Match Stats/Report - Alcaraz vs Sinner, Indian Wells semi-final, 2024

[Waspsting]

Carlos Alcaraz beat Jannik Sinner 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the Indian Wells semi-final, 2024 on hard court

Alcaraz, the defending champion, would go onto win the title, beating Daniil Medvedev in the final. Sinner had recently won his maiden Slam at the Australian Open and would immediately after win Miami title

Alcaraz won 75 points, Sinner 71

Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (47/72) 65%
- 1st serve points won (33/47) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (13/25) 52%
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (7/72) 10%

Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (46/74) 62%
- 1st serve points won (30/46) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (15/28) 54%
- Aces 3 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/74) 20%

Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 9%

Sinner served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 57 (36 FH, 21 BH), including 9 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (6 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (57/72) 79%

Sinner made...
- 63 (23 FH, 40 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 7 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 2 Forced (2 FH)
- Return Rate (63/70) 90%

Break Points
Alcaraz 3/6 (4 games)
Sinner 2/4 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 19 (10 FH, 2 BH, 5 FHV, 1 OH, 1 BHOH)
Sinner 18 (5 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 3 OH)

Alcaraz' FHs - 1 dtl, 5 inside-out, 3 inside-in (1 return), 2 drop shots
- BHs - 1 dtl, 1 net chord dribbler

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley FHV that can reasonably be called an Oh
- the OH was on the bounce

Sinner's FHs - 2 cc (1 return, 1 pass), 2 dtl, 1 inside-out
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass, 1 at net), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out, 2 running-down-drop-shot cc at net (1 pass)

- 2 from serve-volley points, both first 'volleys' (1 FHV, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from the baseline (a forced back point)
- 1 other FHV was swinging inside-in from teh baseline

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 36
- 22 Unforced (11 FH, 11 BH)
- 14 Forced (11 FH, 3 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.5

Sinner 47
- 38 Unforced (27 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & the FHV was a non-net swinging shot
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was...
- 10/15 (67%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 0/1 forced back

Sinner was...
- 15/20 (75%) at net, including...
- 4/4 (100%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/3 off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Simple, but multi-part match; Sinner can’t miss a return to start, can’t land a FH to finish and Alcaraz edges him out in between, when both are playing well. Court is normal

Each set has its own story, so match long stats are quite deceptive

Sinner’s FH has 27 UEs. Putting that perspective -
- both players combined have 22 unreturned serves
- Alcs has 19 winners, Sinner 18
- Alcs has 22 UEs from all shots, Sinner 11 non-FH ones
- both players combined have 23 FEs

Most obvious reading of above is Sinner’s FH being terrible and losing him match. Just 5 winners to go with it - half of Alcs’ and lower than his own BHs - so little cut-back into how bad it is from that direction
In fact, it loses him the last set only. There, it has 13 UEs (a non-net swinging FHV is a virtual 14th) in 8 games. Alcs has 0
Rest of match, it’s good, though not as good as Alcs’. FH UEs for first 2 sets read Alcs 11, Sinner 14

Sinner has 90% return rate (or Alcs having 10% unreturend serves). Putting that in (skewed) perspective, Alcs would have 39% unreturned in the final against Daniil Medvedev, who is renowned for high returning consistency
(That perspective is skewed because Medvedev in the final had a bad return day, contrary to his norm) Still, Alcs’ serving display is roughly good for 20-30% freebies, not 10%

Would think 90% return rate in Sinner’s thumping returning style would lead to all kinds of trouble for opponent all match
In fact, its only critical in first set. There, Sinner leads freebies 30% to 6%
Rest of match, freebies read Sinner 16%, Alcs 11%

The only pointedly high quality part of match is the middle set, which is filled with the kind of intense power baselining of both players in good form

There, Alcs has 12 winners, 9 UEs (he forces 2 errors), Sinner 6 winners, 13 UEs (but he forces 6 errors) and break points read Alcs 1/1, Sinner 0/2 (2 games)
No single neat factor decides that one

A random, ‘clutch’ one would be the sound-bite one
Down break point while serving for the set, Alcs drills a BH dtl winner from normal position in typical hard hitting BH-BH rally
Its his first BH winner of the match (his only other one later is a net chord dribbler). He hasn’t played a shot like it before and doesn’t after. It’s a hell of a shot to go for out of the blue at a time like that - and he nails it perfectly

Would call it stupid if he missed. Given not using the shot at all, would expect him to miss too (or wonder why he doesn’t use it more, if he can pull one like that off at a time like that)
With Alcs though, neither the shot choice nor the successful execution is out of ordinary. He generally (as in, beyond this match) tends to trust his shot-making in crucial moments and also to deliver. Just another example of that

That’s a soundbite summary of the second set. More broadly, it’s a very good set of tennis, evenly matched and Alcs edges it

Nice 19 winners, 22 UEs showing from Alcs. Overshadowed by Sinner’s 27 FH UEs match long (Sinner has 18 winners, 38 UEs)
Practically, he plays near 1:1 winners/UE ratio in second set amidst high end staple action to take the second set

Match in 3 nutshells -
Sinner iron consistent returning in first set
Alcs coming out ahead in even, high quality second
Sinner spraying FHs in the third

 

[Waspsting]

Serve & Return
Good in counts (Alcs 65%, Sinner 62%), heart quality serves, lots of shifting about of return positions, low freebies (Alcs 10%, Sinner 20%)

Both players vary their return positions. From full back to on baseline and most points in between
Alcs switching around more and taking more backward position on average. Sinner thumping a few more second returns from on baseline
Why does Alcs habitually shift his return position within a match so much? Ordinarily, would think it’s an experiment to try and find whatever ends up working best for a given match. That seems to be what Sinner’s doing here

With Alcs, its possible he does this to try to disrupt servers groove because he does it almost every match. Does he do it even when he's returning cozily? Despite return rate, he doesn't have it easy to make the return here
Alcs with 9 runaround FH returns. Not something he usually does

Return rates as high as 90% and 79% typically go with low force of shot
Not really true here. Both swing at the return as much as possible and prefer a light swing to a firm block when options there
Server retaining small initiative for third ball at least
Both players win majority of second serve points (Alcs 52%, Sinner 54%). Not something associated with such high return rates

Gist - Sinner very consistent on the return, Sinner gaining double the freebies (both low), Sinner with a few more early thumped second returns and Sinner getting better of serve-return
And good job by both returners to return at such high rates. The serving is good, the returning that much better

Play - Baseline & Net
Takes a few games for both players to get into their power-hitting grooves. When they reach it, they carry on with it (regardless of consistency fluctuating). Dual winged, power hitting. Both players up to handling the others power and hitting back in kind. Intense stuff

Against each other, often turns into a un-lively ball-bashing contest. That’s because both move so well and have such shot resistance. As hard as both hit the ball, would push back and draw weaker and weaker balls from most players, most likely sooner rather than later

Alcs with slightly stronger FH, and more willing to go for kill shots with it
Sinner with slightly stronger BH. Neither player looking for kill shots much, but Sinner slightly, Alcs virutally never (which is what makes the stunner down break point so memorable)

Again, with action changing across different sets, match long stats are of limited value

Winners and UEs by shot, in baseline rallies -
- FHs - Alcs 10 and 11, Sinner 4 and 27
- BHs - Alcs 2 and 11, Sinner 3 and 10

On the FH, Sinner’s 27 UEs (anti-)dominates everything else due to the breakdown in third set.

Even sans that, Alcs’ FH with by far most winners giving his shot the advantage
5 inside-out winners and 2 inside-in (sans a return) from Alcs. Bit unusual for him to be striking so many from ad court. He’s generally a central player who doesn’t like to back-away to play FHs in lieu of powerful stock BHs
He doesn’t actually back away much; plugs away at the BH-BH rallies, backs off when he’s drawn shorter ball (including with the serve) and has a shot at winner. Its more aggro than Sinner shows, but not unduly looking for kill shots from Alcs

The drop shots help in keeping Sinner from falling back too much. Sinner’s on look out for it and runs most down well. But both threat and actuality of droppers keeps Sinner from falling back too much. Also, the power keeps him from staying too close to baseline to watch for droppers

And Sinner’s FH eventually falling apart horribly. He does keeps striking well through even that phase

Sinner hitting harder off the BH. Doesn’t really lead to tangible advantage in points won and lost. ‘Hitting harder’ means only slightly harder and rallies continue to be contest for controlling, with Alcs not giving ground or easing up in his own force. Few attacking line change-ups from Sinner (anything slightly wide is potentially attacking, but usually thwarted by perfeclty moving players), that Alcs is usually upto handling

UE breakdown -
- neutral - Alcs 14, Sinner 24
- attacking - Alcs 6, Sinner 9
- winner attempts - Alcs 2, Sinner 5

Again, neutrals are twisted by last set. Otherwise near even

Alcs forces 9 errors (6 regular, 2 passes, 1 volley) for his 6 attacking UEs
Sinner forces 14 errors (8 regular, 6 passes) for his 9 attacking UEs
Roughly even, with Alcs actually doing better in baseline rallies. Its getting on the attack that’s difficult due to power of both players, not attacking itself

19 winners for 2 misses is outstanding for Alcs. A combo of measured risk taking, pouncing on rare chances, but also health amount of pretty easy openings set up by serve (which is always likely to happen when opponent returns at 90%)
Sinner with 18 winners, 5 misses. He’s in similar boat for openings, but less willing to pounce from small chances (set up by serve or otherwise). He goes for his kill shots off both wings, unlike Alcs who favours FH for the finish.

Both players use net to finish some, about equally net thirsty. The groundies don’t invite approaching and promise hot passing welcome

Rallying to net - Alcs 8/12, Sinner 11/16
Both players serve-volley a little to, to take advantage of returner falling back (Alcs is 2/3, Sinner 4/4 so doing)

Not too much work to do on the volley. Sinner’s higher number approaches down to having to deal with drop shots

Gist - bar Sinner’s FH collapse at the end, things are well poised
After they get settled, very intense, dual winged power baseling
Alcs slightly stronger FH, along with balanced moxie in stepping up to attack or finish
Sinner slightly stronger BH, more apt to persist with attempts at beat-down hitting than attacking like Alcs does off the other wing. Emphasis on ‘slight’, Alcs’ not backing down a bit and pounding ball back very hard too

Match Progression
Little feeling out phase for 3 games. Sinner chucks in a surprise second serve-volley to finish his second hold

There’s a lengthy rain delay and Sinner comes out nice and warm and runs out the set 6-1
Doesn’t miss a return for 2 games, and hitting the ball well. Meanwhile, scoring with is own serve. Alcs outhit a bit

First break is pretty bad game from Alcs. 1/5 first serves, could of third ball BH UEs, adventurous FH winner attempt miss from center of court and a double fault to finish
Couple of good games after that. Sinner saving break point and slightly outhitting Alcs
And then breaking to 15 again in a pretty brutal game. Swinging inside-in FHV winner from the baseline stands out. And he serves out to 30

Action picks up in second set and both players beefing up their hitting to intimidating levels. Alcs’ drop shots add an extra dimension to dynamic, with Sinner on look out for it and coping well
Break points for the set - Alcs 1/1, Sinner 0/2 (2 games)

Alcs grabs the break for 3-1, opening and ending the game with overpowering FH cc’s that he uses to get to net and hit FHV winners from

Point of the match following game where serve-volleying Alcs drop volley leads to a very rapid exchange of running-down-drop-shots drop shots exchange. Sinner comes away the point, that has both players smiling

Sinner holds to love for 2-4 with 4 winners - jumping BH cc, BH cc pass, BHV after being drop shotted in and a BH running-down-drop-shot cc at net

He raises break point game after with a pounded FH cc return winner against a first serve. Rally develops on it and BH dtl is there for the shot, but Sinner misses, before Alcs goes on to hold

Next go around sees Alcs serving for set. Its brutal game and Sinner again reaches 30-40. Alcs saves break point with earlier mentioned BH dtl winner from a hard-hitting rally
Alcs finishes the set with a nice FH drop shot winner, with Sinner falling back, anticipating a big cut FH - and its onto decider

Sinner maintains the form of his shots (as in, the way they look and how cleanly he strikes) in it. If only the FHs didn’t keep landing out
Making a short story shorter, Sinner’s FH goes error haywire

He’s go 4 FH UEs, along with a swinging non-net FHV to get broken for 1-2. Final point is spicy, with a net chord roll over drawing Alcs to net, where he’s able to make a difficult, wide reflex volley to stay in the point. Sinner takes a painful tumble in racing down the forced drop volley, but manages to put up a lob, that Alcs is able to control down with BHOH winner, with Sinner on the ground, racquet out of hand

He’s got 4 more FH UEs to get broken next go around too and shortly after, Alcs serves out the match. Nice match point, where FH line draws a short slice that Alcs move over and dispatches FH inside-out for winner

Summing up, slightly odd, but not a bad match
Alcaraz with better FH - more powerful, more adventurous in attacking, more variety with the drop shots.
Sinner with better BH - more powerful, slightly more willing to attack, with neither player doing so often
Both returning very steadily against good serving, both varying their return positions regularly

Sinner’s FH collapsing settles the result, after phases of his being more solid wins him a set and Alcaraz hits back by edging the next with both players at something like their best

Stats for the final between Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...-wells-finals-2023-2024.764669/#post-17993225

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Insane turnaround by Carlos after the demolition job by Sinner in set 1, which had @dking68 licking his chops for a 6-1 6-2 win for Sinner.

 

[aldeayeah]

Stats for the final between Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Alcaraz vs Medvedev, Indian Wells finals, 2023 & 2024 | Talk Tennis

Great read as always! This link was broken for me BTW, leads to the main page instead of the thread.

 

[dking68]

Insane turnaround by Carlos after the demolition job by Sinner in set 1, which had @dking68 licking his chops for a 6-1 6-2 win for Sinner.

He didn’t look well at all after set 1. He started missing a lot of easy forehands. I watched that match and it was a poor forehand match from Sinner

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

He didn’t look well at all after set 1. He started missing a lot of easy forehands. I watched that match and it was a poor forehand match from Sinner

Carlos raised his level & outplayed+outclutched him in set 2.
It was in this match that he started playing tactically genuis tennis against Sinner instead of trying to outgun or outhit him.

Sinner's forehand didn't break apart completely until the nasty fall in set 3, in set 2 it was Carlos's gutsy play & tactical brilliance which held a very well playing Sinner at bay.