StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
You want to say he isn't?
Let's Face It: Someone Besides Nadal Already Betterer Than Djokovic and Federer at Roland Garros
- Thread starter Meles
- Start date
Meles
Bionic Poster
Premature is fair. I'm just showing the TTW approved slam results and Thiem is betterer by this measure. I follow Thiem closely and I must say that I was shocked to see him at well past 25 years of age hit his speed peak at IW and Barcelona was also quite good. After a few years being a bit more guarded about his prospects off clay, Thiem is suddenly viable if he truly is this late of a bloomer, and my eyes say this is the case, but they are rose colored.
LOL, but in about three years you can throw that out the door.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Sorry. No. Thiem just beat peak Djoko at RG; he probably would've won if Thiem had not been in the way. And of course the OP data is undeniable that Thiem is betterer on clay at the same age.Federer and Djoko are better on their worst surface than Thiem is at his best.
I would love Thiem ro win the FO, but lets wait and see if he can do it first
Given Djoko's overall clay record I'm not so sure its his worst surface; he was lucky at a lot of Wimbys not to hit Murray. Of course Nadal on clay has left Djokerer without a pile of RG trophies for each.
D
Deleted member 762343
Guest
Premature is fair. I'm just showing the TTW approved slam results and Thiem is betterer by this measure. I follow Thiem closely and I must say that I was shocked to see him at well past 25 years of age hit his speed peak at IW and Barcelona was also quite good. After a few years being a bit more guarded about his prospects off clay, Thiem is suddenly viable if he truly is this late of a bloomer, and my eyes say this is the case, but they are rose colored.
LOL, but in about three years you can throw that out the door.
That's entirely speculative, the future isn't written in stone. You can't say he's already better at RG because he will likely do something he hasn't done yet. What I'm seeing right now is that by 25, Federer had disputed the same number of finals at RG (only one final for Djoko but he faced Nadal in SF more than once).
I do agree to say that he'll likely win 2 or 3 RG titles but will Nadal be around when that happens ? This "detail" will have to be taken into account.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I would say both definitely are. Sure Djokerer benefited from the Poly Era homogenizing things a bit, but lets get real Kuerten won 1997 RG as the only player with Poly, a huge tech advantage. 2000 and 2001 were more legit, but Poly still was not being utilized by the top players off clay. Djokovic, Thiem, Federer, and heaven forbid Nadal would have run rough shod over the clay field if they were the only players with Poly in their rackets.
Poly is one step away from spaghetti strings that were banned.https://www.essentialtennis.com/a-bit-of-history-the-vilas-streak/
Meles
Bionic Poster
Only slams count of course and they had none on clay by age 26, ergo inferior to Thiem on clay who had betterer results.
Peak-Djoko?? It was far from Peak-Djoko and he was playing inside a tornado.
Look, i want Thiem to win RG just as much as you do, but i wont hype a player that doesnt deserve it. There is no excuse for Thiem not to have won a clay masters when 3 year younger Zed has won three.
Both Djoko and Fed have had seasons with more than 60% of games won on clay, Thiem lacks the consistency.
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
What surface change? USO is currently slow, are they altering it to speed it up?Hopefully El Vampiro will roll him onto hard courts now that his points position is quite secure rather than trying to vulture Hamburg or something (Thiem just not stimulated by those events it seems).
Thiem has no chance at Wimbledon, but just maybe if he serves lights out he might get some good points. Frankly he had no right to take Bendych to five sets in 2017, but he did. Wimbledon is all about serve so Thiem could pull it together. My hopes are on Meddy, Tsits, FAA, and perhaps Zverev who seems to be waking up with Lendl finally back on the job.Same old, same old rinse and repeat pigeons just not that interesting. Big 3 all looking quite tasty for Wimby so Diamond Age rolls on.
US Open Series intrigues me because I only heard of the surface change at the US Open. Do they now roll this out to all the other events in the Series? If this is the case then we'll see before the US Open if Thiem is able to return the biggest servers once again and become a threat. On paper this helps Djokodal and the youngerer players in my eyes. Its going to be quite a nice juncture of the year given that Tsits, Zedrot, FAA, Demon, and Shapo all had some good results over the last few years (Rublev US Open 2017 comes to mind as well.) Even Khachanov should like it, but not so sure about Medvedev.
Towny
Hall of Fame
By the end of the year of turning 25/26
Clay masters titles
Federer - 4
Djokovic - 4
Thiem - 0
Clay masters finals
Federer - 8
Djokovic - 8
Thiem - 2
Clay masters SFs
Djokovic - 12
Federer - 8
Thiem - 4
RG finals
Federer - 2
Thiem - 2
Djokovic - 1
RG SFs
Djokovic - 5
Thiem - 4
Federer - 3
Results against Nadal at RG:
Djokovic - 6-4 6-4 RET, 7-5 6-4 6-2, 6-4 6-2 7-6, 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5, 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 9-7 (Sets won = 3/17 17.6%) (Games won = 74/175 42.3%)
Federer - 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-3, 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6, 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4 (Sets won = 3/12 25%) (Games won = 49/113 43.4%)
Thiem - 6-3 6-4 6-0, 6-4 6-3 6-2, 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 (Sets won = 1/10 10%) (Games won = 28/87 32.2%)
Djokovic and Federer both FAR better at the masters than Thiem. Not even close. Similar results at RG, Thiem slightly ahead. But both Federer and Djokovic, though they lost all matches, were clearly better against Nadal than Thiem. He managed to get a set this year, but was routined by Nadal in 2017 & 2018. Federer took him to 4 every time they played, Djokovic even took Nadal to 5. So this indicates they played at a higher level too. So no, Thiem is not better than Djokovic and Federer were at an equivalent age.
Clay masters titles
Federer - 4
Djokovic - 4
Thiem - 0
Clay masters finals
Federer - 8
Djokovic - 8
Thiem - 2
Clay masters SFs
Djokovic - 12
Federer - 8
Thiem - 4
RG finals
Federer - 2
Thiem - 2
Djokovic - 1
RG SFs
Djokovic - 5
Thiem - 4
Federer - 3
Results against Nadal at RG:
Djokovic - 6-4 6-4 RET, 7-5 6-4 6-2, 6-4 6-2 7-6, 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5, 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 9-7 (Sets won = 3/17 17.6%) (Games won = 74/175 42.3%)
Federer - 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-3, 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6, 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4 (Sets won = 3/12 25%) (Games won = 49/113 43.4%)
Thiem - 6-3 6-4 6-0, 6-4 6-3 6-2, 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 (Sets won = 1/10 10%) (Games won = 28/87 32.2%)
Djokovic and Federer both FAR better at the masters than Thiem. Not even close. Similar results at RG, Thiem slightly ahead. But both Federer and Djokovic, though they lost all matches, were clearly better against Nadal than Thiem. He managed to get a set this year, but was routined by Nadal in 2017 & 2018. Federer took him to 4 every time they played, Djokovic even took Nadal to 5. So this indicates they played at a higher level too. So no, Thiem is not better than Djokovic and Federer were at an equivalent age.
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tennisaddict
Bionic Poster
If slams only count then Thiem is as irrelevant as Dustin Brown
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
Just remember, I don't predict, I just describe. Just like RG this year, I looked at all years that Nadal has won, saw that his stats this year are in line with all the other years he won and said that to me he looked like the most likely winner based on that.Just look at the results by age, case closed for Thiem. The stats are just guilding the lily and something I enjoy greatly. Please let @Gary Duane and @falstaff78 if you know of some better experts than here on TTW.
There are guys who defy stats: Stan is one. I can't explain Stan, predict Stan. He's an anomaly. Slam winners who win only once are impossible to predict. It's like trying to predict where lighting will strike next.
So far Thiem's numbers are about right for a one time RG winner, so if he breaks through it won't surprise me. But if he becomes a multiple winner of RG I will be totally shocked unless his overall stats on clay improve. I say that because certain weakness are reflected in the overall stats.
One look at his career and you can see he does not have an ATG profile. And even this year you can see around 53% of points, around 56% of games. Games run highest on clay. Those figures have to come up to make him dominant on clay as others have been in the past. When guys like Djokovic and Murray have made a career or winning something like 32% of games on HC, and HC is harder to win return games on. But Thiem can't break 30% on clay. That HAS to come up for him.
So yes, he can redline for a match and even an event. We've seen that. But RG is still a hope, and two are probably out of the question unless he makes big improvements, and he's running out of time unless - and this is a huge "unless" - unless he also continues to improve as he gets to 30.
ghostofMecir
Legend
Meles
Bionic Poster
The OP shows Thiem's run of SF, SF, F, F betterer than Djokerer at the same age. Its ridiculous to compare an entire career when Thiem is still at the start of his peak years. We can say Nole had some early SFs at RG, but the stats at RG for those are not all that impressive. Thiem also didn't just face Nadal he also faced Djokovic a lot on clay and at his best in 2016 while Thiem was not even in his prime.
Djokovic early clay masters:
2008 Rome - played no one really and still took 3 with Wawrinka in final
2009 he had two finals with Nadal and of course Madrid SF
2011 Djoko did well, but not exactly dominate except the two wins with Nadal and it was impressive with Madrid and Rome back to back. Thiem gave Nadal good final in 2017 Madrid and beat him in Rome, but we know what happened in SF.
And the final.
And RG.
Here is early prime Thiem vs peak Nadal year:
21/2017 SF FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-3 6-4 6-0 1.25 - 4.00
19/2017 QF Rome Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-3 5.50 - 1.14
18/2017 F Madrid Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-6(8) 6-4 1.14 - 5.00
17/2017 F Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-1 1.25 - 4.00
We can say Thiem is not great at Masters on clay if we wish, but he's got two finals in Madrid and he's beaten Nadal at Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome in his career and these were all prime versions of Nadal. The Rome 2017 beating of Nadal and the Madrid final were impressive for Thiem given he played the same event schedule with Nadal and met him in the finals of all those events save Rome where he won the QF and then had excuse of being a bit tired after all.
Thiem had a ridiculous draw at 2019 Madrid and Federe was no joke at altitude. Losing to Djoko in tiebreakers the next match was quite respectable given his runs at Madrid and Rome.LET'S NOT FORGET THIEM HAS NOT HAD THE BENEFIT OF GOOD SEEDING OFTEN AT THE MAJOR CLAY EVENTS. He had it at 2019 RG, but still the roughest SF and Final combo a player has probably ever seen at RG. If Thiem can keep top 4 seed at Masters events he'll win more.
Subway Tennis
G.O.A.T.
Interesting......
The scary thing about Thiem is that he and Nico Massu have only been working together a short time, and there are already indications that Thiem is going to get quite a bit better under The Vampire's tutelege.
On clay and slow hardcourt, Thiem can and will win everything in the next 8-10 years and have a Kuerten like career PLUS more success on slow ODHC.
Just one added aside, a lot of people seem to be missing the "by age" component of the analysis. I recommend folks re-read OP before getting too wild with the "hot takes".
The scary thing about Thiem is that he and Nico Massu have only been working together a short time, and there are already indications that Thiem is going to get quite a bit better under The Vampire's tutelege.
On clay and slow hardcourt, Thiem can and will win everything in the next 8-10 years and have a Kuerten like career PLUS more success on slow ODHC.
Just one added aside, a lot of people seem to be missing the "by age" component of the analysis. I recommend folks re-read OP before getting too wild with the "hot takes".
tennisaddict
Bionic Poster
Thiem is worse than Gaudio. Gaudio had won the FO by age 25.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Correct, but we do have mitigating circumstance like injury and then Thiem's light play at Rome before RG which did not work well for him initially in his RG matches. I use my eye and the Indian Well's masters win plus Barcelona triumph to say Thiem was much betterer than his stats this year. Madrid was a joke. Who has to face Federer at his favorite clay masters and in great form, Djoko heading to peak clay form, and then possibly Nadal for a draw? The Rome rain situation was not handled well by Thiem and we have a bad stats year.
If we confine ourselves to RG stats which this thread does until you posted non-slam stats
, Thiem's pedigree is unassailable.I've been doing this years and it does work rather well as evidenced by Thiem's continued success. You can't call me wrong when Thiem keeps coming up with the goods at RG year after year. I also rated Tsitsipas rather highly for clay this year and he delivered big time from Estoril onwards. (One can argue, but for a heroic Wawrinka effort Tsits would have made RG SF and Tsits had the worst draw of all time at RG which had to demoralize a touch.)
TTW idiots rail on about younger players not getting slam results, but Tsits had Wawrinka, Federer, Nadal, Thiem or Djoko path to the title. That is a ridiculous draw given that Wawrinka and Federer found form once again at RG.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I'm still too beat up from Thiem's bad end of seasons, even last year's vast improvement was still bad by any reasonable standard. I just posted recently I'm very, very interested to know if the new US Open surface last year is going to be rolled out to the whole series this year? That might give Thiem the small hope of returning the biggest servers on that surface and make him as viable as he seemed at the 2018 US Open.
Thiem faces a lot of younger Diamond Age horses coming up off clay so I think the hard court window unfortunately is now with Nole and Rafa likely to benefit from the change. Some might have thought Zverev would slam the door on Thiem off clay and there is some doubt now, but FAA will be closing that door very quickly. Felix at 18 is the scariest player of all time save Nadal at that age and he's much more of a threat off clay. Thiem will just have to take what he can get off clay even in a few years. And of course Tsitsipas plays Thiem fairly well.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Federe's vacuum era to the rescue eh TA.
Meles
Bionic Poster
This is like Battle of the Bulge with Thieminator as the Germans of course. Just when you guys thought you had him in a box he's broken out on a major offensive and you can't stop him until next clay season.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Good information, but slams only count at TTW and for the most part in this thread.
Thiem would have cleaned up at Hamburg too probably if it was a Masters.
I've discussed Thiem versus Nole at Masters. Some leeway has to be given that right now Thiem has to deal with two great clay players, not just one. Federer had a last gasp at 2011 RG, but past his prime on clay until the recent game and racket changes this year (a minor miracle the Fed clay season robbed by gail force winds at RG.)Federer played a much weaker Nadal in the years under comparison. Djokovic is nearly 4 months older than Thiem in this comparison and Thiem has had extenuating circumstances. THIEM HAD TO PLAY DJOKOVIC IN PEAK FORM THIS YEAR IN THE SF AND THEN PLAY NADAL WITH NO TIME OFF AND STILL TOOK A SET. I seriously doubt Djoko going five with lets say Thiem in 2013 SF would have done any betterer in the final. So yes Thiem is betterer at RG than Djokorer at the same age and its not even close.
tennisaddict
Bionic Poster
Federe's vacuum era to the rescue eh TA.
When no further argument back to good old weak era. LMAO
Meles
Bionic Poster
Djokovic despite that loss won 63% of his games at RG; he was only better in 2016 by games won, all other years lesser. Djoko's first serve game is massively improved which is why he's been on a huge slam hoovering run that Thiem narrowly averted.
Again this thread is not about Masters, but I have replied on Madrid and Rome. LOL. Thiem got screwed at Monte Carlo this year by the wind against Dusan, the whole tournament was a train wreck with that wind.
FFS. Put Federe or Djoko is the same draws Thiem has at the same age and they probably go down as well. Thiem has every excuse with the draws he has faced.
Thiem lost to Zverev in won Masters final and need I remind you that Zedzilla was unbroken in the event and only faced one break point (the first and probably last time we will see that at a clay masters). Zverev has won two of his masters in equally dominant fashion against Djokerer so please.
And he had Nadal beat in Rome last year save the rain delay. Don't blame Thiem for Zverev.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Serveless Coria was quite good I'll admit, but Guadio is like a poster child for vacuum era. His winning would have been like Fognini some how blundering into the RG final and beating Nadal. Both Fognini and Guadio nice players, but please TA.
Towny
Hall of Fame
Thiem has had to deal with both Djokovic and Nadal at RG, but I see no evidence he would've beaten Murray in RG 2016 had Djokovic not played. And he beat Djokovic this year. So I don't think we can say that Djokovic has denied Thiem any RG success. Nadal has blocked him 3 times. At the same age, Federer had been blocked 3 times by Nadal. Djokovic twice or 3 times, depending on how 2008 would have played out.Good information, but slams only count at TTW and for the most part in this thread.
Thiem would have cleaned up at Hamburg too probably if it was a Masters.
Federer played a much weaker Nadal in the years under comparison. Djokovic is nearly 4 months older than Thiem in this comparison and Thiem has had extenuating circumstances. THIEM HAD TO PLAY DJOKOVIC IN PEAK FORM THIS YEAR IN THE SF AND THEN PLAY NADAL WITH NO TIME OFF AND STILL TOOK A SET. I seriously doubt Djoko going five with lets say Thiem in 2013 SF would have done any betterer in the final. So yes Thiem is betterer at RG than Djokorer at the same age and its not even close.
'Much weaker' Nadal? How are you determining that? Nadal lost 1 match on clay from Monte Carlo 2005 to Monte Carlo 2008. Just one. And that was to Federer at Hamburg in 2007, who had already won it 3 times and hadn't lost there since 2003. Nadal lost to Thiem in both 2017 and 18 at the masters. He also lost in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid this year. Pretty clearly better outside RG in 2005-07. At RG itself, he dropped 2 sets outside of Federer in 05 and 06, zero sets in 07. He dropped 1 set outside of Thiem in 18 and 19, zero in 17.
Nadal 2017 is the strongest iteration of Nadal out of 05, 06, 07, 17, 18 and 19. But 07 is pretty much the same level. You can argue that 18 and 19 were stronger versions of Nadal than 05 and 06. Can't say I agree, but happy to concede the point. But 'much' better? Certainly not enough to make up for Federer 05-06 being far more of a challenge to Nadal than Thiem in 18-19. And it goes without saying that Federer was far better in 2007 against Nadal than Thiem in 2017.
Thiem has underperformed against Nadal at RG relative to his performance in Bo3. Big time. And the fact that Thiem has been good enough to beat Nadal in Bo3 masters matches twice but failed to win either tournament is an indication to me that it was more about Nadal playing poorly than Thiem playing well.
Thiem is very good on clay and will very likely win RG in the next few years. But he really isn't on the same level on clay as Djokovic and Federer were at an equivalent age. I know this thread is about RG specifically, but the huge disparity between his performance at the masters compared to Fedovic at the same age, plus his poor performances against Nadal at RG indicate that he isn't on their level.
tennisaddict
Bionic Poster
Serveless Coria was quite good I'll admit, but Guadio is like a poster child for vacuum era. His winning would have been like Fognini some how blundering into the RG final and beating Nadal. Both Fognini and Guadio nice players, but please TA.
We have to go by achievements.
Gaudio > Thiem
D
Deleted member 762343
Guest
The OP shows Thiem's run of SF, SF, F, F betterer than Djokerer at the same age. Its ridiculous to compare an entire career when Thiem is still at the start of his peak years. We can say Nole had some early SFs at RG, but the stats at RG for those are not all that impressive. Thiem also didn't just face Nadal he also faced Djokovic a lot on clay and at his best in 2016 while Thiem was not even in his prime.
Djokovic early clay masters:
2008 Rome - played no one really and still took 3 with Wawrinka in final
2009 he had two finals with Nadal and of course Madrid SF
2011 Djoko did well, but not exactly dominate except the two wins with Nadal and it was impressive with Madrid and Rome back to back. Thiem gave Nadal good final in 2017 Madrid and beat him in Rome, but we know what happened in SF.
Here is early prime Thiem vs peak Nadal year:
21/2017 SF FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-3 6-4 6-0 1.25 - 4.00
19/2017 QF Rome Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-3 5.50 - 1.14
18/2017 F Madrid Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-6(8) 6-4 1.14 - 5.00
17/2017 F Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-1 1.25 - 4.00
We can say Thiem is not great at Masters on clay if we wish, but he's got two finals in Madrid and he's beaten Nadal at Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome in his career and these were all prime versions of Nadal. The Rome 2017 beating of Nadal and the Madrid final were impressive for Thiem given he played the same event schedule with Nadal and met him in the finals of all those events save Rome where he won the QF and then had excuse of being a bit tired after all.
LET'S NOT FORGET THIEM HAS NOT HAD THE BENEFIT OF GOOD SEEDING OFTEN AT THE MAJOR CLAY EVENTS. He had it at 2019 RG, but still the roughest SF and Final combo a player has probably ever seen at RG. If Thiem can keep top 4 seed at Masters events he'll win more.
I think you totally missed my point.
And how was Nadal in his prime in 2017 ? His prime ended in 2013 (or 2014, that's debatable).
Moose Malloy
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic made the semis of RG at 20 and 21, while Thiem lost in the 2nd round at those ages. I guess it's more impressive to make your first semi at 23 than 21.
Meles
Bionic Poster
The one they did last year for the tournament. You weren't aware it was a new surface?
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
I was aware it was insanely slow. So it is till slow this year?The one they did last year for the tournament. You weren't aware it was a new surface?
abmk
Bionic Poster
If we go to games won percentage for Federer we have:
2005 60.5%, 2006 60.3%, 2007 58.3%, (2008 57.4%, 2009 57.9%)
Djoko:
2011 60.9%, 2012 59.5%, 2013 58.0%, (2014 60.8%, 2015 60.9%, 2016 64.9%)
Thiem:
2017 63.2%, 2018 60.1%, and 2019 unknown since Ultimate Tennis does not have RG stats up
wrong.
Thiem is at 58.5% in 2017, 56.9% in 2018 and 55.6% in 2019 as per UTS on clay
abmk
Bionic Poster
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
You bother with stats breakdowns. You insist that this is important.If we confine ourselves to RG stats which this thread does until you posted non-slam stats
I have always disagreed with the way you do things because you look at individual stats and say that one is more important than another. I say that serve and return has to balance so that they add up, and that breakdown stats for 1st and 2nd on serve and return also have to be balanced. It's no good if a player leads on 1st or 2nd stats. They have to add up, and when you look at leaders, they always compliment each other.
So I start with big picture and then work from big to small.
Stats for games tend to be higher in slams than in smaller events. This can go haywire in only one slam, but for a career top players actually win more games in slams than in M1000s. The reason is obvious. Less rounds, so in smaller events players are more likely to get challenged early. Slams get hardest in final rounds for equally obvious reasons.
If you look first at games, you're usually going to be pretty close on points, so 53.5% of points is going to get you around 57% of games. Actually a bit higher on clay for clay specialists, since the ratio is more like 2.25. So I look at Thiem, see 57% of games this year at RG and know that his points are probably a bit lower than 53.5%.
That's probably not good enough to win RG except in a weak year, where Nadal is gone and no one else is dominating.
I have not bothered yet to plot career records in games for top players only at RG, but I can because I have the data. I can tell you without looking that for the best it's going to range around 60% of games or higher because RG winners usually win more games than their average for the clay season.
I can give you a few figures of top clay ATGs.
Borg, around 65% of games at RG, career. You might think his figures are inflated because he went out at the top, but he also has weaker younger years averaged in there, which does not help.
Nadal, 66.07% before this year, so it may actually be a bit higher.
These are ridiculous figures.
Lendl, in contrast, was at around 59% for his career at RG.
So we can't say that someone can't win RG multiple times with at least 60% of games, but you want to see something as close as possible, and you want to see something similar for career, all events. A player can be weak at other events and high in a major, but it's not common and so much less predictable.
There really aren't that many players who have won RG multiple times, and of course Thiem has been incredibly unlucky to be playing in the same era as Nadal. But he's at least lucky that he was not born in the same year or close to it.
Nadal can't continue winning RG forever, and when his body finally gives out it may be sudden and final. So Thiem still has a window.
Finally, here's how you could also look at it:
Djokovic career on clay, 59.07% How will RG compare? I'm about to find out:
Answer, which I did not know until this moment:
59.86%, although I may not have this year averaged in yet, but it won't change much. So there you see that he has a higher game%, even only winning once, than on all clay. That's the way majors work because of the easy early rounds.
Peak years for top clay players are usually over 60% of games, and sometimes wildly so. These peak years do not always coincide with RG wins (think of Coria, and there are others), but it's the norm.
This is why I am not sure Thiem will ever win RG. With his stats, even at RG, he's running out of time. I'm saying maybe a 50/50 chance he will win it in the next couple years or so, but I still don't think he can repeat without some upgrades to his game. He needs better spots on his serve, less DFs, and he has to start winning more return games.
I've been doing this years and it does work rather well as evidenced by Thiem's continued success. You can't call me wrong when Thiem keeps coming up with the goods at RG year after year. I also rated Tsitsipas rather highly for clay this year and he delivered big time from Estoril onwards. (One can argue, but for a heroic Wawrinka effort Tsits would have made RG SF and Tsits had the worst draw of all time at RG which had to demoralize a touch.)
TTW idiots rail on about younger players not getting slam results, but Tsits had Wawrinka, Federer, Nadal, Thiem or Djoko path to the title. That is a ridiculous draw given that Wawrinka and Federer found form once again at RG.[/QUOTE]
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
Thiem's hands are huge
junior74
Bionic Poster
True Fanerer
G.O.A.T.
Thiem is a fine tennis player.
He slays giants for Team Fed.
Thank you Thiem.
He slays giants for Team Fed.
Thank you Thiem.
Meles
Bionic Poster
LOL. Nadal 2nd serve won like 75% of 2nd serve points at RG that year. 2017 was a peak year. Nadal is still in his prime and perhaps returning to it on grass.
Meles
Bionic Poster
2016 was preprime Thiem, but as to Murray:
17/2017 SF Barcelona Clay Dominic Thiem Andy Murray 6-2 3-6 6-4 2.00 - 1.80
13/2015 QF Miami Masters Hard Andy Murray Dominic Thiem 3-6 6-4 6-1 1.08 - 12.00
7/2014 R16 Rotterdam Hard Andy Murray Dominic Thiem 6-4 3-6 6-3 1.08 - 9.50
Plenty of evidence above of what a 2016 encounter might of entailed though I think Nole still beats Thiem in 2016 it just would have been a real match in normal conditions.
Dear lord we might say Nadal was prime in 2005, but nowhere near peak. The stats alone for 2017-2019 vs 2005-2007 tell the story. 56% points won in the earlier period is reputable. Near 60% in the latter period is devastating.
Let's be clear that Federe had easier draws than Thiem as #1 seed. Thiem has been hitting the big boys often in QFs, not just finals.
Again on Masters 1000 one can point at Thiem's draws and other circumstances. As a clay courter, Thiem's win at 2019 IW shows his merit. 2019 RG was the strongest clay field of all time and Thiem despite horrid weather conditions causing him to play 4 days in a row, put up a respectable final.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Foolish TA. Guadio a paltry 8 titles in his career to Thiem's 13 and just entering his peak. Vacuum era confirmed.
Meles
Bionic Poster
It was ever so slightly slower unlike the fraudulent changes at the Auz Open where the courts were made massively fasterer. Yes this is a "permanent" change. The question is the entire US Open Series this year.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Just pulling RG stats from Ultimate Tennis and they show 63.2% points won for Thiem with 63.2% games won. How are you filtering on Ultimate?
Meles
Bionic Poster
Djoko 63.2% games won in 2019 at RG with the loss. 2011 60.9%.peak djoko.
Meles
Bionic Poster
abmk
Bionic Poster
Djoko 63.2% games won in 2019 at RG with the loss. 2011 60.9%.
I was talking about clay for those those years.
oh you are an utter and complete failure at how to use statistics.
taking a very limited sample (1 tournament each) and waving it around as some sort of evidence with no context is Statistics 101 Fail.
Meles
Bionic Poster
The tournament.
abmk
Bionic Poster
Yes,5-7 matches at one tournament (in this case RG) is a pretty limited sample. And you are using it without context.
Hence you fail at Statistics 101.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
No. I think you have forgotten how to read English, and I thought you knew me better, so let me be briefer and blunt:LOL. You're saying Thiem will never win RG now?
1. It doesn't matter why Thiem has failed to win RG so far. On the basis of his play it is highly likely that he would have won at least once already in an era without Nadal. Nadal has made every other player over most of the past 15 years or so look weak at RG. That's not Thiem's fault anymore than it is the fault of guys like Fed and Djokovic.
Do you disagree with this?
2. Based on the fact that Thiem will be 26 next year I'm not convinced he has a lot of time left. The clock is ticking. You may be convinced that future ATGs will all continue to win majors well into their 30s, but I'm more cautious. I say consistantly that we need more time. The prime time for majors used to be around age 24-25. It may have moved up to 27-28. But so many people winning majors in their 30s may be an anomaly.
Do you disagree with this? Don't we need more time to see if the current ballooning of over 30 slam wins is a permanent thing OR something that is an exception? If not, why?
3. There are holes in Thiem's game that he needs to plug. One is a lack of variety on serve, because he has more power than Fed but doesn't have a really good slice so players pick his serve a lot, knowing where he is going to place it. That's one hole. Another is something that drives down his return stats. Top clay players get to numbers like 85/35, meaning that in a good year they hold serve at or close to 85% of the time, and they win well over 30% of games. This is simple addition. You want the front-runner to be as close as possible to 60% of games going into RG.
Do you disagree?
4. The profile I want to see for Thiem is like 2017 or higher. In 2017 he had the right numbers. Serve was nearly 84, a bit under. Return was 33. 58.54% of games total. Ratio of games to points was 2.21, which is fine.
Do you disagree?
5. If Thiem gets back to his 2017 numbers or goes higher, then I'd vote for 1-2 RGs, minimum. That would put him in a place like Courier, Bruguera and Kuerten were.
Do you disagree?
For me it is about cold hard data. This has nothing to do with who I like or who I root for. Before Rome this year I thought Rafa's chance of another RG was low, based on previous years. After Rome I thought he was a favorite. By the end of RG this year I thought he was a lock and said so publicly. This is a matter of record. There are very few times I see a clear front runner. At Wimbledon this year I don't have a clue who will win. Wimbledon seeding tends to be successful, so common sense is going to get us to about the same place. Look at level on HC this year for an idea of level, but look carefully at past years on grass. Djokovic this year is an unknown because his level has been all over the place. Nadal is unpredictable on grass and we all know he is weakest when the grass is still green. Fed is old. Any of the Big Three could take it again, but I would only say that this year an upset may be more likely.
Do you disagree?
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
Until he wins the french open, this means nothing! He’s behind Federer and Djokovic
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
LOL. You're saying Thiem will never win RG now?[/QUOTE]
2017 was his best year. It is likely Thiem should not have faced Nadal that year if RG has a sane seeding system. Thiem was seeded #6, obviously stupid since he was in finals at Barcy and Madrid. No way he was the #6 clay player in the world. But they had Nadal at #4. This kind of nonsense is why RG is the King of Getting It Wrong on Clay.
Thiem was the second best player on clay in 2017. Without Nadal he had the right profile to win RG, so in that year he fit the mold for past RG winners. What I believe you are missing is that we have zero evidence that returning continues to go up in the late 20s and later. Aging players in general take up the slack by winning more service games, and that's pretty much a fact. I believe it is likely that Thiem's return game has already peaked, or at the most he has very little time left to equal returning or better what he did in 2017. That means he has to get tactically stronger, more aggressive, and learn how to shorten points.
[/QUOTE]Thiem: 58.7% this year before Nadal, 55.47% after Nadal. 60.5% before playing Djokovic.If we go to games won percentage for Federer we have:
2005 60.5%, 2006 60.3%, 2007 58.3%, (2008 57.4%, 2009 57.9%)
Djoko:
2011 60.9%, 2012 59.5%, 2013 58.0%, (2014 60.8%, 2015 60.9%, 2016 64.9%
Thiem:
2017 63.2%, 2018 60.1%, and 2019 unknown since Ultimate Tennis does not have RG stats up
2017 was his best year. It is likely Thiem should not have faced Nadal that year if RG has a sane seeding system. Thiem was seeded #6, obviously stupid since he was in finals at Barcy and Madrid. No way he was the #6 clay player in the world. But they had Nadal at #4. This kind of nonsense is why RG is the King of Getting It Wrong on Clay.
Thiem was the second best player on clay in 2017. Without Nadal he had the right profile to win RG, so in that year he fit the mold for past RG winners. What I believe you are missing is that we have zero evidence that returning continues to go up in the late 20s and later. Aging players in general take up the slack by winning more service games, and that's pretty much a fact. I believe it is likely that Thiem's return game has already peaked, or at the most he has very little time left to equal returning or better what he did in 2017. That means he has to get tactically stronger, more aggressive, and learn how to shorten points.
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