Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Berdych, Monte Carlo final, 2015

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Tomas Berdych 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 in the Monte Carlo final, 2015 on clay

It was Djokovic's second title at the event and 4th straight Masters title. This was Berdych's only final at the event

Djokovic won 106 points, Berdych 104

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (60/102) 59%
- 1st serve points won (40/60) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (21/42) 50%
- Aces 3 (1 second serve - a whiff, possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/102) 21%

Berdych...
- 1st serve percentage (48/108) 44%
- 1st serve points won (36/48) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (27/60) 45%
- Aces 1, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/108) 22%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 45%
- to Body 8%

Berdych served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 84 (22 FH, 62 BH)
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (2 FH, 5 BH)
- 15 Forced (8 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (84/108) 78%

Berdych made...
- 76 (39 FH, 37 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (5 FH, 5 BH)
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (76/97) 78%

Break Points
Djokovic 5/14 (9 games)
Berdych 4/10 (6 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 18 (10 FH, 8 BH)
Berdych 28 (10 FH, 7 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 6 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc (2 passes), 1 dtl, 2 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc and 1 longline (bad bounce related)
- BHs - 4 dtl (1 return), 1 inside-out return, 2 drop shots and 1 lob

Berdych's FHs - 5 cc (1 return, 2 at net - 1 can reasonably be a called an OH on the bounce), 1 inside-out, 3 inside-in (1 return) and 1 running-down-drop-shot net chord dribbler at net
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 4 dtl and 1 inside-out

- 1 FHV was a swinging shot
- 2 OHs were on the bounce - 1 from no-man's land, 1 from the baseline

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 47
- 35 Unforced (18 FH, 17 BH)... with 1 FH pass attempt at net
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.4

Berdych 67
- 57 Unforced (32 FH, 22 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 BH at net
- 10 Forced (8 FH, 2 BH)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was 2/4 (50%) at net

Berdych was...
- 19/28 (68%) at net, with...
- 2/2 forced back

Match Report
An ugly match with Djokovic mostly pushing while Berdych looks to overpower him from the back. Both players are loose off the ground - Berdych to the point of being poor

Court is strange. Its overcast day and apparently cold. Spectators are huddled up in layers. Its raining for 3-4 games and there's an hour break for it. Bounce is distinctly low and slices stay below knee height. Slicing regularly would likely be effective, particularly against the tall Bedy, who looks awkward against the low ball and is a bit loose against it (though that's also true for every other kind of height ball also), and Djo indulges a little bit. Small by general standard, large for him. There are plenty of bad bounces and errors from balls that seem to have kept low or checked

Djoko has match fairly comfortably under control. More so to my eye than stats indicate, which have come out a bit unusual

Djoko wins 106 points, Berdy 104. Razor think margin, with no significant difference in points served (Berdy serves 6 more, while Djokovic serves the extra game)
With that thin a margin, you'd expect Berdy to have had a lot of chances on return, but that isn't the case
Break points - Djoko 5/14 (9 games), Berdy 4/10 (6 games)

Playing quality is poor. Even the winner Djokovic has just shy of double the UEs (35) as winners (18). Berdy has very similar ratio (28 winners, 57 UEs)
Throwing in FEs with winners, points ended forcefully/UE differentials come to - Djoko -7, Berdy -17

Terrible numbers and fair reflection of quality of play. Bad bounces, including pace changes probably have a hand in some of the UEs, but they also have hand in the small number of FEs (and even the winners)

Djokovic keeps it very simple. Basically, he pushes. 4 trips to net (Berdy has 28). 28/35 UEs are neutral shots and UEFI is very low 43.4. He's not particularly consistent either, its just that Berdy is a lot looser still. Even serve is held back - and on this court, there's potential to be damaging with it. Not quite 2 'second serves' showing, but mostly, very ordinary, point starting serving. 10/18 or 56% of Berdy's return errors have been marked unforced. By contrast, unforced errors comprise 7/22 or 32% of Djoko's returns - despite Djoko serving at much larger 59% first serves in to Berdy's 44%

He rifles the odd BH dtl, on which he has 3 winners. And uses drop shots. Its an interesting choice. Berdy's rarely too far back in the court, moves well, but struggles to get down. Very few errors trying to drop shot by Djoko (at least 1, at most 2), which for him is good, but Berdy can usually reach the ball comfortably

Typical, thumping returns from Djoko. That's the one area he can always be counted on to un-passive... his natural returning is neutralizing to initiative grabbing in general and this match is no exception. Down the middle, thumped and fairly often, deep

Otherwise, near pushing type hitting from Djoko. and 35 UEs - virtually identically distributed by wing (FH 18, BH 17) so doing... its not pretty, its not good

I like Berdy's approach. Assuming he'd come off second best in who-blinks-first encounters, onus is on him to attack. And he tries

Huge 1st serving, but misses it most of the time with in-count of 44%. Djoko does well to keep the aces down to just 1. Some choice, big 2nd serves too - but no double faults

He comes to net to attack or is drawn there by Djoko's drop shots. In neutral rallies, he leads play and is the one hitting wider and harder. Some good defence from Djoko in running side to side, but not overly tested. Berdy misses sooner rather than later

Standard of his play goes in spurts. Rarely, including start of match, he's impressive. Generally, he's loose. Occasionally, he's on error benders such as early part of 3rd set

The odd successful BH dtl - he has 4 winners - stand out as surprising and surprisingly good, given how often he dumps neutral BHs out. And he doesn't miss many aggressive BHs, though its FH that he leads attacks with. Also, some selected, aggressive returning. Djoko's ordinary serving does invite it and good move from Berdy to accept the challenge. Daringly attacking return is key to what success he has

Still, 57 UEs is the main thing about his showing. FH is chief culprit with 32, the BH has 22. Both are unreliably neutrally, but the FH also misses more aggressive shots that the BH doesn't go for

Match Progression
Great, aggressive start from Berdy with powerful returns getting him the break in first game of match. He carries on with gusto - attacking early in rallies off both wings, returning wide and going close to lines. For 5 games, playing quality is high with Berdy leading and Djoko forced to play well

The down side of Berdy's style of play hits when he's broken back in 8 point game where he misses 4 FH winner attempts. Playing quality does a nose dive from there, and most points end with UEs

Players trade breaks thereafter - errors losing Berdy his serve, strong play from him getting the break back (including defending ably to come away with the last point of game). He's rarely on defence in the match.

Djoko breaks to end the set. Some typically hefty returning and some Berdy looseness starts the process but Djoko finishes punishingly. Typically Djokovic - he's pushing all set, but come the choice time in the choice game, he's able to turn it up just enough to win forcefully, with something held in reserve

2nd set continues scraggily, though both players have chances to break. Its Berdy who manages in a game of particularly strong returns to go up 4-3. No trouble holding twice more to force the decider

Only Berdy's FH goes on a bender and he's given away 10 UEs off that side in losing the first 4 games. He snags a break back - Djoko missing a sitter from well inside court and double faulting having a hand - struggles to consolidate but manages. Rifles back to back imperious BH dtl winners in his next return game, but misses regulation returns as Djoko holds again. Again struggles to hold, but manages before Djokovic serves out the match

Summing up, not a pretty match and a not a good one. Djokovic keeps it very simple - serving harmlessly and pushing ball in play from the back, while barely moving forward. Berdych looks to take charge with big serves, aggressive wide and/or powerful returns and hard hitting groundies, while coming to net to finish too. Its a good approach for him, and Djokovic is occasionally forced to defend ably against it at times, but the errors eventually start coming and before long, become a flood. Meanwhile, rallying neutrally favours Djokovic too, who is the more consistent player, without being particularly consistent

Stats for Djokovic's semi with Rafael Nadal - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Monte Carlo semi-final & French Open quarter-final, 2015 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
 
Match seems like it’s worse than I remember. Then again, it’s 2015 Berdych.

I was struck by the similarities in Djokovic's approach here and in the French Open final with Wawrinka soon after
Also, the parallel similarities in his matches earlier in the tournaments with Nadal

Nadal's plopped balls in play - not hard hit, not heavily spun, on short side - and Djokovic stepped up to destroy him

Berdych and Wawrinka though hit firmly or hard

Taking a time free version of Djokovic, I'd expect him to trade hard hitting groundies and compete for advantage from where he can attack against it. and the error rate battle coming from such a dynamic are likely to favour him too

He doesn't do that in either match. Just pushes ball back, leaving action on their racquet

Basically, he's counting on them missing more often than not when stepping up to attack

Its not necessarily a bad strategy though a very passive one, but for Djokovic - one of the best hard-hitting, neutral ralliers - a strange one. Even if he wins, there are more comfortable ways of getting the same result

In general, Djokovic hits great balance in what he wants to do in a given match. Rarely see him go crazy attacking, rarely see him getting run ragged

Regardless of results, think he got it wrong in these matches. Maybe something he was playing with in the '15 season for clay. He certainly wasn't pushing on other surfaces that year
 
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