Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Medvedev, US Open final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3 in the US Open final, 2023 on hard court

It was Djokovic’s record extending 24th Slam title, 10th final at the event and third Slam of the year. Medvedev was playing his third final at the event. The two had previously met in the 2021 final, with Medvedev winning

Djokovic won 118 points, Medvedev 97

Djokovic serve-volleyed about a third off the time off first serves

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (59/109) 54%
- 1st serve points won (48/59) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (27/50) 54%
- Aces 4
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/109) 18%

Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (69/106) 65%
- 1st serve points won (49/69) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (14/37) 38%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/106) 21%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 54%
- to BH 42%
- to Body 4%

Medvedev served...
- to FH 55%
- to BH 43%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 78 (43 FH, 35 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (3 FH)
- 11 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (78/100) 78%

Medvedev made...
- 83 (41 FH, 42 BH), including 1 runaround BH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (5 FH)
- 11 Forced (9 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (83/103) 81%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/6 (5 games)
Medvedev 1/3 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 33 (9 FH, 6 BH, 8 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 6 BHV, 3 OH)
Medvedev 23 (10 FH, 5 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)

Djokovic 's FHs - 5 cc (1 return, 1 at net, 1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 3 cc (1 at net - not clean, 1 pass), 2 dtl, 1 drop shot

- 11 from serve-volley points -
- 7 first 'volleys' (3 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 3 BHV)
- 4 second volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

- 1 from a return-approach point, an OH

Medvedev's FHs - 7 cc (3 passes - 1 return, 1 at net), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out at net, 1 longline at net
- BHs - 1 cc at net, 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 drop shot

- 2 FHVs were swinging shot - 1 non-net cc, 1 longline
- 1 OH was on the bounce from the baseline

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 46
- 34 Unforced (14 FH, 20 BH)
- 12 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 51.5

Medvedev 59
- 39 Unforced (17 FH, 22 BH)
- 20 Forced (10 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 36/43 (84%) at net, including...
- 20/22 (91%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 18/20 (90%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching

Medvedev was 16/22 (73%) at net, with...
- 2/2 forced back

Match Report
Conditioning issues threaten to undo Djokovic’s considerable playing advantage, with the typically tough Medvedev taking his legs out in a series of brutally long rallies. Djokovic, down on energy but still masterful off the ground, hangs tough himself and with the one match constant of successful serve-volleying still clicking, edges through the wobbly legged second half to finish in straight sets. Court is quick side of normal

The first time Djoko serve-volleys, Med comes away with a full running sideways and forward FH cc passing winner from edge of court near service line. The last time Djoko serve-volleys, Med lashes out a FH return pass winner

In between, Djoko wins a perfect 20/20 serve-volleying. Med returns hard down the middle - he misses the return, or Djoko’s there to knock away the volley. Med returns side dtl the misses. Med gets the return wide, but Djoko makes the tough volleys. Whatever happens, serve-volley = Djoko winning like clockwork

It’s a fun spice in the first half, when Djoko’s near flawless from the baseline. In second, its necessary for him to keep things even and not fall behind, with Med having better of baseline rallies because Djoko’s legs are rubber (as in, not moving well, not crazily flexible)

Med’s as-far-back-as-possible returning position invites the serve-volleying. Not burdened by line judges (match is electronically called), he’s if anything, even further back than his norm, a danger of knocking his elbows against the back-boards. Normal for him, and not abnormal to suffer the serve-volleying consequences. Still, he’s a slippery returner, who’s generally capable of surprising even from all the way back there with the second shot against the net rusher

Not this day. Some credit to Djoko for flawless volleying. He doesn’t have a UE from 43 approaches. Even just facing routine volleys, that would be something just on can’t-make-’em-all grounds. Not only does he not miss anything, he puts away the volleys. There are a couple of screamers in their too, including a wide, first FH1/2V winner. Beyond that, he’s either done his homework, reads the tricky Med perfectly or is very lucky because he’s always in the right spot to deal with any follow-up passes - including holding his ground in the center down set point in the second set. Med might be begging for it, but he always does and executing is another matter. Carlos Alcaraz didn’t have such a good time in the semis in same situation

Extent to which Med changes things up is looking to go down the line for winner, instead of hard down the middle, where Djoko’s a wall. Misses the returns trying. Bjorn Borg used to return serve-volleyers the same way - return would have to be perfect to get by, but if it did, it was a winner, at cost of server having plenty of time to close down the net and in perfect position to knock away anything less than perfect. Whatever merits the method might have don’t work on this day

And then there’s the staple baseline rallies. From get-go, Djoko’s in top form. Every shot right out of the middle of the racquet, barely an error while always at least pressuring with pace and depth. Despite low unreturned rates, it a quick-ish court and such hitting is in line with one of those undramatic, perfect showings of Djoko at his best. Med reactively counter-punches. Extends rallies so doing (which turns out be crucial), but is strained and under pressure against constant good hitting and gives up errors, is beaten down somewhat, is pushed back to allow Djoko up to net - in short, outplayed

Med does change things up in second set, stepping in more, hitting harder and contesting for control of rallies (as opposed to staying on back foot and being content to react/counter-punch). Doesn’t do badly, while still getting shorter end of stick, and rallies are still long and now, more challenging for Djoko

Long and challenging enough to take Djoko’s legs out. Djoko falls over after another very long rally in game game 7 of second set and is rubbery legged thereafter. He hadn’t a lost a point in 3 service holds for the set upto that stage, while Med’s holds had last 12, 8, 6 and 14 points (last one ongoing at time of the collapse)

Thereafter, much tougher tussle from the back. Med still hitting hard and relatively early, Djoko playing same of style as before, but not moving as well, more prone to error (and more prone than Med), not serving as strongly and occasionally, bailing on rally with drop shot (also, serve-volleying a little more, though that remains perfectly successful). Med leading rallies more often than not

 

[Waspsting]

Odds would probably favour Med at this stage, particularly with likelihood of Djoko getting worse as match goes on. The odd choke, or against-general-trend routine errors by Med at a couple of crucial junctures in the tiebreak and in getting broken in third set help finalize the result

In years gone by, Djoko was apt to hit out wildly when he was down physically or/and mentally, going for crazy winners from out of nowhere. None of here. He doesn’t even rush into playing 1-2s. He plays for more cc to open court, dtl into that open court to finish combos, but if not getting the ball he wants (which is usually), plays more hard cc shots until he does

From sound, almost perfect to sound-based, edging towards and looking to create attacking chances is extent in change in Djoko’s game with loss of conditioning. A big difference from wildly aggressive. And he keeps moving as needed, with plenty of it needed, though not very well

Worth noting is that by middle of third set, Med isn’t moving too well either, though that’s just the normal wear of playing hard baseline tennis for 2 hours. Second set lasts over an hour and half. Djoko with the wobbles might steal the eye, but all that tough action takes it toll on Med too

Serve & Return
Unreturned serves - Djoko 18%, Med 21%

One of the most surprising things in the match. Its not a slow court and those numbers are particularly low. Just very good returning from both players

Med standing so far back is apt to return at so high a rate. Returns with fair authority and other than getting slaughtered against serve-volleys, keeping freebies down that low is worth cost of leaving Djoko with moderately good starting position for rallies. (Unsuccessful) adjustments he makes against serve-volleying were outlined earlier

Djoko serving bulk 54% to FH. He mostly serve-volleys out wide in deuce court, apparently, wary of precision of Med’s BH return

Returning from Djoko is even better. Normal position and thumped returns - his usual of style and exceptional of quality even for him to return at that high a rate, with that much force. Med winning just 38% second serve points is one result of that

Med not great at serving the unreturnably wide first serves, but its still a hefty serve at 65% in count, that he could expect to dominate behind. His low second serve points won is product of both being outplayed and Djoko’s calm, booming returning. With half the match played with Med having better from baseline, but still with that low second serve points won speaks to how well Djoko returns

In third set, when Med’s physical advantage is large, he wins just 1/7 second serve points and 4/12 when being outplayed by fresh Djoko in first set

Djoko not going for aces. When he wants the quick point, he serve-volleys. 18/20 first serve-volleying is a good substitute for aces

First serve ace rate - Djoko 7%, Med 9% (Med’s goes up to 12% counting couple of service winners), with neither serving badly… well done by both on return, particularly Djoko, since Med’s serving is normal in terms of looking or aces (not particularly looking for them, but as they come up with a serve like his), unlike Djoko who more looks for a good, healthy serve (and trying to ace Med where he’s standing makes that a good alternative)

Play - Baseline & Net
Winners - Djoko 33, Med 23
Errors Forced - Djoko 20, Med 12
UEs - Djoko 34, Med 39

Would be great figures for Djoko in ordinary circumstances, doubly so given how he’s physically not all there half the match

Even more telling, UE breakdown -
- Neutral - Djoko 7, Med 23
- Attacking - Djoko 15, Med 10
- Winner Attempts - Djoko 12, Med 6

That looks like a pointedly aggressive showing from Djoko at least, and maybe even a wild one. Its not. He plays excellent, clinical baseline tennis and simply, doesn’t miss trading strong groundies with much better-than-numbers-look Med

Rallies are long, with lots of 20+ shot rallies, and a few over 30 even, especially in first part. That’s why Djoko’s gets gassed

Through all that, Djoko hitting hard off both sides, barely making an error and able to attack after drawing weak replies from Med
Med’s neutral UEs are somewhat beaten-out of him, relatively difficult for UEs and a credit to opponents hitting

Post loss of conditioning, Djoko yields the errors more freely. He’s little more attacking in looking to open court with powerful, slightly wider than before cc shots, but rallies neutrally too. Holds up, doesn’t blink and most errors turn out to be attacking ones - which he’s balanced and wise in going for, given alternative of being beaten down himself or runaround and or just endure longer rallies

BH cc rallies make up bulk. The 2 share 42 UEs off that side, to 31 FHs. Mostly Djoko’s choice to lead with it. Med in true counter-puncher style, plays along though one imagines it would be his first choice too. Play doesn’t support that and Med’s equally happy to play FHs too. His wide cc’ng is if anything, better than Djoko’s. He has 4 FH cc winners (on top of 3 passes), 2 pure ones (also a return, a shot at net and cc based one). With Djoko stronger hitter on the FH, Med’s angling his shots that much better to stay even

FH figures are close all around
- Winners - Djoko 9, Med 10
- UEs - Djoko 14, Med 17

BH UEs are even closer (Djoko 20, Med 22). Good cc rallies, Med blinking more and under more pressure due to Djoko hitting harder. Amidst that, some of the best slicing I’ve seen from Djoko, with ball keeping low, potentially disrupting Med (it rarely ends up doing so, but limits his options in responding)

As mentioned earlier, Med switches from counter-punching to playing same way Djoko does in second set (stepping in, hitting hard off both sides). Djoko remains harder hitter upto his collapse. Thereafter, he has to be pointedly hard hitting to be so when directly looking to draw weak ball or open court (as opposed to just matter of factly), otherwise, Med has power advantage on majority stock stuff

With no forecourt UEs, all of Djoko’s 15 attacking and 12 winner attempt UEs are groundstrokes. For 10 ground-to-ground winners and less than 15 errors forced in baseline rallies, he hasn’t done too well on those fronts. Those would be the powerful wide cc shots and dtl point enders. Admittedly, against tough opposition - Med not easy to force errors from and the winners attempt misses justify Djoko not going wild looking for them. Luxuries he’s bought with is serve-volleying success

Rallying to net points - Djoko 15/20, Med 16/22
Ground FEs - Djoko 10, Med 18
Non serve-volley, volley winners - both 7

Putting the above together, both drawing about the same number of passing errors, the extra FEs Djoko forces would be in baseline rallies

One of the differences between the players in general - a great strength of Djoko’s, and a shortcoming of Med’s - is ability to force errors in baseline rallies. Doing so is a great sign - being aggressive, without taking much risk. Djoko generally does so with long line change-ups. Here, higher lot would be from extra powerful or wide shots in cc rallies. Med is often a rock from the back, not hitting a lot of winners isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but his tendency to to not force many errors speaks to problematic non-aggression, when he’s facing players who can hold up from the back (which admittedly, isn’t many, but highly pertinent when talking about a top player and in the US Open final)

As with serve-volleying, Djoko very good in the forecourt. He comes in at just right times, and he’s always in right place to volley. Med comes in after serve gives him a big leg up. He doesn’t look good up there, with brick hands a sense of not knowing what he’s doing, but the commanding approaches are enough

2 FEs for both in forecourt (there are no UEs). When Djoko finally misses a volley (the other is a half-volley), comes as surprise. An indicator of how good he’s been up there

Finally, the ‘choking’. UEs aren’t necessarily sign of bad play, provided rallies are long and tough. Med is tough and does extend rallies and plays better than his numbers indicate. He does blink up quick errors at crucial times - to end the second set tie-break, to get broken in third set. 1 against-trend point doesn’t make a pattern, and its folly to label such a choke. There is a pattern emerging though overall in timing of Med missing routine balls quickly, coinciding with crucial times

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
Good set of tennis to open up. Djoko has better of it, making serve-volleying hay off Med’s extreme return position and Med not serving with damaging vigour. The lack of vigour leads to some long, bruising rallies and as early as game 5, Djoko’s winded after a particularly long one

Djoko knocks away a BH dtl winner and 2 aces to hold to 30 to open the match. Med is standing so far back that one can’t see him as he disappears behind the backboard to try to reach down the middle ace

Then breaks to love - beginning and ending with third ball UEs from Med of either wing, with a double fault and a Djoko FH dtl winner in between

Med’s got 0-30 in the next game, punishing a poor drop shot and coming away with a running FH cc passing winner against Djoko’s first serve-volley. Djoko repeats the trick, this time going to FH and comes away with a BHV winner next point, before finishing with another ace for 3-0

Djoko’s in a spot of bother after missing couple BH winner attempts next go around too, the second of which finishes a long rally that has Djoko struggling for breath after and down 15-30, but more serve-volleys and net play see him through. And Med survives 2 break/set points in holding 12 point game for 3-5 before Djoko serves it out

Djoko’s had better of set, beyond the break, largely due to his serve-volleying, but he does look less fresh

Med changes tacks to more aggressive in the second set, stepping in more and hitting harder, looking to command play. He’s not bad at it but all that work is just barely getting him to hold, while Djoko holds his first 3 games to love, with 2 net points in each one

Med by contrast takes 12, 8 and 6 points to hold, though he hasn’t faced break point

He does 4th time of asking, which he wipes out with a third ball, swinging FHV winner (not a serve-volley, but moving forward after drawing weak return). The game, like others before it, feature long, hard hitting, gruelling rallies with moderate moving-opponent-around. After another such point, Djoko falls to the ground from weariness

That changes the match dynamic as Med goes on to hold after 14 points. Djoko doesn’t move well afterwards, his serve isn’t as strong either and Med gets better of baseline rallies. Djoko’s hitting though, remains strong, though he’s more prone to error and occasionally, bails on a rally with a silly drop shot

Djoko’s next 3 holds last 14, 6 and 14 points and he faces a break point in 2 of the games. Both saved via good serve-volleys. First game, he hits a very unlikely, wide first FH1/2V winner down break point, which he follows up with a beautiful stop BHV winner before another trip to net gets him the hold

Serving to take set into tiebreak, Djoko adds double faults to his problems and he’s down break and now, set point too. Serve-volleys, gets wide volley off that Med reaches and hammers cc, just where Djoko’s held his position to block BHV into open court. Still not out of the woods, and he needs strong serves to do that

Tiebreak. Med moves to 2-0, with Djoko missing a powerful BH cc. Let down 1 from Med when he misses an attacking line third ball FH against a decent return to hand min-break back. There’s a spectacular point which ends with both players at net, initiated by a Djoko drop shot that Med wins. Djoko responds with a brutal series of BH cc’s to win the next point and moves to 6-5, still on serve

Med misses a routine BH in a short rally to give up set. Let down 2

Djoko’s still not fluent in third set, but getting better. And not getting worse. Its Med whose level drops a more. Second set took over 100 minutes, and would wear anyone down some

Excellent BHV winner by Djoko in game against a point blank pass from Med. Another example of Djoko reading Med’s game well. From Djoko leading 2-1, there are 3 breaks on the trot

Med’s broken to 15 with 4 neutral UEs (2 FH, 2 BH), in short rallies. The chokey stuff
Djoko’s broken right back to same score - double fault and 3 ground UEs, 2 of them third balls - 1 against a good return, with the non-third ball against a deep ball
And Djoko breaks rigth back and this ones fair game. BH dtl winner by Djoko set up by a series of powerful BH cc’s start, deep return draws not easy UE and on break point, Med misses a third ball BH dtl winner attempt, his being quite under the gun in the game

Djoko serves for the match, and his first point is belted for a FH cc return-pass winner. A little late for Med and Djoko comes in after strong serve to FHV winner next point. Med misses a routine FH awhile later to bring down the curtain

Summing up, good match and a very interesting one, with implications for both players.

Fresh Djokovic’s at his strongest from the baseline - hard hitting, while barely missing a ball and even slicing well to keep the ball low when he wants - and expert at net (both in coming in, how well he volleys and most of all, reading opponents passing directions). He however, has a stamina problem which sees his legs go out relatively early and his sucking wind long before that too

Plays a gutsy and smart game post conditioning loss, contrary to years gone by when he’d hit out wildly, but its better not to get worn down in first place. This seems to just be how it is now - he was winded in Wimbledon final, winded in early round French Open match, all kinds of out of sorts in Cincinnati final (admittedly, that looks more like something wrong with on the day rather than fitness)

Medvedev tough from the baseline, even when being outhit and showing ability to do some commanding hitting of his own when he feels forced to. The exaggerated backward return position works to get returns in play, but leaves him a sitting duck against serve-volleying, which despite his opponent’s fine net game, he deserves some discredit for. Serve also isn’t the weapon it could and has been in the past, though again, opponent returns very well

And a few crucial let downs or ‘chokes’

 

[7thKingSlam]

It was a really good match looking back, somewhat overlooked I think because people were generally disappointed that Alcaraz was not playing Djokovic in the final. Medvedev put in what he calls a "12/10" performance in that semifinal but definitely took a step back in the final.

I remember at the time thinking that Med probably wins this match if he converts in the second set, especially the set point he had at 6-5 AD-out where he had a backhand with Djoko at the net. He goes cross, Djoko guesses right and hits a volley winner. Great hands by Djokovic, somewhat unlucky for Medvedev. He's on the dead sprint so I guess going crosscourt is the predictable move; he would've needed a great shot to get it by Djokovic.

I think looking back I was wrong for a couple reasons:
1. We tended to underestimate the stamina of Djokovic/Nadal, even Federer when they were in their mid-late 30s. Djokovic in particular would often look winded (even in his prime) but be just fine over 5 sets. Sometimes his level dipped but would come back stronger an hour later when he catches a second wind. We fell for it at AO2022 when Medvedev played very physical and people thought there was no way Nadal's body could hold up for 5 sets even if he made a comeback from down 0-2. Picture this scenario: Medvedev loses the second set tiebreak at AO2022, then loses the match in 4/5. I think everyone would've said, "had Med won that 2nd set tiebreak, Nadal wouldn't have had a chance." Djokovic would've been 1-1 if the lost that 2nd set.

And on the other hand, I think we overestimated Med's stamina a tad in his prime. His physicality was among the best in the world, but he never showed he was fatigued even when he was. In both 5-setters vs Rafa, Nadal looked the much more tired player. Medvedev looked just fine both times, yet in the press conference he admitted he was exhausted and his movement speed did slow. Would the belief from being at 1-1 vs Djokovic help, rather than down 0-2? Sure. But then my next point:

2. Djokovic's serve-and-volley play was so effective and would get him easy holds, while Medvedev's grinding was bound to give way. Djokovic may have been the better bet to outlast Medvedev even if from the eye test that doesn't seem obvious at all. In a 5th set, you'd trust Djokovic to hold serve over Medvedev because he had a simple game plan to cheap points. I'd also add that while Med was serving far better in 2023 than he has been nowadays, he wasn't quite getting the cheap points the way he was in 2019-21 (might just be eye test failing me and Djokovic having a great return performance though).

In reality Med probably should've changed his return position, but the fact that the match was dead even through 2 sets tricked him into sticking with his current position. How embarrassing would it be to be locked into a tight battle with good chances to win, but then make a drastic change that leads to getting blown out?

 

[nolefam_2024]

100 minutes long second set. I jumped off my Sofa when Nole won it. It was incredible mental and physical toughness on display.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Prime Sinner would have smoked both