Match Stats/Report - Chang vs Haarhuis, Indian Wells final, 1996

[Waspsting]

Michael Chang beat Paul Haarhuis 7-5, 6-1, 6-1 in the Indian Wells final, 1996 on hard court

Chang had recently been runner-up at the Australian Open. This was his second title at the event and he would go onto defend it the following year. Haarhuis was unseeded, this would be his only Masters final and he beat Pete Sampras and Goran Ivanisevic among others en route to the final

Chang won 97 points, Haarhuis 62

Serve Stats
Chang...
- 1st serve percentage (40/76) 53%
- 1st serve points won (38/40) 95%
- 2nd serve points won (14/36) 39%
- Aces 4
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/76) 22%

Haarhuis...
- 1st serve percentage (49/83) 59%
- 1st serve points won (27/49) 55%
- 2nd serve points won (11/34) 32%
- Aces 1, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/83) 17%

Serve Patterns
Chang served...
- to FH 53%
- to BH 45%
- to Body 1%

Haarhuis served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 60%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Chang made...
- 69 (28 FH, 41 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (1 FH, 2 BH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (7 FH, 2 BH)
- 3 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (69/83) 83%

Haarhuis made...
- 56 (35 FH, 21 BH), including 6 runaround FHs & 5 return-approaches
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (5 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (4 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (56/73) 77%

Break Points
Chang 8/13 (9 games)
Haarhuis 2/7 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Chang 28 (15 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Haarhuis 10 (4 FH, 2 BH, 4 FHV)

Chang FHs - 3 cc (2 passes), 2 dtl passes (1 return), 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 4 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 at net), 1 inside-in/cc 'pass' (with opponent behind service line), 1longline/down-the-middle, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 6 cc (3 passes), 2 dtl (1 return, 1 pass), 1 inside-out return (a whiff), 1 net chord dribbler

- the OH was on the bounce

Haarhuis' FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl, 1 longline
- BHs - 1 dtl, 1 lob (possibly not clean, a 'whiffed' OH on the bounce from the baseline from opponent)

- 2 from return-approach points, both FHVs
- 1 other FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Chang 35
- 21 Unforced (10 FH, 11 BH)
- 14 Forced (9 FH, 5 BH)... with 1 FH at net (pass attempt) & 1 FH running-down-drop-shot (non-net)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.8

Haarhuis 52
- 38 Unforced (23 FH, 12 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
- 14 Forced (9 FH, 3 BH, 2 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.8

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Chang was 8/10 (80%) at net, with...
- 2/3 (67%) forced back

Haarhuis was...
- 14/30 (47%) at net, including...
- 2/9 (22%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 4/5 (80%) return-approaching
- 0/1 retreated

Match Report
Easy win for Chang and Haarhuis is terrible at almost everything. The tightest contest going on is which aspect of the losers game is the worst. Probably the FH, but movement and reactions aren’t far behind. Court is slow

It’s a weird match, statistically
First serve in - Chang 53%, Haar 59%
First serve won - Chang 95%, Haar 55%
Second serve won - Chang 39%, Haar 32%

Looks like Chang’s some kind of serve-bot, doesn’t it? He loses just 2 first serve points in match and finishes match on unbroken run of 31 straight first serve points won @Moose Malloy
Rest of figures are in line with slow court tennis

He’s not getting creamed on second serve points either and wins normal 13/24 for 2 sets, but funnily wins just 1/12 in the last. Haar aggressively returns second serves in that last stretch and is among other things 4/5 return approaching. Hard hit, return-approaches, not chip-charges

Just 4 aces or 10% off first serves for Chang. And small 22% unreturned, with 8/13 return errors drawn being UEs though most are against first serves. Small number of draw-weak-return & finish point at once, and majority of first serve rally points are much like all the other serve types in the match. Chang just happens to win virtually all of them, which obviously, he doesn’t for the others

Pretty weird. It happens. Mats Wilander had serve-bot numbers in the ‘82 French Open final is one example

Worth mentioning is that big serving was normal for Chang in this period (so was low in counts). In recent Australian Open final and at US Open final later in the year, his first serve outputs were on par with Boris Becker and Pete Sampras, and he had a similar high number of consecutive points won in the latter

But no, he’s not serving that big here. Its too slow to be worth it, and his in count would probably be in mid 40% territory if he tried. “Not a bad serve” is better description than “good serve” for his showing, and the aces and freebies are in line with that
Winning 95% points is not

That aside, Haarhuis is horrendous. Misses rountine groundies early in rallies. Misses if rallies go on. Made uncomfy by even slightly more than routine ball (and prone to giving up errors to them, of course). Gives up weak balls (if rally goes on for awhile, he’ll give it up, if he’s a tad pressured, he’ll give it up). Reactions and movements seem to just go off regularly, and he’s slow to get to what should be routine balls. Mishits aplenty

He’s so bad that it becomes difficult to stat him. Chang hits routine shot, Haar gets into a thorough tangle against it to give up error. Is that a UE or an FE? Chang’s shot is a UE drawing one, but Haar’s miss looks like an FE

And he’s about as bad on the run or even move as anyone I’ve seen. Running shots aren’t easy, but one expects to make some percentage of them. With Haar, it reaches a stage where every time he doesn’t miss a shot on the move (not really a running shot), it comes as surprise

FHs chief offender and has match high 23 UEs (Chang has 21 total, Haar 15 non-FHs), joint match high 9 FEs with Chang’s FH. 5 of Chang’s are passes, only 1 of Haar’s is - and they’re about as mild as FEs can be
Smart to come to net some, given how badly outmatched he is from baseline. But volleys with at most average force (below average is fairer take), and Chang’s good on the pass. Wins just 47% net points

Chang not just resting on laurels of Haar’s poorness and dashes down 28 winners for 21 UEs. Handsome yield. The substandard opposition is more pertinent to how match goes though

Serve & Return
Average serving from both, Chang a little heftier. Made to look more so for Haar being slower in moving for returns.

First serve ace/service winner rate - Chang 10%, Haar 4%
So serve not a devastating weapon for either player - despite anomaly of Chang winning 95% first serve points - but it is a guard against getting beat-up

Second serve points won - Chang 39%, Haar 32%, to go with…
First serve points won - Chang 95%, Haar 55%

Chang’s possibly world record gap is anomaly, but clearly, Haar needs a first serve, average and not damaging as it is, to keep from getting wrecked. He’s held 5 times, been broken 8. Serving at 59%, that’s actually surprisingly ‘high’ first serve points won

Chang with some typical, very early, attacking second returns. And vastly better court player. Accounts for his success on second return points
Haar’s average first serve at least, isn’t attackable (generally, that’d be a good thing for a second serve, not a first)

As in play, Haar’s FH is all kinds of off on the return (that’s weird sentence). Slightly wide to FH, and he’s apt to miss. Relatively slow to get to such returns too. Someone like Chang himself, faced with such serves would be in position to make it utterly routine

9/13 of Haar’s return errors are FHs, with Chang directing 53% serves that way. Its not surprise element that’s causing it
Surprise element probably has a hand in 9/12 of Chang’s return errors being FHs, with Haar only serving there 36% of time

Clearly, Chang much, much more consistent on the BH return. It doesn’t matter much when he’s returning at 83%, but that’s a wonky enough distribution that Haar would probably have done better to serve more to FH

 

[Waspsting]

Bigger factor still still is just getting used to things. Chang misses 6 returns in first 3 return games of match, so just 6 after it
After 3 return games, his return rate is 9/15 or 60%
Rest of match, 60/68 or 88%

Late in match, Haar takes to pounding second returns and coming in when he can after doing so. Chang wins just 1/12 second serve points in the last set

Which raises obvious question of whether he should have been doing it earlier

No obvious reason for him to have done so
First set is close, and Haar’s up a break for much of it. Chang only levels at 4-4
Second set is gone in a blink of an eye (there are 34 points in it or 4.86 per game, as opposed to 53 in the third) so not not much time to adjust. He’s lost it almost before there’s time to feel a need for adjustment

Good job by Haar to turn to aggressive second returning when he does and not a blackmark for not doing so earlier

Play - Baseline (& Net)
At start, contest of dual winged, low end of hard hitting exchanges. Normal, good tennis, two players well matched. Haar in fact, better

At best position, Haar leads 4-2, 0-40 3 break points
Haar’s game falls off after that, and contest becomes mismatch. Like what a pro playing a decent park player might look like

Normal, still decent hitting, rallies. After 2-3 shots, Haar misses routine shot
Or mishits an error
Or just gives up a very weak, short ball
Or just fails to move properly, catches ball so late it looks like a very difficult shot he’s faced with - either makes an error, or gives up weak ball

He’s particularly vulnerable on the FH. Stationary or on move. Seems to miss every FH on the move, let alone run. Again, with intermittent, starting late for the ball shots thrown in to make it look harder still. He whiffs a ball on the run. Chang has an even more ridiculous whiff, but his is out-of-the-blue. Way Haar plays, whiff is almost expected, if anythings, it’s a surprise he doesn’t whiff more often

In baseline rallies -
- Winners - Chang 14 (8 FH, 6 BH), Haar 6 (4 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV)
- Errors forced - Chang 10, Haar 4
- UEs - Chang 21 (10 FH, 11 BH), Haar 35 (23 FH, 12 BH)

Sizable advantages for Chang in all areas. Much of it product of Haar popping up weak balls without being pressured, which doesn’t come through in these numbers

Chang not content to just sit back and bleed Haar out, hence the high winners and errors forced
Haar has 8 FH FEs. Pretty mild, as FEs go. Anytime he’s on the move on that side, he’s liable to miss

BH UEs are near equal. Haar’s not in control of action enough to implement more BH rallies if he wanted, but there’s something he’s not too far behing. Chang’s winner advantage is a little inflated there too - 1 is a net chord dribbler, another is a Haar whiff, so realisitcally, 4 BH winners in baseline rallies from Chang (including 1 return), just the 1 from Chang

Way baseline action goes, it’d be dumb of Haar not to come to net more. He tries but wins just 47% of those points

Haar serve-volleys 9 times, or 19% off first serves. Wins just 2 of those points. Average serve + Chang’s cozy, healthy returning off it + average volley quality + Chang passing well
Wins 8/16 rallying to net. Better than what he’s doing from baseline
Best of it comes right at end, when he hammers second returns and follows to net. Wins 4/5 on the play

Average quality volleying from Haar of placement and punch. Chang quick to reach ball and excellent at finding the pass

On the volley, Haar has just 3 winners (excluding a non-net one), 3 UEs, 2 FEs
He manages to force 10 passing errors, while Chang has 9 regular winners + 1 return

Haar’s not particularly good on volley, but more credit to Chang’s passing for the overall outcome than anything else. Some wonderful, wrong footing, well angled passing winners from him

Chang doesn’t need to come in much and doesn’t. He's 8/10 at net

Match Progression
Solid tennis to start
Both players have some trouble returning slightly wide serves. Baseline rallies are low end of hard-hitting. Both players back-away some to hit pressuring FH inside-outs. Chang sometimes following up with attacking FH inside-in

Haar breaks to love to move ahead 2-1, with Chang making a couple of attacking UEs (1 of each wing) to end the game

Double fault, BH dtl winner attempt miss and a good look passing error sets Chang down 0-40 at 2-4. He comes through to hold mostly by commanding action

That proves the turning point

Chang breaks to 15 to level at 4-4 right after, holds to 15 after that and has 2 break/set points after that, with Haar having to use net and fire his best serve of the match to hold on. Chang misses routine first return on first break point, and Haar nicely comes to net behind a good third ball BH cc to save the second

Haar’s broken next go around. Starts game missing third ball FH dtl winner attempt
Couple points later, whiffs a shot on the move
Comes to net couple times, gets passed both times (FH cc and BH dtl)
Eventually, misses third ball FH inside-out to give up the set

Second set is awful from Haar. Errors and mishits and bad placed volleys and missed return and missing everything on the run and moving late and/or badly

6-1 in a jiffy. Chang wins 26 points, Haar 8
6-1 in less of a jiffy for third set. Chang wins 32 points, Haar 21

Still playing badly from baseline, Haar looks to come in more often and his return-approaches are successful. Chang wins just 1/12 second serve points (along with 13/13 first serve ones)

Down 0-3 and 2 breaks, Haar gets on board in a game of FH UEs, that he finishes with a couple of net points (pounded return-approach and winning an open court rally)

He’s broken again right after, with but does put Chang through the hoop game after that
Game lasts 10 points, and Chang saves 2 break points to hold
Interesting FH inside-in drop shot winner by Chang to start the game. Doesn’t play another shot anything like it in the match
Even more interesting and rare point after that, with Chang whiffing a smash on the bounce from the baseline
Haar scores with a couple more return-approaches, but Chang commandingly takes the game to reach 5-1

Last game takes 10 points, with the last 2 points being serve-volley points. They end with Chang knocking away BH cc winner and Haar missing a dropping, but well covered, medium paced return-pass

Summing up, Chang plays well and Haarhuis plays terribly to make up one sided match. More the latter

The kinds of mistakes and flaws Haarhuis exhibits - his movement, his reactions, mishits, consistency, shot-tolerance - is almost embarrassing. After initially holding his own from the back, he’s about 2 categories behind Chang from the baseline. Good idea to come to net, but his volleys aren’t great either - and Chang is very good on the pass

Chang quite proactive in putting outmatched opponent down hard (as opposed to sitting back and letting him bleed to death) - quite hard hitting, attacking by going wide, looking for finishing shots from back - so not a bad watch, despite below par opposition

 

[Slingshot]

38/40 first serve points won...good lord.

 

[Waspsting]

38/40 first serve points won...good lord.

... and the funny thing about it is, if I weren't statting the match, I wouldn't have noticed
In fact, I doubt anyone watching the match and not keeping a very particular eye on stats would

Usually with stuff like this, its kind of obvious. Boris Becker, or Goran or a server of that calibre bombing down first serves
Aces. Service Winners. Hard forced return errors. Easy third ball putaways
And one picks up that guy is winning virtually every first serve point

Here?
The odd unreturned serve (probably marked a UE), the odd third ball winner. Mostly medium lenght baseline rallies, with Chang not in unduly commanding position
Similar kinds of rallies on second serve points spersed in, and those are being shared
Wouldn't think he'd win that many points, with above going on

Andy Murray had a run of winning 43/44 first serve points in '13 Aus final. That was another one I probably wouldn't have noticed, if I weren't statting the match