Jim Courier: Rafael Nadal no longer favourite in Paris

Who is the favourite according to TT posters?


  • Total voters
    80

RF-18

Talk Tennis Guru
Murray has made 2 RG semis and both times he lost to Nadal. I'm sorry but what is the big difference with Djoko there? The only clay god at RG is Nadal. Neither Djoko nor Murray are but if Nadal's game declines for whatever reason and Djoko/Murray are in form and able to beat him, then either of them is capable of winning the whole thing imo. And I say that very objectively because I'm not a Murray fan at all, I much prefer Djoko personally.

Difference is Djokovic has 2 finals + multiple semis. He has two clay masters this year, as oppose to Murrays 1. And, he is a much, much better clay courter and greater by a heavy margin on the surface.

If this isn't a difference, I don't know what is.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
They would find a way, because they are doing it this year, despite Nadal proving them wrong last year. Last year's French Open was supposed to be for Nadal what 2008 Wimbledon was for Federer.
You're absolutely right but unless you're in complete denial, surely you have noticed that Nadal is playing worse than last year (and I don't mean only on clay). So the question is: how much worse can he get before it penalizes him at RG or do we really believe that his level outside of RG is 100% irrelevant and that he will continue winning it regardless of ranking, general results, overall form etc?
To me, it's a legit question.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Difference is Djokovic has 2 finals + multiple semis. He has two clay masters this year, as oppose to Murrays 1. And, he is a much, much better clay courter and greater by a heavy margin on the surface.

If this isn't a difference, I don't know what is.

No-one is disputing that Djokovic is the greater favourite but why does that mean that you can't give Murray any credit for being in the next rank of possibilities? Are we supposed to think, according to you, that his unbeaten clay record this year including beating Nadal to win a clay Masters has not improved his chances at RG at all?
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Difference is Djokovic has 2 finals + multiple semis. He has two clay masters this year, as oppose to Murrays 1. And, he is a much, much better clay courter and greater by a heavy margin on the surface.

If this isn't a difference, I don't know what is.
It doesn't matter if it's semi or final. The only relevant aspect here is that they only lost to the same guy: Nadal. Whether they played Nadal in semi or final is chance of the seeding, nothing more, nothing less. My point is: they are more than capable (both of them) of beating anyone else and stats point to a vast improvement by Murray on the surface this season.
(in best of 3 you're right of course, I'm talking strictly about RG here)
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
What a contradiction! You've just cited Nishikori's endurance problems in failing to beat Murray in Madrid in a best of 3 match and then declare that he is going to overcome Murray, the second fittest player on tour, in best of FIVE sets at RG! Dream on!!! :)

UHM calm down guy...

i know you ecstatic over Murray's first clay masters win, and trust me i'm glad he seems to be back in the 'Big 4', but lets not go crazy.

Nishi lacks endurance and sometimes patience when playing excellent defensive players like Murray and Nole but in a BO5 i definitely give him the edge over Murray on clay.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Dont get trolled by Murray. He is fully capable of losing 3R to Fognini / GGL or 4R to Monfils.
Yes he could. But if he doesn't, he could be very dangerous in the latest stages of the tournament.


ETA: I think anyone could lose to Monfils at the French. The guy is lethal in first week.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
Yes he could. But if he doesn't, he could be very dangerous in the latest stages of the tournament.


ETA: I think anyone could lose to Monfils at the French. The guy is lethal in first week.

The only players who are a lock for the QF and not susceptible to early upsets this FO are Novak , Nishikori and Ferrer.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
The only players who are a lock for the QF and not susceptible to early upsets this FO are Novak , Nishikori and Ferrer.
Nishikori, not susceptible to an early upset?? You got to be joking.
As for Ferrer, you never know. Depends who's on his way. He's not a spring flower anymore and this is best of 5.
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
Dont get trolled by Murray. He is fully capable of losing 3R to Fognini / GGL or 4R to Monfils.

Unlike Roger and Rafa, Murray hasn't lost before the QFs of a slam since USO 2010 - that's 16 straight slams, but hey, don't let facts get in the way of anything.
 

SLD76

G.O.A.T.
U was hoping someone posted about the comments Everett and Pmac said about Nadal having a rapid decline if he fails to win the FO.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Unlike Roger and Rafa, Murray hasn't lost before the QFs of a slam since USO 2010 - that's 16 straight slams, but hey, don't let facts get in the way of anything.
had forgotten about that streak - that's amazing, especially considering his back troubles
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
had forgotten about that streak - that's amazing, especially considering his back troubles

Apparently it makes him susceptible to an early exit:shock: Who knew? I guess Novak must be really at risk - what with him not having lost before the QFs since RG 2009.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Not surprised Federer is not in the poll. The OP is a former Federer "fan" that thinks he has won enough.

No matter how bad anyone thinks Federer's clay game is, he is still more of a favorite than Berdych and Wawrinka.

Yes. Federer is not the favorite but he is more of a favorite than Berdych or Wawrinka, lol.

The favorites IMO are in order: Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer, Nishikori, a surprise winner like Kyrgios, etc. (Forget Berdych. He is winning squat.)
 
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tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
Unlike Roger and Rafa, Murray hasn't lost before the QFs of a slam since USO 2010 - that's 16 straight slams, but hey, don't let facts get in the way of anything.

You cannot slide that one quick. Don't you remember Murray chickening out of 2013 FO to prepare for Wimbledon.

That said, when we talk of Murray it is impossible to forget about those long years from 2005-2010, where he was talked about as the biggest talent , only to falter to Cilic, Stan and a whole crew of players at the majors, only rarely making it past the QF (4 times only)

Murray is 28 now and the inconsistency will come back to him.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Nishikori has the ground game to compete with anyone on clay, sans an inform Nadal, what he lacks is endurance (not power as some mistakenly say).

given that there’s usually a day of rest in between matches at RG, i put him as a co-favorite along with Nole assuming Nadal's form remains extremely low...

Nah, Nishikori is NOT a co-fave with Novak. Novak is the favorite by a big margin this year IMO. Then it is Nadal and then Murray.

Nishikori has the talent but he is lacking that crucial mental part it seems to go all the way.
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
This.. call me when Nishikori actually wins a slam.. he has the tennis but his physique is way too fragile to deal with the most physically challening tournament to win in the whole calendar...

Kei will be roasted by 4R... max QF.. his physique will fall apart..

The guy in your avatar has way higher chances to win RG than kei.. all he need to fix is his turkey mentality, especially against djokovic.. he has the tennis to beat djokovic but not the balls..

yea ok mental 'giant' :rolleyes:

yet you say not to under-estimate Giraldo...
 
I cannot believe I'm not the only person picking Wawrinka. But there it is. Honestly, it wont happen but he could take out anyone and if he finds his way to the final anything could happen.

Murray who knows, the man is a creature of chaos? Novak is the favorite but Rafa rises through adversity. Could be a really good tourney... I miss Soderling!
 
Difference is Djokovic has 2 finals + multiple semis. He has two clay masters this year, as oppose to Murrays 1. And, he is a much, much better clay courter and greater by a heavy margin on the surface.

If this isn't a difference, I don't know what is.

Good analysis.

Basically for Murray to beat Novak on clay he has to be in god mode for serving. It's not a safe bet but it could happen it probably just wont because Murray's greater serving power is diminished on this surface (for 1st serves, which he needs because he cant win RG with his second).
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
"Who is your favorite for RG" is a pretty meaningless poll as things stand now.

The more relevant and interesting question is who do you think is the second favorite or who do you expect in the finals against Novak.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
You cannot slide that one quick. Don't you remember Murray chickening out of 2013 FO to prepare for Wimbledon.

That said, when we talk of Murray it is impossible to forget about those long years from 2005-2010, where he was talked about as the biggest talent , only to falter to Cilic, Stan and a whole crew of players at the majors, only rarely making it past the QF (4 times only)

Murray is 28 now and the inconsistency will come back to him.

Murray has been the second most consistent player at the big events this year. I would put him as a favorite to win the FO over Federer. IMO Murray is the third favorite to win the event maybe even the second favorite if Nadal does not get his act together.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
Murray has been the second most consistent player at the big events this year. I would put him as a favorite to win the FO over Federer. IMO Murray is the third favorite to win the event maybe even the second favorite if Nadal does not get his act together.

I still favor Rafa over Murray. If Rafa crosses 4R, the only person who can beat him in BO5 is Novak.

Munich and Madrid are unforunately not a good predictor for RG. Given his form during the year, I think Murray will make it to QF/SF. His prep seems serious in that he withdrew from Rome and made it to RG for practice. very different from 2 years back.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
Clearly Djokovic and Nadal are the top two favorites by a marked margin. This is unsurprisingly reflected in the odds. Not much to argue really.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
You cannot slide that one quick. Don't you remember Murray chickening out of 2013 FO to prepare for Wimbledon.

Try and remember the facts. Murray was suffering from increasingly severe back issues that year and clay seemed to be making it worse. He retired from a match in Rome against Granollers when 1 set all because of his back. Understandably he then withdrew from RG. Grass seemed to be better for his back and so he concentrated on doing well there. After Wimbledon his condition got worse until he was forced to undergo the back surgery a few months later.

That said, when we talk of Murray it is impossible to forget about those long years from 2005-2010, where he was talked about as the biggest talent , only to falter to Cilic, Stan and a whole crew of players at the majors, only rarely making it past the QF (4 times only)

You must be imagining things! Who the heck called Murray the biggest talent back in 2005 when he was an 18 year old scrub who had only just joined the tour except for maybe for 1 or 2 over-enthusuastic British newspapers? After he made his first Slam final at the 2008 US Open, he has only failed to get past the quarter-finals at Slams 5 times, the last time being at 2010 USO! But don't let me spoil your fond recollection of early Murray who was doing things in those years players of that age today can only dream of!

Murray is 28 now and the inconsistency will come back to him.

All players become more inconsistent as they get older. What's new? :)
 
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xan

Hall of Fame
This thread reminds me of what would happen if i toss coin 10 times and 9 times lands a head. How about 10th?
Then mustard comes in and says both sides of coin are heads until proven otherwise.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
This thread reminds me of what would happen if i toss coin 10 times and 9 times lands a head. How about 10th?
Then mustard comes in and says both sides of coin are heads until proven otherwise.
Mustard's position is: Nadal is favorite at RG until he actually loses. (And who cares what happens in other events).
Why not? It's not the only possible position but I can understand it.
 

Mick

Legend
It's Deja Vu all over again:
Last year, Djokovic was the favorite among the pundits to win the FO and Federer picked Nadal :shock:

since I am a Nadal fan, I hope the result will be the same :)
 

pound cat

G.O.A.T.
Anyone who follows Nadal and his recents results and state of mind and low ranking would not put Nadal as a favourite. Courier is just stating the obvious.
 
J

JRAJ1988

Guest
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal



3. The rest??? Nishikori/Federer/Murray?

Is that the favourites of whom is going to win?
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
People talking about Nadal having a low ranking don't realize that he could have crashed much lower already this year..

If he loses early at Roland Garros he will drop to about 11 or 12 in the world. But so have Murray and Roddick.. and they both bounced back.
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
Try and remember the facts. Murray was suffering from increasingly severe back issues that year and clay seemed to be making it worse. He retired from a match in Rome against Granollers when 1 set all because of his back. Understandably he then withdrew from RG. Grass seemed to be better for his back and so he concentrated on doing well there. After Wimbledon his condition got worse until he was forced to undergo the back surgery a few months later.



You must be imagining things! Who the heck called Murray the biggest talent back in 2005 when he was an 18 year old scrub who had only just joined the tour except for maybe for 1 or 2 over-enthusuastic British newspapers? After he made his first Slam final at the 2008 US Open, he has only failed to get past the quarter-finals at Slams 5 times, the last time being at 2010 USO! But don't let me spoil your fond recollection of early Murray who was doing things in those years players of that age today can only dream of!



All players become more inconsistent as they get older. What's new? :)
Anybody who followed tennis even as far back as 2007 could see Murray was a potential slam winner.. I know I did after I watched this match live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTnjCZr35NI
 

OddJack

G.O.A.T.
He is saying Nadal is not even the second favorite, Nishikori is, he says.

Draw is very important for him. If he falls in Murrays Q I think Murray will outlast him. He has to be more agressive though.

if he gets Wawa he is again in trouble.

I think second or third or fourth favorite doesnt matter, because the first favorite is going to take it.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
If he loses early at Roland Garros he will drop to about 11 or 12 in the world. But so have Murray and Roddick.. and they both bounced back.

They were both younger though. The one who has been amazing at bouncing back is Fed. Completely gone in 2013 but came back strong in 2014. At 32!
That is really something. Even Agassi made a comeback at 28/29, not in his 30s.
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
The only players who are a lock for the QF and not susceptible to early upsets this FO are Novak , Nishikori and Ferrer.
Ferrer is always susceptible to upsets. He has always struggled with top 20 or 30 guys who actually take it to him and aren't afraid of him.
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
They were both younger though. The one who has been amazing at bouncing back is Fed. Completely gone in 2013 but came back strong in 2014. At 32!
That is really something. Even Agassi made a comeback at 28/29, not in his 30s.
Federer hasn't dropped below 8 in the rankings since 2002.. So in reality, he hasn't had as much to bounce back from in comparison to Roddick and Murray.

Murray is 28 years old, he was 27 years old when he bounced back last year. Roddick was 25 I believe.

They weren't as young as you think..
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Federer hasn't dropped below 8 in the rankings since 2002.. So in reality, he hasn't had as much to bounce back from in comparison to Roddick and Murray.

Murray is 28 years old, he was 27 years old when he bounced back last year. Roddick was 25 I believe.

They weren't as young as you think..
25 and 27. That's not younger than 29??? (the earliest Nadal could bounce back by now)
Yes for Fed, it's not so much ranking as the fact that he made only 1 tier 1 final in 2013 (that he lost: Rome) and in 2014, boom,7 of them.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
They were both younger though. The one who has been amazing at bouncing back is Fed. Completely gone in 2013 but came back strong in 2014. At 32!
That is really something. Even Agassi made a comeback at 28/29, not in his 30s.

33 , nearing 34 is not shabby either. 3 titles, 2 masters finals with his whole favorite part of the season yet to come.
 

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
I doubt many players will have what it in them to take 3 sets of Nadal at the FO. Even when he's playing crap he still puts enough pressure on for most players to just beat themselves.
Did you see any of the matches he lost on clay? He panicked. If he falls behind in one of the early rounds to an unseeded player who's hitting a lot of winners of his short balls, I could see him completely falling apart.

Djokovic is the clear favorite. The way he kept his head down against Fed in the Rome F, despite all the fans cheering, tells me he's (finally) ready to close the deal.

The 3 Berdych votes made me LOL... didn't know he had 3 uncles posting on TW. Welcome to America, guys!
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
Agreed. People expect Djoko to walk this home but it is not gonna be easy. He has won everything lately but doesn't mean he will win the next tournament. There are other players that are hungry for the title too.

If Djokovic loses, this board would go nuts, I expect djokovic will get trashed by everyone, mainly cause of all the hype.

But some are dreaming for this to happen, just to jump on Djoko and say he is overrated.

AngieB will be one of the very first vultures to appear should it happen.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
What happened? Nadal barely scrapped by whilst djokovic effectively gifting him a match?
Yes, outrageous guess by courier, totally off the mark.

Out of all posters on the board you are single handedly most stubborn and stuck in the past.

Preach that gospel sister! :)
 

Anti-Fedal

Professional
Try and remember the facts. Murray was suffering from increasingly severe back issues that year and clay seemed to be making it worse. He retired from a match in Rome against Granollers when 1 set all because of his back. Understandably he then withdrew from RG. Grass seemed to be better for his back and so he concentrated on doing well there. After Wimbledon his condition got worse until he was forced to undergo the back surgery a few months later.



You must be imagining things! Who the heck called Murray the biggest talent back in 2005 when he was an 18 year old scrub who had only just joined the tour except for maybe for 1 or 2 over-enthusuastic British newspapers? After he made his first Slam final at the 2008 US Open, he has only failed to get past the quarter-finals at Slams 5 times, the last time being at 2010 USO! But don't let me spoil your fond recollection of early Murray who was doing things in those years players of that age today can only dream of!



All players become more inconsistent as they get older. What's new? :)


You're responding to the wrong person. I didn't write any of that.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
You're absolutely right but unless you're in complete denial, surely you have noticed that Nadal is playing worse than last year (and I don't mean only on clay). So the question is: how much worse can he get before it penalizes him at RG or do we really believe that his level outside of RG is 100% irrelevant and that he will continue winning it regardless of ranking, general results, overall form etc?
To me, it's a legit question.

You should know by now that Mustard doesn't care about the present when it comes to RG and clay in general. He's quickly turned into the Norma Desmond of TTW, always looking back on past triumphs instead of facing the much more bleak here and now.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
You're responding to the wrong person. I didn't write any of that.

Sorry about that. I don't know why it keeps happening that the wrong poster's URL pops up when replying to posts. I've gone back and edited that post to show the correct's poster's URL. I'll be more careful to make sure this doesn't happen in future! :oops:
 
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