Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4) in the Cincinnati final, 2023 on hard court
It was Djokovic’s 3rd title at the event and he would shortly after go onto win the US Open. The two had recently played the Wimbledon final, with Alcaraz winning in 5 sets
Djokovic won 133 points, Alcaraz 128
Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (73/128) 57%
- 1st serve points won (49/73) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (35/55) 64%
- Aces 4 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/128) 33%
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (86/133) 65%
- 1st serve points won (62/86) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (22/47) 47%
- Aces 12 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/133) 24%
Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 51%
- to BH 46%
- to Body 2%
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 30%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 6%
Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 96 (27 FH, 69 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (8 BH)
- 12 Forced (4 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (96/128) 75%
Alcaraz made...
- 81 (44 FH, 37 BH), including 4 runaround FHs, 3 return-approaches & 1 lob-return
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 38 Errors, comprising...
- 16 Unforced (14 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach attempt
- 22 Forced (11 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (81/123) 66%
Break Points
Djokovic 3/16 (7 games)
Alcaraz 4/10 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 17 (4 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 6 BHV, 3 OH)
Alcaraz 32 (15 FH, 7 BH, 8 FHV, 2 BHV)
Djokovic's FHs - 1 dtl pass at net, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 inside-out return
- 5 from serve-volley points
- 3 first volleys (1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH)
Alcaraz' FHs - 4 cc (1 return, 1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 3 drop shots
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl (2 passes), 1 lob
- 3 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 1 BHV), all first volleys
- 3 from return-approach points (3 FHV)
- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 59
- 48 Unforced (19 FH, 27 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)... with 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.0
Alcaraz 69
- 46 Unforced (21 FH, 23 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 23 Forced (15 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.0
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 22/31 (71%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 0/1 off 1st serve and...
- 6/6 (100%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back
Alcaraz was...
- 16/21 (76%) at net, including...
- 7/9 (78%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 3/3 (100%) return-approaching
Match Report
The tension and intensity is off the charts for most of the final set, with the tennis good too to. Combo of the two is almost enough to wipe out memory of just how poorly played the match had been before that. Watch the ending, and you’ll think neither player deserves to lose. Watch the rest, and you’ll think neither player deserves to win. Fitting enough that Djokovic wins as he’s the one who has always led in the decider - and the tension of him being unable to close things out when on the brink is based on his being physically off all match. Court is normal of pace, with bounce on high side
Long before that, Alcaraz has a match point in the second set tie-break. Its erased with prejudice - strong serve drawing weak return and a slapped away winning FH inside-in
Third set though is Djoko’s. He breaks for 4-3, having narrowly failed to do so on his previous attempt. He’s got 2 match points in his next return game, both turning into net points (1 for each player) and both going to Alcs. He’s got 2 more serving for the match after that, interspersed with 4 break points for Alcs and again, its Alcs who comes through. He’s got 4 break points the game after, with the living on the edge Alcs turning to serve-volley to come away with the hold
And he finally converts in a nervy tiebreak. Amidst such tension, the tennis is very good. In that last set -
Winners - Djoko 6, Alcs 17
Errors Forced - Djoko 12, Alcs 8
UEs - Djoko 14, Alcs 18
Winner/UE differential - Djoko -8, Alcs -1
Aggressively ended points/UE differential - Djoko +4, Alcs +7
Not too shabby at any time, pretty great with everything that’s going around. (Match long is a very different story, which we’ll get to in a bit)
That’s the drama and tension. The background is Djokovic being a rock (as in, moving like one, not being impenetrable)
Djokovic’s Condition, Prospects & Dynamics
Djokovic looks tired even at the start. By middle of first set, very tired. By the end of it, dead on his feet with hollow eyes. Long term followers of the game will be familiar with the look; it’s the one he’s often sported an hour before holding up a trophy, with his opponent standing next to him holding what looks like a decent plate to serve muffins on
His history is such that one would do well to not take facial expressions and body language cues too seriously. Here though, there’s a difference. He moves terribly all match - his best movement is right at the start when its merely bad. For most of match, terrible - the worst I’ve seen from him by a country mile. Looks like he’s carrying an unnecessary pound or two around the gut too
Its not confined to sideways movement, which is poor enough. All match, and more so as match goes on, Djoko doesn’t get down for his groundstrokes, especially the BH. A little stoop of the shoulders is extent of his set-up (as opposed to getting down and moving up with the shot, as is his habit. It’s a sign of what a fine ball-striker he is that it doesn’t lead to weak shots. Errors yes - plenty of those, but still decent force and depth on his groundies despite the mechanics. 9/10 players trying to hit groundies like this would cough up a soft mid-court ball sooner rather than later, but not Djoko
15-30 with Alcaraz serving for the first set, Djoko lets a gettable BH cc go without chase. Usually lets drop shots go for winners uncontested. He’s broken early in second set with 3 double faults in a row - the last fault is so puny that it would probably have bounced twice or thrice before reaching the baseline had it made it over the net. Even amidst the tension of the decider with everything to play for, he declines to chase a few balls and is slow enough that he just barely reaches what would usually be almost routine, slightly wide balls
Some theatrics too. In second set tiebreak, he appears to be on the verge of losing his balance after making an error. He did plenty of this back in 2012 US Open final too - and it looks as artificial here as it did then
Whatever’s wrong with him - it looks more like fatigue than injury, though its strange that he’d be fatigued at very start - clearly, something is and that sets the stage for the story. Not a 50-50 of prospect slugfest, but a hampered Djoko versus a fit Alcaraz - likely to go the way of Alc leading, Djoko reacting at best from Djoko’s point of view. And so it is
With Djoko in such a state, what does that leave Alcaraz to do? One would imagine, whatever he likes. He’s quite capable of beating any version of Djokovic, let alone a slothful one
Alc’s proceeds to -
- serve pretty well
- return poorly (of consistency, of strategy)
- under-perform off the ground (questionable strategy, not very good execution)
And Djoko? Within limits set by his state, he plays superbly (by standards of a normal state, not well).
- Serves pretty well, but more a blackmark against Alc’s returning for how that contest turns out
- Returns steadily - good job
- Can’t match Alc’s hitting but doesn’t fall too far behind on the error front - relative win
- Attacks moderately, with just-so precisely wide dtl shots on occasion. Not sure point-enders against the very quick Alc’s but usually wins such points - win
- Comes to net, second serve-volleys with Alc’s taking second returns from well back and volleys beautifully there - very good
All in context of a fleet Alc’s leading play, a slow Djoko reacting/counter-punching - which as a starting point, looks very gloomy from Djoko’s point of view
As for quality of play, this is, without shadow of a doubt, the greatest match ever played… where both players end up with more UEs than winners + errors forced
Djoko… 17 winners, 23 errors forced, 48 UEs
Winners/UE differential -31
Aggressively ended points/UE differential -8
Alcs… 32 winners, 11 errors forced, 46 UEs
Winner/UE differential -14
Aggressively ended points/UE differential -3
The finale is as memorable as they come - and the tennis is good to boot. Makes for quite spectacle (credit also to the crowd, who gets suitably excited, without hampering the players)
The first 2 sets are, to mince words, not the best. In French, a bunch of crap
It was Djokovic’s 3rd title at the event and he would shortly after go onto win the US Open. The two had recently played the Wimbledon final, with Alcaraz winning in 5 sets
Djokovic won 133 points, Alcaraz 128
Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (73/128) 57%
- 1st serve points won (49/73) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (35/55) 64%
- Aces 4 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/128) 33%
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (86/133) 65%
- 1st serve points won (62/86) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (22/47) 47%
- Aces 12 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/133) 24%
Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 51%
- to BH 46%
- to Body 2%
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 30%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 6%
Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 96 (27 FH, 69 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (8 BH)
- 12 Forced (4 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (96/128) 75%
Alcaraz made...
- 81 (44 FH, 37 BH), including 4 runaround FHs, 3 return-approaches & 1 lob-return
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 38 Errors, comprising...
- 16 Unforced (14 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach attempt
- 22 Forced (11 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (81/123) 66%
Break Points
Djokovic 3/16 (7 games)
Alcaraz 4/10 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 17 (4 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 6 BHV, 3 OH)
Alcaraz 32 (15 FH, 7 BH, 8 FHV, 2 BHV)
Djokovic's FHs - 1 dtl pass at net, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 inside-out return
- 5 from serve-volley points
- 3 first volleys (1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH)
Alcaraz' FHs - 4 cc (1 return, 1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 3 drop shots
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl (2 passes), 1 lob
- 3 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 1 BHV), all first volleys
- 3 from return-approach points (3 FHV)
- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 59
- 48 Unforced (19 FH, 27 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)... with 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.0
Alcaraz 69
- 46 Unforced (21 FH, 23 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 23 Forced (15 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.0
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 22/31 (71%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 0/1 off 1st serve and...
- 6/6 (100%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back
Alcaraz was...
- 16/21 (76%) at net, including...
- 7/9 (78%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 3/3 (100%) return-approaching
Match Report
The tension and intensity is off the charts for most of the final set, with the tennis good too to. Combo of the two is almost enough to wipe out memory of just how poorly played the match had been before that. Watch the ending, and you’ll think neither player deserves to lose. Watch the rest, and you’ll think neither player deserves to win. Fitting enough that Djokovic wins as he’s the one who has always led in the decider - and the tension of him being unable to close things out when on the brink is based on his being physically off all match. Court is normal of pace, with bounce on high side
Long before that, Alcaraz has a match point in the second set tie-break. Its erased with prejudice - strong serve drawing weak return and a slapped away winning FH inside-in
Third set though is Djoko’s. He breaks for 4-3, having narrowly failed to do so on his previous attempt. He’s got 2 match points in his next return game, both turning into net points (1 for each player) and both going to Alcs. He’s got 2 more serving for the match after that, interspersed with 4 break points for Alcs and again, its Alcs who comes through. He’s got 4 break points the game after, with the living on the edge Alcs turning to serve-volley to come away with the hold
And he finally converts in a nervy tiebreak. Amidst such tension, the tennis is very good. In that last set -
Winners - Djoko 6, Alcs 17
Errors Forced - Djoko 12, Alcs 8
UEs - Djoko 14, Alcs 18
Winner/UE differential - Djoko -8, Alcs -1
Aggressively ended points/UE differential - Djoko +4, Alcs +7
Not too shabby at any time, pretty great with everything that’s going around. (Match long is a very different story, which we’ll get to in a bit)
That’s the drama and tension. The background is Djokovic being a rock (as in, moving like one, not being impenetrable)
Djokovic’s Condition, Prospects & Dynamics
Djokovic looks tired even at the start. By middle of first set, very tired. By the end of it, dead on his feet with hollow eyes. Long term followers of the game will be familiar with the look; it’s the one he’s often sported an hour before holding up a trophy, with his opponent standing next to him holding what looks like a decent plate to serve muffins on
His history is such that one would do well to not take facial expressions and body language cues too seriously. Here though, there’s a difference. He moves terribly all match - his best movement is right at the start when its merely bad. For most of match, terrible - the worst I’ve seen from him by a country mile. Looks like he’s carrying an unnecessary pound or two around the gut too
Its not confined to sideways movement, which is poor enough. All match, and more so as match goes on, Djoko doesn’t get down for his groundstrokes, especially the BH. A little stoop of the shoulders is extent of his set-up (as opposed to getting down and moving up with the shot, as is his habit. It’s a sign of what a fine ball-striker he is that it doesn’t lead to weak shots. Errors yes - plenty of those, but still decent force and depth on his groundies despite the mechanics. 9/10 players trying to hit groundies like this would cough up a soft mid-court ball sooner rather than later, but not Djoko
15-30 with Alcaraz serving for the first set, Djoko lets a gettable BH cc go without chase. Usually lets drop shots go for winners uncontested. He’s broken early in second set with 3 double faults in a row - the last fault is so puny that it would probably have bounced twice or thrice before reaching the baseline had it made it over the net. Even amidst the tension of the decider with everything to play for, he declines to chase a few balls and is slow enough that he just barely reaches what would usually be almost routine, slightly wide balls
Some theatrics too. In second set tiebreak, he appears to be on the verge of losing his balance after making an error. He did plenty of this back in 2012 US Open final too - and it looks as artificial here as it did then
Whatever’s wrong with him - it looks more like fatigue than injury, though its strange that he’d be fatigued at very start - clearly, something is and that sets the stage for the story. Not a 50-50 of prospect slugfest, but a hampered Djoko versus a fit Alcaraz - likely to go the way of Alc leading, Djoko reacting at best from Djoko’s point of view. And so it is
With Djoko in such a state, what does that leave Alcaraz to do? One would imagine, whatever he likes. He’s quite capable of beating any version of Djokovic, let alone a slothful one
Alc’s proceeds to -
- serve pretty well
- return poorly (of consistency, of strategy)
- under-perform off the ground (questionable strategy, not very good execution)
And Djoko? Within limits set by his state, he plays superbly (by standards of a normal state, not well).
- Serves pretty well, but more a blackmark against Alc’s returning for how that contest turns out
- Returns steadily - good job
- Can’t match Alc’s hitting but doesn’t fall too far behind on the error front - relative win
- Attacks moderately, with just-so precisely wide dtl shots on occasion. Not sure point-enders against the very quick Alc’s but usually wins such points - win
- Comes to net, second serve-volleys with Alc’s taking second returns from well back and volleys beautifully there - very good
All in context of a fleet Alc’s leading play, a slow Djoko reacting/counter-punching - which as a starting point, looks very gloomy from Djoko’s point of view
As for quality of play, this is, without shadow of a doubt, the greatest match ever played… where both players end up with more UEs than winners + errors forced
Djoko… 17 winners, 23 errors forced, 48 UEs
Winners/UE differential -31
Aggressively ended points/UE differential -8
Alcs… 32 winners, 11 errors forced, 46 UEs
Winner/UE differential -14
Aggressively ended points/UE differential -3
The finale is as memorable as they come - and the tennis is good to boot. Makes for quite spectacle (credit also to the crowd, who gets suitably excited, without hampering the players)
The first 2 sets are, to mince words, not the best. In French, a bunch of crap
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