Lost the First Set? Not to Worry, Say Sampras / Djokovic / Federer

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
... Who all apparently have the highest win % after losing the first set in a Best-Of-3 situation.


"Pete Sampras, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are the only three players that average winning more than 40 per cent of their matches after dropping the first set in a best-of-three-set match."

1. Pete Sampras = 41.33% (62/150)
2. Novak Djokovic = 41.30% (76/184)
3. Roger Federer = 40.17% (92/229)

Losing the first set gives you about a 20 per cent chance of victory. The best competitors in the game can double that ratio to around 40 per cent, but nobody has been able to push it up to a break-even record of 50 per cent. There is a lot to be said for a solid warm-up and being the first to break serve.
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Thanks for sharing! The fact that the dataset doesn't include matches prior to 1991 helps Pete's percentage a little. If you include his entire career, which began in 1988, he's 81/198 (40.9%) in best-of-3 matches in which he lost the first set.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Big 3's numbers if you exclude the first 3 years of their pro careers, as well.

Federer (2001-): 43.8% (84/192)
Djokovic (2007-): 43.4% (73/168)
Nadal (2005-) : 42.9% (76/177)

Sampras (1991-): 41.33% (62/150)

Source: Ultimate Tennis Statistics
 

1stVolley

Professional
Interesting statistic. Overall, I think it implies that the player in question didn't have his best tennis show up that day. However, the doubling into the 40% range is evidence that the strong belief in their tennis prowess is in evidence with the big 3.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Thanks for sharing! The fact that the dataset doesn't include matches prior to 1991 helps Pete's percentage a little. If you include his entire career, which began in 1988, he's 81/198 (40.9%) in best-of-3 matches in which he lost the first set.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Big 3's numbers if you exclude the first 3 years of their pro careers, as well.

Federer (2001-): 43.8% (84/192)
Djokovic (2007-): 43.4% (73/168)
Nadal (2005-) : 42.9% (76/177)

Sampras (1991-): 41.33% (62/150)

Source: Ultimate Tennis Statistics

True, Pete's stat slightly skewed - that is interesting, thanks!
Very strong figures as usual from the Big 3

Many ways to interpret this but perhaps it's got something to do with the way they are able to "problem-solve" their way through a match without playing their best tennis?
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
Nice stat but not that surprising that the best players are the best at losing the first set and still winning e.g. the Big 3 + Sampras.

Thanks for sharing! The fact that the dataset doesn't include matches prior to 1991 helps Pete's percentage a little. If you include his entire career, which began in 1988, he's 81/198 (40.9%) in best-of-3 matches in which he lost the first set.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Big 3's numbers if you exclude the first 3 years of their pro careers, as well.

Federer (2001-): 43.8% (84/192)
Djokovic (2007-): 43.4% (73/168)
Nadal (2005-) : 42.9% (76/177)

Sampras (1991-): 41.33% (62/150)

Source: Ultimate Tennis Statistics
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Many ways to interpret this but perhaps it's got something to do with the way they are able to "problem-solve" their way through a match without playing their best tennis?

Yeah, a high percentage definitely suggests strong on-court problem solving ability. It also illustrates, to some extent, that players who take the first set off the top guys often fail to sustain their level and taper off.

---------

Also, apropos of nothing, I couldn't help myself**:

Andy Murray: 38.7%
Boris Becker*: 36.4%

Stefan Edberg*: 33.3%

Guillermo Vilas*: 29.3%
Gustavo Kuerten: 29.2%
Mats Wilander*: 28.7%

Jim Courier*: 24.7%



*includes pre-1991 matches
**I'm just reporting statistics, not making any arguments
sources: Infosys and Ultimate Tennis Statistics
 

blablavla

G.O.A.T.
Thanks for sharing! The fact that the dataset doesn't include matches prior to 1991 helps Pete's percentage a little. If you include his entire career, which began in 1988, he's 81/198 (40.9%) in best-of-3 matches in which he lost the first set.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Big 3's numbers if you exclude the first 3 years of their pro careers, as well.

Federer (2001-): 43.8% (84/192)
Djokovic (2007-): 43.4% (73/168)
Nadal (2005-) : 42.9% (76/177)

Sampras (1991-): 41.33% (62/150)

Source: Ultimate Tennis Statistics

looks like @Lew II needs to improve his / her game.
competition never sleeps.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Nice stat but not that surprising that the best players are the best at losing the first set and still winning e.g. the Big 3 + Sampras.

Yep, not hugely surprising - would be interesting to get hold of the full data set actually
And also see what Big 3's look like if you exclude matches against each other - probably significantly higher against the field.
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
Thanks for sharing! The fact that the dataset doesn't include matches prior to 1991 helps Pete's percentage a little. If you include his entire career, which began in 1988, he's 81/198 (40.9%) in best-of-3 matches in which he lost the first set.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Big 3's numbers if you exclude the first 3 years of their pro careers, as well.

Federer (2001-): 43.8% (84/192)
Djokovic (2007-): 43.4% (73/168)
Nadal (2005-) : 42.9% (76/177)

Sampras (1991-): 41.33% (62/150)

Source: Ultimate Tennis Statistics

Why did you exclude their first 3 years of ATP career, which increased their percentages? Do you imply that that they were worse players in their first 3 years than afterwards?
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Why did you exclude their first 3 years of ATP career, which increased their percentages? Do you imply that that they were worse players in their first 3 years than afterwards?

I believe it was done to facilitate a direct comparison with Sampras. Otherwise it's not on a like-for-like basis, strictly speaking
The data published in the link I shared only includes ATP matches from 1991 (Sampras turned pro in 1988).
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Why did you exclude their first 3 years of ATP career, which increased their percentages? Do you imply that that they were worse players in their first 3 years than afterwards?

Only because the dataset used by the ATP article excludes Sampras' first 3 years. I wasn't trying to make any point in particular, though it's clearly the case that players tend to improve after their teens.
 

blablavla

G.O.A.T.
Why did you exclude their first 3 years of ATP career, which increased their percentages? Do you imply that that they were worse players in their first 3 years than afterwards?

why not?
it's quite common on this board to cherry pick, cut and re-arrange numbers to make a point.
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
Only because the dataset used by the ATP article excludes Sampras' first 3 years. I wasn't trying to make any point in particular, though it's clearly the case that players tend to improve after their teens.

I am glad that you have done it and provided more evidence in favor of your notion that "it's clearly the case that players tend to improve after their teens".
 

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
^ lmao even in this completely unrelated thread, the tennis evolution agenda continues strong.

Back to topic: Interesting stats, but as already mentioned it favors Sampras because it excludes his first few years before he hit his 20’s. I actually expected Nadal’s numbers to be higher since he had a really good set of first years on the tour, but it looks like he turned pro in 2001.
 
Lleyton Hewitt = 39.6%
Rafael Nadal = 39.1%
Andy Murray = 38.7%

rock-web.jpg
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
^ lmao even in this completely unrelated thread, the tennis evolution agenda continues strong.

Back to topic: Interesting stats, but as already mentioned it favors Sampras because it excludes his first few years before he hit his 20’s. I actually expected Nadal’s numbers to be higher since he had a really good set of first years on the tour, but it looks like he turned pro in 2001.

His debut was in 2002. At the age of 15 years and 330 days, he became the youngest player to win a match in an official ATP tournament with his first round victory over Paraguayan Ramón Delgado, 25 years old and 81st world player at the time, by 6-4 and 6-4. Rafael Nadal was ranked 762nd on the world ranking.
 
D

Deleted member 768841

Guest
This reminds me of the last tourney I played before lockdown. It was a round robin, first two opponents were tough, lost the first set. And then I won the second and won the tiebreak. Literally happened two matches in a row.
 
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