Last IW started fed's fall, this will start his rise

#4
His performance wasn’t terrible yesterday it’s just his backhand was a puddle. As much as I want to see him play Roland Garros I can’t help but think that yesterday’s match was a sign that it’s a pointless endeavor.
 
#5
Last year he choked but he was holding his own from the baseline and wasn't being outplayed but that loss made him fragile and possibly made him doubt himself in pressure situations which resulted in so many blown opportunities in close sets after that loss last year.

This year he was simply outplayed by Thiems bazooka-like groundstrokes.
It won't be a huge blow to his psyche for sure.Lets see how the year shakes out.I'm hopeful but not really expecting much unlike last year.
 
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oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
#6
His performance wasn’t terrible yesterday it’s just his backhand was a puddle. As much as I want to see him play Roland Garros I can’t help but think that yesterday’s match was a sign that it’s a pointless endeavor.
That's one way to view it. Another way is that the player (Thiem) with less chances to break won the match. It won't always be like that. 3/4 BP > 2/11 BP was the stat of the match and the reason Thiem won.

I'm happy with Fed's current form. And it may get even better.
 
#7
That's one way to view it. Another way is that the player (Thiem) with less chances to break won the match. It won't always be like that. 3/4 BP > 2/11 BP was the stat of the match and the reason Thiem won.

I'm happy with Fed's current form. And it may get even better.
At times like these, you're a most welcome presence around these forums.
 
#8
So he is at LeeD's level now?

Harsh!
Very harsh indeed.

In one of the all-time-great TTW exchanges, even the great LeeD admitted that Federer is more like a 4.5+ who might play some futures or even get close to making a main draw every now and then.

What would you rate the white shirt?
4.5+. of course.
They probably play Q's or Futures or even almost make a main draw, so they're good player's.
That dude in the white shirt is Roger Federer.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
#9
That's one way to view it. Another way is that the player (Thiem) with less chances to break won the match. It won't always be like that. 3/4 BP > 2/11 BP was the stat of the match and the reason Thiem won.

I'm happy with Fed's current form. And it may get even better.
I still say that playing clay is a mistake, unless he needs the points, so my estimate about this decision depends on the answer of that question.

:cool:
 
#17
Stay tuned for the Miami open as I do believe that Roger will make deeper Run then he did last year
Might even make semi finals or finals or win the whole thing
I wouldn't be surprised, he lost his first match in Miami last year.

Interested to see what he does on clay. I imagine it will be a decent boost to his ranking, decent enough to get less difficult draws at least.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
#19
Federer probably shouldn't have lost yesterday, but his form is actually on the rise compared to his drop off after IW last year. That's the positive. He looked pretty bad from the baseline though against Thiem's power, and it seems he has even longer lapses than ever before, like entire sets where he just switches off and starts rushing the net with approaches that would make Roddick proud.

I'm concerned about BO5 matches though. Not to sound all doom and gloom, but it looks like Fed's slam winning days might finally be over unless he produces magic on the grass once more. Not putting it past him, but certainly not expecting it either.

All in all, yeah I'm not happy he lost yesterday, but my expectations are low now anyway so I was just happy he was in a Masters final. If that's the best we get from Federer moving forward then so be it. I'm going to enjoy it.
 
#20
Stay tuned for the Miami open as I do believe that Roger will make deeper Run then he did last year
Might even make semi finals or finals or win the whole thing
Winning the whole thing it's unlikely I would say because conditions don't suit his game.Miami is way too slow and balls move in "slow motion" due to high humidity.
 
#21
At times like these, you're a most welcome presence around these forums.
Thanks.

Reading the reactions, I noticed that some perspectives were lost from this loss.

Look at it this way. Thiem was in Thieminator mode, and he barely edged out a 'decent' Federer. Had 1of2 BPs gone Fed's way in the 3rd game of the 2nd set, the match could've been a routine win 'while' Fed played 'decent'.

This loss was not that bad. It certainly wasn't as bad as how Djokovic lost to PK for example when he had NO chance to win bc he was never really 'up' in the match. Fed was 'up' in this match the whole time until the penultimate game. And it definitely wasn't as bad as how Nadal had to take a month+ off from tennis not daring to face Fed at all to preserve his h2h. It's not like Fed never played Nadal while in pain.

Do recall that Fed was actually 2pts away from the title when Thiem was serving at *4-5, 30-30. And this wasn't even the best Fed this week.

I think he'll be fine going forward :).
 
#22
Last night was a bit depressing. I thought he played better against Del Potro tbh (bar the woeful tie break).

I know we've been down this road before of writing Fed off but - as a fan - I kind of feel like last night might be the beginning of the end, especially now the 100 title thing is already done and finished.

Also, given what happened in the women's final, I wonder if this is a week we'll look back and think that this was where Federer relinquished his magic dust and gave it to a young Bianca Andreescu.
 
#24
Last night was a bit depressing. I thought he played better against Del Potro tbh (bar the woeful tie break).

I know we've been down this road before of writing Fed off but - as a fan - I kind of feel like last night might be the beginning of the end, especially now the 100 title thing is already done and finished.

Also, given what happened in the women's final, I wonder if this is a week we'll look back and think that this was where Federer relinquished his magic dust and gave it to a young Bianca Andreescu.
Its not the end
Fed is finally out of his slump, that's what I believe firmly..
Unlike last year when he started his slump
 
#26
Thanks.

Reading the reactions, I noticed that some perspectives were lost from this loss.

Look at it this way. Thiem was in Thieminator mode, and he barely edged out a 'decent' Federer. Had 1of2 BPs gone Fed's way in the 3rd game of the 2nd set, the match could've been a routine win 'while' Fed played 'decent'.

This loss was not that bad. It certainly wasn't as bad as how Djokovic lost to PK for example when he had NO chance to win bc he was never really 'up' in the match. Fed was 'up' in this match the whole time until the penultimate game. And it definitely wasn't as bad as how Nadal had to take a month+ off from tennis not daring to face Fed at all to preserve his h2h. It's not like Fed never played Nadal while in pain.

Do recall that Fed was actually 2pts away from the title when Thiem was serving at *4-5, 30-30. And this wasn't even the best Fed this week.

I think he'll be fine going forward :).
Yes, it's worth noting that he hasn't really played 'poorly' in quite a few matches now. He seems to have a decent base level at the moment, which is promising. Hoping for a good draw at Miami and genuinely looking forward to the tournament. That hasn't always been the case.
 
#27
That's one way to view it. Another way is that the player (Thiem) with less chances to break won the match. It won't always be like that. 3/4 BP > 2/11 BP was the stat of the match and the reason Thiem won.

I'm happy with Fed's current form. And it may get even better.

The problem I saw, especially moving forward in regard to clay, was the success Thiem had targeting the Federer backhand with heavy deep topspin. Many times Thiem was willing to run around the forehand, taking himself way off the court, to target the backhand and Federer couldn’t make him pay for it. That’s a problem that will be further magnified on red clay.

As I said, in general I don’t think Roger played poorly, there’s no doubt with that form he’s going to be a serious contender on grass. In fact, if he doesn’t have a few mental lapses late in that match he probably should’ve have won. But the Nadal-esque tactics that Thiem employed and had success doing so isn’t a great sign for Roger for the clay season.
 
#28
My takeaways from the loss to Thiem...

1. He had by far the best results out of the Big 3 at IW. Taking Thiem to 3 sets is a lot better than losing to Kohli in 2, or doing whatever the F Nadal did.

2. He has made the Final 3 years running. His level is still there and is fairly consistent for now.
Still not enough to win :)
 
#30
The fundamental question is, will he be as effective rising again like he was during his fall? And he will be, even more so? But until he is, it's going to be hard to verify that I think he'll be more effective.
 
#32
The problem I saw, especially moving forward in regard to clay, was the success Thiem had targeting the Federer backhand with heavy deep topspin. Many times Thiem was willing to run around the forehand, taking himself way off the court, to target the backhand and Federer couldn’t make him pay for it. That’s a problem that will be further magnified on red clay.

As I said, in general I don’t think Roger played poorly, there’s no doubt with that form he’s going to be a serious contender on grass. In fact, if he doesn’t have a few mental lapses late in that match he probably should’ve have won. But the Nadal-esque tactics that Thiem employed and had success doing so isn’t a great sign for Roger for the clay season.
I don't think many people would've defeated the Thiem from the Final- probably only Djokovic and some servebot with a decent groundgame like Anderson/JMDP.
 
#33
As much as I want to see him play Roland Garros I can’t help but think that yesterday’s match was a sign that it’s a pointless endeavor.
I don't think even the most delusional or optimistic Fed fan expects him to win RG or Madrid. The only chance a man almost 38 will win a clay event is if Istanbul was still being contested or some out-of-the-way 250 with an anemic field. So if the hope is that Roger will win a clay event, that is indeed a pointless endeavor. But he's playing to garner points and supposedly to "stay sharp" with his groundstrokes once grass and HC seasons begin. I've always thought it was a mistake for him ever to step foot on clay again since he has no expectation to win and he will lose to journeymen. Roddick agrees:

"'He should never play on clay again. It’s really hard on the body. He shouldn’t. Go ahead, say no now."
 
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#34
C'mon guys, Federer is old. You can't expect anything at this point from him. It's great he got to the IW final but really calling him to suddenly regain his mid 2000's form in 2019 is pretty delusional. I enjoy watching the man play but I'm ready for some young guns to take over.
 
#35
I don't think many people would've defeated the Thiem from the Final- probably only Djokovic and some servebot with a decent groundgame like Anderson/JMDP.
That’s tough to say as Thiem likely wouldn’t have employed the same tactics against someone with a good two handed backhand. And if he did he certainly wouldn’t have had the same amount of success doing it. For instance, Thiem regularly got out of trouble in his service games yesterday by throwing the kicker at Federer’s backhand — that’s not something he would have had as much success doing against a Kei Nishikori for example. That’s not to take anything away from Thiem he played superb and he actually showed me a higher on court intellect than I had previously seen out of him.
 
#36
That’s tough to say as Thiem likely wouldn’t have employed the same tactics against someone with a good two handed backhand. And if he did he certainly wouldn’t have had the same amount of success doing it. For instance, Thiem regularly got out of trouble in his service games yesterday by throwing the kicker at Federer’s backhand — that’s not something he would have had as much success doing against a Kei Nishikori for example. That’s not to take anything away from Thiem he played superb and he actually showed me a higher on court intellect than I had previously seen out of him.
Actually Federer returned better than his average tbh. Nishikori would've been overpowered and Thiem would have many more looks in return games so Nishikori definitely would have very little chance . Thiem probably hits the heaviest ball on tour currently.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
#38
I don't think even the most delusional or optimistic Fed fan expects him to win RG or Madrid. The only chance a man almost 38 will win a clay event is if Istanbul was still being contested or some out-of-the-way 250 with an anemic field. So if the hope is that Roger will win a clay event, that is indeed a pointless endeavor. But he's playing to garner points and supposedly to "stay sharp" with his groundstrokes once grass and HC seasons begin. I've always thought it was a mistake for him ever to step foot on clay again since he has no expectation to win and he will lose to journeymen. Roddick agrees:

"'He should never play on clay again. It’s really hard on the body. He shouldn’t. Go ahead, say no now."

https://www.**************.org/tenn...hould-never-play-on-clay-again--andy-roddick/
I give him an outside chance in Madrid, as the conditions there are most un-clay-like, and that ONLY if the draw opens up for him AND he has a spell of good form.

A lot to ask for for the mere chance to get yet another one with no real significance to anything.

Again, if the points are of no concern for him, he should withdraw from the clay: he will get pummelled by a number of players, and can pick up a number of problems on the way. I don't even understand the reasoning to participate: didn't he win Wimbledon 2017 without setting foot on the surface? Where did the argument that he needs to keep his match practice going and his game "sharp" come from? Certainly not from the available info, I don't think.

:cool:
 
#39
Again, if the points are of no concern for him, he should withdraw from the clay: he will get pummelled by a number of players, and can pick up a number of problems on the way.
Roger hasn't said clay points are of no concern to him, he hasn't addressed the issue of points. Many Fed fans believe he's playing to assure a top 4 seed at Wimbledon. Even with their own seeding system, he needs to stay top 6 to have a chance at a top 4 Wimbledon seed.

I'm hoping he realizes his folly and skips clay again. He has no realistic shot of winning anything and will lose before even reaching the big guns.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
#41
Roger hasn't said clay points are of no concern to him, he hasn't addressed the issue of points. Many Fed fans believe he's playing to assure a top 4 seed at Wimbledon. Even with their own seeding system, he needs to stay top 6 to have a chance at a top 4 Wimbledon seed.

I'm hoping he realizes his folly and skips clay again. He has no realistic shot of winning anything and will lose before even reaching the big guns.
In my opinion he wouldn't address that issue (with ranking points) in detail, as it can backfire on him, and it just isn't feasible to make such calculations on his own (what the competition does does matter too).

Yes, top 4 seed for Wimbledon is absolutely crucial for him, as that is the tournament where his best chances to win another Major are, so he will do the necessary to get those points, even if that means to play on surface which he considers suboptimal for his current situation. Of course, it sounds much cooler to present it like he actually wants to compete, so maybe that is why he makes those statements.

Another potential reason might be sponsor exposure, but I would like to think that Federer has enough say to refuse, if that is damaging to his career. Still 300 mil USD are a lot of money, so he might need to balance between things.

:cool:
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
#42
Roger hasn't said clay points are of no concern to him, he hasn't addressed the issue of points. Many Fed fans believe he's playing to assure a top 4 seed at Wimbledon. Even with their own seeding system, he needs to stay top 6 to have a chance at a top 4 Wimbledon seed.

I'm hoping he realizes his folly and skips clay again. He has no realistic shot of winning anything and will lose before even reaching the big guns.
Based on BeatlesFan comment that Federer can't win anything on clay, I believe that he is locked to win Roland Garros 2019.
 
#43
Playing clay would keep Fed’s body battle ready and not going into a vegetative state tennis-wise. Yea, practicing instead of actual match play does not cut it. It worked in 2017 only because of his lengthy 2016 break from the tour.

Before seeing yesterday’s match I thought IW18 was a blip but it now looks like the norm. So be it. A run to the finals is just as good. Its been a long tough road since AO18 as it should be now that these are his last few years on tour. One more Wimb/USO run to the finals would be nice. Can’t expect anything more.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
#44
Federer returned quite well against Thiem. That is my positive takeaway from that match. Thiem aced Fed just once. Fed also got a lot of Thiem's first serves back into play. Despite the couple of hiccups during the match(blown cakewalk forehand that would have given Fed triple break point against Thiem and the 2nd straight drop shot attempt that led to him eventually getting broken at 5-5 in the 3rd), I was quite pleased with Fed's play.

Fed is playing better than I thought he would. I figured that 2019 was when Fed's play would drop markedly; even worse than the last half of 2018. But so far, he's playing decent tennis.
 
#46
Actually Federer returned better than his average tbh. Nishikori would've been overpowered and Thiem would have many more looks in return games so Nishikori definitely would have very little chance . Thiem probably hits the heaviest ball on tour currently.
Actually, statistically he returned worse than his fifty-two match average. I know you’re a tennis newb and all but throwing chicken crap into the wind and hoping it sticks doesn’t work around here.
 
#49
He didn't play too bad this tourney. Made it further than Nadal and Djokovic and lost in a close 3-setter to one of the best young players on the tour. He's absolutely incredible for a 37-year-old and still darn good for a player of any age. I'm interested to see what Miami brings
 
#50
Retrerer coming soon really. Announcement the end of this year or maybe just one more year out of him. I think if this year doesn't yield much more he'll just bow out.
 
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