Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Berrettini, Wimbledon final, 2021

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Matteo Berrettini 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the Wimbledon final, 2021 on grass

Djokovic was the defending champion from 2019 and had won Australian and French Open earlier in the year. This was his 6th title at the event and record tying 20 Slam title. Berrettini was playing his first Slam final. He'd won the title at Queen's Club leading into the event

Djokovic won 145 points, Berrettini 131

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (75/122) 61%
- 1st serve points won (59/75) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (25/47) 53%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (36/122) 30%

Berrettini...
- 1st serve percentage (91/154) 59%
- 1st serve points won (69/91) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (24/63) 38%
- Aces 16, Service Winners 3 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (48/154) 31%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 9%

Berrettini served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 42%
- to Body 17%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 103 (57 FH, 46 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 29 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- 22 Forced (8 FH, 14 BH)
- Return Rate (103/151) 68%

Berrettini made...
- 82 (32 FH, 50 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 29 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (6 FH, 2 BH)
- 21 Forced (10 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (82/118) 69%

Break Points
Djokovic 6/15 (8 games)
Berrettini 2/7 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 24 (10 FH, 5 BH, 3 FHV, 6 BHV)
Berrettini 36 (19 FH, 5 BH, 4 FHV, 2 BHV, 6 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc (1 return), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net
- BHs - 1 cc, 3 dtl and 1 drop shot

- 4 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV)... the BHV was a net chord flicker & 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV)

Berrettini's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 1 cc/longline, 4 dtl (2 passes), 1 dtl/inside-out, 4 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline, 1 longline/inside-out, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net and 1 running-down-drop shot dtl at net
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl pass, 1 longline at net (a slice), 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net

- 1 FHV was a non-net shot and 1 OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 43
- 32 Unforced (17 FH, 14 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 11 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH at net (pass attempt)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.6

Berrettini 82
- 57 Unforced (35 FH, 20 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH at net, 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net, 2 BH at net (1 pass attempt) & 1 non-net swinging FHV
- 25 Forced (12 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 32/46 (70%) at net, including...
- 9/11 (82%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 0/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Berrettini was...
- 21/34 (62%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back

Match Report
One sided encounter, with Djokovic always the stronger player. His returning is outstanding and key to the match. Off the baseline, matters are close to being a mismatch in his favour. For grass, court is slow

Its a typical match where one player has the more potent serve (Berrettini) and the other has better court game (Djokovic). In matches like that, its crucial for the stronger server to fire with the first shot

And Beri serves well - he's got 16 aces, 3 service winners to Djoko's 5 and 2 - and healthy enough 59% first serves in. Djoko though calmly thumps returns to neutralize Beri's prospective advantage regularly. Doesn't matter if serve is 130 or 135mph... if it not particularly wide on top of being very powerful, its apt to be thumped - and once things are neutral, Djoko's easily the better player. Beri plays around with body serves - serving high 17% there - and they're good, cramping ones. Djoko deftly steps aside and smacks them the same way too

Key stats on serve are near identical unreturned rates (Djoko 30%, Beri 31%) and Beri with low 38% second serve points won (Djoko's 53% by contrast)

In light of the unreturnables being so heavily in Beri's favour (19-7), unreturned rates being equal is a bad outcome for him. In secondary light of how the two stack up against one another from the back, a very bad outcome. He'd need to have substantial lead on unreturneds to be competitive

Breakdown of return errors though are very similar
- UEs - Djoko 7, Beri 8
- FEs - Djoko 22, Beri 21

Again, in light of Beri with considerably stronger serve, that's not a good outcome for him. Djoko for his part serves as well as he needs to to draw errors and weak returns. If he has an extra gear on the serve, he doesn't go to it. Good, healthy serving from Djokovic and a normal job on the return by Beri. He blocks hefty serves back in play and his return rate is standard for grass court against such a serve. Normal stuff

What's abnormal is the way Djoko returns the significantly more powerful Beri serve. Its not just the return rate that's good, but the firm way he returns. Its doubtful anyone else could return this calibre a serve with such authority

In short, credit Djoko's return for how serve-return complex plays out. He returns powerful serves steadily, and he thumps normal serves (and occasionally, good ones) often. Otherwise, both have good serves - Beri more - and Beri returns well enough

First serve points are near enough equal - Djoko is +2% on in-count and +3% in points won
Second serve points won though read Djoko 53%, Beri 38%

Djoko's 53% isn't a "mismatch" number. In fact, its on low side for grass. Whats more, he serves some particularly good, forcefully wide second serves on occasion. So the crucial factor is Djoko's 2nd serve return. He doesn't unduly attack the return, but plays it in his default, firmly bopped way. Strainlessly effective

 

[Waspsting]

In play, things are sizably in Djoko's favour

- Winners - Djoko 24, Beri 36
- Errors Forced - Djoko 25, Beri 11
- UEs - Djoko 32, Beri 57

Djoko leads action with firmly struck deep-ish groundies. Rarely 'powerful' or very deep. Standard, 3rd gear Djokovic stuff. He does seek Beri's suspect BH to an extent, but not unduly. Rarely does he push into aggressive territory from the baseline and mostly, looks to draw errors - some mix of outlasting and outmanuvering Beri, with smaller part of beating him down

For aggression, Djoko comes to net and is excellent 32/46 ot 70% there, including 9/11 serve-volleying. 10/24 winners are net shots. That's the minority aggression. The bulk is squeezing Beri out from the back

Beri's BH is outhit handily in cc rallies and even trails in consistency on the slice, but hasn't done too badly in all. Baseline BH UEs read Djoko 13, Beri 18. Both players have 5 winners on the side - Beri's are all passes, shots at net or drop shots while 4/5 of Djoko's are power groundies from the back. It might look a complete mismatch - the firm, easy BH hitting with effortless longline change-ups of Djoko verus the reactive, push back of Beri, but in numbers, not too big an advantage for the winner

FH figures are more in Djoko's favour and they're along lines of steady hitter versus flashy shot maker. On the FH -

- Djoko 10 winners, 17 UEs
- Beri 19 winners, 34 UEs (both match highs by almost double - next highest winners is Djoko's FH and next highest UEs is Beri's BH with 20)

The high winners, high UEs often come about when a player is constantly going for his shots. Not what happens here. Beri's shotmaking efficiency is good. His problem is inability to keep the ball in court just trading groundies

Breakdown of UEs -
- Neutral - Djoko 17, Beri 34
- Attacking - both 9
- Winner Attempts - Djoko 6, Beri 13

Removing returns, passes and net shots from both winners and UEs (i.e. looking at baseline-to-baseline shots in rallies), Djoko's got 13 winners, 5 winner attempt UEs. Beri has 16 winners, 11 attempts trying. Not very good from Beri and considerably behind Djoko, but head above water. His FH does deliver

9 attacking UEs from Beri is very poor given he's only forced 11 errors. Lot of credit to Djoko for this, who not only resists giving up errors but hits normal, firm shots from defensive postions - limiting Beri's ability to stay on the attack (let alone winning points with strong, attacking shots). Djoko by contrast forces high 25 errors, roughly equally from net and baseline

24 winners while forcing 25 errors is indicative of a well balanced, smartly played attack from Djokovic. Ending pints with minimal risk. Beri's defence is normal, but Djoko keeps up the pressuring attacks to conclusion. Very different from what happens when attacker-defender roles are reversed

The neutral errors situation is hopless from Beri's point of view. Pretty solid stuff from Djoko but more discredit to Beri for looseness here. This is the mistmatch part of action. He has trouble with low FHs in particular

Match Progression
Dramatic first set, if not particularly good. Both players start nervily - Djoko double faults 3 times in his first two service games, Beri is loose of the ground. Djoko saves a break point in the first game of the match with an unreturned serve.

Djoko settles soon after, but Beri remains poor - missing groundies and drop shots and even a putaway OH. He's broken to go down 1-3 and awhile later, struggles through to hold a 22 point game (though remarkably only facing 1 break point)

Completely against run of play, Beri breaks back as Djoko serves for the set at 5-3. Couple of FH errors from Djoko - including a regulation third ball inside-out - but 3 fine FH winners by Beri. Beri finally loosens up and goes for his FHs - makes some, misses some, but its better than timidly making errors from the back as he'd been doing

Beri holds a deuce game to send set into tiebreak. He wins the first 3 points (1 mini-break) via e Djoko UEs (including a return). The last time Djokovic had been in a Wimbledon final, he'd gone 3 tiebreaks and 33 points without a UE.

Rest of 'breaker rests on Beri's FH - he hits 2 winners and misses 2 attempts. At 4-5, Djoko drop shots Beri to net but can't make the pass afterwards and Beri slams down an ace on his first set point

Djoko serves 42 points in the set, Beri 61

Djoko immediately lifts his game in second set, starts hitting with more vigour and races out to 4-0 lead. Again though, he fails to serve out the set and Beri grabs one break back. Doesn't do a lot for Djoko's sense of humour and start the game after with a fired BH dtl winner, but Beri holds from 0-40. Djoko serves out to love this time - a third ball BH cc winner and 3 unreturned serves

Memorable point in the set with a forced back from net Beri pulling off a tweener lob that forces Djoko back and forced to error on a back-to-net shot

Third set is Beri's best and the only one where he serves fewer points (24 to 32). He starts the set the way Djoko ended the last - a hold to love with 3 aces and a third ball FH dtl winner. Takes Djoko to deuce in consecutive return games - having 2 break points in the second game, erased by net approaches. Smacks 2 huge FH winners to hold to love after that. Unfortunatly for him, he's broken early to 30 before all that - starting the game with a double fault and ending it by blinking in a slice rally. Penultimate point to bring up break point is Djoko making a full running, sliding, power pass to force a BH1/2V error

4th set is on serve with Beri up 3-2 before Djoko takes last 4 games to end the match. Beri has trouble with low balls in this end phase

Summing up, solid showing from Djokovic. His thumping returns against a powerful serve and strong shots from defensive positions stand out for quality and thwarts Berrettini's ability to attack. Not bad attacking play from Berrettini, but once position goes to neutral, he's sizably outmatched trading groundstrokes and struggles to keep the ball in play