Carlos Alcaraz beat Jannik Sinner 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) in the Beijing final, 2024 on hard court
It was Alcaraz’ first title at the event and his third win over Sinner in the year, with no losses. Sinner, the defending champion, had recently won US Open and would shortly after win Shanghai
Alcaraz won 132 points, Sinner 120
Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (74/123) 60%
- 1st serve points won (54/74) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (27/49) 55%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/123) 21%
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (71/129) 55%
- 1st serve points won (47/71) 66%
- 2nd serve points won (31/58) 53%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/129) 20%
Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 7%
Sinner served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 5%
Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 99 (30 FH, 69 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 7 return-approaches
- 3 Winners (1 FH, 2 BH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (99/125) 79%
Sinner made...
- 95 (33 FH, 62 BH)
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (95/121) 79%
Break Points
Alcaraz 3/15 (8 games)
Sinner 2/6 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 49 (25 FH, 6 BH, 9 FHV, 7 BHV, 2 OH)
Sinner 24 (15 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Alcaraz' FHs - 6 cc (2 passes, 1 at net), 1 dtl, 3 dtl/inside-out (1 pass), 6 inside-out, 1 inside-out/down-the-middle, 2 inside-in (1 return), 1 inside-in/cc, 4 drop shots, 1 lob
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl (2 returns, 2 passes)
- 1 from a serve-volley point, a FHV
- 2 from return-approach points (1 FHV, 1 BHV).... the FHV was a re-approach point
- 1 other FHV was a swinging cc, non-net shot
Sinner's FHs - 6 cc (1 return, 1 at net), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl, 4 inside-out (2 at net - 1 pass), 1 inside-out/longline, 1 longline, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc at net, 2 dtl (1 return, 1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl at net, 1 lob
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 68
- 51 Unforced (21 FH, 26 BH, 4 FHV)... with 1 swinging baseline FHV
- 17 Forced (9 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & the Back-to-Net was at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1
Sinner 53
- 34 Unforced (17 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 19 Forced (5 FH, 12 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was...
- 32/45 (71%) at with, including...
- 4/5 (80%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 6/7 (86%) return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back
Sinner was 16/32 (50%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back
Match Report
Intense and high quality affair with both players playing well. Alcaraz has more better of action than he does scoreline and is better at most things. Particularly pertinent is his successful use of net to augment offensive advantage off the FH and in shotmaking. Sinner has the better, more solid BH but trails slightly in almost all other areas. Court is normal
6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) looks like it might be a coin flip match. It isn’t and Alcaraz has significantly better of things
Alcaraz wins 52.4% of the points, serving 48.8% of them. Despite Alcs serving outlier 22 point game
Break points - Alcs 3/15 (8 games), Sinner 2/6 (4 games)
Alcs is up a break for much of first set and fails to serve it out. He has break/set point near the end of it. He’s up for most of the tiebreak too and has 2 set points at 6-4 - 1 of them on his own serve
Alcs is up a break in third set too and threatens to make it 2 breaks before Sinner manages to level. He again has break point in his last regular return game
And of course, wins the middle set with a break
Despite all that, its Sinner that looks good for the win with 3-0 lead (2 min-breaks) in the final tiebreak. He doesn’t win another point with Alcs raining fire for rest of it (after a leisurely break to change his shoes when down 3-0)
Alcs with better of all basic stats - +5% first serve in, +7% first serve won, +2% second serve won
Alcs with higher lot of unreturned serves (negligible amount)
Alcs with half the double faults (small for both players)
Alcs with twice the winners
Alcs forcing a couple more errors
Sinner with substantially UEs (less than his handicap in winners)
Gist of all this is Sinner’s done well or/and been lucky to keep the match as close as it is. Would have been a pinch if he’d won it. It happens. What happens far more often is better player in almost all areas winning
Stats of interest are -
- freebies being virtually equal (Alcs 21%, Sinner 20%), which given the games of the two players is a big win for Alcs
- Alcs having better of FHs, where has 25 winners, 21 UEs. Sinner with good 15 winners, 17 UEs shwoing himself
- Sinner having better of BHs, where he has UE advantage 15-26 (winners are about equal, but that’s secondary matter on that wing)
- Alcs’ success at net, where he wins 71% of 45 approaches (Sinner wins exactly 50% of 32)
Serve & Return
The returning is better than the serving and both players good in both areas, and in similar ways. Solidly strong serving, a step above in punishing returning
Nice to see 2 players taking returns early and looking to boss with the second shot. Both are on the baseline to return second serves, both thump (not block) returns. Neither fall too far back against first serves. Rare in this era, where taking every return from well-back is so common
Both return at 79% (or conversely, unreturned rates are Alcs 21%, Sinner 20%). Just on consistency grounds (the area that falling back to return helps), that’s excellent. Its not a slow court and neither serve gently. Throw in thumping returning, and its better still
Sinner with stronger first serve, but Alc’s is no gimme
Very similar breakdown in types of unreturned serves. Both with 26 freebies. From returner’s point of view -
Aced/service winner’d - Alcs 7, Sinner 6
Return FE - Alcs 10, Sinner 9
Return UE - Alcs 9, Sinner 11
Very similar by wings too. Alcs with 12 FH errors, 7 BHs (Sinner serving to FH 34%), Sinner with 12 FH errors, 8 BHs (Alcs serving to FH 38%)
So disproportionately high lot of FH return errors. That’s related to both players occasionally going for aggressive returns off that side more often. They also scoring winning FH returns more often than BHs, particularly Sinner. Alcs early taken BH inside-in is as damaging as his FHs
Return winners - Alcs 3, Sinner 2
You’d be hard pressed to find a match where two players have such similar return stats in all areas
In light of Sinner with stronger serve, Alcs must have returned better
Sinner with bigger first serve and he comes to boom down a few seconds too, in response to Alcs’ punishing returns. Yet Alcs returns at same rate, and double faults less (he’s got 2, Sinner 4 - not too big a deal, but its not a point against Alcs)
Alcs particularly quick in moving for first return. Sinner’s not far from exemplary himself, Alcs is special
On top of the extra winner, Alcs thumping 7 return-approaches, winning 6 of them (also has an error trying)
Typical return is firm from both players, with considerably amount deep, punishing, even potentially point-ending. Much like their groundstrokes (more on that in a bit). This ain’t no strong-serve-draws-weak-return-&-plus-1-commands action. Takes pointed intent for server to stay on top of things for the third ball or put another way, would be very easy to stay in neutral. Both players have that intent, and both win majority of second serve points (Alcs 55%, Sinner 53%), despite consistent and heavy returning
Alcs with a nasty habit of delivering aces at important times. He doesn’t serve many (just 8% of first serves), but at good times
Gist - close to even on serve-return (and freakishly similar statistically in almost all ways), Alcs maybe with edge
Sinner with bigger serve (both of them), but Alcs landing 5% more first serves and double faulting less. And Alcs very timely in finding his best serves
On return front, Alcs has to be (and is) that much quicker to handle the bigger serve. Thumped return approaches giving him advantage in aggression (both players are punishing with their early taken, thumped deep returning)
Statistical gist - both players with return rate 79%. Given match-up, that’s a win for Alcs
It was Alcaraz’ first title at the event and his third win over Sinner in the year, with no losses. Sinner, the defending champion, had recently won US Open and would shortly after win Shanghai
Alcaraz won 132 points, Sinner 120
Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (74/123) 60%
- 1st serve points won (54/74) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (27/49) 55%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/123) 21%
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (71/129) 55%
- 1st serve points won (47/71) 66%
- 2nd serve points won (31/58) 53%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/129) 20%
Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 7%
Sinner served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 5%
Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 99 (30 FH, 69 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 7 return-approaches
- 3 Winners (1 FH, 2 BH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (99/125) 79%
Sinner made...
- 95 (33 FH, 62 BH)
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (95/121) 79%
Break Points
Alcaraz 3/15 (8 games)
Sinner 2/6 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 49 (25 FH, 6 BH, 9 FHV, 7 BHV, 2 OH)
Sinner 24 (15 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Alcaraz' FHs - 6 cc (2 passes, 1 at net), 1 dtl, 3 dtl/inside-out (1 pass), 6 inside-out, 1 inside-out/down-the-middle, 2 inside-in (1 return), 1 inside-in/cc, 4 drop shots, 1 lob
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl (2 returns, 2 passes)
- 1 from a serve-volley point, a FHV
- 2 from return-approach points (1 FHV, 1 BHV).... the FHV was a re-approach point
- 1 other FHV was a swinging cc, non-net shot
Sinner's FHs - 6 cc (1 return, 1 at net), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl, 4 inside-out (2 at net - 1 pass), 1 inside-out/longline, 1 longline, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc at net, 2 dtl (1 return, 1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl at net, 1 lob
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 68
- 51 Unforced (21 FH, 26 BH, 4 FHV)... with 1 swinging baseline FHV
- 17 Forced (9 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & the Back-to-Net was at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1
Sinner 53
- 34 Unforced (17 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 19 Forced (5 FH, 12 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was...
- 32/45 (71%) at with, including...
- 4/5 (80%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 6/7 (86%) return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back
Sinner was 16/32 (50%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back
Match Report
Intense and high quality affair with both players playing well. Alcaraz has more better of action than he does scoreline and is better at most things. Particularly pertinent is his successful use of net to augment offensive advantage off the FH and in shotmaking. Sinner has the better, more solid BH but trails slightly in almost all other areas. Court is normal
6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) looks like it might be a coin flip match. It isn’t and Alcaraz has significantly better of things
Alcaraz wins 52.4% of the points, serving 48.8% of them. Despite Alcs serving outlier 22 point game
Break points - Alcs 3/15 (8 games), Sinner 2/6 (4 games)
Alcs is up a break for much of first set and fails to serve it out. He has break/set point near the end of it. He’s up for most of the tiebreak too and has 2 set points at 6-4 - 1 of them on his own serve
Alcs is up a break in third set too and threatens to make it 2 breaks before Sinner manages to level. He again has break point in his last regular return game
And of course, wins the middle set with a break
Despite all that, its Sinner that looks good for the win with 3-0 lead (2 min-breaks) in the final tiebreak. He doesn’t win another point with Alcs raining fire for rest of it (after a leisurely break to change his shoes when down 3-0)
Alcs with better of all basic stats - +5% first serve in, +7% first serve won, +2% second serve won
Alcs with higher lot of unreturned serves (negligible amount)
Alcs with half the double faults (small for both players)
Alcs with twice the winners
Alcs forcing a couple more errors
Sinner with substantially UEs (less than his handicap in winners)
Gist of all this is Sinner’s done well or/and been lucky to keep the match as close as it is. Would have been a pinch if he’d won it. It happens. What happens far more often is better player in almost all areas winning
Stats of interest are -
- freebies being virtually equal (Alcs 21%, Sinner 20%), which given the games of the two players is a big win for Alcs
- Alcs having better of FHs, where has 25 winners, 21 UEs. Sinner with good 15 winners, 17 UEs shwoing himself
- Sinner having better of BHs, where he has UE advantage 15-26 (winners are about equal, but that’s secondary matter on that wing)
- Alcs’ success at net, where he wins 71% of 45 approaches (Sinner wins exactly 50% of 32)
Serve & Return
The returning is better than the serving and both players good in both areas, and in similar ways. Solidly strong serving, a step above in punishing returning
Nice to see 2 players taking returns early and looking to boss with the second shot. Both are on the baseline to return second serves, both thump (not block) returns. Neither fall too far back against first serves. Rare in this era, where taking every return from well-back is so common
Both return at 79% (or conversely, unreturned rates are Alcs 21%, Sinner 20%). Just on consistency grounds (the area that falling back to return helps), that’s excellent. Its not a slow court and neither serve gently. Throw in thumping returning, and its better still
Sinner with stronger first serve, but Alc’s is no gimme
Very similar breakdown in types of unreturned serves. Both with 26 freebies. From returner’s point of view -
Aced/service winner’d - Alcs 7, Sinner 6
Return FE - Alcs 10, Sinner 9
Return UE - Alcs 9, Sinner 11
Very similar by wings too. Alcs with 12 FH errors, 7 BHs (Sinner serving to FH 34%), Sinner with 12 FH errors, 8 BHs (Alcs serving to FH 38%)
So disproportionately high lot of FH return errors. That’s related to both players occasionally going for aggressive returns off that side more often. They also scoring winning FH returns more often than BHs, particularly Sinner. Alcs early taken BH inside-in is as damaging as his FHs
Return winners - Alcs 3, Sinner 2
You’d be hard pressed to find a match where two players have such similar return stats in all areas
In light of Sinner with stronger serve, Alcs must have returned better
Sinner with bigger first serve and he comes to boom down a few seconds too, in response to Alcs’ punishing returns. Yet Alcs returns at same rate, and double faults less (he’s got 2, Sinner 4 - not too big a deal, but its not a point against Alcs)
Alcs particularly quick in moving for first return. Sinner’s not far from exemplary himself, Alcs is special
On top of the extra winner, Alcs thumping 7 return-approaches, winning 6 of them (also has an error trying)
Typical return is firm from both players, with considerably amount deep, punishing, even potentially point-ending. Much like their groundstrokes (more on that in a bit). This ain’t no strong-serve-draws-weak-return-&-plus-1-commands action. Takes pointed intent for server to stay on top of things for the third ball or put another way, would be very easy to stay in neutral. Both players have that intent, and both win majority of second serve points (Alcs 55%, Sinner 53%), despite consistent and heavy returning
Alcs with a nasty habit of delivering aces at important times. He doesn’t serve many (just 8% of first serves), but at good times
Gist - close to even on serve-return (and freakishly similar statistically in almost all ways), Alcs maybe with edge
Sinner with bigger serve (both of them), but Alcs landing 5% more first serves and double faulting less. And Alcs very timely in finding his best serves
On return front, Alcs has to be (and is) that much quicker to handle the bigger serve. Thumped return approaches giving him advantage in aggression (both players are punishing with their early taken, thumped deep returning)
Statistical gist - both players with return rate 79%. Given match-up, that’s a win for Alcs