Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Federer, Wimbledon final, 2015

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Roger Federer 7-6(1), 6-7 (10), 6-4, 6-3 in the Wimbledon final, 2015 on grass

Djokovic would go onto win the next 3 Slams - including beating Federer at the next two - to complete a non-calendar year Grand Slam. He was also the reigning Australian Open champion and French Open finalist. Federer had been going for a record breaking 8th Wimbledon title - which he would eventually snag in 2017

Djokovic won 148 points, Federer 138

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (96/145) 66%
- 1st serve points won (71/96) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (29/49) 59%
- Aces 13 (1 second serve), Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (48/145) 33%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (94/141) 67%
- 1st serve points won (70/94) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (23/47) 49%
- Aces 14, Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/141) 31%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 6%

Federer served...
- to FH 45%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 94 (39 FH, 55 BH)
- 5 Winners (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 25 Forced (14 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (94/138) 68%

Federer made...
- 96 (36 FH, 60 BH), including 2 runaround FHs and 5 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 32 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (3 FH, 8 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 21 Forced (12 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (96/144) 67%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/10 (7 games)
Federer 1/7 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 29 (17 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV, 2 OH)
Federer 41 (15 FH, 4 BH, 4 FHV, 8 BHV, 9 OH, 1 BHOH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc (2 passes, 1 return), 3 dtl (1 return, 1 running-down-drop-shot at net), 5 inside-out (2 passes - 1 at net), 2 inside-in, 1 longline and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 2 cc, 5 dtl (3 returns - 1 of them a pass - and 1 running-down-drop-volley at net) and 1 inside-out pass

Federer's FHs - 1 cc return (which Djokovic misjudged and left), 3 dtl (1 pass), 1 dtl/inside-out, 8 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 inside-out pass and 1 lob

- 12 from serve-volley points
- 5 first volleys (2 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 7 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH, 1 BHOH)

- 2 from return-approach points (2 BHV)
- 1 FHV was a swinging shot, a pass and not a net point

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 52
- 19 Unforced (8 FH, 10 BH, 1 OH)
- 33 Forced (12 FH, 20 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.9

Federer 68
- 40 Unforced (21 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 28 Forced (16 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 14/27 (52%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Federer was...
- 43/61 (70%) at net, including...
- 22/31 (71%) serve-volleying, comprising..
- 15/20 (75%) off 1st serve and...
- 7/11 (64%) off 2nd serve
---
- 3/5 (60%) return-approaching
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
By far the best of the pairs 4 matches at the event and but for a slight (and its only slight) drop in Federer's level in 4th set, a great match. The main key to the match are the returns - particularly strong from Djokovic and some not great stuff from Federer. From the baseline, Djoko is much the stronger player and leads with FH. Federer uses net play (including serve-volleying off both serves) as his chief line of attack and is very successful with that. Its also largely a who-plays-the-big-points-better match... and Djoko is particularly clutch. In addition to maintaining a very high level of play throughout the match

Serving & Returning
Match is essentially a serve-dominated one, as grass matches tend to be. Generally, on this surface and with good servers, result tends to center around who'll have a bad service game first. While that's not untrue here, in case of Federer serving/Djokovic returning, it feels as much like when Djokovic will have a good returning game

Look at basic first serve stats. First serves in, Djoko's at 66%, Fed 67%... and both win 74% of those points. Fed's serve is a lot stronger - results being about equal is a testament particularly to Djoko's superiority on return and lesser extent, in play

Djoko's first serve is almost always strong but the placement varies from good to normal. Wide strong serves tend to go unreturned (note near identical aces/service winners - Djoko with 13/3, Fed 14/3), credit Djoko for those. But there's a bundle of highly makeable strong serves that Fed can swing at without moving that also don't come back. Black mark against Fed's returning for those... but it seems to be a general feature of his game around this period rather than indicating a bad day. Simply, he's just not a very consistent returner. Andy Roddick on commentary notes Djoko's serve doesn't have much spin on it and is slightly surprised to Fed has as much trouble with it as he does

Where things really go into negatives for Fed on return is against second serves. Note the 11 UEs. The odd good second serve from Djoko but for the most part, his second serves are normal if not weak, mid to high 80mph's range and safely placed in middle of box. Fed misses some of these returns and neither tries to particularly attack them - and mostly fails with moderate attack attempts

In light of his putting faith in net play and serve-volleying (he comes in 61 times in match - 31 of those serve-volleys) in the match, I thought Fed would have been best served attacking second serves via chip-charge returns. He only does so 5 times (winning 3) and rarely is Djoko's serve so strong as to make the play a difficult one. In other matches between the two, his not doing so is more understandable when Djoko has just a slight lead from the baseline and the baseline being Fed's preferred place to play from. Here though, Djoko's a lot better from the back... and staying there to exchange groundies isn't smart

Fed seems to have realized this on service games... why not on return, where he has little to lose anyway?

Clutch serving from Djoko too. When in trouble, he tends to find his best first serves. When he misses that, quality of second serves are the same mixed bag as general

But for his misses, Fed returns well too. Its not unusual for Fed to put returns in play relatively softly. Here though, whatever he does get back, he gets back with depth or places well. Its not getting enough back that's his problem. With the considerable difference between the two players' serving strength, Djoko leading unreturned serves 33% to 31% doesn't bode well for Fed

Djoko though, returns splendidly. Federer serves very well - normal for him - strong first serves, strong second serves. Generally, he seems to up his second serving against Djoko, probably wary of what he knows tends to happen to weak second serves - and that's true here

Djoko though, seems to read the serve well (he has good days and not good days in this area against Fed - usually the latter), and is moving into position at last stage of serving motion. Manages to get a high number of wide serves back in play, and virtually everything not wide comes back. Even some strong wide serves are returned strong and deep down the middle... and the bulk of not-wide serves are. And 5 return winners - 4 only 1 of them a pass - thrown in... terrific returning from Djokovic against some high quality serving from Federer

A patterns I'm seeing in this match up is Djoko forcing bulk of return errors from Fed's FH. He found something there... I'd have thought there's virtually nothing Fed does better of BH than FH return

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline
Djoko is much the better player off the baseline and is exceptional in his standard

- Very few UEs - just 18. Fed has 37 - though those tend to be on the forced side for being marked unforced but that's because...

- Djoko's 'regulation' groundshots are strong and deep. Ball after ball are hit so, which is the standout feature of his game. But there's more than even that... he also moves Fed side-to-side moderately, especially to the FH side. Fed's found wanting here

- Djoko's court coverage is excellent. Cagey of defence (with Fed starting many service points with initiative, there's plenty of need for it) and superb in counter-hitting. Many powerful shots on the move - another feature of his game. Usually, when a player is faced with a ball strong enough to be marked forced error should he miss it, the shot he puts back in play is normal to weak. Djoko tends to put such balls back strongly enough to force errors themselves or at very least, be something more than just a routine shot for his opponent. Difference between two players in this area is very noticeable. Balls that force errors out of Fed come back strongly from Djoko. I'd more credit Djoko being exceptional on move in slightly defensive positions than discredit Fed here

Djoko leads his attack with FHs, especially cc. He can usually outmuscle/outlast/outhit Fed FH-FH. Note Fed with more FH UEs than BH (21 to 16) and FEs (16 to 9). Note Djoko leading on FH winners 17 to 15 (and most of Fed's are inside-out - which aren't a part of FH-FH duels). Its an interesting choice of attack, but he clearly knows what he's doing. Did similar in 2012 WTF final

Djoko also has better of matters BH-BH and its his choice not to play that dynamic more. Fed's BH holds up reasonably well - he swings hard with the drives - but can't get damaging angles with the shot (the feature of his best BH displays). In essence, he's just going toe-to-toe with Djokovic in BH cc slugfests... and that's not likely to go his way. Not bad from Fed on the BH though. If push comes to shove, Djoko could probably take him down BH-BH, with less lively play than the FH stuff

Outdone on movement and off both sides and the damage his serve does kept down to manageable levels, what exactly does that leave Fed with?

Play - Net & Passing
I think Fed plays a smart match. Off the baseline, he gets his offense off with FH inside-outs but his lead offensive play is coming to net

Mixes in serve-volleys off both serves (20 off first serves, 11 off seconds) and successfully (wins 75% off first serves and 64% off seconds). And otherwise, looks to come in to finish points - which was no easy feat or obvious option given Djoko's rifle shot hitting. He wins 18/25 points coming in off rallies. As noted earlier, I think he erred in not coming in more off returns too

The essence of his volleying - is coping with firmly hit passes. Not too many easy volleys, so being kept down to 3 volleying FEs is good. Not the best at putting away points with one shot though - he does leave Djoko with chances to get a good pass off (this would cost him in Aus '16 - but that was very rare, high quality passing display one wouldn't count on happening in any given match)

Djoko errs a bit too with the lobs. Note Federer with 10 OH winners to 12 volleys. Rarely, a hopelessly on the defensive Djoko has no option but to throw up a defensive lob that's smashed away but most of the time, he goes for a lob when a pass was at least as good an option (and for him, a better one). Fed's a good volleyer, but he's a much better smasher… much smarter to test him on the volley than the smash

One of those vain quirks in Djokovic, his penchant for lobbing over passing. Drop shots are another. In general, he overuses both shots - his regulation groundstrokes and passes are far better shots

On flip side, Djoko rarely looks to come in and a large chunk of his approaches are forced ones. Look at the strange stats - just 2 total volley/OH errors, but winning just 14/27 net points

Match Progression
Most of match is comfortable holds. They trade breaks mid-way through the first. Fed breaks first to love with strong passes and returns, Djoko breaks back immediately with a couple of volleying errors from Fed, a mishit regulation groundstroke and one powerful on the run FH winner from Djoko. Fed has 2 break and set points in game 12 that are erased with powerful serves

Flawless tiebreak from Djoko, though Fed does double fault on set point and misses 3/4 first serves. The way the match dynamics are, anytime Fed misses serve, he's likely to be in trouble. Tiebreak aside, he probably has better of first set

Fed probably has the better of second set, in which returner has a few more chances (though there are no breaks). For one thing, he barely misses a first serve (which I suppose hints at his having tightened up in the tiebreak) and has 2 break chances in 12 point game early where Djoko is able to outplay him on

Djoko has his first set point in game 10 against the Fed serve, but misses a makeable FH on the run. Its his only break chance in the set. Fed pushes him in 14 point game the game after, though having just 1 break point (on which he meekly returns a gentle second serve and goes on to make a routine error) after having reached that stage with a pair of well constructed points ending with BH cc and FH inside-out winners

Great tiebreak. Djoko has his nose in front. He comes to net 3 times in first 5 points and looks to be more attacking in it. It pays off as he reaches 6-3 with 3 set points. He has 6 set points in the game - including the first 4, to Fed's 2. Fed does more than hang in on those - baseline play is a wash, and with attacking edge from both players and Fed saves a set point with first FHV winner off a second serve, serve-volley point. And converts his second set point with a 2nd volley, BHV winner of another second serve, serve-volley point. Bold stuff from him

After a pair of tough holds, Djoko breaks in game 3 of third set. 40-15 up, Fed misses a winner attempt FH and Djoko plays two great points to give himself break point. That one ends with the biggest groan inducing shot of the match... Fed hitting a regulation FH at net off a serve-volley point long. Only 1 other game in the set goes to as little as 6 points as Djoko serves out to take set

Fed seems a bit tired in the 4th set. Nothing major - 1/2 a step slower, the serve not as precise. Djokovic dominates it with 2 breaks and another 12 point game he had 2 break points on. I don't think his level rose - he was machine consistent, with an attacking edge to him all match - and continues in same vein

Summing up, great match for 3 sets and not much less in the 4th either. Top drawer from Djokovic - efficient as he is at his best with a more attacking edge than even his 'normal' best and returning some very high quality serving about as well as its possible to. Smart tactics of coming to net by Fed, allied with necessary great serving keeps him about even for the most of the match. Not bad from the baseline either, though outmatched, but inconsistent returning hurting his prospects

Stats for previous years final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2014.654578/
Stats for upcoming US Open final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...jokovic-vs-federer-us-open-final-2015.633330/
Stats for upcoming Aus Open semi - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ederer-australian-open-semifinal-2016.633577/

 

[JaoSousa]

Fed hits more winners, but makes more errors. Novak wins more important points. Close match, Novak wins. Most Fedovic matches for the last 5 years.

 

[ForehandRF]

Fed hits more winners, but makes more errors. Novak wins more important points. Close match, Novak wins. Most Fedovic matches for the last 5 years.

Their only WB F that didn't went to 5.Fed could have lost in straights this one and that would have been unprecedented for him.Since he won his first title at SW19, he never lost a match in straight sets.

 

[RS]

Play - Baseline
Djoko is much the better player off the baseline and is exceptional in his standard

- Very few UEs - just 18. Fed has 37 - though those tend to be on the forced side for being marked unforced but that's because...

- Djoko's 'regulation' groundshots are strong and deep. Ball after ball are hit so, which is the standout feature of his game. But there's more than even that... he also moves Fed side-to-side moderately, especially to the FH side. Fed's found wanting here

- Djoko's court coverage is excellent. Cagey of defence (with Fed starting many service points with initiative, there's plenty of need for it) and superb in counter-hitting. Many powerful shots on the move - another feature of his game. Usually, when a player is faced with a ball strong enough to be marked forced error should he miss it, the shot he puts back in play is normal to weak. Djoko tends to put such balls back strongly enough to force errors themselves or at very least, be something more than just a routine shot for his opponent. Difference between two players in this area is very noticeable. Balls that force errors out of Fed come back strongly from Djoko. I'd more credit Djoko being exceptional on move in slightly defensive positions than discredit Fed here

Djoko leads his attack with FHs, especially cc. He can usually outmuscle/outlast/outhit Fed FH-FH. Note Fed with more FH UEs than BH (21 to 16) and FEs (16 to 9). Note Djoko leading on FH winners 17 to 15 (and most of Fed's are inside-out - which aren't a part of FH-FH duels). Its an interesting choice of attack, but he clearly knows what he's doing. Did similar in 2012 WTF final

Djoko also has better of matters BH-BH and its his choice not to play that dynamic more. Fed's BH holds up reasonably well - he swings hard with the drives - but can't get damaging angles with the shot (the feature of his best BH displays). In essence, he's just going toe-to-toe with Djokovic in BH cc slugfests... and that's not likely to go his way. Not bad from Fed on the BH though. If push comes to shove, Djoko could probably take him down BH-BH, with less lively play than the FH stuff

Outdone on movement and off both sides and the damage his serve does kept down to manageable levels, what exactly does that leave Fed with?

Play - Net & Passing
I think Fed plays a smart match. Off the baseline, he gets his offense off with FH inside-outs but his lead offensive play is coming to net

Mixes in serve-volleys off both serves (20 off first serves, 11 off seconds) and successfully (wins 75% off first serves and 64% off seconds). And otherwise, looks to come in to finish points - which was no easy feat or obvious option given Djoko's rifle shot hitting. He wins 18/25 points coming in off rallies. As noted earlier, I think he erred in not coming in more off returns too

The essence of his volleying - is coping with firmly hit passes. Not too many easy volleys, so being kept down to 3 volleying FEs is good. Not the best at putting away points with one shot though - he does leave Djoko with chances to get a good pass off (this would cost him in Aus '16 - but that was very rare, high quality passing display one wouldn't count on happening in any given match)

Djoko errs a bit too with the lobs. Note Federer with 10 OH winners to 12 volleys. Rarely, a hopelessly on the defensive Djoko has no option but to throw up a defensive lob that's smashed away but most of the time, he goes for a lob when a pass was at least as good an option (and for him, a better one). Fed's a good volleyer, but he's a much better smasher… much smarter to test him on the volley than the smash

One of those vain quirks in Djokovic, his penchant for lobbing over passing. Drop shots are another. In general, he overuses both shots - his regulation groundstrokes and passes are far better shots

On flip side, Djoko rarely looks to come in and a large chunk of his approaches are forced ones. Look at the strange stats - just 2 total volley/OH errors, but winning just 14/27 net points

Match Progression
Most of match is comfortable holds. They trade breaks mid-way through the first. Fed breaks first to love with strong passes and returns, Djoko breaks back immediately with a couple of volleying errors from Fed, a mishit regulation groundstroke and one powerful on the run FH winner from Djoko. Fed has 2 break and set points in game 12 that are erased with powerful serves

Flawless tiebreak from Djoko, though Fed does double fault on set point and misses 3/4 first serves. The way the match dynamics are, anytime Fed misses serve, he's likely to be in trouble. Tiebreak aside, he probably has better of first set

Fed probably has the better of second set, in which returner has a few more chances (though there are no breaks). For one thing, he barely misses a first serve (which I suppose hints at his having tightened up in the tiebreak) and has 2 break chances in 12 point game early where Djoko is able to outplay him on

Djoko has his first set point in game 10 against the Fed serve, but misses a makeable FH on the run. Its his only break chance in the set. Fed pushes him in 14 point game the game after, though having just 1 break point (on which he meekly returns a gentle second serve and goes on to make a routine error) after having reached that stage with a pair of well constructed points ending with BH cc and FH inside-out winners

Great tiebreak. Djoko has his nose in front. He comes to net 3 times in first 5 points and looks to be more attacking in it. It pays off as he reaches 6-3 with 3 set points. He has 6 set points in the game - including the first 4, to Fed's 2. Fed does more than hang in on those - baseline play is a wash, and with attacking edge from both players and Fed saves a set point with first FHV winner off a second serve, serve-volley point. And converts his second set point with a 2nd volley, BHV winner of another second serve, serve-volley point. Bold stuff from him

After a pair of tough holds, Djoko breaks in game 3 of third set. 40-15 up, Fed misses a winner attempt FH and Djoko plays two great points to give himself break point. That one ends with the biggest groan inducing shot of the match... Fed hitting a regulation FH at net off a serve-volley point long. Only 1 other game in the set goes to as little as 6 points as Djoko serves out to take set

Fed seems a bit tired in the 4th set. Nothing major - 1/2 a step slower, the serve not as precise. Djokovic dominates it with 2 breaks and another 12 point game he had 2 break points on. I don't think his level rose - he was machine consistent, with an attacking edge to him all match - and continues in same vein

Summing up, great match for 3 sets and not much less in the 4th either. Top drawer from Djokovic - efficient as he is at his best with a more attacking edge than even his 'normal' best and returning some very high quality serving about as well as its possible to. Smart tactics of coming to net by Fed, allied with necessary great serving keeps him about even for the most of the match. Not bad from the baseline either, though outmatched, but inconsistent returning hurting his prospects

Stats for previous years final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2014.654578/
Stats for upcoming US Open final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...jokovic-vs-federer-us-open-final-2015.633330/
Stats for upcoming Aus Open semi - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ederer-australian-open-semifinal-2016.633577/

Would you agree this is Novak best match on grass vs a moderate or better playing opponent?

 

[RF-18]

Djoko is much the stronger player and leads with FH.

Unreal how underrated Djokovic FH is. This is amazing against an in form Federer on grass that his FH is the one overwhelming Roger's. Fantastic stuff.

Would you say this was Djokovic strongest performance on grass?

 

[Newballsplease872]

Like many of his losses in this matchup,Federer was not able to attack Djokovics 2nd serve.

This is definitely Djokovics best performance on grass and arguably among the top-10 best on grass

 

[BeatlesFan]

This is amazing against an in form Federer on grass

Fed's level in the final was not "in form." He played his best tennis in the semis against Murray and just didn't bring it in the final. For me, this is Djokovic's absolute peak level on grass. Even had Roger played an exceptional match, his mental issues with Novak would probably have surfaced and he would have lost anyhow.

 

[KINGROGER]

Possibly one of the worst matches I’ve seen Federer play on grass, aside from Anderson and stakovsky (sp?)

As well as Djokovic playing superbly of course

 

[ForehandCross]

Unreal how underrated Djokovic FH is. This is amazing against an in form Federer on grass that his FH is the one overwhelming Roger's. Fantastic stuff.

Would you say this was Djokovic strongest performance on grass?

This was hands down the best version of Djokovic on Grass.

Only younger Federer would stand a chance against the kind of form Djokovic brought.

People forget how absolutely insane Djokovic's returning was. Mind you Murray is a great returner and Federer serve blew him away. But Djokovic just made it look so ordinary.

 

[ForehandRF]

This was hands down the best version of Djokovic on Grass.

Only younger Federer would stand a chance against the kind of form Djokovic brought.

People forget how absolutely insane Djokovic's returning was. Mind you Murray is a great returner and Federer serve blew him away. But Djokovic just made it look so ordinary.

Fed didn't served as well in the final though.Murray was unlucky that day because Fed put a serve clinic.

 

[NoleFam]

Fed didn't served as well in the final though.Murray was unlucky that day because Fed put a serve clinic.

Federer put on a serve clinic but Murray served pretty well himself. Both served well above 70%. Federer served about 67% in the final, which is actually pretty good, but the problem with Murray is he wasn't able to win as many points as Djokovic did against Federer's 1st and 2nd serve. His returning was off the charts.

 

[Breakpointerer]

Djokovic's best grass performance?

 

[Jonesy]

Not Djokovic best grass performance.

 

[NoleFam]

Djokovic's best grass performance?

Yea

 

[RS]

Y[

Novak Djokovic beat Roger Federer 7-6(1), 6-7 (10), 6-4, 6-3 in the Wimbledon final, 2015 on grass

Djokovic would go onto win the next 3 Slams - including beating Federer at the next two - to complete a non-calendar year Grand Slam. He was also the reigning Australian Open champion and French Open finalist. Federer had been going for a record breaking 8th Wimbledon title - which he would eventually snag in 2017

Djokovic won 148 points, Federer 138

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (96/145) 66%
- 1st serve points won (71/96) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (29/49) 59%
- Aces 13 (1 second serve), Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (48/145) 33%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (94/141) 67%
- 1st serve points won (70/94) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (23/47) 49%
- Aces 14, Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/141) 31%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 6%

Federer served...
- to FH 45%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 94 (39 FH, 55 BH)
- 5 Winners (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 25 Forced (14 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (94/138) 68%

Federer made...
- 96 (36 FH, 60 BH), including 2 runaround FHs and 5 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 32 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (3 FH, 8 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 21 Forced (12 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (96/144) 67%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/10 (7 games)
Federer 1/7 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 29 (17 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV, 2 OH)
Federer 41 (15 FH, 4 BH, 4 FHV, 8 BHV, 9 OH, 1 BHOH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc (2 passes, 1 return), 3 dtl (1 return, 1 running-down-drop-shot at net), 5 inside-out (2 passes - 1 at net), 2 inside-in, 1 longline and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 2 cc, 5 dtl (3 returns - 1 of them a pass - and 1 running-down-drop-volley at net) and 1 inside-out pass

Federer's FHs - 1 cc return (which Djokovic misjudged and left), 3 dtl (1 pass), 1 dtl/inside-out, 8 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 inside-out pass and 1 lob

- 12 from serve-volley points
- 5 first volleys (2 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 7 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH, 1 BHOH)

- 2 from return-approach points (2 BHV)
- 1 FHV was a swinging shot, a pass and not a net point

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 52
- 19 Unforced (8 FH, 10 BH, 1 OH)
- 33 Forced (12 FH, 20 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.9

Federer 68
- 40 Unforced (21 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 28 Forced (16 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 14/27 (52%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Federer was...
- 43/61 (70%) at net, including...
- 22/31 (71%) serve-volleying, comprising..
- 15/20 (75%) off 1st serve and...
- 7/11 (64%) off 2nd serve
---
- 3/5 (60%) return-approaching
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
By far the best of the pairs 4 matches at the event and but for a slight (and its only slight) drop in Federer's level in 4th set, a great match. The main key to the match are the returns - particularly strong from Djokovic and some not great stuff from Federer. From the baseline, Djoko is much the stronger player and leads with FH. Federer uses net play (including serve-volleying off both serves) as his chief line of attack and is very successful with that. Its also largely a who-plays-the-big-points-better match... and Djoko is particularly clutch. In addition to maintaining a very high level of play throughout the match

Serving & Returning
Match is essentially a serve-dominated one, as grass matches tend to be. Generally, on this surface and with good servers, result tends to center around who'll have a bad service game first. While that's not untrue here, in case of Federer serving/Djokovic returning, it feels as much like when Djokovic will have a good returning game

Look at basic first serve stats. First serves in, Djoko's at 66%, Fed 67%... and both win 74% of those points. Fed's serve is a lot stronger - results being about equal is a testament particularly to Djoko's superiority on return and lesser extent, in play

Djoko's first serve is almost always strong but the placement varies from good to normal. Wide strong serves tend to go unreturned (note near identical aces/service winners - Djoko with 13/3, Fed 14/3), credit Djoko for those. But there's a bundle of highly makeable strong serves that Fed can swing at without moving that also don't come back. Black mark against Fed's returning for those... but it seems to be a general feature of his game around this period rather than indicating a bad day. Simply, he's just not a very consistent returner. Andy Roddick on commentary notes Djoko's serve doesn't have much spin on it and is slightly surprised to Fed has as much trouble with it as he does

Where things really go into negatives for Fed on return is against second serves. Note the 11 UEs. The odd good second serve from Djoko but for the most part, his second serves are normal if not weak, mid to high 80mph's range and safely placed in middle of box. Fed misses some of these returns and neither tries to particularly attack them - and mostly fails with moderate attack attempts

In light of his putting faith in net play and serve-volleying (he comes in 61 times in match - 31 of those serve-volleys) in the match, I thought Fed would have been best served attacking second serves via chip-charge returns. He only does so 5 times (winning 3) and rarely is Djoko's serve so strong as to make the play a difficult one. In other matches between the two, his not doing so is more understandable when Djoko has just a slight lead from the baseline and the baseline being Fed's preferred place to play from. Here though, Djoko's a lot better from the back... and staying there to exchange groundies isn't smart

Fed seems to have realized this on service games... why not on return, where he has little to lose anyway?

Clutch serving from Djoko too. When in trouble, he tends to find his best first serves. When he misses that, quality of second serves are the same mixed bag as general

But for his misses, Fed returns well too. Its not unusual for Fed to put returns in play relatively softly. Here though, whatever he does get back, he gets back with depth or places well. Its not getting enough back that's his problem. With the considerable difference between the two players' serving strength, Djoko leading unreturned serves 33% to 31% doesn't bode well for Fed

Djoko though, returns splendidly. Federer serves very well - normal for him - strong first serves, strong second serves. Generally, he seems to up his second serving against Djoko, probably wary of what he knows tends to happen to weak second serves - and that's true here

Djoko though, seems to read the serve well (he has good days and not good days in this area against Fed - usually the latter), and is moving into position at last stage of serving motion. Manages to get a high number of wide serves back in play, and virtually everything not wide comes back. Even some strong wide serves are returned strong and deep down the middle... and the bulk of not-wide serves are. And 5 return winners - 4 only 1 of them a pass - thrown in... terrific returning from Djokovic against some high quality serving from Federer

A patterns I'm seeing in this match up is Djoko forcing bulk of return errors from Fed's FH. He found something there... I'd have thought there's virtually nothing Fed does better of BH than FH return

How would you compare Djokovic here to Nadal in the 08 final vs Federer?

 

[NoleFam]

I like the OP's analysis of matches and his insight. I mostly agree with the analysis here except about when it comes to Djokovic's serve versus Federer's. I would say before in their careers that Federer's serve was a lot stronger but by 2015 Federer's serve was only stronger, but not significantly. That's how Djokovic was able to dictate this match the way he did, on both serve and return. His average 1st serve speed was also higher, 119 mph versus 117 mph. When it came to the 2nd serve, Federer went after it, even more so than he did against Murray, averaging at 102 mph. Djokovic averaged at 96 mph, which wasn't even his highest average this tournament, but still a really good 2nd serve where he mixed it up pretty well. I have to disagree with the idea that his second serve would fall in the normal to weak category.

 

[Waspsting]

Would you agree this is Novak best match on grass vs a moderate or better playing opponent?

Would you say this was Djokovic strongest performance on grass?

Djokovic's best grass performance?

Its the best I recall seeing from him or have statt-ted (which means watched, very, very carefully)

Generally, I'd say if a guy like Federer serves well on grass, there's not a whole lot returner can do but poke as many balls back in play as possible - and hope Fed has an off day in play

For example, Fed's win over Djokovic in 2012. Don't think Djoko returned badly... he returned about as well as he was allowed to - and Fed swept him away

Fed serves about as well here, but Djokovic has an exceptionally good day returning

In play, in the style he plays, he's almost flawless. Beat down type baselining... not flagrantly going for winners, but ball after ball after ball hit deep and hard. with more moving-opponent around stuff than even his best performances to boot. And defensively, he's moving to, running down stuff when he's on the receiving end and hitting those back deep and hard too. Like a wall you hit against but which sends the ball back harder than you sent it

Generally, he does tend to get error prone when being flagrantly attacking. This happened in '12 WTF final against Fed. In '14 Wimbledon final, he tended to miss moderately attacking stuff

Unreal how underrated Djokovic FH is. This is amazing against an in form Federer on grass that his FH is the one overwhelming Roger's. Fantastic stuff.

Think it doesn't get looked at too closely for 2 reasons -

a) lot of guys with strong FHs, so its just another one
b) relative to the field, his BH stands out more as obviously superior

His FHs been at least as good as Fed's for nearly a decade now and movement gap between them was probably at its largest in 2015. Consistent, beat-down style usually won't get celebrated the way Fed's sublime shotmaking style does... but the on the often overlooked errors side of things, Djoko's has had big advantage over Fed's

How would you compare Djokovic here to Nadal in the 08 final vs Federer?

Djoko has significant advantages in both serve and even more so on return... Nadal's serve being relatively ordinary and while his returning was good in its consistency, this returning exho from Djoko is a GOAT candidate showing

In play, both are great showings. Djoko as outlined above, near flawless in his style. Nadal as I recall, was very commanding and bossy, especially with FH... and he was up against a significantly faster, more explosive hitting Federer

I'd say the comparative serve-return advantage seals it in Djoko's favour. Federer probably serves even better here than he did in '08 (and he returned like a goof on key points in '08 so not too much difference in oppositions returning)

I would say before in their careers that Federer's serve was a lot stronger but by 2015 Federer's serve was only stronger, but not significantly. That's how Djokovic was able to dictate this match the way he did, on both serve and return. His average 1st serve speed was also higher, 119 mph versus 117 mph. When it came to the 2nd serve, Federer went after it, even more so than he did against Murray, averaging at 102 mph. Djokovic averaged at 96 mph, which wasn't even his highest average this tournament, but still a really good 2nd serve where he mixed it up pretty well. I have to disagree with the idea that his second serve would fall in the normal to weak category.

Put i this way... if Fed had to return his own serve... I'm sure he'd have significantly higher unreturned serve rate.

And if Djoko had to return his... I'd not only expect significantly higher return rate, but also much more authortitive returns, particularly in terms of depth. Error forcing stuff to the baseline, his forte

Very little between pace in first serves as your numbers indicate, but I was struck by difference in placement. Virtually, every Fed serve needs sideways movement to reach. Healthy chunk of Djoko's don't

This is even more evident on second serves. Almost all of Fed's need sideways movement to reach and/or are deep (I think he was conscious of needing to do something extra with second serve against Djokovic). Most of Djoko's require no movement at all... many are short, good chunk of them are just in middle of the box

I'd call them 'regular second serves'. The kind you mark 'unforced error' to by default if returner misses them (calling them weak might be a step too far)

Fed's? on grass, I'd mark most of what he sent down in this match as forced

Common pattern in their match up... a small number of Djoko's first serves being marked 'unforced' and a small number of Fed's seconds being marked 'forced'. The latter is particularly true in this match, but more broadly, all their Wimbledon matches

 

[RS]

Its the best I recall seeing from him or have statt-ted (which means watched, very, very carefully)

Generally, I'd say if a guy like Federer serves well on grass, there's not a whole lot returner can do but poke as many balls back in play as possible - and hope Fed has an off day in play

For example, Fed's win over Djokovic in 2012. Don't think Djoko returned badly... he returned about as well as he was allowed to - and Fed swept him away

Fed serves about as well here, but Djokovic has an exceptionally good day returning

In play, in the style he plays, he's almost flawless. Beat down type baselining... not flagrantly going for winners, but ball after ball after ball hit deep and hard. with more moving-opponent around stuff than even his best performances to boot. And defensively, he's moving to, running down stuff when he's on the receiving end and hitting those back deep and hard too. Like a wall you hit against but which sends the ball back harder than you sent it

Generally, he does tend to get error prone when being flagrantly attacking. This happened in '12 WTF final against Fed. In '14 Wimbledon final, he tended to miss moderately attacking stuff




Think it doesn't get looked at too closely for 2 reasons -

a) lot of guys with strong FHs, so its just another one
b) relative to the field, his BH stands out more as obviously superior

His FHs been at least as good as Fed's for nearly a decade now and movement gap between them was probably at its largest in 2015. Consistent, beat-down style usually won't get celebrated the way Fed's sublime shotmaking style does... but the on the often overlooked errors side of things, Djoko's has had big advantage over Fed's




Djoko has significant advantages in both serve and even more so on return... Nadal's serve being relatively ordinary and while his returning was good in its consistency, this returning exho from Djoko is a GOAT candidate showing

In play, both are great showings. Djoko as outlined above, near flawless in his style. Nadal as I recall, was very commanding and bossy, especially with FH... and he was up against a significantly faster, more explosive hitting Federer

I'd say the comparative serve-return advantage seals it in Djoko's favour. Federer probably serves even better here than he did in '08 (and he returned like a goof on key points in '08 so not too much difference in oppositions returning)



Put i this way... if Fed had to return his own serve... I'm sure he'd have significantly higher unreturned serve rate.

And if Djoko had to return his... I'd not only expect significantly higher return rate, but also much more authortitive returns, particularly in terms of depth. Error forcing stuff to the baseline, his forte

Very little between pace in first serves as your numbers indicate, but I was struck by difference in placement. Virtually, every Fed serve needs sideways movement to reach. Healthy chunk of Djoko's don't

This is even more evident on second serves. Almost all of Fed's need sideways movement to reach and/or are deep (I think he was conscious of needing to do something extra with second serve against Djokovic). Most of Djoko's require no movement at all... many are short, good chunk of them are just in middle of the box

I'd call them 'regular second serves'. The kind you mark 'unforced error' to by default if returner misses them (calling them weak might be a step too far)

Fed's? on grass, I'd mark most of what he sent down in this match as forced

Common pattern in their match up... a small number of Djoko's first serves being marked 'unforced' and a small number of Fed's seconds being marked 'forced'. The latter is particularly true in this match, but more broadly, all their Wimbledon matches

Nice. I think Federer served better in 2008 than here and Nadal returns very well even though not as good as Djokovic. I agree about returning. 2015 better at the net more closing down but 2008 better movement and FH as you said.
Nadal of 2008 would have the adavantage of Djokovic 2015 off the ground and maybe slightly movement wise while Djokovic would have the better ROS and cheap serving and points ending. I think we are look at 5 sets which ever way.

 

[ElisRF]

Play - Baseline
Djoko is much the better player off the baseline and is exceptional in his standard

- Very few UEs - just 18. Fed has 37 - though those tend to be on the forced side for being marked unforced but that's because...

- Djoko's 'regulation' groundshots are strong and deep. Ball after ball are hit so, which is the standout feature of his game. But there's more than even that... he also moves Fed side-to-side moderately, especially to the FH side. Fed's found wanting here

- Djoko's court coverage is excellent. Cagey of defence (with Fed starting many service points with initiative, there's plenty of need for it) and superb in counter-hitting. Many powerful shots on the move - another feature of his game. Usually, when a player is faced with a ball strong enough to be marked forced error should he miss it, the shot he puts back in play is normal to weak. Djoko tends to put such balls back strongly enough to force errors themselves or at very least, be something more than just a routine shot for his opponent. Difference between two players in this area is very noticeable. Balls that force errors out of Fed come back strongly from Djoko. I'd more credit Djoko being exceptional on move in slightly defensive positions than discredit Fed here

Djoko leads his attack with FHs, especially cc. He can usually outmuscle/outlast/outhit Fed FH-FH. Note Fed with more FH UEs than BH (21 to 16) and FEs (16 to 9). Note Djoko leading on FH winners 17 to 15 (and most of Fed's are inside-out - which aren't a part of FH-FH duels). Its an interesting choice of attack, but he clearly knows what he's doing. Did similar in 2012 WTF final

Djoko also has better of matters BH-BH and its his choice not to play that dynamic more. Fed's BH holds up reasonably well - he swings hard with the drives - but can't get damaging angles with the shot (the feature of his best BH displays). In essence, he's just going toe-to-toe with Djokovic in BH cc slugfests... and that's not likely to go his way. Not bad from Fed on the BH though. If push comes to shove, Djoko could probably take him down BH-BH, with less lively play than the FH stuff

Outdone on movement and off both sides and the damage his serve does kept down to manageable levels, what exactly does that leave Fed with?

Play - Net & Passing
I think Fed plays a smart match. Off the baseline, he gets his offense off with FH inside-outs but his lead offensive play is coming to net

Mixes in serve-volleys off both serves (20 off first serves, 11 off seconds) and successfully (wins 75% off first serves and 64% off seconds). And otherwise, looks to come in to finish points - which was no easy feat or obvious option given Djoko's rifle shot hitting. He wins 18/25 points coming in off rallies. As noted earlier, I think he erred in not coming in more off returns too

The essence of his volleying - is coping with firmly hit passes. Not too many easy volleys, so being kept down to 3 volleying FEs is good. Not the best at putting away points with one shot though - he does leave Djoko with chances to get a good pass off (this would cost him in Aus '16 - but that was very rare, high quality passing display one wouldn't count on happening in any given match)

Djoko errs a bit too with the lobs. Note Federer with 10 OH winners to 12 volleys. Rarely, a hopelessly on the defensive Djoko has no option but to throw up a defensive lob that's smashed away but most of the time, he goes for a lob when a pass was at least as good an option (and for him, a better one). Fed's a good volleyer, but he's a much better smasher… much smarter to test him on the volley than the smash

One of those vain quirks in Djokovic, his penchant for lobbing over passing. Drop shots are another. In general, he overuses both shots - his regulation groundstrokes and passes are far better shots

On flip side, Djoko rarely looks to come in and a large chunk of his approaches are forced ones. Look at the strange stats - just 2 total volley/OH errors, but winning just 14/27 net points

Match Progression
Most of match is comfortable holds. They trade breaks mid-way through the first. Fed breaks first to love with strong passes and returns, Djoko breaks back immediately with a couple of volleying errors from Fed, a mishit regulation groundstroke and one powerful on the run FH winner from Djoko. Fed has 2 break and set points in game 12 that are erased with powerful serves

Flawless tiebreak from Djoko, though Fed does double fault on set point and misses 3/4 first serves. The way the match dynamics are, anytime Fed misses serve, he's likely to be in trouble. Tiebreak aside, he probably has better of first set

Fed probably has the better of second set, in which returner has a few more chances (though there are no breaks). For one thing, he barely misses a first serve (which I suppose hints at his having tightened up in the tiebreak) and has 2 break chances in 12 point game early where Djoko is able to outplay him on

Djoko has his first set point in game 10 against the Fed serve, but misses a makeable FH on the run. Its his only break chance in the set. Fed pushes him in 14 point game the game after, though having just 1 break point (on which he meekly returns a gentle second serve and goes on to make a routine error) after having reached that stage with a pair of well constructed points ending with BH cc and FH inside-out winners

Great tiebreak. Djoko has his nose in front. He comes to net 3 times in first 5 points and looks to be more attacking in it. It pays off as he reaches 6-3 with 3 set points. He has 6 set points in the game - including the first 4, to Fed's 2. Fed does more than hang in on those - baseline play is a wash, and with attacking edge from both players and Fed saves a set point with first FHV winner off a second serve, serve-volley point. And converts his second set point with a 2nd volley, BHV winner of another second serve, serve-volley point. Bold stuff from him

After a pair of tough holds, Djoko breaks in game 3 of third set. 40-15 up, Fed misses a winner attempt FH and Djoko plays two great points to give himself break point. That one ends with the biggest groan inducing shot of the match... Fed hitting a regulation FH at net off a serve-volley point long. Only 1 other game in the set goes to as little as 6 points as Djoko serves out to take set

Fed seems a bit tired in the 4th set. Nothing major - 1/2 a step slower, the serve not as precise. Djokovic dominates it with 2 breaks and another 12 point game he had 2 break points on. I don't think his level rose - he was machine consistent, with an attacking edge to him all match - and continues in same vein

Summing up, great match for 3 sets and not much less in the 4th either. Top drawer from Djokovic - efficient as he is at his best with a more attacking edge than even his 'normal' best and returning some very high quality serving about as well as its possible to. Smart tactics of coming to net by Fed, allied with necessary great serving keeps him about even for the most of the match. Not bad from the baseline either, though outmatched, but inconsistent returning hurting his prospects

Stats for previous years final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2014.654578/
Stats for upcoming US Open final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...jokovic-vs-federer-us-open-final-2015.633330/
Stats for upcoming Aus Open semi - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ederer-australian-open-semifinal-2016.633577/

I don't agree you could call set 4 a great set of play from Federer but great analysis as always.