Match Stats/Report - del Potro vs Federer, US Open final, 2009

W

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Juan Martin del Potro beat Roger Federer 3-6, 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 in the US Open final, 2009 on hard court

del Potro was 20 years old and playing in his first Slam final. Federer had won French Open and Wimbledon earlier in the year, would go onto win the next Australian Open and had won the previous 5 US Opens

del Potro won 180 points, Federer 172

Serve Stats
del Potro...
- 1st serve percentage (110/171) 64%
- 1st serve points won (79/110) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (35/61) 57%
- Aces 10 (2 not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (38/171) 22%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (91/181) 50%
- 1st serve points won (65/91) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (50/90) 56%
- Aces 14 (1 not clean), Service Winners 1 (a second serve)
- Double Faults 11
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (47/181) 26%

Serve Pattern
del Potro served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 12%

Federer served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 44%
- to Body 17%

Return Stats
del Potro made...
- 123 (49 FH, 74 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 32 Errors, comprising...
- 13 Unforced (7 FH, 6 BH)
- 19 Forced (13 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (123/170) 72%

Federer made...
- 127 (37 FH, 90 BH), including 4 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH), a runaround FH
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (5 FH, 2 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 20 Forced (12 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (127/165) 77%

Break Points
del Potro 5/15 (9 games)
Federer 5/22 (11 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
del Potro 39 (31 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 3 OH)
Federer 36 (17 FH, 7 BH, 3 FHV, 4 BHV, 5 OH)

del Potro's FHs - 9 cc (1 not clean, 1 return, 2 passes), 10 dtl (4 passes - 1 at net, 1 other at net), 7 inside-out (1 pass), 4 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 longline/cc
- BHs - 1 cc at net and 2 dtl (1 pass)

- 1 OH was on the bounce

Federer's FHs - 4 cc (1 runaround return, 1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl, 5 inside-out, 4 inside-in, 1 drop shot and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl and 1 longline at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley FHV

- 3 OHs on the bounce and 1 other OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
del Potro 83
- 59 Unforced (44 FH, 13 BH, 2 OH)
- 24 Forced (7 FH, 15 BH, 2 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.4

Federer 92
- 61 Unforced (33 FH, 28 BH)
- 31 Forced (16 FH, 12 BH, 2 FHV, 1 Over-the-Shoulder)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
del Potro was 16/22 (73%) at net

Federer was...
- 29/43 (67%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/3 (33%) forced back/retreated

Match Report
A very interesting and well played match where the returning is better than the serving and play is predominantly a FH-FH shoot-out on a quick court. Who has the advantage fluctuates over the match and both players have their chances. Well before the end, the action is on del Potro's racquet and he plays his very best in last two sets. On whole, he has better off play off both wings and gains a well deserved win

The script of play is Federer's. He plays to Delpo's FH. All match. That plan plays out in 3 parts, with Delpo's standard much more the determinant of result

Part 1 - Start to near End of 2nd set - Fed dominating
Both players have low first serve in counts in first set and Federer leads play with FH cc's. The plan seems to be to break down Delpo's FH. And it works

Fed lashes his own FHs, while moving around on twinkling feet. He goes cc to draw errors from Delpo FH - he goes hard, beat-down if not point endingly strong - or moves around to go for the inside-out winner. And comes to net after taking charge of points to finish with drop volleys

Delpo's court positioning is a bit too far back (even allowing for Fed pushing him there some), his movements are clumsy and his FH out gunned and awkward (somewhat due to Fed pressuring it with hard hit shots).

Delpo's regularly in trouble on serve - he serves 8.75 points per game to Fed's 5.4 in first set - while Fed cruises. Fed has 13 winners, 5 UEs for the set while Delpo gives up 10 UEs (9 FHs) as Fed very comfortably takes the set

Not too much changes in second set. Fed goes up a break early and continues to threaten on return. Delpo is able to get into return games a bit more, but not much. Play continues FH-FH... Fed eases back on lashing FHs, Delpo makes fewer errors, but on whole, Fed retains sizable advantage. And Fed steps up to serve for the set at 5-4

Part 2 - End of 2nd set to middle of 4th - Play even
Delpo breaks Fed against run of play. Up 30-0 and seemingly in control, Fed loses next 4 points - the last 3 while at net

From 30-15 up, he brings Delpo in with a drop shot, which ends with Fed forced back from net. Then Delpo pulls out back-to-back FH dtl pass winners - both highly improbable shots, both against excellent volleys. Upto this point, Fed had been winning all such points routinely and Delpo hadn't looked anything like capable of pulling out shots like this

Set goes to tiebreak. There's just one mini-break... a good Delpo return leaves Fed with a third ball he'd have to play proactively to retain initiative off point of, and he misses trying. 4 superb winners from Delpo - another improbable FH cc pass and 3 third ball groundstrokes. On set point, he plays a Feder-ish back-away FH inside-out into corner for the winner

Third and half of fourth set sees equal play, still along FH-FH lines. Delpo's hitting FHs hard enough that Fed stops coming to net (probably wisely). The pair trade breaks at 3-3 and third set ends with a terrible game from Delpo - he misses an easy OH and double faults twice from 30-30

Fourth set remains on serve but playing dynamics start changing to...

Part 3
Delpo dominates the FH rallies. He starts hammering them, far more powerfully than Federer. Even regulation placed FHs are powerful enough to be near forceful and certainly, highly pressuring. He misses going so hard at the ball, but more than makes up for it when he makes his shots

Fed for his part, keeps playing to Delpo's FH. Its baiting play, tempting the other player to go for a lot and make errors trying... not something the generally proactive Fed does often. He does it with serves to Delpo's FH too

Play remains about even, but now its virtually all on Delpo's racquet. Fed does go for the odd attacking shot from regulation position (or 'regulation minus position'... Delpo's hitting is off both sides is exceptional), usually missing. Against the hitting he's up against, its low percentage - and doesn't pay. Fed's movement drops a touch too, and he rarely gives up errors to balls he hasn't got into proper position for. Delpo takes to blasting returns - off both sides, but particularly the FH - against even first serves, and Fed's seconds remains typically good (as in, at least hard to attack)

Delpo saves 3 break points across 2 games early in 4th set with swatting third ball FH winners - 2 of them set up by good serves. Fed has to save 2 serving at 5-5, by which time he's clearly the reactive player.

Fed opens tiebreak with a double fault. There are no other mini-breaks. Rallies develop on last 2 points (both on Delpo's serve), with Fed missing FHs on both

5th set is comfortable for Delpo as he continues zoning calibre hitting. He breaks to go up 2-0 with a couple of FH winners (including his sole return winner), saves a break point to consolidate, remains in control of play and breaks again to finish with a couple of regulation BH misses by Fed proving costly

Fed's strategy - and alternatives?
In hindsight, continuously playing to del Potro's FH seems like a daft idea. Was it?

It works like a charm for almost all of 2 sets, with Delpo all at sea. Commentators keeps talking about Delpo's BH being his stronger side (more on that later) and how he'd thrashed Rafael Nadal in the semi-final blasting BHs. There's nothing in first sets to suggest Delpo could pull off the 2 stunning FH passes that get him the break back late in the set - let alone the remarkable fireworks display that comes later in the match. And Federer had been firing with the FH up to that point too
 
Not sure when exactly Delpo's FH gained its reputation for being the lethal shot it has. It seems bizarre that it all started with this match. Going by commentary and Fed's play, it might have. The two had played a 5 set match at the French Open earlier in the year, so its not as if Fed was unfamiliar with Delpo's game. But he chooses to keep playing to FH. Would he - the most proactive, 'match-is-always-on-my-racquet' of players do that if he knew what Delpo's FH was capable of?

He does so to the extent that it almost seems like he's afraid of going to the BH. When Fed approaches of a FH dtl late in the match, it stands out because he'd barely played a longline FH all match

In general, Fed's lines of attacks are
- big serving (significantly based on wide placement) to get cheap points and set up third ball kill shots
- FH shot making to finish points
- occasionally coming to net to finish points

He's not a big 'breakdown an opponents FH/BH' guy or a 'move-opponent-around'

Delpo's movements are often sluggish and footwork imprecise enough that moving him around suggests itself as a way to play him. Not Federer's forte - and he doesn't try

He utilizes net play for first part of the match. Largely drops it as Delpo starts hitting more cleanly. Wisely... Delpo's power off both sides doesn't encourage coming to net

In last part of match, Fed continues playing to Delpo's FH though he's hugely outgunned. Its a very un-Federer-like strategy... effectively, he's counting on Delpo missing more than he makes blasting the ball

Its likely Fed didn't think Delpo's FH could do the kind of damage it does. He doesn't change tacks when the shot starts firing either

Serve & Return
Excellent returning from both players is the backbone of the match. On this court and with these servers, I'd expect 30-40% unreturned rates. In fact, Delpo has 22% and Fed 4 points higher... that's primarily due to great returning from both. Fed also doesn't serve particularly well

Struggling to return good first serves, Delpo takes to falling back to get a better look at the return. Its a good move. Later in match, he also starts blasting returns regularly - first and seconds and off both sides. Very, very good stuff

Still, there's plenty of room for better serving from Federer. He's only got 50% first serves in. Early on, it doesn't matter much because he outplays Delpo in rallies. Later, when points are hard to come by and rallies are in Delpo's hands... the lack of cheap points are harder felt

Some unusual serving tactics from Fed too. Note the 17% serves to body. That's probably the highest I've seen from him. In general, he rarely goes for body serves and prefers wide, court opening ones. Its not a bad ploy with Delpo struggling to get out of the way of the serves and body serves are among Fed's most successful

Fed draws 20 FH errors (7 UEs, 13 FEs) as opposed to 12 BHs (6 UEs, 6 FEs) despite serving 39% to FH and 44% to BH. That's an extension (or to be more accurate, the starting point) of 'baiting' Delpo's FH. Delpo takes to blasting FH returns and anything he connects with tends to come back powerfully. The cost are the errors. Again, its not like Fed to gamble on his opponent's attack failing... generally, he likes to do the attacking himself. Especially with the serve

Delpo gets much larger 64% first serves in and his biggest serves are a lot bigger than Fed's. He saves his bigger serves for when he needs them or as surprises (often missing) but serves strongly enough. Very good from Fed to return at 77% against it

Delpo's second serve in particular stands out for quality. Just short of weapon-strength second serving, certainly very difficult to attack and not easy to neutralize even. Fed puts them in play much like the firsts. Running around to hit FHs would be very difficult against such serves

Fed, like Delpo, has disproportionately high number of FH errors (15, discounting 2 runaround attempts to 12 BHs - including the 2 runaround FHs), despite Delpo serving 27% to FH and 62% to BH. Unlike Delpo, there's no particularly FH aggression in Fed's FH returns... its just loose compared to the BH

Fed's second serve is good also, but Delpo pounds them. It contributes to high 11 double faults and Delpo's 13 UEs (he has 19 FEs). Much like play - the damage he does is worth the errors

Quite a bit going on in serve-return complex. On the serve -
Delpo serves well, particularly the second serves behind which he retains initiative off points. There's room for improvement in Fed's serving and his strategy is questionable. He seems to forego wide serving to tempt Delpo to miss going for a lot on the return. And serves a fair bit to the body, which is unusual for him, with success capitilizing on Delpo's below par movement

On the return -

- Delpo - falling back to get more first serve returns back and blasting second serve returns against quality opposition
- Federer - very good consistency against a good serve. Not much attacking returning

Play - FHs, BHs & Net
Match long stats indicate just how FH centered play is

For del Potro, 31/39 winners and 44/59 UEs are FHs. Initially its sloppy and overwhelmed by Federer's FH cc's. By the end, its doubly overpowering

31 winners to 44 UEs isn't outstanding, but the shot also forces bulk of Fed's high 31 FEs. The ratio is also sharply divided by parts of match. Initially, its broken down and somewhat sloppy. By end, it commands all play. Despite all the winner, Delpo's UEFI is a moderate 46.4 with 32/59 errors being neutral shots. Part of the reason is his 'neutral' shot is virtually an attacking shot. Even placed in regulation position, its powerful enough to be near forceful, particularly in last part of match

There's no shortage of variety to it. baseline-to-baseline, his winners include 6 cc, 6 inside-out, 5 dtl and 3 inside-in. The cc figure is particularly impressive (Federer has 2)... when you can hit winners from the most basic shot, you're probably zoning. He doesn't need a short or weak ball either... just unloads on a regulation ball and that's the point

While Delpo's FH steals the show, the BH is a quite star itself. He hits hard BH cc's, without going for point ending shots, is very consistent and again, powerful of shot. Delpo's BH cc'ng in the match is stronger than a good Andre Agassi or Novak Djokovic showing. On the UE front, he outdoes Federer by a huge 13-28 margin. Somewhat bringing home the difficulty Fed faces in approaching play. Trading BHs with Delpo isn't likely to end well for Fed. Having such an advantage on BH consistency (and power) gives him license to go all in on the other wing

On BH side of things, Fed is outsteadied and outhit. His BH also gives up regulation errors not infrequently, which is normal enough for him. He rarely slices and when he does, Delpo is least bothered. Just slices back or biffs the ball back slightly less hard, but hard enough to retain hitting advantage

Just 3 BH winners from Delpo - and 1 is a putaway ball at net - but for hitting + consistency, the BH is a star in its own right

There's little in it between the two - Delpo the more powerful and aggressive, Federer the slightly steadier
- Winners - Delpo +3
- UEs - Delpo -2 (as in Delpo has fewer)

... biggest difference comes through in FEs, with Delpo outgunning Fed 31-24. Much of Delpo's would be passing attempts while most of Fed's are baseline-to-baseline points

Some good defence from Fed, as he scrambles to put powerful balls in play. 39/61 UEs are neutral shots and his UEFI is just 45.7, which is low particularly for him. That's a sign of being beaten down and being reactive partner in play, not passivity. With Delpo's large power advantage, orchestrating attacks is very difficult, and Fed's pushed to play a reactive game. Early on, he plays his usual aggressive game with FH inside-outs coupled with strong FH cc's and coming to net to finish. The BH at times is loose. Fed's significant advantage in movement - he's good, Delpo's average at best - goes someway to mitigate his hitting disadvantage

Summing up, excellent and dramatic match, like a Rocky movie. Match starts with the established champion Federer, who'd won the last 2 Slams and was going for 6th in a row at this event, dancing about, swatting FHs, coming to net and overwhelming the 20 year old, maiden Slam finalist del Potro. By the end, Del Potro's is hammering everything with extreme power and Federer's left to put balls in play and hope he misses

Solid serving from Delpo, while Fed's a bit off in his consistency on the first shot, while unusually (and successfully) serving close to the returner
Excellent returning from both - Delpo falling back to better cope with strong first serves and blasting good second serves, Fed very consistent in dealing with a good serve
Baseline play is highly biased towards FH based rallies by Federer's choice. Initially, he's able to breakdown Delpo's FH, which is loose and poorly supported by slow movement. As match wears on, Delpo hits some incredibly powerful FHs to overwhelm Federer. His BH, nowhere near as flashy, is also very impressive in its hitting and consistency

Match is close enough that result could go either way. The final outcome is most appropriate, with del Potro being the more commanding, proactive player after finding his range - and reaching a level of raw power hitting as high as imaginable

Stats for the semi between Federer and Novak Djokovic - (6) Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Djokovic, US Open semi-final, 2009 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
 
I remember watching this (postponed match I think , bc of the rain delay? ) and getting pissed off by the result lol.
In the past Fed has claimed a few times that this was the only slam that felt like it really got away from him , that he would like to have a do over. Wonder what he'd have changed in a second time since his pattern of play (fh to fh madness) hasn't changed that much against Delpo.
 
Wow, I've never seen this take on the Federer tactic of going at Delpo's FH! Most usually just say it was young Fed's ego (which is still very possible... he did seem to have a chip on his shoulder about being the "flashy big weapons alpha" on the court), but I had no idea how much the Del Potro BH was being praised. Seems less like ego and maybe that Federer just decided after the first couple sets to let Delpo live or die by his forehand. And considering he was a 20 year old in his first slam final, it's pretty exceptional that Delpo ended up "living" by his forehand, so to speak. Most other players would tighten up as the match goes on, which would've made Fed's strategy look a lot better.

Considering how well Del Potro did from 2013-2018 while slicing every backhand after the wrist injury, and looking at how good his backhand was here, man it feels like he could've been a serious beast. Could've been like a Jannik Sinner with a bigger forehand but worse movement. Could be a 5-7 slam guy even in the big 4 era. I'd imagine Nadal in particular on hard courts/grass would've had a tough time figuring him out.

Really insightful report here. Makes me want to go watch the match right now lol
 
7thKingSlam said:
Wow, I've never seen this take on the Federer tactic of going at Delpo's FH! Most usually just say it was young Fed's ego (which is still very possible... he did seem to have a chip on his shoulder about being the "flashy big weapons alpha" on the court), but I had no idea how much the Del Potro BH was being praised. Seems less like ego and maybe that Federer just decided after the first couple sets to let Delpo live or die by his forehand. And considering he was a 20 year old in his first slam final, it's pretty exceptional that Delpo ended up "living" by his forehand,
Click to expand...

Its tricky to assess without knowing exactly what Fed knew about Delpo's FH capabilites
First couple sets, Fed's just whipping Delpo away FH-FH. What he likes to do in general, what he's most capable of doing to close to everyone
No great brainwork in any of this
That changes as match goes on and Delpo dials upto over-whelming with his own FH. That's where some adjustments would be handy (maybe even far as necessary)

What does he adjust to? Playing BH cc based rallies? BH UEs read Delpo 13, Fed 28 with Delpo hitting substantially better (meaning, chances to attack coming out of those rallies are in his favour, on top of the consistency contest)

Relative shortcoming in Fed's game is inability to move opponents around. Against the tall guys, he jerks them forward and back a bit with slices, but not much moving them side to side. Doesn't do the slice thing here either. From memory, he did a good deal of it in their Madrid match earlier in year to good effect, some of it at the French

Coming to net to the BH is possiblity. Fed tended to be reluctant to turn to net play when Plan A wasn't going too well around this period, but coming in from commanding FH play had worked well for him early in match. Probably woudn't be able to come in 'commandingly' from BH rallying. Better option than trading FHs with monstor level Delpo upped his hitting too?

For all the finer points of play, there's a much simpler way of looking at match

Fed serving 50% for match is poor. Its worse than the '09 Aus final where you were noting it to be crucial factor
He gets a few more freebies in, he wins most likely

Would be nice to have insurance of being able to outplay Delpo in rallies or a have a blueprint of how to do that at least, but wouldn't be so necessary with even a par first serve percentage

7thKingSlam said:
Considering how well Del Potro did from 2013-2018 while slicing every backhand after the wrist injury, and looking at how good his backhand was here, man it feels like he could've been a serious beast. Could've been like a Jannik Sinner with a bigger forehand but worse movement. Could be a 5-7 slam guy even in the big 4 era. I'd imagine Nadal in particular on hard courts/grass would've had a tough time figuring him out.
Click to expand...

Sinner with a bigger FH, worse movement... that's a good way of looking at Delpo
I'll add he always add a poor serve for his height. I've always got the sense he was a bit lazy, and that has injuries have covered it up

Nadal vs a Delpo with the kind of BH he has in this match would be a fun show
Unlike Fed, Nadal's an expert at moving opponent side to side
And if Delpo doesn't feel like playing along, he can turn that on its head with a big FH any given ball
 
Fed could have had a NCYGS if he didnt keep feeding delpos FH.

Should have taken a leaf out of nadals book and spammed Delpos backhand and stretch him out wide once a shorter BH came back.
 
Waspsting said:
Its tricky to assess without knowing exactly what Fed knew about Delpo's FH capabilites
First couple sets, Fed's just whipping Delpo away FH-FH. What he likes to do in general, what he's most capable of doing to close to everyone
No great brainwork in any of this
That changes as match goes on and Delpo dials upto over-whelming with his own FH. That's where some adjustments would be handy (maybe even far as necessary)

What does he adjust to? Playing BH cc based rallies? BH UEs read Delpo 13, Fed 28 with Delpo hitting substantially better (meaning, chances to attack coming out of those rallies are in his favour, on top of the consistency contest)

Relative shortcoming in Fed's game is inability to move opponents around. Against the tall guys, he jerks them forward and back a bit with slices, but not much moving them side to side. Doesn't do the slice thing here either. From memory, he did a good deal of it in their Madrid match earlier in year to good effect, some of it at the French

Coming to net to the BH is possiblity. Fed tended to be reluctant to turn to net play when Plan A wasn't going too well around this period, but coming in from commanding FH play had worked well for him early in match. Probably woudn't be able to come in 'commandingly' from BH rallying. Better option than trading FHs with monstor level Delpo upped his hitting too?

For all the finer points of play, there's a much simpler way of looking at match

Fed serving 50% for match is poor. Its worse than the '09 Aus final where you were noting it to be crucial factor
He gets a few more freebies in, he wins most likely

Would be nice to have insurance of being able to outplay Delpo in rallies or a have a blueprint of how to do that at least, but wouldn't be so necessary with even a par first serve percentage



Sinner with a bigger FH, worse movement... that's a good way of looking at Delpo
I'll add he always add a poor serve for his height. I've always got the sense he was a bit lazy, and that has injuries have covered it up

Nadal vs a Delpo with the kind of BH he has in this match would be a fun show
Unlike Fed, Nadal's an expert at moving opponent side to side
And if Delpo doesn't feel like playing along, he can turn that on its head with a big FH any given ball
Click to expand...
This can not be right take at all.

Fed was pushed to five in Roland garros and could remain Roland garros free if delpo won then.

It's just old mans ego that kept him hitting to fh.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
This can not be right take at all.

Fed was pushed to five in Roland garros and could remain Roland garros free if delpo won then.

It's just old mans ego that kept him hitting to fh.
Click to expand...
You didn't answer Waspsting's question: What does Fed adjust to? Are the margins in backhand-to-backhand rallies better for Federer than forehand-to-forehand?

I would think the answer is obviously no. At least not as far as trading topspin groundies. I think Waspsting's analysis is bang-on. Fed could have tried to come into net or slice more. Delpo's not the greatest at dealing with slice. I don't know that it would have gotten a bunch more unforced errors, necessarily, but could have gotten some weaker, shorter balls (Fed used to eat people alive with the short cross-court slice, followed by a deep, loopy backhand down the line/longline, which often generated a short, weak ball from the backpedaling opponent). Could have tried to move Delpo around horizontally a bit more, give his cross-court groundies a bit more air, shorter, closer to the sidelines, etc. That's not really his game, but he can definitely widen the court a bit better than he did here.

But none of that means "avoid the forehand". And it's impossible to say, from the outside, how much of Fed's tactical errors here were down to arrogance and ego. I mean, come on, he was close to winning this thing in straights. Whatever he was doing was working. Delpo was playing catch-up the entire match until the fifth set, at which point Delpo's forehand was in such a groove it would have been hard to make the match about anything else.
 
tudwell said:
You didn't answer Waspsting's question: What does Fed adjust to? Are the margins in backhand-to-backhand rallies better for Federer than forehand-to-forehand?

I would think the answer is obviously no. At least not as far as trading topspin groundies. I think Waspsting's analysis is bang-on. Fed could have tried to come into net or slice more. Delpo's not the greatest at dealing with slice. I don't know that it would have gotten a bunch more unforced errors, necessarily, but could have gotten some weaker, shorter balls (Fed used to eat people alive with the short cross-court slice, followed by a deep, loopy backhand down the line/longline, which often generated a short, weak ball from the backpedaling opponent). Could have tried to move Delpo around horizontally a bit more, give his cross-court groundies a bit more air, shorter, closer to the sidelines, etc. That's not really his game, but he can definitely widen the court a bit better than he did here.

But none of that means "avoid the forehand". And it's impossible to say, from the outside, how much of Fed's tactical errors here were down to arrogance and ego. I mean, come on, he was close to winning this thing in straights. Whatever he was doing was working. Delpo was playing catch-up the entire match until the fifth set, at which point Delpo's forehand was in such a groove it would have been hard to make the match about anything else.
Click to expand...
No I have not read the entire paragraph. I am only countering to fed not knowing delpo's fh capability.

What you are saying is like what would you adjust to, sinners fh or bh and I would say definitely bh.

Djokovic today tries to get the fh dtl and does not by default engage into fh to fh cc in 2024. But Djokovic is old and is humbled by sinner. Fed was not humbled yet.
 
It’s funny how amazingly Fed served in the 2009 RG and W finals compared to how poorly he served in the AO and USO finals from that year. Night and day difference.
 
Third Serve said:
It’s funny how amazingly Fed served in the 2009 RG and W finals compared to how poorly he served in the AO and USO finals from that year. Night and day difference.
Click to expand...
Probably wins the Grand Slam if he has even average serving days at the AO and USO, to go along with his GOAT serving at the tower two.
 
NatF said:
He doesn't need both Wimbledon 2008 and AO 2009, don't be greedy :p
Click to expand...
It’s what made him so epic lol :D


1200px-Nadal_Australian_Open_2009_1.jpg


At least you have the satisfaction of Wimby 07 and knowing Rafa cried in the locker room ;)
 
Waspsting said:
Its tricky to assess without knowing exactly what Fed knew about Delpo's FH capabilites
First couple sets, Fed's just whipping Delpo away FH-FH. What he likes to do in general, what he's most capable of doing to close to everyone
No great brainwork in any of this
That changes as match goes on and Delpo dials upto over-whelming with his own FH. That's where some adjustments would be handy (maybe even far as necessary)

What does he adjust to? Playing BH cc based rallies? BH UEs read Delpo 13, Fed 28 with Delpo hitting substantially better (meaning, chances to attack coming out of those rallies are in his favour, on top of the consistency contest)

Relative shortcoming in Fed's game is inability to move opponents around. Against the tall guys, he jerks them forward and back a bit with slices, but not much moving them side to side. Doesn't do the slice thing here either. From memory, he did a good deal of it in their Madrid match earlier in year to good effect, some of it at the French

Coming to net to the BH is possiblity. Fed tended to be reluctant to turn to net play when Plan A wasn't going too well around this period, but coming in from commanding FH play had worked well for him early in match. Probably woudn't be able to come in 'commandingly' from BH rallying. Better option than trading FHs with monstor level Delpo upped his hitting too?

For all the finer points of play, there's a much simpler way of looking at match

Fed serving 50% for match is poor. Its worse than the '09 Aus final where you were noting it to be crucial factor
He gets a few more freebies in, he wins most likely

Would be nice to have insurance of being able to outplay Delpo in rallies or a have a blueprint of how to do that at least, but wouldn't be so necessary with even a par first serve percentage



Sinner with a bigger FH, worse movement... that's a good way of looking at Delpo
I'll add he always add a poor serve for his height. I've always got the sense he was a bit lazy, and that has injuries have covered it up

Nadal vs a Delpo with the kind of BH he has in this match would be a fun show
Unlike Fed, Nadal's an expert at moving opponent side to side
And if Delpo doesn't feel like playing along, he can turn that on its head with a big FH any given ball
Click to expand...
Ahead of their USO2017 matchup, Fed reflected on this final and said, “I left that match with a lot of regrets,” went on to say he had a lot of chances, and it’s a match he’d like to replay again. Also said he never felt Del Potro was clearly the better player until the 5th set.

It’s possible this was just a matter of losing a close match you had a lead in and wanting another shot, but I do wonder if he thinks tactically he messed up going to the forehand so much. Don’t quote me exactly on this, but in Federer: Twelve Final Days, I remember him saying he always wanted to show he had the biggest weapon on the court and liked to go at his opponent’s strength often in his young days… again, made me think of this match even though he didn’t say it directly.

But you’re right; Federer maybe was one of the best at moving his opponent vertically, not horizontally. Simple angles would confirm this; it’s harder to move an opponent with close court position vs Rafa using his spin and standing way back. Short slice + deep forehand is a good tactic vs an average/poor mover, but it’s not really a sustainable one. I definitely overlooked the first serve %. Fed was slightly outmatched from the baseline and the easy way to make up for that is serving just 5%ish better. Also looking back I probably overemphasized it a bit in the AO2009 final considering Fed literally won set 2 serving 37% in that match lol.

I’ve always gotten the sense Nadal vs Delpo could’ve been an incredible rivalry, and it already did deliver some greats. Wimbledon 2018 QF is one of my favorite matches. Think Andy Murray commentated that match and called the fifth set one of the best he’s seen. Indian Wells 2013 was also a lot of fun.
 
7thKingSlam said:
Ahead of their USO2017 matchup, Fed reflected on this final and said, “I left that match with a lot of regrets,” went on to say he had a lot of chances, and it’s a match he’d like to replay again. Also said he never felt Del Potro was clearly the better player until the 5th set.

It’s possible this was just a matter of losing a close match you had a lead in and wanting another shot, but I do wonder if he thinks tactically he messed up going to the forehand so much. Don’t quote me exactly on this, but in Federer: Twelve Final Days, I remember him saying he always wanted to show he had the biggest weapon on the court and liked to go at his opponent’s strength often in his young days… again, made me think of this match even though he didn’t say it directly.

But you’re right; Federer maybe was one of the best at moving his opponent vertically, not horizontally. Simple angles would confirm this; it’s harder to move an opponent with close court position vs Rafa using his spin and standing way back. Short slice + deep forehand is a good tactic vs an average/poor mover, but it’s not really a sustainable one. I definitely overlooked the first serve %. Fed was slightly outmatched from the baseline and the easy way to make up for that is serving just 5%ish better. Also looking back I probably overemphasized it a bit in the AO2009 final considering Fed literally won set 2 serving 37% in that match lol.

I’ve always gotten the sense Nadal vs Delpo could’ve been an incredible rivalry, and it already did deliver some greats. Wimbledon 2018 QF is one of my favorite matches. Think Andy Murray commentated that match and called the fifth set one of the best he’s seen. Indian Wells 2013 was also a lot of fun.
Click to expand...
Exactly. The ego of the guy.

He said verbatim I would want to test my weapons vs their weapons.

So that's his downfall vs delpo.
 
NatF said:
Fearless Fed, living and dying by his shotmaking.
Click to expand...
If fedrer was playing same fearless tennis in FO against nadal maybe he could have snatch 1 FO from nadal. 2017 fedrer was going all out for his shots. In 5th set down a break fedrer played like there is no tomorrow.
 
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