Let's talk about Rafa becoming YE#1

Will Rafa end 2017 as #1?


  • Total voters
    51

Rafa the King

Hall of Fame
Something I never thought was possible and still is unlikely, but it is possible this year. Obviously most of all, 2017 should be the year of La Decima at RG, but after another Decima in Barca, Rafa is on 3735 points, I think about 10K points would do it this year.
This would be a projected run to YE#1, obviously I'm considering Rafa to remain healthy and at his best for the clay season

Madrid: SF 4095 points
Rome: W 5095
RG: W 7095
Queens: QF 7185
WIM: R4 7365
CAN: SF 7725
CIN: QF 7905
USO: SF 8625
BEI: SF 8805
SHA: QF 8985
BAS: SF 9165
PAR: QF 9345
WTF: SF (2 wins) 9745

Although extremely consistent, this run isn't impossible, this is me considering he won't make a single final post RG. So what do you think
 
6

6-3 6-0

Guest
If he wins RG even without winning Madrid or Rome, he'll have a massive lead over #2 (Fed). At that point he's my favourite to finish YE#1.
 

TheMaestro1990

Hall of Fame
It's time to talk about it. But nothing more than just talk. 70 % of the season still remains. He's in a good position. I think it will be either Nadal or Federer, unless Djokovic gets back to 2015 shape very, very soon.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal is the favorite to end the Year End #1. Unfortunately for Federer, there's no MS on grass so there's nothing he can do, but there are 3 MS on clay in which Nadal can accumulate 3,000 points max.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Nadal is the favorite to end the Year End #1. Unfortunately for Federer, there's no MS on grass so there's nothing he can do, but there are 3 MS on clay in which Nadal can accumulate 3,000 points max.
I seem to remember Federer being the HC GOAT...
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
When we break it down like that, it certainly looks realistic as long as nothing changes in the tennis landscape. Wins at Rome and RG would put him well clear at the top of the Race, and he could use that buffer to his advantage for the rest of the season. So again, working on the assumption that the NextGen stay as they are and Djokovic/Murray have a down year, the other contender is, of course, Federer - and he's still a bit of an unknown as we don't know exactly which events he'll play.
I'll try and break down what I think a realistic set of results could be for him and then cross-compare:

Currently on 4,045 points.
RG - QF - 4,405
Halle - W - 4,905
Wimbledon - W - 6,905
Cincinnati - W - 7,905
US Open - SF - 8,625
Shanghai - QF - 8,985
Basel - W - 9,485
Paris - R3 - 9,575

This is a mixture of optimistic and pessimistic results based on whatever I've seen from him in the first 3-4 months of the year and also assumes that he skips Montreal and Stuttgart. If he meets his goals for the year, it would be pretty much neck-and-neck between these two heading into the WTF (at which point whoever performs better in London takes it). A lot is going to depend on how important the No. 1 is for both Nadal and Federer as a goal for the year - is it worth playing a normal schedule to get the points? I think Federer skipping almost the whole clay season is actually a big factor in this (if he had played MC, Madrid and Rome and reached maybe 2 QFs and 1 SF, he'd have an extra 720 points which probably tips in his favour).

Next step: a key assumption I made in the quick projection above is that the two pretty much avoid meeting each other for the rest of the year, which probably won't happen. They may be drawn to meet in a couple of QFs in the next 2 months, but after that their entry rankings should be high enough to make sure they don't meet till the Semis/Finals. We would need to see how big a role this plays in the allocation of points across the big tournaments

Finally, lets deal with external factors:

- what happens if Djokovic gets back into form?
- what happens if Murray gets back to his best?
- what happens if they both get back into form?
- what if the Young Guns step up?

All sorts of things could happen here, but if either one of Djokovic or Murray hits a purple patch, they could potentially regain all this lost ground and still end as Number 1 with a surge of consecutive tournament wins (more likely with Djokovic tbh). I would assume that Djokovic getting back into form might impact Nadal a little more, but again this would all depend on how the tournament draws pan out.

So I think the bottom line is this AT THE MOMENT: if Federer bags another Slam, I would back him to finish No. 1 as he should be able to pad his total points tally with respectable appearances at other tournaments. Otherwise, I would favour Rafa with the caveat that no-one else spoils the party.
 
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merwy

G.O.A.T.
Honestly how lucky has Nadal been that Murray, Wawrinka and Djokovic were sucking so badly during the clay season, enabling him to rack up points like crazy?

I know that Fed was also lucky for the same reason but he still had to face Nadal and on hard court there are other players who can at least challenge him (Nishikori, Wawrinka, Kyrgios, Berdych). On clay, Nadal just has to show up and you know he's going to beat anyone who's name is not Djokovic or Murray (or Stan in some rare occasions). Fed might've been tricky for him too this season but I guess we'll never know.

It feels to me like Nadal is going to win every match this clay season without even being challenged by anyone.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
I agree that Grass deserves 1 or 2 Masters but it isn't unfair that clay has 3, HCs just have too many
But it's not like all hardcourts are fast and low bounce, which of course, the conditions favors Federer. Most of the court today are slow and high bounce which suits better for a Nadal(and Nole)playing style.
 

tennisenthusiast

Hall of Fame
spains-carlos-moya-l-and-rafael-nadal-attends-the-opening-ceremony-gxhf5j.jpg
 

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
Nadal is the favorite to end the Year End #1. Unfortunately for Federer, there's no MS on grass so there's nothing he can do, but there are 3 MS on clay in which Nadal can accumulate 3,000 points max.

One of the reasons i absolutely hate the clay season. We need to lose a clay masters or a hard court masters and promote Queens to a masters and space Queens and Halle out so that players can play both events in the lead up to Wimbledon.

On topic: I think the race to #1 this year is wide open. Huge question mark over Djokovic/Murray, Federer only playing half the season and Nadal possibly only being dominant on clay. I don't think we can rule any of them out yet.
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
Honestly how lucky has Nadal been that Murray, Wawrinka and Djokovic were sucking so badly during the clay season, enabling him to rack up points like crazy?

I know that Fed was also lucky for the same reason but he still had to face Nadal and on hard court there are other players who can at least challenge him (Nishikori, Wawrinka, Kyrgios, Berdych). On clay, Nadal just has to show up and you know he's going to beat anyone who's name is not Djokovic or Murray (or Stan in some rare occasions). Fed might've been tricky for him too this season but I guess we'll never know.

It feels to me like Nadal is going to win every match this clay season without even being challenged by anyone.

Fed such a coward not playing Rafa on clay :D
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
My own ranking of No. 1 contenders and their chances at the Year End No. 1 - based on what I've seen in the first 4 months of 2017:

Federer & Nadal - 30% each
Djokovic - 25%
Murray - 15%

I will revise these after Wimbledon.

Might be harsh, but anyone outside these 4 currently has, IMO, close to 0% chance as they have not displayed consistency in results.
I still believe in Novak and Andy, though I cannot by any means predict their results easily as I don't know when they will fully recover and time their returns to form.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
I think Federer will out perform Nadal after the FO. So this depends on what sort if margin Nadal can build in the. Extra 2 months. Still think Murray and Djokovic will have something to say about this - even if they're just handing out key defeats.

problem is, the way things are shaping up right now it looks like they're most likely to be back in decent form right in what would be Fed's part of the season. Still, not too late to hope that one or both can hinder Rafa's evil plans in some of the remaining clay events:confused:
yeah, let's talk about the topspin plague... that's all we need to cheer up :rolleyes:
Amen
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
One of the reasons i absolutely hate the clay season. We need to lose a clay masters or a hard court masters and promote Queens to a masters and space Queens and Halle out so that players can play both events in the lead up to Wimbledon.
I enjoy the clay season, but the lack of important tourneys on grass is absurd.
 

NBP

Hall of Fame
OK, if I were to roughly predict both Rafa and Fed's rest of the year, it would go something like...

Nadal
Madrid: SF
Rome: F
RG: W
Queen's: 2R
Wimbledon: 4R
Montreal: W
Cincinnati: 3R
USO: QF
Beijing: F
Shanghai: SF
Basel: QF
Paris: 3R
ATP Finals: RR

I don't think Nadal will win Madrid or Rome, but will win the French. No way does he go 5/5, he didn't even in his prime. On grass, he isn't doing anything. Not only will he be burned from the first half of 2017, but just isn't good on it anymore. I have a feeling he'd bounce back with a title in Montreal or Cincy (more Montreal, I think Nick gets Cincy), and gets bumped by a big hitter at the US. He's been good in Beijing, put him down for a final. But he'll have a poor end of year. These results would add up to 9,410.

Federer
RG: 4R
Stuttgart: SF
Halle: W
Wimbledon: SF
Montreal: F
Cincinnati: 3R
USO: W
Shanghai: QF
Basel: F
Paris: 3R
ATP Finals: W

I just have the feeling Fed won't win Stuttgart. Also he won't win Wimbledon. I just have a huge feeling he will win the US and not Wimby. Also, Ljubicic has said he'll play a full hard schedule after the grass, so I really expect him to play Montreal. He can't just walk into Cincinnati and think he'll win it or go deep. I think his run there also ends, but that gives him enough time to recover and win the US. He's actually susceptible to an early loss in Shanghai if he plays at all, and I put a Basel Final to be conservative. I do think he can win London, especially as the courts are now super fast. All that comes to 10,295.

So it'll probably come down to London, but for sure Fed has to be favoured to perform better in the second half of the year.
 

Newcomer

Hall of Fame
No need to overreact. He won the same 2 titles last year, but we know how it ended. Hopefully he will not have injuries this year.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
OK, if I were to roughly predict both Rafa and Fed's rest of the year, it would go something like...

Nadal
Madrid: SF
Rome: F
RG: W
Queen's: 2R
Wimbledon: 4R
Montreal: W
Cincinnati: 3R
USO: QF
Beijing: F
Shanghai: SF
Basel: QF
Paris: 3R
ATP Finals: RR

I don't think Nadal will win Madrid or Rome, but will win the French. No way does he go 5/5, he didn't even in his prime. On grass, he isn't doing anything. Not only will he be burned from the first half of 2017, but just isn't good on it anymore. I have a feeling he'd bounce back with a title in Montreal or Cincy (more Montreal, I think Nick gets Cincy), and gets bumped by a big hitter at the US. He's been good in Beijing, put him down for a final. But he'll have a poor end of year. These results would add up to 9,410.

Federer
RG: 4R
Stuttgart: SF
Halle: W
Wimbledon: SF
Montreal: F
Cincinnati: 3R
USO: W
Shanghai: QF
Basel: F
Paris: 3R
ATP Finals: W

I just have the feeling Fed won't win Stuttgart. Also he won't win Wimbledon. I just have a huge feeling he will win the US and not Wimby. Also, Ljubicic has said he'll play a full hard schedule after the grass, so I really expect him to play Montreal. He can't just walk into Cincinnati and think he'll win it or go deep. I think his run there also ends, but that gives him enough time to recover and win the US. He's actually susceptible to an early loss in Shanghai if he plays at all, and I put a Basel Final to be conservative. I do think he can win London, especially as the courts are now super fast. All that comes to 10,295.

So it'll probably come down to London, but for sure Fed has to be favoured to perform better in the second half of the year.

I was following you through until the point where you said the WTF courts are "super fast" - that doesn't seem to have been the case in the last 8 years or so, did the ATP say that they are speeding them up?
 

NBP

Hall of Fame
I was following you through until the point where you said the WTF courts are "super fast" - that doesn't seem to have been the case in the last 8 years or so, did the ATP say that they are speeding them up?
Last year Bercy and London were sped up considerably. Not only in the charts but you could visibly see it. Fastest since 2010.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
It's certainly possible now, and at this points it's becoming more and more of a 2 horse race between Fedal. Who knows, it might turn out that Fed's 3 wins over Rafa this year will be the deciding factor.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
problem is, the way things are shaping up right now it looks like they're most likely to be back in decent form right in what would be Fed's part of the season. Still, not too late to hope that one or both can hinder Rafa's evil plans in some of the remaining clay events:confused:

This is true, doesn't look like either will be in top form before the FO at the earliest.

Nadal is playing a lot of tennis though, I think he could slow down after the clay - especially if he goes deep in every event.

I would love to see Federer ar #1 again but to do that he'll probably need another major anyway. So for now I'm just daring to dream about Wimbledon. I expect Federer will do well on the grass - based on current form the USO might be his best chance though.

Year is still young. I don't expect anyone to go on a tear like Murray did at the end of last year but safe to say who's leading after the clay season isn't necessarily the guy who will be #1 at the end of the year. Nadal has looked good on the clay but he's not had the toughest draws. This was still only a 500 series win afterall.
 

TheAssassin

G.O.A.T.
If Nadal can go deep in several hard court tournaments again like he did earlier this year, he will a clear favorite. He needs to make sure that he doesn't let many matches last long, the guy isn't a monster that can't get tired anymore.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
I am ok if Rafa gets the 10th FO and becomes No 1. Kind of a huge farewell year from him when he was pretty much written off end of last year.

If not Fed.

Anything other than Djokorray and the huge list of mugs including Raonic, Cilic, Nishikori, Thiem , Dmitrov ...................
 

Roddick85

Hall of Fame
Rafa certainly has his chances, if he can continue sweeping the rest of the clay swing, including the FO. However, one must not forget that he will probably go MIA during the grass season, so don't expect much there. Grass is where Federer should collect a lot of points and maybe #19. North American hard court swing tends to favor Federer, especially in Cincinnati. Now I wouldn't write Rafa off during that period because I believe he can still win hard court events, but the competition is stronger on that surface. He will also be more tired, so I wouldn't put a lot of money on him collecting big titles during that time. I hope I'm wrong because I would love to finally have a Fedal USO final which we never got thanks to Djokovic lol, but I remains skeptical. As I mentionned in a previous discussion, post USO is where things get interesting. If history thought us anything, it's that Federer usually does very well during the indoor swing and that Nadal despises that time of the year and rarely does well. If the race is tight after the USO, which I expect it to be, YE #1 will be decided during the indoor swing, possibly at the WTF, and for that reason, I have to favor RF. Now a lot could happen in the next 6 months, but if things stay the way they are today, Fedal are the 2 most likely candidates for YE #1 and the indoor swing is where this will be decided.

OK, if I were to roughly predict both Rafa and Fed's rest of the year, it would go something like...
Also, Ljubicic has said he'll play a full hard schedule after the grass, so I really expect him to play Montreal. He can't just walk into Cincinnati and think he'll win it or go deep. I think his run there also ends, but that gives him enough time to recover and win the US. He's actually susceptible to an early loss in Shanghai if he plays at all, and I put a Basel Final to be conservative. I do think he can win London, especially as the courts are now super fast. All that comes to 10,295.

So it'll probably come down to London, but for sure Fed has to be favoured to perform better in the second half of the year.

I don't believe Federer will play Montreal, I believe he's not a fan of our city! LOL... The last time he came here was 2011 and he lost rather early to Tsonga. Even in the years that followed, he played Toronto once in 2014 and that's it. If there's 1 MS-1000 that he's made a habit of skipping it's the Canadian Open. He went straight to Cincinnati in 2012, 2015 and won the title, without any preparation, so it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to do this again. Wimbledon starts later this year, finishing on the 16th of July, which gives him about 3 weeks before the Rogers Cup, should he make the final at SW 19. If he faces an early exit at SW19 (which is unlikely, but still possible), I could see him playing Montreal to get more points, but if he does well, I think he will skip it as usual. He'll play Cincinnati where he usually does well to prepare for the USO and not burn himself out.
 

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
If everything remains exactly the same as it's been to this point all year? No, he'll probably be 2. This is his most comfortable period of the year, and the guy who has beaten him three times out of three is currently taking a break. Let's not get carried away. Federer is going into his favourite time of the year once Roland Garros is over. 2014, 2015, and what he played of it in 2016 he's looked absolutely glorious during that period, and in none of those years did he look as good as he did in the opening stretch of this year, and in those years he had one guy he struggled to contend with who doesn't seem to be contending this year, so... People do have short, short memories if after Monte Carlo and Barce-freaking-Lona they're going to try and write 2017 as the year of Rafa. Do we not remember Australia, Indian Wells and Miami? It was reminiscent of 2011.
 
Oh dear.

The op is the only one to vote yes. :oops:

If everything remains exactly the same as it's been to this point all year? No, he'll probably be 2. This is his most comfortable period of the year, and the guy who has beaten him three times out of three is currently taking a break. Let's not get carried away. Federer is going into his favourite time of the year once Roland Garros is over. 2014, 2015, and what he played of it in 2016 he's looked absolutely glorious during that period, and in none of those years did he look as good as he did in the opening stretch of this year, and in those years he had one guy he struggled to contend with who doesn't seem to be contending this year, so... People do have short, short memories if after Monte Carlo and Barce-freaking-Lona they're going to try and write 2017 as the year of Rafa. Do we not remember Australia, Indian Wells and Miami? It was reminiscent of 2011.

We've still to see Rafa play anyone ranked above him on clay so far this year.

Federer is far and away in the box seat.

Let's not forget Nadal's recent grass and fast court pedigree being utterly non-existent.
 
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TimHenmanATG

Hall of Fame
Rafa's got a great opportunity.

He can easily hoover up a huge amount of points at Madrid, Rome and the French Open.

Who's going to challenge him? Only Federer, whose schedule is tailored to create major title opportunities, not ranking points.

Djokovic and Murray are already 2500-3000 points behind the Big 2, and there is no sign that they are capable of bridging that gap in 2017.
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Nadal is the favorite to end the Year End #1. Unfortunately for Federer, there's no MS on grass so there's nothing he can do, but there are 3 MS on clay in which Nadal can accumulate 3,000 points max.


Lol, preemptively sneak-dissing Nadal's hypothetical YE #1. Not a surprise given the source.

I think Federer finishes #1 anyway.
 

ForumMember

Hall of Fame
Nadal is the favorite to end the Year End #1. Unfortunately for Federer, there's no MS on grass so there's nothing he can do, but there are 3 MS on clay in which Nadal can accumulate 3,000 points max.
With the amount of Tennis ppl worldwide on Grass even one GS is difficult to justify.
 
I think whoever is giving Rafa a big YE #1 chance is missing the most important question: whether Nadal is healthy. Sure it's easy to just assume it away, but it's literally been one of his greatest weaknesses in the last five years. Not to mention Rafa has played a LOT of matches so far, 34 if I counted correctly. This means if people say that Rafa wins FO and either sweeps or goes deep in the other two Masters that would mean, tentatively:

34 matches at the moment
+ 5 matches from Madrid (F)
+ 5 matches from Rome (W)
+ 7 matches from FO (W)

= 51 matches even before we've even arrived to the grass season.

For reference, Rafa played 53 matches in 2016 total, 81 in 2015, 59 in 2014 and 82 in 2013. And in all three years Rafa made the final, he has played at least 80 matches! Meaning Rafa will have quite a lot of mileage before we even get to the summer hard court season, and will also need to put in a lot of work to stay healthly.

It's not impossible, but it's a huge question mark especially because Rafa's no spring chicken anymore.
 

Hitman's Gurl

Professional
Rafa has played A LOT of tennis so far, finals everywhere. When he enters the season post RG we will see where he really stands. If he gets number one I am happy for him. He would have earned it. Something tells me Novak will wake up soon. :oops:
 

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
OK, if I were to roughly predict both Rafa and Fed's rest of the year, it would go something like...

Nadal
Madrid: SF
Rome: F
RG: W
Queen's: 2R
Wimbledon: 4R
Montreal: W
Cincinnati: 3R
USO: QF
Beijing: F
Shanghai: SF
Basel: QF
Paris: 3R
ATP Finals: RR

I don't think Nadal will win Madrid or Rome, but will win the French. No way does he go 5/5, he didn't even in his prime. On grass, he isn't doing anything. Not only will he be burned from the first half of 2017, but just isn't good on it anymore. I have a feeling he'd bounce back with a title in Montreal or Cincy (more Montreal, I think Nick gets Cincy), and gets bumped by a big hitter at the US. He's been good in Beijing, put him down for a final. But he'll have a poor end of year. These results would add up to 9,410.

Federer
RG: 4R
Stuttgart: SF
Halle: W
Wimbledon: SF
Montreal: F
Cincinnati: 3R
USO: W
Shanghai: QF
Basel: F
Paris: 3R
ATP Finals: W

I just have the feeling Fed won't win Stuttgart. Also he won't win Wimbledon. I just have a huge feeling he will win the US and not Wimby. Also, Ljubicic has said he'll play a full hard schedule after the grass, so I really expect him to play Montreal. He can't just walk into Cincinnati and think he'll win it or go deep. I think his run there also ends, but that gives him enough time to recover and win the US. He's actually susceptible to an early loss in Shanghai if he plays at all, and I put a Basel Final to be conservative. I do think he can win London, especially as the courts are now super fast. All that comes to 10,295.

So it'll probably come down to London, but for sure Fed has to be favoured to perform better in the second half of the year.
Where can I sign for this scenario? :)
 

spirit95

Professional
Rafa often lead the race directly after the clay swing but how many times did he translate that to ye#1? Twice only

Meanwhile Roger is resting and training and waiting and will have been doing so for 2 solid months before RG. Last time he took a long break he came back and won a slam. What's gonna happen after this one

If Rafa wants even a small chance at stealing ye#1 he has to not lose on clay this year. One tough draw in Rome or bad day at RG and it's game over
 

TheMusicLover

G.O.A.T.
OP, didn't you already start/posted on an earlier thread discussing this possiblility?
I fully acknowledge that it is indeed most possible, but like I already replied earlier... DO. NOT. GET. AHEAD. OF. WHATEVER. MAY. HAPPEN.

Things in tennis may well change very, VERY quickly indeed.
I hoped the mid-tail end of 2016 would have tought a good lesson to many for this matter, but again, alas...


People are getting way ahead of themselves. Remember 2014 or 2016? Rafa could get injured tomorrow and miss a couple of months of tennis. It's silly to talk about the prospect of him ending #1
This.
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
I don't think it is a likely outcome, but it can happen. So far in 2017, he's played 7 tournaments and reached finals most of the time. He lost at QF to Raonic in Brisbane and then to Federer in IW, but other than that, he's reached finals and won 2 of them. Everyone knows Nadal will collect massive sum during clay season, and it all depends on his form on other surfaces, but so far, he has played well on HC. So, I think it is possible for Nadal to do well on grass and HC and become YE#1.

However, he is prone to injuries, whether small or big, after the clay season, probably because he puts so much into clay season and gets drained afterwards. I can see the same scenario repeating in 2017, especially thinking about the fact that he is turning 31. It would be extremely impressive if he maintains the current intensity and does well after the clay season, but my guess is his performance after RG will drop quite dramatically and he won't have such big lead by the US HC season, if he is still there. However, Murray and Djokovic haven't been as scary as I thought they would be, so you never know. Maybe it will be between Federer and Nadal, or maybe Djokovic and Murray will suddenly wake up soon and make it a 4-horse race. We'll see.
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Rafa is doing what he needs to do (sweep clay) and so far the competition has been non existent.

I had Federer as favourite based on Nadal, Murray, Djokovic and Wawrinka all showing up for clay and therefore splitting the points.

Assuming Rafa wins RG (big if still) and goes deep in the remaining masters he should have a healthy 2000 point lead on Federer which might be enough.

If Fed wins Wimbledon then it's game over because assuming he stays healthy he won accumulate a lot of points between USO season and WTF.
 
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Backspin1183

Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, he is the HC goat but still, grass is his best surface and there's no MS 1000 for him gain. Clay is Nadal's best surface and luckily, he can enjoy gaining thousands of ATP points from 3 clay MS events..

Exactly. He is the greatest on hard court too but there are other players that are almost as good on cement. When it comes to grass, however, Roger is very much ahead of the pack.
 
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