Match Analysis - Djokovic def. Alcaraz @ 2024 Olympics Final

Should I be doing more such Analytical work in the future?


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Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
This is for all tennis fans in general; and read this If you're happy or sad, in light mood or angry, enjoying the moment or are disappointed. I'm here to talk about Djokovic defeating Alcaraz in the 2024 Olympics tennis final 76 (3) 76 (2) to claim the Olympic Gold. Ladies and gentlemen, kindly read this and open your consciousness for my analysis.

First of all, huge congratulations to Djokovic, 37 and still strong as a rock, especially when it really matters. He deserved this Gold medal, the final thing that was eluding him. personally speaking, I am extremely happy for him, Serbian people and the nation of Serbia; you and your man totally deserved it. Congratulations once again. (Tagging the only Serb I know of on this forum so far, the 8yo kid @TripleATeam, now don't you dare eat too much chocolate or it'll rot your teeth xD)

Coming back to the result, I think it is somewhat of a learning experience for Alcaraz to be brought back to the ground after the channel slam; from his pre-final interview here, I felt that he was starting to sound arrogant for his usual down-to-earth demeanor, which was not a good sign. Now he'll learn, take his lessons, and be better prepared for the USO series coming up. I feel that he needs some tactical improvements.

Talking about the match, as I said before, Djokovic has a matchup advantage over Alcaraz on clay as long as he moves well. Alcaraz needs to stop trying to outhit Djokovic in heavy, but short landing & centre-ish shots, it just won't work on slow and/or high bouncing courts because Djokovic's lateral movement on the baseline, to & fro movement between net & baseline is still elite; plus his anticipatory skills & ability to block balls on the stretch with depth makes it difficult for Alcaraz to just pound away. Alcaraz needs to spread the court, push Djokovic behind the baseline with heavy & angular strokes (but not outright winner attempts) and expose his declined behind-the-baseline movement. If you saw the match, that much should be very clear to you.

On the other tactical front, I felt that he was letting Djokovic dictate way too much today, just like their previous FO 2023 SF, Cincy F etc. ,Carlos was relying way too much on outrageous gets/winner attempts to win the points. It is an absolute tactical suicide, if you allow Djokovic, an elite ballstriker, to take the initiative and make you run all over the entire area of the court, which would drain you eventually. The reason behind it is that Djokovic wouldn't go for an outright winner and rather be happy to keep you on the move, as he knows he'd win a vast majority of such points by his opponent throwing in an UFE or FE; and even if the opponent does win a few points by sensational retrievals or winners, the percentages are still with the Serbian Veteran. Today, Djokovic was the one in charge of the points more often than not, especially when it really mattered (don't be fooled by the number of Winners), and some of Alcaraz's winners were outrageous shots that he stole, not 'safe' or 'regular' winners. Unlike his matches with Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 & 2024, Alcaraz surrendered way too much court space & initiative to Nole despite having an upper hand in terms of heaviness of the stroke & more 'penetrability', which ultimately hurt his chances. He needs to take the initiatives and play the points on his term, that's what works well against Djokovic.

Last but not the least, Djokovic exposed Alcaraz's forehand return & forehand on the stretch just like he did at Cincy & RG last year. Alcaraz stood way too much behind the baseline today, and Djokovic used his slider out wide & slider down the T serve to perfection, as the ball dipped while Alcaraz tried to take huge cuts on the ball, dumping it as an error. Alcaraz needs to employ his Wimbledon playbook & opt for a chip FH return, standing closer to the baseline. Because, even when be did get the FH return into play, it was short & sitting high, ideal for Djokovic to start dictating the point straight away. Unless you're Rafael Nadal who can have immaculate depth on the return from behind the baseline while not missing 99% of the returns, you're asking for trouble against an elite spot server and balstriker such as Djokovic. Alcaraz just doesn't have those qualities of Rafa yet, and ends up dumping way too many 1st & 2nd serve FH topspin returns into the net or wide or short for the opponent to strike; so better stick to what you're good at.

So, that's my takeaway from the match. I hope you all liked it. Kindly let me know your feedback through comments & votes about whether I should continue doing such tactical analysis in the future or not, for big matches if possible.


Edit 1 - additional points by @TripleATeam

Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.


The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.


I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
 
Last edited:
Amazing feedback. I agree with all of it. As we said before Djokovic has more time in the rallies on clay. He hit with great precision and depth and alcaraz was a bit too impatient at times. Alcaraz didn’t return that well either so he has to improve that on clay.

It was still a close match though but no doubt Carlos will learn from. It was Djokovic day and he played really well, great serving and not many errors.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Pretty good analysis. I'd mention a few things additionally.

Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.

The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.

I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
 

jeroenn

Professional
I couldn't see the whole match, but I saw bits and pieces. There were some uncharacterstic errors from Carlos in the final tie break and there was the questionable reterun position etc, but most of all, I think it was a display of sheer utter will and desire. No one on the planet wanted that medal more than ND and he poored every bit he could muster into it. I think it's a good example of someone wanted it soo badly that there is a laser focus.
And for sure I hope Alcaraz that he takes this loss and see where it he can learn from it. Having 8 breakpoints in one game and not convert is a thing here. But then again it was still ultra close. Thats when sheer will and desire can make a diff.
 

jl809

Legend
This all seems about right.

  • Clay flipped the serve / return dynamic and gave Djoker the time he badly needed to hang in rallies (contrast that with Wimbledon). He served super well too. Raz’s serve return strategy was an absolute horror show, he also doesn’t hit as heavy a ball as Nadal whose clay returns are still tough even when they drop short. So Djoker was loving it

  • Raz has only had one match where he’s impressed me with his consistency in long rallies and that was the Wim 23 F. Not so many quick kills on clay when someone is defending well as Djoker did here, so Raz had to grind and be rally smart. He wasn’t… and you don’t get to play Abuserev every day

  • Djoker’s FH was great and his overall intensity was very palpable. He was much flatter in his 2 slam demolitions at the AO and Wim than he was today
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Pretty good analysis. I'd mention a few things additionally.

Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.

The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.

I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
Great points, bloke. Would you mind if I add these to the OP by amending it?
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
In a nutshell, his tactics is same ( lack of tactics, point construction) on top of that his return position has been suicidal , making return land short or not in play.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
In a nutshell, his tactics is same ( lack of tactics, point construction) on top of that his return position has been suicidal , making return land short or not in play.
Definitely not the same, man. Just look at the Wimbledon wins from last 2 years. He needs to take some of these changes to CC & HC as well.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Definitely not the same, man. Just look at the Wimbledon wins from last 2 years. He needs to take some of these changes to CC & HC as well.

He played same at Wimbledon this year as last year, thing is his game suits so well at Wimbledon. I didn't see any game plan, point construction or high percentage tennis at Wimbledon either , it took 5 sets against freaking mugs like Tiafoe. Only difference was his return position today and that made him lose the first set. Wasted like 10 bps in first set . He wastes too many bps due to shot selection, bad return, no point construction, low percentage tennis.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Amazing feedback. I agree with all of it. As we said before Djokovic has more time in the rallies on clay. He hit with great precision and depth and alcaraz was a bit too impatient at times. Alcaraz didn’t return that well either so he has to improve that on clay.

It was still a close match though but no doubt Carlos will learn from. It was Djokovic day and he played really well, great serving and not many errors.
Absolutely.
 

MHI

New User
This is for all tennis fans in general; and read this If you're happy or sad, in light mood or angry, enjoying the moment or are disappointed. I'm here to talk about Djokovic defeating Alcaraz in the 2024 Olympics tennis final 76 (3) 76 (2) to claim the Olympic Gold. Ladies and gentlemen, kindly read this and open your consciousness for my analysis.

First of all, huge congratulations to Djokovic, 37 and still strong as a rock, especially when it really matters. He deserved this Gold medal, the final thing that was eluding him. personally speaking, I am extremely happy for him, Serbian people and the nation of Serbia; you and your man totally deserved it. Congratulations once again. (Tagging the only Serb I know of on this forum so far, the 8yo kid @TripleATeam, now don't you dare eat too much chocolate or it'll rot your teeth xD)

Coming back to the result, I think it is somewhat of a learning experience for Alcaraz to be brought back to the ground after the channel slam; from his pre-final interview here, I felt that he was starting to sound arrogant for his usual down-to-earth demeanor, which was not a good sign. Now he'll learn, take his lessons, and be better prepared for the USO series coming up. I feel that he needs some tactical improvements.

Talking about the match, as I said before, Djokovic has a matchup advantage over Alcaraz on clay as long as he moves well. Alcaraz needs to stop trying to outhit Djokovic in heavy, but short landing & centre-ish shots, it just won't work on slow and/or high bouncing courts because Djokovic's lateral movement on the baseline, to & fro movement between net & baseline is still elite; plus his anticipatory skills & ability to block balls on the stretch with depth makes it difficult for Alcaraz to just pound away. Alcaraz needs to spread the court, push Djokovic behind the baseline with heavy & angular strokes (but not outright winner attempts) and expose his declined behind-the-baseline movement. If you saw the match, that much should be very clear to you.

On the other tactical front, I felt that he was letting Djokovic dictate way too much today, just like their previous FO 2023 SF, Cincy F etc. ,Carlos was relying way too much on outrageous gets/winner attempts to win the points. It is an absolute tactical suicide, if you allow Djokovic, an elite ballstriker, to take the initiative and make you run all over the entire area of the court, which would drain you eventually. The reason behind it is that Djokovic wouldn't go for an outright winner and rather be happy to keep you on the move, as he knows he'd win a vast majority of such points by his opponent throwing in an UFE or FE; and even if the opponent does win a few points by sensational retrievals or winners, the percentages are still with the Serbian Veteran. Today, Djokovic was the one in charge of the points more often than not, especially when it really mattered (don't be fooled by the number of Winners), and some of Alcaraz's winners were outrageous shots that he stole, not 'safe' or 'regular' winners. Unlike his matches with Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 & 2024, Alcaraz surrendered way too much court space & initiative to Nole despite having an upper hand in terms of heaviness of the stroke & more 'penetrability', which it hurt his chances. He needs to take the initiatives and play the points on his term, that's what works well against Djokovic.

Last but not the least, Djokovic exposed Alcaraz's forehand return & forehand on the stretch just like he did at Cincy & RG last year. Alcaraz stood way too much behind the baseline today, and Djokovic used his slider out wide & slider down the T serve to perfection, as the ball dipped while Alcaraz tried to take huge cuts on the ball, dumping it as an error. Alcaraz needs to employ his Wimbledon playbook & opt for a chip FH return, standing closer to the baseline. Because, even when be did get the FH return into play, it was short & sitting high, ideal for Djokovic to start dictating the point straight away. Unless you're Rafael Nadal who can have immaculate depth on the return from behind the baseline while not missing 99% of the returns, you're asking for trouble against an elite spot server and balstriker such as Djokovic. Alcaraz just doesn't have that qualities of Rafa yet, and ends up dumping way too many 1st & 2nd serve FH topspin returns into the net or wide or short for the opponent to strike; so better stick to what you're good at.

So, that's my takeaway from the match. I hope you all liked it. Kindly let me know your feedback through comments & votes about whether I should continue doing such tactical analysis in the future or not, for big matches if possible.


Edit 1 - additional points by @TripleATeam

Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.


The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.


I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
I think this doesn’t do justice to Alcaraz. The analysis is a bit one-sided in terms of critiquing Alcaraz’s play and praising Djokovic’s. Some counter-points would add further depth to the analysis and make it more informative and fun to read.

Great job. Just my two cents as a Djokovic fan!
 

Night Slasher

Professional
Nice analysis.
My two impressions (about Carlos) are lack of clutchness in tiebreaks (a bit surprising i must say) with a bit of a passive approach, and the return position of course, which was suicidal against a spot server like Nole, even on clay.
I was aware of his (relatively speaking) lack of patience and he said several times that he prefers faster surfaces (no wonder seeing how explosive he is and how powerful game he has), so was expecting Nole's defense to be a big obstacle especially in best of three, but Carlos didn't do a great job for allowing Nole to take the initiative from the very first shot.
He needed to move closer to the line, should have watched old Bruguera's videos to see how to hug the baseline and return big serves with authority (ok, not all players are capable of this and i was kinda joking).
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
I think this doesn’t do justice to Alcaraz. The analysis is a bit one-sided in terms of critiquing Alcaraz’s play and praising Djokovic’s. Some counter-points would add further depth to the analysis and make it more informative and fun to read.

Great job. Just my two cents as a Djokovic fan!
Djokovic won and Alcaraz lost, so I praised and criticized accordingly.
I am a tactics first man, and Alcaraz's tactical approach didn't please me at all today.
 

SonnyT

Legend
It was only in the TB's where Carlos faltered. Coming in, I thought Carlos just edged Djokovic as the most clutch player of all time. Now the debate is still on! Let it be decided by US and next year's GS.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
It was only in the TB's where Carlos faltered. Coming in, I thought Carlos just edged Djokovic as the most clutch player of all time. Now the debate is still on! Let it be decided by US and next year's GS.
He was not good on return and in rallies throughout the bodies of the sets as well; and in TBs those @Razer (razor) thin margins widen the gap on the scoreline even more.
 

FeroBango

Legend
the reason why carlos lost. one of the reasons mind u

is that he was not able to receive coaching from JCF. that is my take anyway
he seemed clueless without coaching
He literally won a silver with NO ONE from his coaching staff being around. He lost the only match JCF was around for.
 

Better_Call_Raul

Hall of Fame
Any data on groundstroke speed?
Raz was crushing it and Djoker had to often defend.
Although Djoker did some damage with his forehand as well.
 

The Guru

Legend
Djokovic was controlling the rallies greatly man, especially when it mattered.
Djokovic did surprisingly well in rallies but he did not win this match by outrallying Carlos. Carlos was far stronger in converting from advantage if Djokovic gave up attackable balls he was toast and Djokovic was not converting at near the same rate. Djokovic was a little more steady but Carlos's ability to generate offense separated him from the back. Djokovic just had an incredible day on serve and was better on return that's why he won.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
Djokovic did surprisingly well in rallies but he did not win this match by outrallying Carlos. Carlos was far stronger in converting from advantage if Djokovic gave up attackable balls he was toast and Djokovic was not converting at near the same rate. Djokovic was a little more steady but Carlos's ability to generate offense separated him from the back. Djokovic just had an incredible day on serve and was better on return that's why he won.
How would you compare Djokovic's level today to what he showed in 2020-2023?
 

droliver

Professional
Overthinking it.

Novak served well & won the crap shoot that's a tie breaker. That's literally it. Alcaraz was pretty unlucky not to eek out a break to win either or both sets as his level was probably a bit better for most of the match
 

Bastion

Semi-Pro
Good analyses, but clearly all focus is unfortunately only on Carlos problems and mistakes and what he will learn, instead of giving a more balanced analyses of how great Novak played and how he tactically showed his greatness, imho.
 

RaulRamirez

Legend
As a qualitative point, it was wonderful just to see great tennis in the gold medal match between two players who obviously have a lot of respect for one another.
On today's tour, only these two could have produced a match of this quality and cache. Only Sinner versus either one might have played at that level, but he's not yet as big a star.

This may sound like "Captain Obvious", but Novak's hold, serving at 4-4 was the key, fighting off (I'll have to re-watch it at some point) 5 (?) break points in a 14-minute game. If he lost it, I don't think he would have broken right back, and down a set, I just don't know if he could've played three sets of that caliber. So, while that game didn't lose the match for Alcaraz, per se, it kept Novak very much in it.

While, watching, I don't know that this match hinged on tactics. Novak -- in the biggest moments, as he likes to say -- was better. His play in the second tiebreak was absolutely exceptional -- I'll have to rewatch that. Novak, in a huge match for him...and at The Olympics, where he has not historically played his best...managed his emotions - and his tactics -- well all day
 

King_ Zeglan12

Professional
This is for all tennis fans in general; and read this If you're happy or sad, in light mood or angry, enjoying the moment or are disappointed. I'm here to talk about Djokovic defeating Alcaraz in the 2024 Olympics tennis final 76 (3) 76 (2) to claim the Olympic Gold. Ladies and gentlemen, kindly read this and open your consciousness for my analysis.

First of all, huge congratulations to Djokovic, 37 and still strong as a rock, especially when it really matters. He deserved this Gold medal, the final thing that was eluding him. personally speaking, I am extremely happy for him, Serbian people and the nation of Serbia; you and your man totally deserved it. Congratulations once again. (Tagging the only Serb I know of on this forum so far, the 8yo kid @TripleATeam, now don't you dare eat too much chocolate or it'll rot your teeth xD)

Coming back to the result, I think it is somewhat of a learning experience for Alcaraz to be brought back to the ground after the channel slam; from his pre-final interview here, I felt that he was starting to sound arrogant for his usual down-to-earth demeanor, which was not a good sign. Now he'll learn, take his lessons, and be better prepared for the USO series coming up. I feel that he needs some tactical improvements.

Talking about the match, as I said before, Djokovic has a matchup advantage over Alcaraz on clay as long as he moves well. Alcaraz needs to stop trying to outhit Djokovic in heavy, but short landing & centre-ish shots, it just won't work on slow and/or high bouncing courts because Djokovic's lateral movement on the baseline, to & fro movement between net & baseline is still elite; plus his anticipatory skills & ability to block balls on the stretch with depth makes it difficult for Alcaraz to just pound away. Alcaraz needs to spread the court, push Djokovic behind the baseline with heavy & angular strokes (but not outright winner attempts) and expose his declined behind-the-baseline movement. If you saw the match, that much should be very clear to you.

On the other tactical front, I felt that he was letting Djokovic dictate way too much today, just like their previous FO 2023 SF, Cincy F etc. ,Carlos was relying way too much on outrageous gets/winner attempts to win the points. It is an absolute tactical suicide, if you allow Djokovic, an elite ballstriker, to take the initiative and make you run all over the entire area of the court, which would drain you eventually. The reason behind it is that Djokovic wouldn't go for an outright winner and rather be happy to keep you on the move, as he knows he'd win a vast majority of such points by his opponent throwing in an UFE or FE; and even if the opponent does win a few points by sensational retrievals or winners, the percentages are still with the Serbian Veteran. Today, Djokovic was the one in charge of the points more often than not, especially when it really mattered (don't be fooled by the number of Winners), and some of Alcaraz's winners were outrageous shots that he stole, not 'safe' or 'regular' winners. Unlike his matches with Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 & 2024, Alcaraz surrendered way too much court space & initiative to Nole despite having an upper hand in terms of heaviness of the stroke & more 'penetrability', which it hurt his chances. He needs to take the initiatives and play the points on his term, that's what works well against Djokovic.

Last but not the least, Djokovic exposed Alcaraz's forehand return & forehand on the stretch just like he did at Cincy & RG last year. Alcaraz stood way too much behind the baseline today, and Djokovic used his slider out wide & slider down the T serve to perfection, as the ball dipped while Alcaraz tried to take huge cuts on the ball, dumping it as an error. Alcaraz needs to employ his Wimbledon playbook & opt for a chip FH return, standing closer to the baseline. Because, even when be did get the FH return into play, it was short & sitting high, ideal for Djokovic to start dictating the point straight away. Unless you're Rafael Nadal who can have immaculate depth on the return from behind the baseline while not missing 99% of the returns, you're asking for trouble against an elite spot server and balstriker such as Djokovic. Alcaraz just doesn't have that qualities of Rafa yet, and ends up dumping way too many 1st & 2nd serve FH topspin returns into the net or wide or short for the opponent to strike; so better stick to what you're good at.

So, that's my takeaway from the match. I hope you all liked it. Kindly let me know your feedback through comments & votes about whether I should continue doing such tactical analysis in the future or not, for big matches if possible.


Edit 1 - additional points by @TripleATeam

Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.


The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.


I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
Excellent post my man.
This match was decided on two main things in my opinion.

Alcaraz having a poor day with his RoS. No sugarcoating it, he was either netting the returns or just dropping them near service lines giving Djokovic ample time to dictate play on his serve and also hold serve easily

Djokovic hitting his FH like 2011(especially in the tiebreaks). The general shot quality of his forehand was amazing whether he took it down the line, cross or inside out. Hitting with consistent depth and pace.

Alcaraz was not able to boss him around the baseline like I thought he would do because Djokovic brought out his best clay ground stroke level in years.
 

pasta

Professional
Alcaraz was standing too far behind the baseline on few of the crucial second serves ... and in most cases lost the point ... IMO that just gave Djokovic little extra time to settle into the point. Would SABR be more appropriate to disrupt Djokovic's second service routine ?
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Overthinking it.

Novak served well & won the crap shoot that's a tie breaker. That's literally it. Alcaraz was pretty unlucky not to eek out a break to win either or both sets as his level was probably a bit better for most of the match

That's a fair summary
 

nov

Hall of Fame
This is for all tennis fans in general; and read this If you're happy or sad, in light mood or angry, enjoying the moment or are disappointed. I'm here to talk about Djokovic defeating Alcaraz in the 2024 Olympics tennis final 76 (3) 76 (2) to claim the Olympic Gold. Ladies and gentlemen, kindly read this and open your consciousness for my analysis.

First of all, huge congratulations to Djokovic, 37 and still strong as a rock, especially when it really matters. He deserved this Gold medal, the final thing that was eluding him. personally speaking, I am extremely happy for him, Serbian people and the nation of Serbia; you and your man totally deserved it. Congratulations once again. (Tagging the only Serb I know of on this forum so far, the 8yo kid @TripleATeam, now don't you dare eat too much chocolate or it'll rot your teeth xD)

Coming back to the result, I think it is somewhat of a learning experience for Alcaraz to be brought back to the ground after the channel slam; from his pre-final interview here, I felt that he was starting to sound arrogant for his usual down-to-earth demeanor, which was not a good sign. Now he'll learn, take his lessons, and be better prepared for the USO series coming up. I feel that he needs some tactical improvements.

Talking about the match, as I said before, Djokovic has a matchup advantage over Alcaraz on clay as long as he moves well. Alcaraz needs to stop trying to outhit Djokovic in heavy, but short landing & centre-ish shots, it just won't work on slow and/or high bouncing courts because Djokovic's lateral movement on the baseline, to & fro movement between net & baseline is still elite; plus his anticipatory skills & ability to block balls on the stretch with depth makes it difficult for Alcaraz to just pound away. Alcaraz needs to spread the court, push Djokovic behind the baseline with heavy & angular strokes (but not outright winner attempts) and expose his declined behind-the-baseline movement. If you saw the match, that much should be very clear to you.

On the other tactical front, I felt that he was letting Djokovic dictate way too much today, just like their previous FO 2023 SF, Cincy F etc. ,Carlos was relying way too much on outrageous gets/winner attempts to win the points. It is an absolute tactical suicide, if you allow Djokovic, an elite ballstriker, to take the initiative and make you run all over the entire area of the court, which would drain you eventually. The reason behind it is that Djokovic wouldn't go for an outright winner and rather be happy to keep you on the move, as he knows he'd win a vast majority of such points by his opponent throwing in an UFE or FE; and even if the opponent does win a few points by sensational retrievals or winners, the percentages are still with the Serbian Veteran. Today, Djokovic was the one in charge of the points more often than not, especially when it really mattered (don't be fooled by the number of Winners), and some of Alcaraz's winners were outrageous shots that he stole, not 'safe' or 'regular' winners. Unlike his matches with Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 & 2024, Alcaraz surrendered way too much court space & initiative to Nole despite having an upper hand in terms of heaviness of the stroke & more 'penetrability', which it hurt his chances. He needs to take the initiatives and play the points on his term, that's what works well against Djokovic.

Last but not the least, Djokovic exposed Alcaraz's forehand return & forehand on the stretch just like he did at Cincy & RG last year. Alcaraz stood way too much behind the baseline today, and Djokovic used his slider out wide & slider down the T serve to perfection, as the ball dipped while Alcaraz tried to take huge cuts on the ball, dumping it as an error. Alcaraz needs to employ his Wimbledon playbook & opt for a chip FH return, standing closer to the baseline. Because, even when be did get the FH return into play, it was short & sitting high, ideal for Djokovic to start dictating the point straight away. Unless you're Rafael Nadal who can have immaculate depth on the return from behind the baseline while not missing 99% of the returns, you're asking for trouble against an elite spot server and balstriker such as Djokovic. Alcaraz just doesn't have that qualities of Rafa yet, and ends up dumping way too many 1st & 2nd serve FH topspin returns into the net or wide or short for the opponent to strike; so better stick to what you're good at.

So, that's my takeaway from the match. I hope you all liked it. Kindly let me know your feedback through comments & votes about whether I should continue doing such tactical analysis in the future or not, for big matches if possible.


Edit 1 - additional points by @TripleATeam

Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.


The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.


I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
Im pretty sure if it was Rolland Garros final, Alcaraz would win with the game he played today. But it was most important match for Djokovic. Im not sure we could blame Alcaraz, he played really good. Djokovic refuse to give up even it was everything set for him to give up.
 

Bastion

Semi-Pro
The games in the two sets were 50/50

The goat difference came in the two TB, when it really mattered, much like Wimby final in 2019.

Epic stuff, Novak, like he did here at RG last year, and with Cincy, took Carlos to a new level (in TB action) in which the future ATG could not keep up, maybe later in his career he can do that level.
 
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Sport

G.O.A.T.
Epic stuff, Novak, like he did here at RG last year, and with Cincy, took Carlos to a new level (in TB action)
What new level did Novak bring to Carlos at RG (in TB action) in 2023 when there were no TBs and Carlos had cramps after rhe 2nd set? Come on, the RG 2023 SF was 50/50 before the cramps.

I'll give you that Novak was fairly superior to Carlos today, but not only in the TB. Overall as well. In the second set, Novak was reaching 40-0 with his service games most of the time, while Alcaraz had to save break proins and had to dealt with the pressure of Novak's return all the time.

Novak served light outs and Carlos could not damage his serve in the 2nd set. It was an almost forgone conclusion Novak would win the 2nd set TB.
 
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