Match Stats/Report - Alcaraz vs Struff, Madrid final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Carlos Alcaraz beat Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in the Madrid final, 2023 on clay

Alcaraz was the defending champion. Stuff had entered the draw as a ‘lucky loser’ and is to date, the only such player to reach the final of a masters event

Alcaraz won 99 points, Struff 96

Struff serve-volleyed about half the time off first serves and occasionally off seconds

Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (64/91) 70%
- 1st serve points won (43/64) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (15/27) 56%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/91) 37%

Struff...
- 1st serve percentage (53/104) 51%
- 1st serve points won (40/53) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (23/51) 45%
- Aces 4 (1 second serve), Service Winners 3 (1 can reasonably be called a non-clean ace)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (27/104) 26%

Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 19%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 17%

Struff served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 7%

Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 72 (44 FH, 28 BH), including 15 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (9 FH, 1 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 10 Forced (3 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (72/99) 73%

Struff made...
- 54 (18 FH, 36 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 4 Winners (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 32 Errors, comprising...
- 18 Unforced (3 FH, 15 BH)
- 14 Forced (4 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (54/88) 61%

Break Points
Alcaraz 3/11 (5 games)
Struff 2/8 (6 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 17 (10 FH, 6 BH, 1 OH)
Struff 22 (7 FH, 3 BH, 3 FHV, 7 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH)

Alcaraz' FHs - 3 cc (1 runaround return pass - not clean), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 runaround return pass), 1 drop shot, 1 lob, 1 longline (bad bounce related whiff)
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 2 dtl at net, 1 inside-in return pass, 2 drop shots

Stuff had 10 from serve-volley points
- 4 first 'volleys' (1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH)
- 6 second volleys (6 BHV)

- 1 from a return-approach point

- FHs - 4 cc (2 returns), 1 inside-out at net, 1 inside-in, 1 lob
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 return), 1 inside-out return

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 44
- 22 Unforced (13 FH, 9 BH)
- 22 Forced (8 FH, 14 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net. 1 FH and 1 BH can reasonably be called OH and BHOH respectively - they're baseline shots on bounce and passing attempts against at-net smashes
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.8

Struff 43
- 29 Unforced (10 FH, 10 BH, 2 FHV, 7 BHV)
- 14 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH, 1 BHOH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was...
- 9/15 (60%) at with, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 0/2 forced back/retreated

Struff was...
- 36/57 (63%) at with, including...
- 21/34 (62%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 18/25 (72%) off 1st serves and...
- 3/9 (33%) off 2nd serves
---
- 2/2 return-approaching
- 3/3 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Messy, interesting, curious and very close. Whoever wins can said to be a little lucky or at very least, owe a considerable lot to the opponent. Alcaraz wins and he does have better of things in last phase of match to a greater extent than either player has had at any other time

Very close. Struff has break points in 6 games, 1 more than Alcs, but Alcs breaks the extra time

Interesting. Struff serve-volleys, leading to kind of action that’s rare during the period. He’s a big guy, who you’d think would have a big serve and Madrid tends to help such players

Curious. Biggest difference between the two players is unreturned serves and its Alcs who leads it with large 37% to 26%. Lot of things going into that (more on it later), but that wouldn’t be what you’d think would be big difference between these two players

Messy. Its not a good match. Struff is slow, baseline rallies are mediocre, so is the volley vs pass contest. Competitive, but below par quality

Struff is a big guy. And looks to serve-volley off virtually all first serves at start. Which doesn’t come to much because he can’t seem to buy a first serve. In time, he comes to stay back as often as not

His serve is very odd mix. By his size, you’d think he might have a huge first serve and/or likely to get a lot of them in. He does neither. Match long, just 51% first serves in, which is good, after first set of just 40%. Just a few huge first serves later on. Not high enough to be too concerning for returner (he’s not likely to serve Alcs off court), and typical first serve is not too troubling to return

Off first serves, Stuff -
- sends down ace/service winner 11%, and rest of time…
- serve-volleys 53% of the time, winning 72%
- stays back 47% of time, winning 73%

So very good success behind first serve. Alcs returns it from well back position. Against serve-volleying, it’s a good ploy, given Stuff’s slowness. He’s not quick to get to net, or to move around once there. Nor is he a wall (he’s got 9 volleying UEs from 57 approaches - many of them unreturned serves) or destructive with the volley (successfully gets volleys to Alcs’ BH, but where they can be reached without trouble, often right back at Alcs)

Funnily enough, best part of Struff’s volleying is to the powerful stuff to his feet. Makes a few good ones, and with authority, even dropping them for winners. Just 2 volleying FEs (also, couple OHs). Little clumsy on the regulation stuff, apt to miss and not place them well, but dealing with small number of bullet returns to feet

Alcs typically returns around net high, which looks a good way to go. Can count on a few volley misses and chances on the pass doing that. He usually tries to lob on follow-up. Odd choice, given Struff’s height plus his so-so regulation volleying.

Just 1 smash winner for Struff and he’s got 2 FEs (1 OH, 1 BHOH). Alcs with 14 BH FEs (most of them passes) to 8 FHs. Struff successful in getting volleys to the BH, Alcs not doing too well passing off it. Just the 1 BH pass winner (+ 1 return)

With so low an in-count early on, Struff second serve-volleys some too. Wins just 3/9 so doing
Otherwise, Stuff is apt to come in early on first serve points he stays back on. Same deal as with rest of volley-pass contest

Action shaping feature of match is Struff’s returning. He blasts returns, first or second serves. He’s got 4 winners, none of them passes and slams other, point-ending ones, or ones that put Alcs on defensive right away. Alcs responds by taking something off first serves to get more in (relative win for Stuff) and serving more to body (directs 17% there, plus others that are crampingly close)

 

[Waspsting]

If Stuff’s aggressive returning stifles Alcs’ serve, it comes at very high price of 37% unreturned serve. Is it worth it? It would be if he could confidently hold and 1 good return game would be enough to take sets

His service game - with low in-counts, not overly damaging serve and not promising net play doesn’t inspire confidence he can take holding regularly for granted, so perhaps the aggressive returning isn’t worth it?

Its best he can do, given liklihood of being ouplayed from baseline, only, he isn’t outplayed from the baseline

Ground UEs - Alcs 22, Struff 20
Neutral UEs - Alcs 12, Struff 14
Ground-to-ground winners - Alcs 9, Struff 8 (including 4 returns)

This is one of the messier parts of the match (its not the only one). The ground action is not good. Struff is slow, not particularly consistent or powerful or damaging. Looks a third rate baseliner (which would also explain his penchant for serve-volleying), and one might think Alcs would have his way with him

Alcs is quick, he has power but he’s sloppy with the errors too. Early on, he misses a bunch of commanding FHs (something between neutral, pressuring and attacking) after which he largely sticks to BH cc’ng to draw errors. Struff holds up, not looking convincing, a little off-balance at times - but stays as steady as Alcs

Seems to be a feature of Alcs’ play. He seem to have no idea how to move an opponent around. Struff’s movements are an invitation to. Its not Alcs’ way - firm cc shots, and test of consistency is. He himself isn’t a model of consistency. Takes it easy with drop shots too, usually a start feature of his game, and again, likely to be effective against slow opponent

That’s action. Struff often at net, serve-volleying and otherwise. Not convincing on the volley, but gets job done, with Alcs not great on the pass. And below par baseline action, with Struff uncomfortable but holding even with an error riddled, basic of style Alcs

Returning is key - Struff’s very aggressive to keep Alcs from getting on top of rallies, but at cost of a lot of missed returns. Alcs returning from well back, to get a lot of returns in play

Match Progression
Scraggy first set. Possibly nervous Stuff can’t buy a first serve and has double fault problems. Doens’t volley convincingly or move well either, but his big returns wreck havoc, leading to Alcs toning down his serve. Alcs is a little lucky to take the set - gaining his breaks through double faults as much as anything, while in all kinds of trouble on his own serve

Struff double faults twice in first game to get broken. He does make 1/2volleys first up both times he serve-volleys, though going onto lose 1 of the points to a lob

Struff launches into returns right away, and Alcs has to save break point to consolidate, ending with a couple of strong, unreturned serves, but is broken to love next time around. Struff sealing the break with a BH dtl return winner

Back to back deuce games goes Alcs’ way in middle of set. He holds a deuce game, again with unreturned serves putting him over (he has 4, including an ace). And then breaks in a 10 point game, with Struff down to second serve on last 6 of them. He double faults twice, including on break point

On serve out, Alcs finds himself down 0-40 on back of loose ground errors. Unreturned serves again make up main share of his coming away with the game (3 of them, all UEs), but there’s also a risky, but perfectly executed play of drop shotting Struff in and FH lobbing him for winner. Bad bounce related FH winner from mid-court puts an end to the set

More big returns gets Struff early break for 2-0 to start second set. His in-count remains low, and he takes to staying back more, while serving bigger and coming in early. Good move

2 very big service winners in Struff holding for 3-0. His big test comes next service game, which goes on for 22 points. Struff misses first serve on first 7 points and in all, but rectifies that with smaller serves to get 11 in from then on

It’s a scraggy game, but has its moments. Having missed a high BHV, Struff hits a bullet return to his feet for a BHV winner. He finally holds with a second volley, BHV winner after making a tough love first one

He’s got break point next game, brought up with a big FH cc return winner against first serve. Misses routine BH return on it before Alcs holds
Alcs has 15-30 with Struff serving for the set. An ace and a lovely, first ‘volley’ BH1/2V winner ends it

Third set is scraggy too and Struff serve-volleys less than at any point in match. And Alcs has better of things to greater extent too. Orchestrates the crowd in his favour some

Its Struff with the first chance in game 3, which is riddled with BH errors from both players. Raises a break point with a big return that he follows to net to knock away simple FHV winner. Blinks up BH error on it before Alcs holds

Pretty good game to get what turns out to be the sole break game after. Low FHV winner by Struff, a not-clean return pass winner by Alcs against a second serve. Alcs brings out the dusty drop shot for a BH winner to raise break point, on which Struff makes a not-easy BHV UE

No more alarms from Alcs, who holds his remaining 3 service games to love, with 8/12 of those points being unreturend serves. Struff meanwhile is in trouble and holds 12 and 8 point games, saving 2 break points in the former

Summing up, interesting match despite the tennis being messy and below par. Struff is slow of movement and unsteady in both his groundstrokes and volleys. He serve-volleys considerably behind first serve, but has low in-count and his serve isn’t too damaging either

On positive side, he returns with a lot of power that not only wins points, but keeps starting point of rallies even. At large cost of missing returns

Alcaraz adjusts to Struff’s big returning, but is just as loose off the ground. He moves better than his opponent and is more comfortable in playing his shots - which makes his being just as loose the more discredit worthy. He returns from well back, often running around to hit FHs. Does not pass particularly well against an opponent making play another shot because he's prone to missing regulation volleys

Big lot of unreturned serves Alcaraz scores is main difference between the players, which is a product of both Struff going for so much and his being unsteady of stock returning, which his movement has a hand in. Otherwise, things are close from the baseline, with both players not good and Struff volleying vs Alcaraz passing is also nothing to write home about

 

[InsuranceMan]

@Waspsting what do you think is key to their match up tomorrow?

 

[Waspsting]

@Waspsting what do you think is key to their match up tomorrow?

Probably Stuff's serve. I don't know anything about his game, other than watching this match

He's big, he's slow, his groundies aren't great, his volleys aren't great. What does that leave him?

Serves good. Should get at least good lot of first serves in, if not be devastating with it. That should get him through to hold regularly with some luck. Good serve or not, Alcs quite capable of returning quite regularly - and then there's possiblity of Stuff missing enough volleys to break himself

Poor job by Alcs not to have his way with him from baseline, helped by Struff's big returns keeping Alcs initiative to minimum in this final
Wouldn't expect that to happen too often

Going on this match alone, I suspect Struff just doesn't have it in him to volley or play from baseline very well. But serve and return... that he can pull off as well as or better than this match