Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the Paris final, 2021 on indoor hard court
It was Djokovic's record extending 6th title at the event and by reaching the final, he sealed his record breaking 7th year end number 1 finish. Medvedev had been the defending champion, was ranked 2 and had had an outside chance of finishing the year ranked 1. The two had previously met at both Australian Open (Djokovic won) and US Open finals (Medvedev won) earlier in the year
Djokovic won 94 points, Medvedev 80
Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (57/86) 66%
- 1st serve points won (45/57) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (9/29) 31%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/86) 21%
Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (51/88) 58%
- 1st serve points won (30/51) 59%
- 2nd serve points won (18/37) 49%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/88) 23%
Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 52%
- to BH 44%
- to Body 4%
Medvedev served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 4%
Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 65 (27 FH, 38 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 3 Winners (1 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (2 FH, 6 BH)
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (65/85) 76%
Medvedev made...
- 66 (35 FH, 31 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (66/84) 79%
Break Points
Djokovic 5/6 (6 games)
Medvedev 3/10 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 32 (12 FH, 3 BH, 8 FHV, 5 BHV, 4 OH)
Medvedev 25 (8 FH, 13 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 's FHs - 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl at net, 5 inside-out (1 runaround return), 4 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 dtl, 1 inside-in return and 1 longline return (that Medvedev left)
- 9 from serve-volley points (6 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH), all first volleys
- 1 other FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out, 1 can reasonably be called an OH and 1 BHV was a lob
Medvedev's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline and 2 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net (1 pass)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass, 1 at net), 6 dtl (1 pass at net), 3 drop shots, 1 lob and 1 running-down-drop-shot drop shot at net
- 1 FHV was a non-net, swinging shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 33
- 29 Unforced (14 FH, 14 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.3
Medvedev 41
- 22 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH pass attempt & 1 non-net swinging FHV
- 19 Forced (10 FH, 9 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.6
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 31/41 (76%) at net, including...
- 16/19 (84%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 15/18 (83%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 2/3 (67%) forced back/retreated
Medvedev was...
- 9/12 (75%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back
Match Report
Excellent match as well as a complicated and interesting one. Djokovic serves particularly well and throws in plenty of serve-volleying and net play to override Medvedev's slight superiority from the baseline to come out ahead on a slow court
Drastic differences in basic stats speak to role of the serve and Djoko's serve-volleying, but also raises questions for which there are no obvious answers.
- 1st serve points won - Djoko 79%, Med 59%
- 2nd serve points won - Djoko 31%, Med 49%
Djoko +20% on first serve points won, Med +18% on seconds. These are figures you see when the 1st serve points leader has much stronger serve and 2nd serve points leader has much better court game. Which isn't the case with Djoko and Med - in general (if anything, closer to opposite), or in this match (which is more complicated)
48% difference in points won across service types for Djoko is humongous. Probably the largest I've seen for him. Again, usually this is an indicator of the player being highly dependent on the serve shot alone. A 'serve-bot' who's hugely outmatched in rallies.
In that case, the player would likely also fare poorly on return points, but Djoko's done handily. Neither Med's 1st or 2nd serve points is particularly impressive - though he's done much better than the very poor Djoko showing on second serves
Why is Djoko doing so poorly on his 2nd serve points, when he's good enough to do well on all return points?
- its not because of double faults. He has just 2 (7% of his 2nd serves) to Med's 3 (8%)
- its not because his 2nd serve is weak or Med returns particularly well against it. Djoko's 2nd serve is normal at worst - a neutral point starter, not easy to attack and not difficult to put in play and Med returns it consistently but not damagingly. Position is 50-50 after the return
- only explanation that makes sense is simply, Med playing much better on the points in question. Djoko's 2nd serve points are baseline points with 50-50 prospects after the return. And Med's the better baseliner - QED
The contradiction is that prospects are same on Med's 2nd serve points. Similar of quality to Djoko's and while Djoko takes returns earlier than Med does, he's not taking charge of points. Again, baseline rallies start neutrally with about 50-50 prospects
Given the serves and returns in question, one would expect the same player (whoever that is) to win similar lot of both players 2nd serve points
Instead, Med wins 69% of one grounp and 49% of the other. Its odd and no solid explanation for it but at least picture emerging from it points in a particular direction: Starting from neutral position on the baseline, Medvedev is the better player
But this is again somewhat contradicted by Med's first serve points. He serves typically big, but its a slow court and Djokovic is Djokovic when it comes to the return and doesn't miss much. Naturally, some advantage for Med from the serve, but not too much. In that light 59% points won is low for him, given he's apparently the better court player. That + even small advantage accrued through the serve should be good for higher yield of points won
Credit Djoko on the first serve return. It tends to get taken for granted, but very consistent stuff from Djoko. Its a comfy court to return on, but still. Return rate of 76% (or keeping Med down to low 23% unretunred serves) is job well done. Med retains initiative on third ball and from such starting position, 59% points won isn't a good outcome for him and a very good one for Djoko. And doesn't fit what's happening on both players 2nd serve points, but then again, what's happening on the 2nd serve points doesn't fit with itself either
The only readily explainable basic stat is Djoko winning very high 79% first serve points. For starters, he serves exceptionally well. He's got 6 aces to the generally bigger serving Med's 7 (or 11% of first serves, to Med's 14%). When he's not serving aces, he's moving Med around all over the place with precise placment
11/12 Med return errors have been marked FEs - and where he's standing he can comfortably reach what would be wide serves to normal position. By contrast, just 5/13 Djoko return errors are FEs
Second and less importantly, there's the serve-volleying. Djoko's 15/18 or 83% serve-volleying off first serves. Not serve-volleying (sans aces), he's still 24/33 or 73%... both figures well higher than Med's 59% first serve points won (which falls to just 52% sans aces)
In short, however you slice it, Djokovic doing much, much better than Medvedev on first serve points - with both aces and unreturned serves in same ball park. Serve-volleying or not serve-volleying... it doesn't matter
Straight forward conclusions to be derieved -
a) Djoko serving very well (as evidenced by aces and points won)
b) Med returning steadily (as evidenced by high return rate of 79%)
c) ... so Djoko doing very well - starting on baseline or serve-volleying - when he has advantageous starting position
That's quite a mess to start with (and we're just getting started) so brief summary
- Djoko serving very well to give himself strong starting point to rallies - and very good at nursing that through to winning points (covers Djoko's first serve points)... good for Djoko
- Djoko returning steadily to keep in check Med's initiative within reason - and Med not so good at nursing whatever advantage he has to winning points (covers Med's first serve points)... good for Djoko
- Med leading neutrally started rallies - though in combinations that defy simple explanation and with significant variance - on both players 2nd serve points... good for Med
Play - Baseline & Net
Baseline play varies some across the match. Initially, Med outlasts Djoko to win bulk of points. Djoko is more often in lead positon, Med reacting. Djoko doesn't have the power to finish Med off from the back and Med moves well to defend and counter-punch as needed until Djoko gives up the errors. And Med's better at routine, keeping ball in play stuff to win majority of who-blinks-first points (at the start anyway)
Neutral UEs read Djoko 12, Med 11
It was Djokovic's record extending 6th title at the event and by reaching the final, he sealed his record breaking 7th year end number 1 finish. Medvedev had been the defending champion, was ranked 2 and had had an outside chance of finishing the year ranked 1. The two had previously met at both Australian Open (Djokovic won) and US Open finals (Medvedev won) earlier in the year
Djokovic won 94 points, Medvedev 80
Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (57/86) 66%
- 1st serve points won (45/57) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (9/29) 31%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/86) 21%
Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (51/88) 58%
- 1st serve points won (30/51) 59%
- 2nd serve points won (18/37) 49%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/88) 23%
Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 52%
- to BH 44%
- to Body 4%
Medvedev served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 4%
Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 65 (27 FH, 38 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 3 Winners (1 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (2 FH, 6 BH)
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (65/85) 76%
Medvedev made...
- 66 (35 FH, 31 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (66/84) 79%
Break Points
Djokovic 5/6 (6 games)
Medvedev 3/10 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 32 (12 FH, 3 BH, 8 FHV, 5 BHV, 4 OH)
Medvedev 25 (8 FH, 13 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 's FHs - 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl at net, 5 inside-out (1 runaround return), 4 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 dtl, 1 inside-in return and 1 longline return (that Medvedev left)
- 9 from serve-volley points (6 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH), all first volleys
- 1 other FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out, 1 can reasonably be called an OH and 1 BHV was a lob
Medvedev's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline and 2 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net (1 pass)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass, 1 at net), 6 dtl (1 pass at net), 3 drop shots, 1 lob and 1 running-down-drop-shot drop shot at net
- 1 FHV was a non-net, swinging shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 33
- 29 Unforced (14 FH, 14 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.3
Medvedev 41
- 22 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH pass attempt & 1 non-net swinging FHV
- 19 Forced (10 FH, 9 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.6
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 31/41 (76%) at net, including...
- 16/19 (84%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 15/18 (83%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 2/3 (67%) forced back/retreated
Medvedev was...
- 9/12 (75%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back
Match Report
Excellent match as well as a complicated and interesting one. Djokovic serves particularly well and throws in plenty of serve-volleying and net play to override Medvedev's slight superiority from the baseline to come out ahead on a slow court
Drastic differences in basic stats speak to role of the serve and Djoko's serve-volleying, but also raises questions for which there are no obvious answers.
- 1st serve points won - Djoko 79%, Med 59%
- 2nd serve points won - Djoko 31%, Med 49%
Djoko +20% on first serve points won, Med +18% on seconds. These are figures you see when the 1st serve points leader has much stronger serve and 2nd serve points leader has much better court game. Which isn't the case with Djoko and Med - in general (if anything, closer to opposite), or in this match (which is more complicated)
48% difference in points won across service types for Djoko is humongous. Probably the largest I've seen for him. Again, usually this is an indicator of the player being highly dependent on the serve shot alone. A 'serve-bot' who's hugely outmatched in rallies.
In that case, the player would likely also fare poorly on return points, but Djoko's done handily. Neither Med's 1st or 2nd serve points is particularly impressive - though he's done much better than the very poor Djoko showing on second serves
Why is Djoko doing so poorly on his 2nd serve points, when he's good enough to do well on all return points?
- its not because of double faults. He has just 2 (7% of his 2nd serves) to Med's 3 (8%)
- its not because his 2nd serve is weak or Med returns particularly well against it. Djoko's 2nd serve is normal at worst - a neutral point starter, not easy to attack and not difficult to put in play and Med returns it consistently but not damagingly. Position is 50-50 after the return
- only explanation that makes sense is simply, Med playing much better on the points in question. Djoko's 2nd serve points are baseline points with 50-50 prospects after the return. And Med's the better baseliner - QED
The contradiction is that prospects are same on Med's 2nd serve points. Similar of quality to Djoko's and while Djoko takes returns earlier than Med does, he's not taking charge of points. Again, baseline rallies start neutrally with about 50-50 prospects
Given the serves and returns in question, one would expect the same player (whoever that is) to win similar lot of both players 2nd serve points
Instead, Med wins 69% of one grounp and 49% of the other. Its odd and no solid explanation for it but at least picture emerging from it points in a particular direction: Starting from neutral position on the baseline, Medvedev is the better player
But this is again somewhat contradicted by Med's first serve points. He serves typically big, but its a slow court and Djokovic is Djokovic when it comes to the return and doesn't miss much. Naturally, some advantage for Med from the serve, but not too much. In that light 59% points won is low for him, given he's apparently the better court player. That + even small advantage accrued through the serve should be good for higher yield of points won
Credit Djoko on the first serve return. It tends to get taken for granted, but very consistent stuff from Djoko. Its a comfy court to return on, but still. Return rate of 76% (or keeping Med down to low 23% unretunred serves) is job well done. Med retains initiative on third ball and from such starting position, 59% points won isn't a good outcome for him and a very good one for Djoko. And doesn't fit what's happening on both players 2nd serve points, but then again, what's happening on the 2nd serve points doesn't fit with itself either
The only readily explainable basic stat is Djoko winning very high 79% first serve points. For starters, he serves exceptionally well. He's got 6 aces to the generally bigger serving Med's 7 (or 11% of first serves, to Med's 14%). When he's not serving aces, he's moving Med around all over the place with precise placment
11/12 Med return errors have been marked FEs - and where he's standing he can comfortably reach what would be wide serves to normal position. By contrast, just 5/13 Djoko return errors are FEs
Second and less importantly, there's the serve-volleying. Djoko's 15/18 or 83% serve-volleying off first serves. Not serve-volleying (sans aces), he's still 24/33 or 73%... both figures well higher than Med's 59% first serve points won (which falls to just 52% sans aces)
In short, however you slice it, Djokovic doing much, much better than Medvedev on first serve points - with both aces and unreturned serves in same ball park. Serve-volleying or not serve-volleying... it doesn't matter
Straight forward conclusions to be derieved -
a) Djoko serving very well (as evidenced by aces and points won)
b) Med returning steadily (as evidenced by high return rate of 79%)
c) ... so Djoko doing very well - starting on baseline or serve-volleying - when he has advantageous starting position
That's quite a mess to start with (and we're just getting started) so brief summary
- Djoko serving very well to give himself strong starting point to rallies - and very good at nursing that through to winning points (covers Djoko's first serve points)... good for Djoko
- Djoko returning steadily to keep in check Med's initiative within reason - and Med not so good at nursing whatever advantage he has to winning points (covers Med's first serve points)... good for Djoko
- Med leading neutrally started rallies - though in combinations that defy simple explanation and with significant variance - on both players 2nd serve points... good for Med
Play - Baseline & Net
Baseline play varies some across the match. Initially, Med outlasts Djoko to win bulk of points. Djoko is more often in lead positon, Med reacting. Djoko doesn't have the power to finish Med off from the back and Med moves well to defend and counter-punch as needed until Djoko gives up the errors. And Med's better at routine, keeping ball in play stuff to win majority of who-blinks-first points (at the start anyway)
Neutral UEs read Djoko 12, Med 11
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