Match Stats/Report - Alcaraz vs Sinner, Rome final, 2025

[Waspsting]

Carlos Alcaraz beat Jannik Sinner 7-6(5), 6-1 in the Rome final, 2025 on clay

It was Alcaraz’ first title at the event and with the result, he completed full set of clay court masters titles. He had recently won Monte Carlo for the first time also. It was Sinner’s first final at the event or at a clay masters event and his first tournament after serving a 3 month suspension

Alcaraz won 74 points, Sinner 59

Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (48/75) 64%
- 1st serve points won (35/48) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (16/27) 59%
- Aces 4
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/75) 27%

Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (35/58) 60%
- 1st serve points won (25/35) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (10/23) 43%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/58) 31%

Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 5%

Sinner served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 16%

Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 37 (18 FH, 19 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (37/55) 67%

Sinner made...
- 53 (17 FH, 36 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (7 FH, 5 BH)
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (53/73) 73%

Break Points
Alcaraz 2/3 (3 games)
Sinner 0/2 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 15 (12 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV)
Sinner 6 (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)

Alcaraz' FHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl/inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 longline at net, 4 drop shots
- BH - 1 dtl

Sinner's FHs - 1 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl
- BHs - 2 dtl, 1 drop shot at net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 33
- 25 Unforced (18 FH, 7 BH)
- 8 Forced (2 FH, 5 BH, 1 OH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.4

Sinner 36
- 23 Unforced (12 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 13 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH, 1 OH, 1 BHOH, 1 Over-Shoulder)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was 5/7 (71%) at net

Sinner was 3/11 (27%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
One coin flip, server dominated set and 1 wipeout. Alcaraz rallies smartly and in time, finds something like his best shot-making to surge ahead. Sinner largely survives off very good serving, but is outplayed in all ways from the baseline and falters some on the return

Drastic difference in the 2 sets makes match long stats of limited use. Stand outs would be relatively high freebies (Sinner 31%, Alcs 27%). Sinner’s is due to excellent serving, Alcs also serves well, within limits of ability and Sinner’s returning has a hand

Predictably, Alcs with large lead in winners (15-6… he also leads errors forced 13-8, which is less predictable), and more importantly, staying even on UEs (he has 25, Sinner just 23). The rallying contest is a bit unusual; neither players consistency is impressive, but both players’ ball striking is good. Alcs tends to outlast Sinner to draw errors in longer rallies. He mixes up pace, spin and trajectory of his shots nicely to make it tricky for Sinner to get into his usual hitting groove. Alcs also misses high lot of third ball groundies to near sloppy territory, with Sinner’s thumped to firm returning having a hand

Mixed up pace, spin and trajectory
Thumped to firm returns

Good stuff. Not so good that its likely to stump top class players
To be clear, the two players aren’t ‘stumped’ by it, but they’re far from taking it in stride. ‘Troubled’ is a good word for the problems it creates

Generally speaking, Alcs would be expected to lead aggressively ended points, as he does, so its staying even on UEs that’s more important for him
As for his lead in winners (and errors forced), that all comes in the breadstick. Two players are virtually even on that front after grindy, ball-bash’y, serve-shot centered first set
In second, Alcs turns it on and pastes Sinner, aided by a disastrous drop in first serve percentage, who serves at 23% for the set
It’s a good sign for Alcs to have forced 13 errors, to go with 15 winners. He’s often prone to skipping middle ground of attacking and just flay winners. One of the things that makes him such a crowd favourite. Also, one of the things that makes him prone to getting upset (more broadly, losing)

First set - coin flip
No breaks, both players with 1 game with break points in it (Alcs has 1 chance, Sinner 2)
Alcs serving 42 points for his 6 holds, Sinner 39
Some good serving from both and its nice to see both look to be aggressive with the second return, with mixed results for both

First serve in - Alcs 56%, Sinner 71%
First serve won - Alcs 78%, Sinner 75%
Second serve won - Alcs 57%, Sinner 46%

Freebies - Alcs 26%, Siner 36%
Sinner serves particularly well - both for the high in count and the power and placement of those serves. Alcs isn’t bad either - not as powerful, not as well placed as opponent - but pretty good

Early on, both return from half-back to well-back against first serves, but both step in to take second serves moving forward from on the baseline starting point. As set goes on, Alcs is all over the place for first returns - from full-back to on the baseline and all points in between. Varies a bit against second serves too, though mostly stays just behind baseline and still moving forward as he strikes. Sinner varies less, taking first returns slightly earlier than start of match (still far from ‘early’ in normal sense - just earlier than well-back)

Movement for the return isn’t great. Its most noticable for Sinner because great movement could make his job comfy. Alcs by contrast would be up against tough task regardless, though he does move better than Sinner

Good to pretty good first serves draw errors from both players. Make most, miss a few trying to pound the second return early too. Sinner gets powerful second returns off more often

Match long numbers (not just first set) -
Aces - Alcs 4, Sinner 1
Return UEs drawn - Alcs 12, Sinner 7
Return FEs drawn - Alcs 4, Sinner 10

Alcs misses 12 first returns (2 marked UEs), 5 seconds
Sinner misses 10 first returns (7 marked UEs), 5 seconds (1 marked FE)

Proportion of first return errors marked UEs (most of Alcs, very few of Sinners) good indicator of strenght of each players first serve. Pretty good serving from Alcs, but from cozily backward returning position, not too troubling to put in play. Sinner’s movement for the return isn’t always sharp either. Scope for Sinner to bump his return rate 5% or so

On flip side, very strong serving from Sinner. Alcs tries every returning position there is and struggles in all of them

Both players with some thumped, early taken second returns inside court. Not wide hit and not powerful to forceful degree (as in, if it draws third ball error, it’ll still be marked UE), but enough to force a neutral third ball shot or put another way, thoroughly discourage aggressive third ball. Sinner does this all first set, though oddly falls back to return normally second set. Sinner getting such thumped returns off more often

Gist of serve-return - Sinner with more powerful serve, Sinner not as consistently quick on the return, but making firmly thumped ones more often
For match long gist, throw in Sinner’s in count going down the toilet in second set to 23%

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Alcs 6 (5 FH, 1 FHV), Sinner 4 (2 FH, 2 BH)
Errors forced - Alcs 7 (5 groundies, 1 pass, 1 at net), Sinner 6 (6 groundies)
(Aggressively finished points - Alcs 13, Sinner 10)
UEs - Alcs 17 (12 FH, 5 BH), Sinner 19 (11 FH, 7 BH, 1 BHV)

Given 36%-26% lead in freebies, would expect Sinner to have won this set

For starters, those are ball-bashing or grindy numbers, not point construction and attacking ones - and that’s an accurate description of action

Relatively high lot of Alcs UEs are third ball shots (on both serves). Good enough returns from Sinner to keep Alcs from looking to attack, but very much UEs. Nearing close to sloppy
For UEs to be virtually equal, that means Alcs has won the bulk of points after 2 have traded a number of shots

Neutral UEs - Alcs 11, Sinner 14
Attacking UEs - Alcs 6, Sinner 2
Winner attempt UEs - Sinner 3 (includes the sole volley)

Confirming action is power-hitting and grindy
Set is almost pure baseline. 2 players share 3 net points - 1 is net point for both players, drop shot related - going into tiebreak

Groundies winners and UEs -
- Alcs FH 6 and 12
- Sinner FH 2 and 11
- Alcs BH 0 and 5
- Sinner BH 2 and 7 (1 of the winners is a net shot)

FHs on the frontline, with 23 UEs, to 12 on the BH
Alcs’ is the most powerful shot on show. Winners aside, he’s more apt to push Sinner back than other way around

BHs are about equal in power, with Alcs, despite 0 winners, more apt to to go wide attackingly. Its rare, and they generally stick to rallying - powerfully or firmly. Sinner has raw power to rarely just crash through Alcs, but can’t push him back

The two ease into match. Early on, plain neutral exchanges, ending in UEs. After getting eye in, both strike powerfully and UEs are more pressured
Its among the power exchanges that Alcs throws in different loops and paces. Its good move, and works to keep Sinner from getting too grooved in his easy hitting

With his handy 10% freebie lead, would expect near equality in court action to favour Sinner. The return UEs he gives up is probably worth it, to keep Alcs from attacking from the third ball. He’s implemented ball-bashing dynamic, that probably favours him as the generally more consistent player

Only Alcs stays even on the UE front, while giving as he good as he gets of power. If anything, shading it

As for result, there’s nothing in it
Alcs has 1 break point, where he misses a relatively simple first return, while barely moving his feet.
Sinner’s 2 break points are also set points. He misses routine first return on the first and takes on a BH dtl for the winner that he misses on the second. Not a shot he was playing at all, but a good, calculated shot-choice
The choice to dash to net - his first voluntary approach of the match - to start tiebreak is easier to call unwise and Sinner misses the volley
To end the set, Alcs similarly manufactures an approach and comes away with net to net FHV winner

Second set - wipe out
Second set is a lot simpler: Sinner’s first serve disappears and Alcs creams him, QED

First serve in - Alcs 78%, Sinner 23%
First serve won - Alcs 67%, Sinner 33%
Second serve won - Alcs 67%, Sinner 40%

Freebies - Alcs 29%, Sinner 15%

Sinner falls back to return second serves. Taking second returns early wasn’t what lost him first set and it had worked fairly well. Nothing wrong with trying something different - presumably, the aim is to make more returns at cost of allowing Alcs more comfy set up for third ball

Sinner with 23% first serves in. Would be a big problem at best of times. Here, he’s getting outplayed thoroughly on top of it. He only serves 3 first serves. Alcs maintaining his serving quality, at higher in count and scoring corresponding more freebies

Winners - Alcs 9 (7 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV), Sinner 2 (1 BH, 1 FHV)
Errors forced - Alcs 6 (4 groundies, 2 ‘at net’), Sinner 2 (1 pass, 1 at net)
(Aggressively ended points - Alcs 15, Sinner 4)
UEs - Alcs 8 (6 FH, 2 BH), Sinner 4 (1 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)

The Carlos Alcaraz show. Note Sinner with low UEs. Alcaraz outhits him and finishes with winners and by forcing errors. Drop shots are the best of them. FH leads, but BH has hand in set up too
Couple of remarkable ‘gets’ and pinching points he has no business winning thrown in. Alcs has 0 winner attempt UEs for the match
Whatever else Sinner does, he doesn’t ease up on his hitting, and just overpowering him is no small feat

Match Progression
3-4 games of feeling out to open. Sinner holds twice to 30 (6 unreturned serves), Alcs twice in 8-point games. All but 3 rally points ending in UEs

The hitting improves from there to powerful and pressuring. Sinner starts game 5 with a running, winning third ball FH dtl against a very strong return. The game lasts 12 points, Alcs has 1 break point in which he misses routine first return that he doesn’t move his feet for. Sinner completes hold with 2 powerful, error forcing BH cc’s

It’s on the 44th point of the match when someone takes net. They both do, springing from a middling Sinner drop shot. He comes away with a BH drop shot at net winner on it

Hitting gets better and action more intense as set goes on, with serve still scoring. Alcs takes to varying his position, without much change in fortune. Sinner varies some too. Sinner with some strong early taken second returns

Serving to send set into tiebreak, Alcs falls to 15-40 off ground UEs. Sinner misses a routine return on first break/set point. A BH-BH rally develops on the second, that Sinner looks to end with a BH dtl, but misses. After 12 points, Alcs completes the hold

Tiebreak. Sinner manufactures an approach on the first point. He’s faced with a low volley, but one he has fully covered with open court to play to - and misses
Alcs sends down 2 of his best serves, both aces
Next go around, he double faults to put things back on serve
Net chord dribbling return brings Sinner to net, and Alcs’ lob is good enough to win the point. 5-3 and then 5-4, Alcs with 2 service points to follow
He slaps a third ball FH inside-in winner against a decent return; type of shot he hasn’t been going for and it takes him to 6-4
Sinner with a brutal, winning BH cc to put things back one serve
Alcs does what Sinner did on the first point and manufactures an approach off a strong BH dtl. He needs 2 volleys to finish - the second one easy and well set up by the first

Sinner changes things up in second set by dropping back to return second serves. Starts the set with a FHV winner. Score reaches deuce

Alcs wins 18/22 points from there to reach 5-0

After Alcs holds, Sinner’s broken to love to go down 0-2. Double fault and third ball FH UE from him, couple of commanding points from Alcs does it
Alcs starts turning it on and strikes 3 FH winners in a row to consolidate (longline at net, third ball inside-out and a wonderful drop shot)

Better return game to break again, though there are no first serves in the 5 points. Alcs smacking a BH dtl winner to end a long rally, somehow pinching a point with a winning lob and drawing an error with a drop shot to reach 15-40. Terrible FHV miss by Sinner to finish

The best of Alcs’ shot-making and defence are on show as he moves to 5-0
He hits a ludicrous FH drop shot winner while stretched out; an exhibition shot, the kind of thing Brown or Kyrgios might try
Just as ridiculously, he defends his way out of a hopeless postion to throw up a lob that forces an over-the-shoulder error from a forced back Sinner; Sinner just grins as he sits down

After Sinner gets on board, Alcs serves out the match in a deuce game, finishing with winners from FH inside-in from normal position and a stretched FHV off a drop shot play

Summing up, 1 coin flip set, 1 exhibition of Carlos Alcaraz’ prowess
Alcaraz holds up trading groundstrokes, power for power. Smartly mixes up his shots to keep opponent from getting too grooved. FH is the most damaging shot on show, as well as the most powerful, BH is a power and consistency match for opponent, with choice attackingly wide cc shots thrown in. Some marvelous defence too

Sinner hits the ball well, but struggles to break through or even push Alcaraz back. His first serve is very damaging

On the room-for-improvement side of things, Sinner’s return consistency can do with a bump, given well-back position and how well he moves varies. Much of action is hard-hitting and UEs springing out such dynamic are not unbecoming, but there’s minority but significant amount of mundane rallying and UEs, especially early on from both players

 

[nolefam_2024]

Watching the first set, I was thinking raz could go up a level and sinner was playing near his base good level. Had similar feelings in Beijing.

Both these guys return of serve is so bad. I want to gouge out my eyes. This is because I think watching Rafa on clay and djokovic return serve, we are spoiled a bit.

 

[Spin Diesel]

I wouldn‘t call their returns bad. They just often seem to return worse when playing each other.

 

[jl809]

 

[7thKingSlam]

Watching the first set, I was thinking raz could go up a level and sinner was playing near his base good level. Had similar feelings in Beijing.

Both these guys return of serve is so bad. I want to gouge out my eyes. This is because I think watching Rafa on clay and djokovic return serve, we are spoiled a bit.

This rivalry has been super nervy with the weight of trying to follow the big 3 rivalries imo. Alcaraz has come out nervous damn near every first set in this rivalry, somehow won RG2024 despite playing poorly for the first 3 sets more or less. In this match it felt like after he won that first set he finally loosened up and then played an awesome level in the 2nd.
Hope they get over this stuff soon and we get a truly high quality Sinner/Alcaraz matchup. Beijing last year was decent, maybe with it being a 500 they felt less pressure.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Funny to see folks talking about bad return games and comparing to other past players. Few percentage points. Nadal leads it all, but Alcaraz is already making his way up. Sinner can certainly improve in this area, but still 36 all time career so far.

	Player	Return Rating	% 1st Serve Return Points Won	% 2nd Serve Return Points Won	% Return Games Won	% Break Points Converted
3	Rafael Nadal	160.9	33.1%	54.0%	30.7%	43.1%
5	Novak Djokovic	158.9	32.5%	54.2%	29.0%	43.2%
11	Carlos Alcaraz	154.5	33.2%	52.9%	28.5%	39.9%
36	Jannik Sinner	149.0	30.5%	53.2%	24.7%	40.6%