Joao Fonseca and Damage Down the Line

[Rovesciarete]

A great article by Jeff Sackmann, which underlines aspects of the qualities the Brazilian has shown so far:

The Fonseca difference

It’s not about tactics, it’s good old-fashioned power and precision. Fonseca’s forehand isn’t innovative, and it doesn’t need to be. If he hits his shots in more or less the same directions that his peers do, he’s probably doing something right. It means that at age 18, he has already internalized pro tactics. The difference is that he’s hitting those forehands harder, and he’s often landing them closer to the lines, something hinted at by his low rate of down-the-middle forehands.

Power is power and we are living in a different world compared to two decades ago:

When you can end points with your forehand twice as often as Federer did, you’re doing something right. The only players even close to the Brazilian’s winner rate end up losing far more points, probably because they need to take many more risks to get that small sliver of positive outcomes.

Fonseca's win percentage increases also strongly with the length of the rallies, which is in my book a fantastic sign for a tallish youngster. Alcaraz and a younger Sinner showed a similar pattern. FAA, on the other hand, relied very early on his great serve.

He also keeps winning return points at a fine clip, showcased by the number of dominant sets. His body seems to be quite mature, far closer to Alcaraz than Sinner in this regard.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Interesting, all the data seems to indicate Fonseca is set for big things.

Let's see how the 2025 season plays out for him.

I'm thinking a deep run in a slam will happen at some point

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting, all the data seems to indicate Fonseca is set for big things.

Let's see how the 2025 season plays out for him.

I'm thinking a deep run in a slam will happen at some point

He looks physically more mature than most at that age, so that would help too.

 

[Clay lover]

Glad to know he got through qualifiers. That 1st round vs Rublev is gonna be on my watch list

 

[Hitman]

Joao is on the verge of turning heads.

 

[Darrell]

Glad to know he got through qualifiers. That 1st round vs Rublev is gonna be on my watch list

I have that match circled. If Fonseca wins, I really wouldn't call it an upset based on how Rublev played last year.

 

[tennis3]

Joao Fonseca and Damage Down the Line​

Sounds like a great name for his band

 

[Kafel69]

way, way too much hype and pressure on this young kid. i hope he can hold up mentally. look what happened to Alcaraz after winning his first Wimbledon and the kind of pressure that was put on him then.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Alcaraz was already beating Top 5 at slams at his age and getting the "next Nadal" hype

Fonseca will be fine

 

[GRASScaraz]

Hugh Clarke also agrees

A Thread of Order​

2025 Predictions​

Fonseca finishes top 20 if…

He stays healthy and plays a full season​

This one is my wild pick. I had this in my drafts before the nextgen finals event, mind you, but I had the ranking at 40.

While Fonseca is nowhere near as physically developed as Alcaraz was at 18, I get that same feeling watching him play.

There’s no ‘if’ in this kid’s game. There is only when. The quality of his ball-striking, the technique off the ground, and the improved serve throughout 2024, is already of a top-20 calibre. We’re just waiting for the legs to catch up to the arms.

 

[Move]

Sounds like a great name for his band

It (Damage Down the Line) would also be a great TTW poster profile name !

 

[Rovesciarete]

It (Damage Down the Line) would also be a great TTW poster profile name !

Sackmann’s words, not mine. I love his writing style,

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

A win in Round 1 would be a major breakthrough for Fonseca.
A loss to this kid would be psychologically devastating for Rublev. Rublev might never recover.
Fully expect the experienced Rublev to take care of business.

 

[bnjkn]

If Fonseca wins, "how many slams will Fonseca win in his career?". If he loses, "false dawn exposed. Fonseca is Finnish".

 

[Aabye5]

If Fonseca wins, "how many slams will Fonseca win in his career?". If he loses, "false dawn exposed. Fonseca is Finnish".

Do you want to go ahead and post both now

 

[aldeayeah]

Fonseca just beat Rublev in straights.

The last two points? Backhand winner down the line, and forehand winner down the line.

It seems Suckmann may have been on to something. However, his serve has been the real highlight IMO.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Fonseca just beat Rublev in straights.

The last two points? Backhand winner down the line, and forehand winner down the line.

it seems Suckmann may have been on to something

Nice ad hominem at somebody who has been proven right - again. Damage down the line indeed.

 

[aldeayeah]

Nice ad hominem at somebody who has been proven right - again. Damage down the line indeed.

I have nothing against the guy (although his top 100 list was highly questionable). I just can't help giving derisive nicknames. Somebody help me.

 

[FlatShot_V]

Fully expect the experienced Rublev to take care of business.

Haha

I'm completely losing it here. I'm trying to keep expectations healthy but this might be our new Guga Kuerten.

#FONSEQUIZADO

 

[Rovesciarete]

I have nothing against the guy (although his top 100 list was highly questionable). I just can't help giving derisive nicknames. Somebody help me.

You mean his top 128? Well I love stats. Everybody can have his opinions but things like Elo help us to do better.

Crazy that Fonseca won 33 against 19 points in the 5-8 rallies, scoring 16 winners to Rublev's 4. Show his ability to dominate baseline rallies, no clear weak points to attack for his opponents. The tour will probe a lot, trying to find some for their game plan.

I'm trying to keep expectations healthy but this might be our new Guga Kuerten.

#FONSEQUIZADO

Expect him to do better than Kuerten, too much points towards that which I can't negate. Injuries, bad lack can always happen, but his class is clear and his head more than sound.

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

A shocking upset.
We may have finally found the new Big Three.
Sinner, Alcaraz and Fonseca.

 

[pedrogcr]

way, way too much hype and pressure on this young kid. i hope he can hold up mentally. look what happened to Alcaraz after winning his first Wimbledon and the kind of pressure that was put on him then.

Poor Alcaraz.. All that pressure made him win only 2 of the next 5 Grand Slams (in a year he injured a lot).
What a disappointment!

 

[helterskelter]

I have nothing against the guy (although his top 100 list was highly questionable). I just can't help giving derisive nicknames. Somebody help me.

And yet when others dub you "TTW's ADF," you engage in DARVO. Unless you come up with an alternative nickname for your good self, you will thus be seen as one who can dish it out but can't take it.

 

[aldeayeah]

And yet when others dub you "TTW's ADF," you engage in DARVO. Unless you come up with an alternative nickname for your good self, you will thus be seen as one who can dish it out but can't take it.

My love of truth won't allow me to stand for an epithet as divorced from reality as that one!

If anything I look a liiiiiitle bit like PCB. It's the Roman nose you see.

 

[helterskelter]

My love of truth won't allow me to stand for an epithet as divorced from reality as that one!

If anything I look a liiiiiitle bit like PCB. It's the Roman nose you see.

Fair enough. I actually thought PCB is also a little fairer than most Spaniards, though not as much as ADF.

Good win for PCB in R1. Tough match against Shelton up next though.

 

[tennis3]

If Fonseca wins, "how many slams will Fonseca win in his career?".

Anything less than 25 Slams is failure for this guy.

 

[bnjkn]

Anything less than 25 Slams is failure for this guy.

Right. Hopefully I won't have to post "Fonseca is a 20 slam wonder mug".

 

[Rovesciarete]

I have written before that 10+ W% seem to be a sign of a particular talent package. Lots of great baseliners on this top list and a certain Bublik.* Fonseca looks good, but suffers in 7-9% category like Djokovic. This might indicate a will to finish the point quickly, maybe fearing the own legs - just as elder Novak. Sincaraz, De Minaur, Fils and Tien are especially strong in 7-9 and 10+ which shows they can usually trust them and their firepower.

Player	1-3 W%​	4-6 W%​	7-9 W%​	10+ W%​
Jannik Sinner	55.4%​	58.3%​	54.1%​	60.2%​
Arthur Fils	49.5%​	53.9%​	53.0%​	57.4%​
Joao Fonseca	51.7%​	50.0%​	48.3%​	55.9%​
Alexander Bublik	50.2%​	48.6%​	52.8%​	55.3%​
Carlos Alcaraz	53.6%​	56.7%​	54.5%​	54.7%​
Learner Tien	47.2%​	52.3%​	53.4%​	53.6%​
Alex De Minaur	48.6%​	49.5%​	55.7%​	53.1%​
Novak Djokovic	53.2%​	53.2%​	49.9%​	52.9%​
Jack Draper	51.6%​	51.5%​	52.6%​	52.4%​
Lorenzo Musetti	51.9%​	50.4%​	51.0%​	51.7%​

I find it also remarkable that all stroke potency numbers, bar Bublik and the backhand of Fils, are among the top of the tour. Clearly you need fine groundstrokes to perform very well in long rallies.

*Only people with 14 matches plus.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

He has one year to prove his worth, if he fails to make top 10 or win a masters at 20 then it’s over for him , he needs to earn his hype.

 

[Rovesciarete]

He has one year to prove his worth, if he fails to make top 10 or win a masters at 20 then it’s over for him , he needs to earn his hype.

I franky don't care about the hype around him, or big titles in the next year but the progress he makes. Was never bothered by Sinner's early lack of a master's title despite his obvious quality and steady improvement.

He especially needs to strengthen his body without over-training or over-loading and good things will come.

 

[Rosstour]

I franky don't care about the hype around him, or big titles in the next year but the progress he makes. Was never bothered by Sinner's early lack of a master's title despite his obvious quality and steady improvement.

He especially needs to strengthen his body without over-training or over-loading and good things will come.

He has everything except movement, if he can improve that enough, that’s the key

 

[TennisGrandpA]

He has everything except movement, if he can improve that enough, that’s the key

True, his return is also average , he moves very bad for his height.

 

[Rovesciarete]

True, his return is also average , he moves very bad for his height.

His return seems to be indeed a problem, the win in Basel might be a sign. If you look at the past winners they all are more biased towards attacking.

With physical improvement he will gain also in this category, but he is clearly not at the return levels Sinner and Alcaraz were at his age...

 

[RSJfan]

Credit where it’s due, please. He’s already top tier at ear cupping and pointing at his head. I think he’s even further along in this area than Charlie was at the same age.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

His return seems to be indeed a problem, the win in Basel might be a sign. If you look at the past winners they all are more biased towards attacking.

With physical improvement he will gain also in this category, but he is clearly not at the return levels Sinner and Alcaraz were at his age...

He’s not a slam material , will never win a slam

 

[Rovesciarete]

He’s not a slam material , will never win a slam

I wouldn't be sure about that. Strong environment, good height, lots of talent and so very young. Not everybody can be as precocious as Alcaraz. Seems that is for Spaniards only.

 

[Rosstour]

He’s not a slam material , will never win a slam

I think he’s much more likely to win a Slam than strapping young alpha lad Draper

 

[TennisGrandpA]

I think he’s much more likely to win a Slam than strapping young alpha lad Draper

Both will end up with zero slams, don’t understand hype around Draper lol

 

[ChrisJR3264]

I wouldn't be sure about that. Strong environment, good height, lots of talent and so very young. Not everybody can be as precocious as Alcaraz. Seems that is for Spaniards only.

Sinner fans run off talent at 18 YO bc they’re not alcaraz yet don’t realize their beloved doper took a while to hit his stride (22) with some controversial PED failures that potentially cured his stamina struggles.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I think he’s much more likely to win a Slam than strapping young alpha lad Draper

Draper has been lambasted by so many injuries that we have a dilemma: He had some great performances despite health issues, but how much will they impact his future?

In short doing well despite is a great trait, but getting injured in itself is bad. Love his fighting spirit and hope that he won't be affected to much by athletic issues.

I always value achievements of yet physically underdeveloped players a lot higher than those of athletes in their prime. Fonseca winning a 500 is obviously more impressive than De Minaur doing it.

P.S: Musetti is an interesting case of player improving considerably but who has been unable to win a tournament for two years or so.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

Sinner fans run off talent at 18 YO bc they’re not alcaraz yet don’t realize their beloved doper took a while to hit his stride (22) with some controversial PED failures that potentially cured his stamina struggles.

Your beloved Rune failed to make impact in slams while your new beloved player Fonseca is already 19 and doesn’t look promising at all

 

[RSJfan]

Draper has been lambasted by so many injuries that we have a dilemma: He had some great performances despite health issues, but how much will they impact his future?

…

What do you mean, we, Kemosabe?

 

[sherpa]

In all honesty if you take Sinner and Alcaraz out of any tournament you would be hard pressed to pick a winner as the rest of them have been around for a decent amount of time without really stepping up. I can't see why Fonseca can't be the next best with the right coaching and attitude as he certainly has the weapons.

 

[Aabye5]

In all honesty if you take Sinner and Alcaraz out of any tournament you would be hard pressed to pick a winner as the rest of them have been around for a decent amount of time without really stepping up. I can't see why Fonseca can't be the next best with the right coaching and attitude as he certainly has the weapons.

He's certainly shown he can make deep runs, I think the two questions now is how consistent is he going to be and can he compete with the rest of the top 10 outside of Sinner/Alcaraz

 

[Rovesciarete]

I can't see why Fonseca can't be the next best with the right coaching and attitude as he certainly has the weapons.

He's certainly shown he can make deep runs, I think the two questions now is how consistent is he going to be and can he compete with the rest of the top 10 outside of Sinner/Alcaraz

Much depends on his physical progress. When he seems tired when he often goes for too much. On quick Basel Indoor he could hit through players nicely, saving a lot of energy.

A very dangerous opponent early on down under.

 

[ChrisJR3264]

Your beloved Rune failed to make impact in slams while your new beloved player Fonseca is already 19 and doesn’t look promising at all

Please elaborate about my “beloved rune and Fonseca?”
Where did I say they “would “ make an impact?
You mistake a deep root analysis of their talent and where their game needs to grow and take it as favoritism and a “he will do” assessment.

Reading comprehension at its finest. Karue was right about folks on pro player TTW forum.