This is for all tennis fans in general; and read this If you're happy or sad, in light mood or angry, enjoying the moment or are disappointed. I'm here to talk about Djokovic defeating Alcaraz in the 2024 Olympics tennis final 76 (3) 76 (2) to claim the Olympic Gold. Ladies and gentlemen, kindly read this and open your consciousness for my analysis.
First of all, huge congratulations to Djokovic, 37 and still strong as a rock, especially when it really matters. He deserved this Gold medal, the final thing that was eluding him. personally speaking, I am extremely happy for him, Serbian people and the nation of Serbia; you and your man totally deserved it. Congratulations once again. (Tagging the only Serb I know of on this forum so far, the 8yo kid
@TripleATeam, now don't you dare eat too much chocolate or it'll rot your teeth xD)
Coming back to the result, I think it is somewhat of a learning experience for Alcaraz to be brought back to the ground after the channel slam; from his pre-final interview here, I felt that he was starting to sound arrogant for his usual down-to-earth demeanor, which was not a good sign. Now he'll learn, take his lessons, and be better prepared for the USO series coming up. I feel that he needs some tactical improvements.
Talking about the match, as I said before, Djokovic has a matchup advantage over Alcaraz on clay as long as he moves well. Alcaraz needs to stop trying to outhit Djokovic in heavy, but short landing & centre-ish shots, it just won't work on slow and/or high bouncing courts because Djokovic's lateral movement on the baseline, to & fro movement between net & baseline is still elite; plus his anticipatory skills & ability to block balls on the stretch with depth makes it difficult for Alcaraz to just pound away. Alcaraz needs to spread the court, push Djokovic behind the baseline with heavy & angular strokes (but not outright winner attempts) and expose his declined behind-the-baseline movement. If you saw the match, that much should be very clear to you.
On the other tactical front, I felt that he was letting Djokovic dictate way too much today, just like their previous FO 2023 SF, Cincy F etc. ,Carlos was relying way too much on outrageous gets/winner attempts to win the points. It is an absolute tactical suicide, if you allow Djokovic, an elite ballstriker, to take the initiative and make you run all over the entire area of the court, which would drain you eventually. The reason behind it is that Djokovic wouldn't go for an outright winner and rather be happy to keep you on the move, as he knows he'd win a vast majority of such points by his opponent throwing in an UFE or FE; and even if the opponent does win a few points by sensational retrievals or winners, the percentages are still with the Serbian Veteran. Today, Djokovic was the one in charge of the points more often than not, especially when it really mattered (don't be fooled by the number of Winners), and some of Alcaraz's winners were outrageous shots that he stole, not 'safe' or 'regular' winners. Unlike his matches with Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 & 2024, Alcaraz surrendered way too much court space & initiative to Nole despite having an upper hand in terms of heaviness of the stroke & more 'penetrability', which ultimately hurt his chances. He needs to take the initiatives and play the points on his term, that's what works well against Djokovic.
Last but not the least, Djokovic exposed Alcaraz's forehand return & forehand on the stretch just like he did at Cincy & RG last year. Alcaraz stood way too much behind the baseline today, and Djokovic used his slider out wide & slider down the T serve to perfection, as the ball dipped while Alcaraz tried to take huge cuts on the ball, dumping it as an error. Alcaraz needs to employ his Wimbledon playbook & opt for a chip FH return, standing closer to the baseline. Because, even when be did get the FH return into play, it was short & sitting high, ideal for Djokovic to start dictating the point straight away. Unless you're Rafael Nadal who can have immaculate depth on the return from behind the baseline while not missing 99% of the returns, you're asking for trouble against an elite spot server and balstriker such as Djokovic. Alcaraz just doesn't have those qualities of Rafa yet, and ends up dumping way too many 1st & 2nd serve FH topspin returns into the net or wide or short for the opponent to strike; so better stick to what you're good at.
So, that's my takeaway from the match. I hope you all liked it. Kindly let me know your feedback through comments & votes about whether I should continue doing such tactical analysis in the future or not, for big matches if possible.
Edit 1 - additional points by @TripleATeam
Alcaraz was clearly excelling in his touch and his forehand when he got his feet planted. With that in mind, his goal automatically should've been dictating play and getting Djokovic defensive (so he can get a neutral ball that he can pound away at). Alcaraz is good with shotmaking, so each attack would end up favoring him in the long term. The touch would be a good way to neutralize the ball as well. A dropshot into a net rush (as Djokovic does the CC counterdrop 90% of the time) would set up a quick point, or neutralize the ball to such a degree that it's his to dictate. He didn't do that often enough.
The major problem for Alcaraz is getting into the rally after the serve. Djokovic's serve was amazing today. Alcaraz needs to neutralize that via a better return (whether that's doing a lower % return or improving the high % return, I don't care), but then he can rely on his strengths.
I think Alcaraz believed Djokovic would stop playing his peak game soon enough and he'd capitalize with consistent play. But Alcaraz got nervy when he needed not to be (some weird misses) and Djokovic's level didn't drop enough for him to take advantage.
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