.

 

[>17]

…

 

[Mainad]

No, I do not agree with it. But it is not so unreasonable.

Glad you don't agree with it but don't agree that it is not unreasonable. You have to take into account a player's current form when assessing his chances at a Grand Slam and the fact remains that Murray has shown better form on clay this year than has Nishikori!

Haha so what if he did? It was his first win over nadal on clay, and first big clay title. That doesn't make him a bigger fav. immidiatly over a 9 time champion in FO. You are jumping the gun a bit after one victory.

Maybe I am but at least I have some justification, don't I? Beating Nadal in a big clay final just before Roland Garros is significant, whether you wish to acknowledge it or not. Of course it doesn't mean that Nadal won't raise his level at RG like he usually does but that is just speculation at this stage.

Yea, murray is a one of the favourites, but you said he is more favourite than Nadal!

As I've just said, I think he might be. I could be wrong but the evidence so far justifies making a claim for him. Had he not recently beaten Nadal on clay, I would agree with you!

My fav. for FO

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Nishikori, Waw and those other guys.

I can agree with this. At least you do not subscribe to the Nishikori hype like Courier and others! :wink:

 

[Mainad]

Yes, absolutely, how biased of him. Good to see you are objective.

After all, murray managed to beat some top ten players in one clay tournament for the first time in about six years. Of course he is favored over the nine time champion. It's not like Rafael Nadal has showed he can crush murray into the clay at FO even after an absymal clay season.

I'm sure you think the sun won't rise again when it's dark at night either

Oh cut the sarcasm and try and argue with me properly if you think I have said something unreasonable?


And explain to me just when Nadal has crushed Murray into the clay at the FO even after having an abysmal season?

 

[big ted]

i would say the FO favorites are:
1 - djokovic
2 - murray
3 - nadal
4 - federer
5 - the rest...