Match Stats/Report - del Potro vs Nadal, Shanghai semi-final, 2013

[Waspsting]

Juan Martin del Potro beat Rafael Nadal 6-2, 6-4 in the Shanghai semi-final, 2013 on hard court

del Potro would go on to lose the final to Novak Djokovic. Nadal had recently won the US Open and 5 masters titles in the year (Indian Wells, Madrid, Rome, Canada and Cincinnati), beating del Potro in the final at Indian Wells. Nadal had won the pair's last 4 meetings and this was del Potro's first wins in over 4 years

del Potro won 72 points, Nadal 60

Serve Stats
del Potro...
- 1st serve percentage (52/65) 80%
- 1st serve points won (34/52) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (9/13) 69%
- Aces 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/65) 26%

Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (47/67) 70%
- 1st serve points won (26/47) 55%
- 2nd serve points won (12/20) 60%
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (9/67) 13%

Serve Pattern
del Potro served...
- to FH 20%
- to BH 75%
- to Body 5%

Nadal served...
- to FH 22%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 22%

Return Stats
del Potro made...
- 54 (17 FH, 37 BH)
- 9 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- 4 Forced (4 BH)
- Return Rate (54/63) 86%

Nadal made...
- 48 (7 FH, 41 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (6 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (48/65) 74%

Break Points
del Potro 3/11 (4 games)
Nadal 0/6 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
del Potro 19 (15 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Nadal 13 (8 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH)

del Potro's FHs - 4 cc, 7 dtl, 3 inside-out and 1 inside-out/dtl
- BHs - 1 cc and 1 dtl

- the BHV was a pass

Nadal's FHs - 1 dtl, 4 inside-out (1 pass), 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc and 1 drop shot at net
- BH passes - 2 dtl and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
del Potro 38
- 31 Unforced (19 FH, 12 BH)
- 7 Forced (6 FH, 1 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.0

Nadal 32
- 17 Unforced (7 FH, 9 BH, 1 OH)
- 15 Forced (12 FH, 3 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
del Potro was...
- 7/11 (64%) at net, with...
- 1/1 retreated

Nadal was...
- 6/9 (67%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 0/1 retreated

Match Report
Great match and showing from del Potro as he clinically overpowers Nadal on a quick-ish court

While the FH shotmaking unsurprisingly takes the eye, Delpo is clinical in ticking the basics too, to leave Nadal clutching for straws to get into the match. Despite that and the routine 2 & 4 scoreline, Nadal finds a good few straws and match is competitive

Break points read Delpo 3/11 in 4 games, Nadal 0/6 in 5.

Other standout or interesting numbers include -
- Delpo serving at 80%
- Delpo returning at 86% rate
- Both players winning more second serve points (Delpo 69%, Nadal 60%) than first serve points (Delpo 65%, Nadal 55%)
- Delpo's 15 FH winners (Nadal has 13 total winners) and to lesser degree, Nadal with high 15 FEs
- UE counts (Delpo 31, Nadal 17), counter-balancing the Delpo's substantial offensive advantage

Its a quick-ish court, so its very strange that both players end up doing better off 2nd serves than 1sts. And 80% first serves in from Delpo is a ridiculously high figure

He serves heftily, but not unreturnably off force. And mostly places the serve near Nadal's swing zone (and Nadal's typically quick to move into it), rarely blasting down the odd very powerful or/and wide serve (unsually, but not necessarily when he's in trouble). On this type of court, that's potentially good enough to draw plenty of errors. In the event, 26% unreturned serves is quite low

Credit Nadal for consistency of return. He can't return with much heat though, and the way Delpo plays anything "not damaging" (as opposed to "weak" or even "neutral") is liable to get collared. And does

Delpo blasts the third ball for FH winners. Or hammers it BH cc to push Nadal on defensive. On Delpo's service games, action is all on his racquet. Plenty of errors, but plenty of point-killing shots too. Nadal defends very well. Delpo's got the game plan of attacking Nadal's FH down and that's where he prefers to send attacking shots - powerful and deep FH inside-outs or dtl or BH cc's - and Nadal's left to make running shots and/or near half-volley on that side

Attacking the Nadal FH in play is opposite of what he does with the serve, as he directs huge 75% to Nadal's BH. In general, Nadal's BH return is more consistent than the FH, which has a hand in him being able to put so many balls back in play. Curious mismatch of directions by Delpo on serve compared to in rallies

On flip side, just regulation, in swing zone serving from Nadal. Not damaging but on this court, with potential to draw returns that he can command (similar to how Delpo's serve works - though Nadal's is less hefty)

Instead, his serves gets blasted back deep. Lots and lots of defensive third balls for Nadal to make. At very high 86% return rate (Nadal has 0 aces), that's an amazing job on the return by Delpo, despite facing an undamaging serve. I doubt even Novak Djokovic could do better

Nadal serves smart, directing very large lot to the slow footed Delpo's body. He serves as much to the body as he does the FH (both 22%) with the rest to BH. Doesn't matter. Delpo blasts returns off BH too and apparently reads the body serves well enough to make room to hit during last stages of Nadal's service motion

Against that backdrop, even Nadal's service games feature Delpo attacking/Nadal defending dynamic regularly

Strange numbers for Nadal on serve. Winning 55% first serve points and 60% 2nds is odd enough, but sans double faults (of which he has a high 4), he wins huge 80% 2nd serve points. Both of Nadal's serves get blasted by Delpo without much difference. No real reason for him to be doing so much better off 2nd serves than 1sts - both serves get hammered about the same. He also has 0 aces to bolster the firsts, but still

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Delpo 19, Nadal 13
Errors forced - Delpo 15, Nadal 7
UEs - Delpo 31, Nadal 17
UEFI - Delpo 49.0, Nadal 47.1

Its not a "Delpo attacking, Nadal letting him, match" like the '09 final between Davydenko and Nadal. Its a Delpo takes action by scruff of neck and Nadal's forced to defend. First game of match, Nadal misses 3 winner attempts from 15-0 up (BH dtl, FH inside-out and OH) and goes on to get broken. The BH dtl in particular stands out as an unusual shot choice for him. He'd likely come into match looking to be proactive, but under fire from both Delpo's serve and return, he's forced on back foot. And there's no easing up from Delpo once rallies get going

Delpo's FH is centerpiece of action - with match high 15 winers (next highest is Nadal's with 8) and UEs with 19 (next highest, his BH with 12). He can and does blast FH point ender from regulation position. Stumped by both Delpo's serve and return, Nadal takes to looking to move him around - a sound plan against the slow Delpo - but that gets the huge FH spanner thrown into it, with Delpo blasting FH winners on the move too

Delpo with substantial hitting advantage on both wings pushes Nadal behind baseline (as opposed to Nadal falling back willingly, which he generally is wont to do when under the cosh) from where Delpo can move up to attack still more powerfully. Not that he needs to with his hitting

Delpo makes Nadal's 'not deep' balls into 'short' ones by taking a couple of steps behind baseline. A position from where it shouldn't be feasible to hit a point ending shot. For him, it is and he slaps his FH winners from there too.

No respite on the BH either. Delpo slaps those hard and deep too. Though completely overshadowed by the fat FH, some major firepower off the BH by Delpo too, strong enough to push Nadal back with cc power shots. In fact, Nadal does well to resist making errors

The down side is all the UEs, where Delpo has 31 to Nadal's 17. Breakdown of UEs -
- Neutral - Delpo 14, Nadal 10
- Attacking - Delpo 6, Nadal 2
- Winner attempts - Delpo 11, Nadal 5

That reflects a good job by both players. As aggressively as he goes for his shots, a few misses are inevitable for Delpo and 11 errors to go with 19 winners is good outcome. Nadal's 5/13 ratio is even better

6 attacking errors to go with 15 errors forced from Delpo is better than he's doing with the winners. And that's with Nadal putting all kinds of balls back in play defensively. On top of the winners out of regulation positions and counter-attackingly, Delpo also shows sound point construction - beating a weak ball out of Nadal and then hammering the winners. Again though, Nadal's 2/7 ratio is better still

Nadal is actually more efficient in offence, its just that Delpo is on offence much more often

Neutral errors of Delpo 14, Nadal 10 is relative win for Delpo as its an area Nadal tends to dominate most players. Nadal's are beaten out of him (i.e. relatively hard for UEs), while higher lot of Delpo's are routine shot misses, so again, the context of Delpo attacking/Nadal defending colours the stat

Taking Delpo's showing as a stellar one, these numbers more bring out how well Nadal played too, which is easy to miss seeing as he's a spectactor to Delpo's FH shotmaking much of the time. Nadal is more secure and more efficient in offence. The decisive thing is Delpo commanding play to tune of attacking much more often - something he's able to do in all ways possible - with the serve, with the return and by overpowering Nadal from neutral situations

Delpo finishes +4 points ended forcefully/UEs, Nadal +3 - fine showing from both players

Match Progression
Delpo races out to a 4-0 lead. After breaking on back off aggressive Nadal errors, he's down break point. Huge FH inside-out third ball winner erases that and he follows up with an ace and net point to hold

Some very powerful play in the next game. Superb BH pass winner from Nadal (he'd hit one previous game also), a bait Delpo to net play, draw defensive OH and finish with FH inside-out pass winner and a serve-volley BHV winner are Nadal's contributions. Delpo's are overwhelmingly powerful FHs. A 100 mph cc winner from a routine position stands out, but there's a good few others in there. On break point, he forces an errors with a big FH inside-out

Delpo faces break point again late in the set, where a deep BH cc gets him out of of, before he wraps up with consecutive dtl winners (1 of each wing). Nadal's in trouble game after too, with the rain of blasted FHs still coming down. From break point down, Nadal sends down 3 consective third ball FH winners of his own. Delpo serves out to love, finishing with consecutive aces. Despite the 22/26 first serves in for the set, he only had 2 prior to the game

Second set is more competitive though similar of dynamic. The sole break comes in game 3 and even by standards of this match, is brutal of FH force from Delpo. 2 spectacular net-to-net points also (1 ending with both players retreating under pressure) both go Delpo's way - the last of them on his 4th break point, where he sneaks up after Nadal does well to put a thundering FH dtl pass in play to guide BHV for winner

Delpo's under pressure in set too and all but 1 service game goes to deuce. He saves 4 break points across 3 games, almost always aggressively. Like Nadal in matches opening game, he misses 3 winner attempts on the trot at one stage to fall behind break point... but then just pounds the next 1 for a winner to save it. The point has to be reviewed, and ball is well in. There are a number of bad calls throughout the match

Nadal oddly starts 3 service games in a row with double faults, but holds easier for the set, Delpo's movements drop a bit near end. The only really poor game is the last, with Nadal missing 2 routine second serve returns and later, a BH as Delpo serves out to 15

Summing up, terrific hammer & tongs showing from del Potro - barely misisng a first serve while biffing down the ball, even more barely missing a return while biffing most and blasting the ball off both sides, especially the FH in play to overwhelming extent. Nadal is pushed on defensive throughout and is typically dogged at it, but there's no answer for del Potro's finishing shots. When he can, Nadal does well attacking too, but he's usually pushed on defensive

Great match and a fun one

Stats for pair's Indian Wells final - Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs del Potro, Indian Wells final, 2013 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

@Drob