Joao Fonseca and Damage Down the Line

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
A great article by Jeff Sackmann, which underlines aspects of the qualities the Brazilian has shown so far:

The Fonseca difference

It’s not about tactics, it’s good old-fashioned power and precision. Fonseca’s forehand isn’t innovative, and it doesn’t need to be. If he hits his shots in more or less the same directions that his peers do, he’s probably doing something right. It means that at age 18, he has already internalized pro tactics. The difference is that he’s hitting those forehands harder, and he’s often landing them closer to the lines, something hinted at by his low rate of down-the-middle forehands.

Power is power and we are living in a different world compared to two decades ago:

When you can end points with your forehand twice as often as Federer did, you’re doing something right. The only players even close to the Brazilian’s winner rate end up losing far more points, probably because they need to take many more risks to get that small sliver of positive outcomes.


Fonseca's win percentage increases also strongly with the length of the rallies, which is in my book a fantastic sign for a tallish youngster. Alcaraz and a younger Sinner showed a similar pattern. FAA, on the other hand, relied very early on his great serve.

He also keeps winning return points at a fine clip, showcased by the number of dominant sets. His body seems to be quite mature, far closer to Alcaraz than Sinner in this regard.
 
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Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Interesting, all the data seems to indicate Fonseca is set for big things.

Let's see how the 2025 season plays out for him.

I'm thinking a deep run in a slam will happen at some point

He looks physically more mature than most at that age, so that would help too.
 

Kafel69

Rookie
way, way too much hype and pressure on this young kid. i hope he can hold up mentally. look what happened to Alcaraz after winning his first Wimbledon and the kind of pressure that was put on him then.
 

GRASScaraz

Hall of Fame
Hugh Clarke also agrees

A Thread of Order


2025 Predictions​

Fonseca finishes top 20 if…

He stays healthy and plays a full season

This one is my wild pick. I had this in my drafts before the nextgen finals event, mind you, but I had the ranking at 40.

While Fonseca is nowhere near as physically developed as Alcaraz was at 18, I get that same feeling watching him play.

There’s no ‘if’ in this kid’s game. There is only when. The quality of his ball-striking, the technique off the ground, and the improved serve throughout 2024, is already of a top-20 calibre. We’re just waiting for the legs to catch up to the arms.
 

Better_Call_Raul

Hall of Fame
A win in Round 1 would be a major breakthrough for Fonseca.
A loss to this kid would be psychologically devastating for Rublev. Rublev might never recover.
Fully expect the experienced Rublev to take care of business.

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aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
Fonseca just beat Rublev in straights.

The last two points? Backhand winner down the line, and forehand winner down the line.

It seems Suckmann may have been on to something. However, his serve has been the real highlight IMO.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Fonseca just beat Rublev in straights.

The last two points? Backhand winner down the line, and forehand winner down the line.

it seems Suckmann may have been on to something

Nice ad hominem at somebody who has been proven right - again. Damage down the line indeed.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
I have nothing against the guy (although his top 100 list was highly questionable). I just can't help giving derisive nicknames. Somebody help me.

You mean his top 128? Well I love stats. Everybody can have his opinions but things like Elo help us to do better.

Crazy that Fonseca won 33 against 19 points in the 5-8 rallies, scoring 16 winners to Rublev's 4. Show his ability to dominate baseline rallies, no clear weak points to attack for his opponents. The tour will probe a lot, trying to find some for their game plan.

I'm trying to keep expectations healthy but this might be our new Guga Kuerten.

#FONSEQUIZADO

Expect him to do better than Kuerten, too much points towards that which I can't negate. Injuries, bad lack can always happen, but his class is clear and his head more than sound.
 

pedrogcr

Semi-Pro
way, way too much hype and pressure on this young kid. i hope he can hold up mentally. look what happened to Alcaraz after winning his first Wimbledon and the kind of pressure that was put on him then.
Poor Alcaraz.. All that pressure made him win only 2 of the next 5 Grand Slams (in a year he injured a lot).
What a disappointment!
 
I have nothing against the guy (although his top 100 list was highly questionable). I just can't help giving derisive nicknames. Somebody help me.

And yet when others dub you "TTW's ADF," you engage in DARVO. Unless you come up with an alternative nickname for your good self, you will thus be seen as one who can dish it out but can't take it. ;)
 
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aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
And yet when others dub you "TTW's ADF," you engage in DARVO. Unless you come up with an alternative nickname for your good self, you will thus be seen as one who can dish it out but can't take it. ;)
My love of truth won't allow me to stand for an epithet as divorced from reality as that one!

If anything I look a liiiiiitle bit like PCB. It's the Roman nose you see.
 
My love of truth won't allow me to stand for an epithet as divorced from reality as that one!

If anything I look a liiiiiitle bit like PCB. It's the Roman nose you see.

Fair enough. I actually thought PCB is also a little fairer than most Spaniards, though not as much as ADF.

Good win for PCB in R1. Tough match against Shelton up next though.
 
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