Karatsev to become the most efficient Grand Slam player of all-time

What will be Karatsev's GS W-L ratio after 2021 RG?

  • 6-2 (75.0)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 7-2 (77.8)

    Votes: 1 7.1%
  • 8-2 (80.0, under Murray, over Edberg)

    Votes: 3 21.4%
  • 9-2 (81.8, under Lendl, over McEnroe)

    Votes: 1 7.1%
  • 10-2 (83.3, under Rosewall, over Connors)

    Votes: 2 14.3%
  • 11-2 (84.6, under Laver, over Sampras)

    Votes: 1 7.1%
  • 12-1 (92.3, The GOAT)

    Votes: 6 42.9%

  • Total voters
    14
  • Poll closed .
Big things are going to happen.

Grand Slam win-loss rate
active players marked with an asterisk

(as it stands after 2021 RG 1R)
1. Borg 141-16 89.8
2. *Nadal 287-40 87.8
3. *Djokovic 304-45 87.1
4. *Federer 363-59 86.0
5. *Karatsev 6-1 85.7

6. Laver 45-8 84.9
7. Sampras 203-38 84.2
8. Rosewall 171-34 83.4
9. Connors 233-49 82.6
10. Lendl 222-49 81.9
11. McEnroe 167-38 81.5
12. Agassi 224-53 80.9
13. Becker 163-40 80.3
14. *Murray 190-47 80.2
15. Edberg 178-47 79.1

Let's assume Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Karatsev all stay undefeated in four opening rounds:

(after 2021 RG 2R)
1. Borg 141-16 89.8
2. *Nadal 288-40 87.8
3. *Karatsev 7-1 87.5
4. *Djokovic 305-45 87.1
5. *Federer 364-59 86.1


(after 2021 RG 3R)
1. Borg 141-16 89.8
2. *Karatsev 8-1 88.9
3. *Nadal 289-40 87.8
4. *Djokovic 306-45 87.1
5. *Federer 365-59 86.1


(after 2021 RG 4R)
1. *Karatsev 9-1 90.0
2. Borg 141-16 89.8
3. *Nadal 290-40 87.9
4. *Djokovic 307-45 87.2
5. *Federer 366-59 86.1


That's huge.

 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Big things are going to happen.

Grand Slam win-loss rate
active players marked with an asterisk

(as it stands after 2021 RG 1R)
1. Borg 141-16 89.8
2. *Nadal 287-40 87.8
3. *Djokovic 304-45 87.1
4. *Federer 363-59 86.0
5. *Karatsev 6-1 85.7

6. Laver 45-8 84.9
7. Sampras 203-38 84.2
8. Rosewall 171-34 83.4
9. Connors 233-49 82.6
10. Lendl 222-49 81.9
11. McEnroe 167-38 81.5
12. Agassi 224-53 80.9
13. Becker 163-40 80.3
14. *Murray 190-47 80.2
15. Edberg 178-47 79.1

Let's assume Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Karatsev all stay undefeated in four opening rounds:

(after 2021 RG 2R)
1. Borg 141-16 89.8
2. *Nadal 288-40 87.8
3. *Karatsev 7-1 87.5
4. *Djokovic 305-45 87.1
5. *Federer 364-59 86.1


(after 2021 RG 3R)
1. Borg 141-16 89.8
2. *Karatsev 8-1 88.9
3. *Nadal 289-40 87.8
4. *Djokovic 306-45 87.1
5. *Federer 365-59 86.1


(after 2021 RG 4R)
1. *Karatsev 9-1 90.0
2. Borg 141-16 89.8
3. *Nadal 290-40 87.9
4. *Djokovic 307-45 87.2
5. *Federer 366-59 86.1


That's huge.

So you’re saying he needs to win his 4th round match and then retire?
 

SonnyT

Hall of Fame
Poor Andy has by far the least Slam crowns on the list!

If he didn't have to face Big3 slam after slam, surely he would have 8-10 Slams!
 
Karatsev should beat Kohlschreiber, but thereafter things become tricky. Both Schwartzman and Basilashvili are likely to be tough opponents for him. I think both are 50-50 matches, but if so, that puts his chances of making the quarter-finals at around 25%. (25% exactly if he were guaranteed to play Schwartzman in round 3 and Basilashvili in round 4 and both were exactly 50-50 matches, but there is some chance of Karatsev losing to Kohlschreiber, and a pretty significant chance of Schwartzman losing to Bedene, or Basilashvili losing to one out of Alcaraz, Bagnis, and Struff. And, of course, there is some chance of Karatsev losing to Bedene, Alcaraz, Bagnis, or Struff. Other than Bagnis, they'd all probably have a decent outside chance against him).
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Karatsev should beat Kohlschreiber, but thereafter things become tricky. Both Schwartzman and Basilashvili are likely to be tough opponents for him. I think both are 50-50 matches, but if so, that puts his chances of making the quarter-finals at around 25%. (25% exactly if he were guaranteed to play Schwartzman in round 3 and Basilashvili in round 4 and both were exactly 50-50 matches, but there is some chance of Karatsev losing to Kohlschreiber, and a pretty significant chance of Schwartzman losing to Bedene, or Basilashvili losing to one out of Alcaraz, Bagnis, and Struff. And, of course, there is some chance of Karatsev losing to Bedene, Alcaraz, Bagnis, or Struff. Other than Bagnis, they'd all probably have a decent outside chance against him).
I expect AK to get by Schwartzman (favorable matchup), then the marquis tricky one will be Alcaraz, who should beat Basilashvili.
 
I expect AK to get by Schwartzman (favorable matchup), then the marquis tricky one will be Alcaraz, who should beat Basilashvili.
What reason is there to expect Alcaraz to beat Basilashvili? Sure, he's shown some promise this year, but Basilashvili has won two titles, one of them on clay.

Perhaps Karatsev is slight favorite against Schwartzman, but he's certainly not heavy favorite. Schwartzman has at least a decent chance of beating him.
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
I expect AK to get by Schwartzman (favorable matchup), then the marquis tricky one will be Alcaraz, who should beat Basilashvili.
Karatsev has issued two beatings to Schwartzman this year and Schwartzman has surprisingly looked terrible this year.

I see a lot of hype about this Alcaraz kid but it’s hard to take him seriously at all when he was near double breadsticked against Nadal at Madrid. To win only 3 games is pretty sad if you’re hyped to be the next great clay court phenom.
 

pj80

Legend
I expect Aslan to get to Rafa....his first 2 slam losses will be AO SF vs Djoker and RG QF vs Rafa....
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
I expect Aslan to get to Rafa....his first 2 slam losses will be AO SF vs Djoker and RG QF vs Rafa....
I would love to see Karatsev get a shot as at least he will try to take the ball on the rise, rush Nadal and go after him. He will probably go down with a boatload of errors but it’s better than watching some pusher get moved around by Nadal.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
What reason is there to expect Alcaraz to beat Basilashvili? Sure, he's shown some promise this year, but Basilashvili has won two titles, one of them on clay.

Perhaps Karatsev is slight favorite against Schwartzman, but he's certainly not heavy favorite. Schwartzman has at least a decent chance of beating him.
2021 Karatsev is a lot better than 2021 Schwartzman.

And 2021 Alcaraz is Rafa light.
 
2021 Karatsev is a lot better than 2021 Schwartzman.

And 2021 Alcaraz is Rafa light.
Alcaraz is definitely Bull Calf, but that doesn't mean he is likely to beat Basilashvili. I think he has a decent outside chance, but that Basilashvili goes in favorite.

Roland Garros clay should be favorable to Schwartzman in a match with Karatsev, when compared to either the Australian Open or Melbourne. I wouldn't rule Schwartzman out at all. But it is true that Schwartzman hasn't had a great year so far, whereas Karatsev has.
 

tudwell

Legend
What were the Big 3's percentages when they reached 16 losses?
I looked this up the other day and then didn't post it. According to Wikipedia (and my counting abilities):

Federer was 29-16 (64.4%)
Nadal was 95-16 (85.6%)
Djokovic was 55-16 (77.5%)

Even as great as Nadal was early on, Borg fairly schools him. Only played three slams a year, though, so after a few years it gets a bit unrepresentative since he was such a more mature player than they were when they hit 16 (which would hold even if they kept up the same clip as him; i.e., playing four slams a year, they'd reach 16 losses faster, at a younger age). Still monstrous, though.
 
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