Match Analysis - Djokovic def. Alcaraz @ 2024 Olympics Final

[KingCarlitos]

Wins Roland Garros. Makes it to the Olympic final without dropping a set. Never gets broken in the final and loses in two TBs to the undisputed GOAT of tennis.

TTW verdict - scrub on clay. It is a hard life.

I think It can be determined as his worst surface but not by much.

 

[Third Serve]

Wins Roland Garros. Makes it to the Olympic final without dropping a set. Never gets broken in the final and loses in two TBs to the undisputed GOAT of tennis.

TTW verdict - scrub on clay. It is a hard life.

You can be overrated and still good. I’m just saying I think it’s pretty clearly his worst surface regardless of results. But unfortunately that’s a level of nuance you don’t seem to be ready for yet since you had trouble reading more than a sentence of my post before typing up this ridiculous one.

 

[socallefty]

You can be overrated and still good. I’m just saying I think it’s pretty clearly his worst surface regardless of results. But unfortunately that’s a level of nuance you don’t seem to be ready for yet since you had trouble reading more than a sentence of my post before typing up this ridiculous one.

I read your whole post and it doesn’t match what I see. The gap between Alcaraz and the field is greater on clay than on other surfaces. Unfortunately the gap between him and current Djokovic is less on clay than on grass. Djokovic can withstand Alcaraz’s power better on clay where he has more time.

Djokovic used to have the same problem on clay where he was much better than the field than on other surfaces, but he was not better than Nadal which is why he has a weaker Grand Slam record on clay.

Both these guys have a game that translates well on all surfaces and I don’t think there there is a clear cut answer on which surface is their best. You also can’t look at one or two losses or close matches and judge the entirety of their careers on each surface based on that.

 

[top10]

The Olympics final was all about clutch play with the two tiebreaks deciding everything.
Novak was just much better in the clutch - the rest was even.

 

[Third Serve]

I read your whole post and it doesn’t match what I see. The gap between Alcaraz and the field is greater on clay than on other surfaces. Unfortunately the gap between him and current Djokovic is less on clay than on grass. Djokovic can withstand Alcaraz’s power better on clay where he has more time.

Djokovic used to have the same problem on clay where he was much better than the field than on other surfaces, but he was not better than Nadal which is why he has a weaker Grand Slam record on clay.

Both these guys have a game that translates well on all surfaces and I don’t think there there is a clear cut answer on which surface is their best. You also can’t look at one or two losses or close matches and judge the entirety of their careers on each surface based on that.

This isn’t just true of Djokovic, though. He doesn’t matter here. Alcaraz gets in trouble very often on clay against lesser players like Zverev and Sinner to an extent that hasn’t really been matched on other surfaces.

The big thing is that he can be very impatient on the court, which gets punished way more on clay than on other surfaces. He also uses his groundstrokes far more offensively and takes greater risks than most players who succeed on clay—this rewards him more on surfaces like grass and hard, hence him winning a Slam on clay after the other two surfaces. At the Masters, his big successes have come in Madrid which is the closest the clay season gets to hard court tennis. It isn’t all that close to the more traditional dirtballing you see at Rome, MC, and RG. It’s why Fed loved those conditions but didn’t find the same success at MC and Rome, being an offensively-minded player.

When Alcaraz was getting accustomed to the tour and he was kind of a twig physically, his speed gave him an edge on clay which is why a lot of his early titles came from there but now that his groundstrokes have matured, he takes the big risks you would expect from a hard or grass court specialist.

That said, he has solid enough fundamentals that he can play well on any surface. It’s just pretty clear to me that hard and grass reward his playing style more than clay. I legitimately don’t see how you could come away with a different conclusion unless you view Alcaraz as a spiritual successor to his fellow Spaniard Nadal and all that.

 

[ppmishra]

This isn’t just true of Djokovic, though. He doesn’t matter here. Alcaraz gets in trouble very often on clay against lesser players like Zverev and Sinner to an extent that hasn’t really been matched on other surfaces.

The big thing is that he can be very impatient on the court, which gets punished way more on clay than on other surfaces. He also uses his groundstrokes far more offensively and takes greater risks than most players who succeed on clay—this rewards him more on surfaces like grass and hard, hence him winning a Slam on clay after the other two surfaces. At the Masters, his big successes have come in Madrid which is the closest the clay season gets to hard court tennis. It isn’t all that close to the more traditional dirtballing you see at Rome, MC, and RG. It’s why Fed loved those conditions but didn’t find the same success at MC and Rome, being an offensively-minded player.

When Alcaraz was getting accustomed to the tour and he was kind of a twig physically, his speed gave him an edge on clay which is why a lot of his early titles came from there but now that his groundstrokes have matured, he takes the big risks you would expect from a hard or grass court specialist.

That said, he has solid enough fundamentals that he can play well on any surface. It’s just pretty clear to me that hard and grass reward his playing style more than clay. I legitimately don’t see how you could come away with a different conclusion unless you view Alcaraz as a spiritual successor to his fellow Spaniard Nadal and all that.

Well, his current racquet weight (i don't know his swing weight) and string setup makes him a spiritual equipment successor to pre 2008 nadal anyway, but he would do well to understand when nadal added significant mass to his frame and how much that revitalized his career, especially after he lost his natural speed post 2016. and i am sure that will help him from deep positions if that's his preference on clay, plus help him maintain better length.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

He has attributes that are excellent weapons on clay like his touch, drop shots and defensive speed. At the end of the day, like Federer, he has a killer mindset and doesn’t naturally have the patience for the surface. I’m not going to fault him though as I can’t stand grinders who just want to play percentages and draw errors. It’s the ****tiest style of play to watch and it’s a travesty that that style of play has made its way to the majority of hard courts.

You sound salty! Hehe

 

[Operation20]

Strong strong analysis in this thread!

 

[Neptune]

You can be overrated and still good. I’m just saying I think it’s pretty clearly his worst surface regardless of results. But unfortunately that’s a level of nuance you don’t seem to be ready for yet since you had trouble reading more than a sentence of my post before typing up this ridiculous one.

Good luck claiming clay as Raz's worst surface, keep it in mind and we will see your latest quality of eyetest in a few years.

 

[Neptune]

@Rafa4LifeEver Good job, mate. You were a little too harsh on Raz, though. This was a very high-quality match, and Nole was unbelievable in the two TBs.

“I have to start by saying that I thought my level was really high. I’m really happy with my performance today. A little bit disappointed by not playing my best in some difficult situations — tiebreakers, for example — he [Djokovic] increased his level at the top and I couldn’t, so a bit sad when thinking of those moments, but I have to see everything in a different way, so I think I did a great tournament, I did a great match. I’m really proud of myself.”
— Alcaraz (Press conference quotes)

 

[ppmishra]

Good luck claiming clay as Raz's worst surface, keep it in mind and we will see your latest quality of eyetest in a few years.

to be fair, Juan Carlos himself said clay was carlos worst surface at one point. it is clear he has to make some adjustments despite his excellent record on clay. thats not in doubt. as third serve said, he plays really well as madrid like federer regardless because of the faster conditions despite the high bounce. he can break Rafas record here. but he has played well at Barcelona though he struggles big time at monte carlo.

 

[Third Serve]

Good luck claiming clay as Raz's worst surface, keep it in mind and we will see your latest quality of eyetest in a few years.

What he does in the future won’t have an effect on this eye test now. For him to improve his standing on clay relative to the other two surfaces he’d need to be more patient in rallies and not go for broke as often as he does.

Like how is this not immediately obvious to a viewer?

 

[bw114]

I completely agree with @Third Serve. Alcaraz's normal level of tennis regardless of surface is enough above the rest of the tour's (except for a healthy Novak) that his game on clay can look dominant, that he can win RG. These are demonstrative of his ability as a tennis player, but not necessarily his ability as a clay courter. Clay exposes the only real flaws in Alcaraz's game, which are a lack of ability to construct points and a lack of discipline/patience in rallies, which go hand in hand with each other. Clay does highlight Alcaraz's ridiculous speed/court coverage—I think he's already faster than prime Novak or Nadal—but this more serves to hide the effects of his deficiencies on the surface. He's not "bad on clay" in the sense he's the best player on clay of his generation because he's the best tennis player of his generation, but it's definitely the surface he's least dominant on. I do think down the road as he continues to mature he will improve on the surface, but primarily as a result of maturing his decision making as opposed to anything explicitly technical in his game.

I also think the fact he's Spanish and shares so many stylistic similarities to Nadal blind people to this.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

@Rafa4LifeEver Good job, mate. You were a little too harsh on Raz, though. This was a very high-quality match, and Nole was unbelievable in the two TBs.

“I have to start by saying that I thought my level was really high. I’m really happy with my performance today. A little bit disappointed by not playing my best in some difficult situations — tiebreakers, for example — he [Djokovic] increased his level at the top and I couldn’t, so a bit sad when thinking of those moments, but I have to see everything in a different way, so I think I did a great tournament, I did a great match. I’m really proud of myself.”
— Alcaraz (Press conference quotes)

I am harsh on him because I don't see any tactical awareness or improvements from him outside of grass courts. On HC & Clay, he is playing the same game as 2022, albeit with a somewhat better serve.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

What did alcaraz say in his post match interview?

It's possible novak is still a problem for carlos. Looking back gives a different perspective. We can't read anything from the wimby '24 final as novak was just coming back and didn't have his best game. Carlos smartly capitalized on it from the start of the match.

But when carlos lost to novak here at the Olympics, at cinci '23, and against medvedev at uso '23, strategy seemed lacking.

As I said before, he still plays the very same game on clay & HC, trying to pound his way through the opponents without tactical gear shifts, strategies etc.

 

[Mainad]

Given he's just won RG, it seems to me that Alcaraz's worst surface is far better than most players' best surfaces!

 

[ppmishra]

I completely agree with @Third Serve. Alcaraz's normal level of tennis regardless of surface is enough above the rest of the tour's (except for a healthy Novak) that his game on clay can look dominant, that he can win RG. These are demonstrative of his ability as a tennis player, but not necessarily his ability as a clay courter. Clay exposes the only real flaws in Alcaraz's game, which are a lack of ability to construct points and a lack of discipline/patience in rallies, which go hand in hand with each other. Clay does highlight Alcaraz's ridiculous speed/court coverage—I think he's already faster than prime Novak or Nadal—but this more serves to hide the effects of his deficiencies on the surface. He's not "bad on clay" in the sense he's the best player on clay of his generation because he's the best tennis player of his generation, but it's definitely the surface he's least dominant on. I do think down the road as he continues to mature he will improve on the surface, but primarily as a result of maturing his decision making as opposed to anything explicitly technical in his game.

I also think the fact he's Spanish and shares so many stylistic similarities to Nadal blind people to this.

And change something in his racquet if he has to play on slower clay from deep positions. i am honestly surprised he hasn't so far. Nadal did it much later in his career (2017 and after)

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

And change something in his racquet if he has to play on slower clay from deep positions. i am honestly surprised he hasn't so far. Nadal did it much later in his career (2017 and after)

Higher SW

 

[Neptune]

Given he's just won RG, it seems to me that Alcaraz's worst surface is far better than most players' best surfaces!

'regardless of results'

 

[bw114]

And change something in his racquet if he has to play on slower clay from deep positions. i am honestly surprised he hasn't so far. Nadal did it much later in his career (2017 and after)

Agreed. This is honestly a problem for a lot of Next-Gen and New-Gen players, and not just on slower clay (though slower clay exacerbates the issue). Lighter frames have allowed for the current groundstroke archetype where they can destroy the ball—think even of Jack Sock, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas. But the lighter frame also causes less stability on groundstrokes, but especially on RoS. Sinner and Alcaraz obviously overcome this because they have better mechanics and talent than others, but I think long term it will help them so much. I think Djokovic has something like the highest SW on tour

 

[Tostao80]

The Olympics final was all about clutch play with the two tiebreaks deciding everything.
Novak was just much better in the clutch - the rest was even.

The return of serve from both was far from even. I'd go as as saying the Carlos return in general, especially the 2nd (more so on break points) was not good. So many net returns, shanked returns.
Oh Carlos.

 

[Third Serve]

I completely agree with @Third Serve. Alcaraz's normal level of tennis regardless of surface is enough above the rest of the tour's (except for a healthy Novak) that his game on clay can look dominant, that he can win RG. These are demonstrative of his ability as a tennis player, but not necessarily his ability as a clay courter. Clay exposes the only real flaws in Alcaraz's game, which are a lack of ability to construct points and a lack of discipline/patience in rallies, which go hand in hand with each other. Clay does highlight Alcaraz's ridiculous speed/court coverage—I think he's already faster than prime Novak or Nadal—but this more serves to hide the effects of his deficiencies on the surface. He's not "bad on clay" in the sense he's the best player on clay of his generation because he's the best tennis player of his generation, but it's definitely the surface he's least dominant on. I do think down the road as he continues to mature he will improve on the surface, but primarily as a result of maturing his decision making as opposed to anything explicitly technical in his game.

I also think the fact he's Spanish and shares so many stylistic similarities to Nadal blind people to this.

Exactly. Alcaraz is still probably the best clay court player on tour right now but that’s just because of his overall game being fundamentally sound, not because of anything special he does on clay.

Pretty much everything in his game except his raw footspeed is rewarded more and punished less on grass and hard compared to clay.

 

[ppmishra]

Agreed. This is honestly a problem for a lot of Next-Gen and New-Gen players, and not just on slower clay (though slower clay exacerbates the issue). Lighter frames have allowed for the current groundstroke archetype where they can destroy the ball—think even of Jack Sock, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas. But the lighter frame also causes less stability on groundstrokes, but especially on RoS. Sinner and Alcaraz obviously overcome this because they have better mechanics and talent than others, but I think long term it will help them so much. I think Djokovic has something like the highest SW on tour

Djokovic reduced his slightly 360 and 18x19 pattern. nadal is actually higher 370 though with a lower static weight from what I've read.
I forgot to add the forearm injury that carlos suffered though that was more in part due to the strings he used and he changed this

 

[InsideOut900]

What he does in the future won’t have an effect on this eye test now. For him to improve his standing on clay relative to the other two surfaces he’d need to be more patient in rallies and not go for broke as often as he does.

Like how is this not immediately obvious to a viewer?

I don't think patience is his biggest issue.

The spin of the surface messes up his footwork and balance, which in turn means he has to work extra hard to generate consistent pace, unlike grass and HC where he can plant his foot firmly and accelerate.

His FH has some consistent weight at least, but his BH suffers a lot.

And the other thing is that he struggles to spread the court properly, he mostly hits spinny shots in the strike zone of his opponent and tries to outmuscle them.

Clay is the surface that allows most lateral move and angle usage and not taking advantage of that limits your potential on it

 

[ppmishra]

I think It can be determined as his worst surface but not by much.

as becker said..."success is a process, one can't achieve it by clicking a button". he needs time and enough practice + experiment with more racquet mass like his new service technique. It can be done but he and his coach has to prioritize that and acknowledge what he needs to do. Never easy, but i hope he will eventually get there.
But he did the right thing by skipping Montreal for now. and i hope he puts in the work later.

 

[KingCarlitos]

as becker said..."success is a process, one can't achieve it by clicking a button". he needs time and enough practice + experiment with more racquet mass like his new service technique. It can be done but he and his coach has to prioritize that and acknowledge what he needs to do. Never easy, but i hope he will eventually get there.
But he did the right thing by skipping Montreal for now. and i hope he puts in the work later.

Becker getting through 100 lawsuits is also a process lol.

 

[ppmishra]

Becker getting through 100 lawsuits is also a process lol.

yeah, but he knew how to coach Djokovic. and he knows something about tennis whatever else he may have been outside of it. he isn't wrong. He also said the competition never sleeps. at the end of the day results aren't the only thing. motivation and continuous improvement is part of it.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

I don't think patience is his biggest issue.

The spin of the surface messes up his footwork and balance, which in turn means he has to work extra hard to generate consistent pace, unlike grass and HC where he can plant his foot firmly and accelerate.

His FH has some consistent weight at least, but his BH suffers a lot.

And the other thing is that he struggles to spread the court properly, he mostly hits spinny shots in the strike zone of his opponent and tries to outmuscle them.

Clay is the surface that allows most lateral move and angle usage and not taking advantage of that limits your potential on it

I agree with you, pal. He needs to upgrade his equipment to the one with atleast 15% higher SW & HW, practice with it in the off season and be ready for an assault on thr tour.
The current one is the root cause for many of his technical flaws and arm related injuries.

 

[GoatNo1]

uncle toni:

"The images of Carlos [Alcaraz] crying on the court with clear signs of grief and frustration have left us with a bitter feeling, but they must not make us think that this is a defeat," Toni wrote in El Pais column.

"He lost a match that could have been in his favour, giving his best at all times, fighting until the last ball as we know he usually does, and holding in suspense an entire country that enjoyed watching him for his great tennis and his passion. His silver medal against the best tennis player in history deserves, without a doubt, all our admiration," he added.

 

[socallefty]

The current one is the root cause for many of his technical flaws

What are his technical flaws? How will another racquet correct them?

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

What are his technical flaws? How will another racquet correct them?

Many flaws,